Tuesday November 29 2022 Forecast (8:49AM)


High pressure controls our weather today, keeping us dry and pleasant by late November standards, but it won’t be a day of 100% sunshine across the region. First, a little ocean moisture has resulted in some broken clouds a couple thousand feet above the surface and these have migrated into parts of eastern MA and southern NH as well, interrupting the early-day sun. These will hang around for a while before they diminish. Also, an increase in high level clouds will be gradually taking place from west to east as the day goes on, so our sun will be limited. Still, a nice late November day. Things change tonight as clouds thicken up and this leads to a windy and eventually wet Wednesday, albeit quite mild as we’ll have a southerly flow ahead of a cold front, parented from low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes. The core of our wet weather in the form of widespread showers, and even potential thunder, will move in during the afternoon and exit during the evening. Once the front sweeps through, we’ll switch the wind and introduce a shot of chilly air with quite a bit of wind to open the month of December on Thursday, before things settle down on Friday as high pressure moves in. On yesterday’s update, my indication was that high pressure would hang on through Saturday with fair weather, but there’s some question about that now as the trend on the guidance has been to speed up the arrival and passage of the next system to that day. Although it does look like a fairly benign frontal passage with more clouds and wind shift activity than any meaningful precipitation – just a rain shower threat. I’ll keep an eye on this to see if I’ve jumped the gun on speeding up the timing, but for the moment plan on a slightly unsettled start to the first weekend of December.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 31-38. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers arriving from west to east during the day, most numerous and heaviest during the afternoon. Highs 50-57, occurring late in the day. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH by day’s end.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy in the evening widespread rain showers and possible thunderstorms, followed by breaking clouds and clearing overnight. Temperatures may spike in the 55-62 range early then falling to 40-47 overnight. Wind S 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH evening, strongest South Coast to South Shore, shifting to W 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning then falling into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Based on current timing and pattern expectations we see one more system pass to our northwest through the Great Lakes around mid period. This would result in fair and milder weather early in the period here, an interruption of wet weather briefly, then a fair and cooler end to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Eyeing a pattern change in this period, triggered by a blocking high pressure ridge in the Greenland area. I don’t think this takes place like the flip of a switch but over a period of days and in these transitions we can see some unsettled weather – far too soon to determine liquid vs combo vs frozen. Door would be open for one or two such episodes as we head toward mid month.

60 thoughts on “Tuesday November 29 2022 Forecast (8:49AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. I hope you and your son are improving.

    It is nice to have sun today. After completing outside lights Saturday, half were our Sunday night thanks to either a mouse or bunny that chewed through at least one wire. Iโ€™ll be able to get out to see the damage now that rain has stopped

    1. Since I know many don’t wander to the covid post, I’ll give a quick update on my son and myself here…

      Me: Still testing + as of Monday night. I’ll re-test tomorrow. Feel good now! All symptoms gone except lingering sinus issues which is normal for me even with a common cold. Fever free since midnight Saturday night / Sunday morning. I do have a cough, but it’s only occasional and more active when I’ve been lying down for a while. Lungs are actually pretty clear – I think most of it’s just being triggered by the gold old post-nasal drip thing.

      My son: Became fever-free 24 hours ago and symptom-wise he’s really down to just sinuses and a lingering cough. He will be re-testing today at some point.

      Going forward: Just waiting for our negative tests. We have a several-days-delayed decoration project to get to, and we will. He’s due to perform with his choir group at a local place for a holiday concert on Sunday while I run the live stream AV equip. We still have to confirm that we will be OK to do this. Fingers crossed.

      Beyond that we just launch into the heart of the holiday season ready to enjoy it with lots of music, movies, specials, walks, lights, etc. – all the usual great stuff we love to do and see. ๐Ÿ™‚

        1. So far, anybody who has been around us leading up to our + tests and isolation remain negative. I think if that’s the case in 2 more days we can sound the all-clear.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Will we actually transition to Winter? We shall see. I remain
    in a waiting state. ๐Ÿ™‚ There is a long way to go.

    1. I’d guess it’ll take place sometime around the first day of winter. Might match the calendar, actually. ๐Ÿ™‚

      Actually, a relatively lengthy process IMO.

  3. Thanks TK. Hope you guys are feeling better. Do you have a ballpark estimate on potential rainfall and wind gusts in metro west tomorrow?

