DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)
We’ll be riding a temperature rollercoaster but with an overall mild pattern as we move from November to December during the coming days. First, behind a departing low that brought us some Sunday rainfall comes a trough and cold front with lots of clouds and maybe a rain shower for a portion of today before we start to clear out. While it will be on the mild side today expect a gusty wind, which will continue into tonight, transporting slightly colder air into the region. Tuesday is a fair weather day but cooler albeit with much less wind. And then while it warms up, the wind will be back along with the wet weather chance as the next system quickly moves in from the west on Wednesday, a frontal boundary from a low pressure area moving quickly through the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada. This exits later Wednesday night and December opens with 2 cooler days, a windy one on Thursday behind the departing low, and a more tranquil one on Friday as high pressure builds in.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a passing rain shower possible this morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers increasingly likely. Highs 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible especially during the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with widespread rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm during the evening. Breaking clouds / clearing overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning then falling into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)
High pressure brings fair weather December 3. The primary storm track, with a ridge of high pressure in the Southeast US, is likely to be Great Lakes to southeastern Canada. Two such systems are being watched for this period, one passing by with rain showers for our area on December 4 and another near the end of the period. Some guidance has had that end-of-period system as a little further south with a little more marginal temperatures here, but I’m staying with the milder scenario for now.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)
I can’t say this with high confidence yet but a little bit of a shift toward colder may be underway during this period, but not without some battle between that and the mild air supplied by the Southeast US ridge. A little early to work out any details of unsettled weather – precipitation types – but take note that the pattern may be on the active side as we approach mid December.