    1. (See my above update in a reply to Vicki’s comment). ๐Ÿ™‚

      Rainfall estimate: 0.50-1.00 inch.
      Wind gusts: 25-40 MPH. A quick gusts over 40 is possible with a convective band just ahead of the front in the early evening.

  4. I really hope the fad of naming winter storms comes to an end soon. Thanks to my 15 second pass by of TWC this morning I’ll be singing songs by Beck all day.

    Not that I dislike Beck, he just wasn’t on my playlist for today………. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  5. Visible satellite loop is showing the trend of reversal on the marine stratus layer. It’s forward progress has now reversed and these clouds should start to retreat the region from Southwest to Northeast over the next few hours.

  6. Thanks TK and hope you have a great birthday Philip !

    Here are those winter storm names for 22-23 from TWC:


    From the TWC:

    To be named, a winter storm has to meet, or eventually meet, at least one of the following criteria:

    – NWS winter storm, blizzard, or ice storm warnings covering a population of at least 2 million.

    – NWS winter storm, blizzard, or ice storm warnings covering at least an area of 400,000 square kilometers, or slightly larger than the state of Montana.

    It specifically says that Lake Effect events do not meet the criteria to be names.

    1. Maybe so, but let me remind you that the cherries don’t pay
      all that much on the slot machines. ๐Ÿ™‚

  7. Got all my pictures from my trip to Belfast up online.


    Lowell lost to UMass 2-1 o the 1st day, but on Day 2, fell behind Dartmouth 3-0 in the 1st period and came back to win in OT 4-3.

    Along with visiting the Titanic Museum and the Belfast Christmas market at City Hall, we took a city tour and wandered around parts of the city, visiting several pubs along the way.

  8. Nail-boter in Qatar – game between the U.S. and Iran. As it stands, U.S. will go through and Iran is out. It’s 1-0 for the U.S. But, if Iran ties the game, Iran goes through and the U.S. is out.

      1. If U.S. advances it will play the Netherlands. Divided loyalties for me, though, as I told my son, I’ll root for America.

  9. U.S. advance.

    What a thrilling, edge-of-your-seat, finish.

    Both teams gave it their all.

    Somewhat controversial non-call at the very end. I did not think it was worthy of a VAR review to see if it was a penalty. Iranians begged to differ. It was close, but Matt Turner (U.S. goalie) was clearly going for the ball. He did let it go through his legs, uncharacteristically, but a defender backed him up (plus the ball dribbled through his legs, so it wasn’t moving fast).

  10. Thank you, TK. Iโ€™m glad youโ€™re feeling better. (I still rapid-tested + on day 10 back in May โ€” but it really does eventually turn around!)

    Happy Birthday, Philip. One of my grandchildren shares it. ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Thanks Jean. If Iโ€™m not mistaken, today is TKโ€™s daughterโ€™s birthday as well. If Iโ€™m wrong then my apologies in advance TK. I thought I saw it posted here at one time or another. ๐Ÿ™‚

  11. I got my second booster today at the hospital , so that makes 4 shots now . I hope this second booster goes better then the first . Lot of Xmas decorations outside here & we are preparing for the wind tomorrow.

    1. Iโ€™ve had 5 shots. The last one was in mid October. It was the Moderna which gave me a slight reaction (flushed) for about 24-36 hours. When you get a reaction itโ€™s actually a good sign.

  12. Thanks, TK…

    I think I count four or five Tornado Warnings, four in central and southern Mississippi and one large box in northeastern Louisiana.

    I am not frightened by much, but nighttime severe weather can be one.

  13. Although it sometimes over-produces, the 18z HRRR has a wind gust of 56 knots (64 mph) at my home this time tomorrow.

    Trampoline and Outdoor Holiday Inflatable Warnings now hoisted! ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Oh nooooo. Olaf and frosty are on the deck beside the trampoline

      The BELIEVE sign my youngest made years ago blew down yesterday and we left it down having seen the forecast.

      1. You should see all of the air blows here Vicki & the big PVC my son built years ago that puts on a magnificent light show

        1. Cool. There is a house around the corner that has a ton. We moved from air blows to a Teak Isle manger with a few added manger figures and also the mom, dad and baby family.

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