Thursday March 9 2023 Forecast (7:08AM)

110 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)

One more day on the western edge of the ocean storm today with clouds and maybe a passing sprinkle or flurry, then it heads away and high pressure builds in for a more tranquil and sunnier Friday. Low pressure makes a run at our region for early in the weekend but will be deflected southeastward by what remains of the block in the atmosphere, so while its cloud canopy invades the sky Friday night and Saturday, most of its precipitation will be shunted to our south, only clipping the South Coast. An area of high pressure will make the second half of the weekend brighter. During this time another storm system will be crossing the country and ready to enter our region during Monday. This one carries more potential with it to be a stronger impact storm for our region, but since it’s going to be arriving on day 5 the forecast for it will left very generalized for now, as it won’t be until we get closer to the event that we can sort out details. So in the words of NWS Boston (from a recent discussion), it’s “probalistic” over “deterministic” at this point. And another reminder, EST becomes EDT at 2 a.m. Sunday when we move the clocks forward 1 hour (unless they do so automatically of course)!

TODAY: Cloud/sun intervals with a passing brief snow or rain shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Some light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early morning light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 40-47. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. Late-day rain/snow possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)

Potential / likely moderate to possibly major storm system impacting the region early in the period, may be slow to exit with unsettled conditions into the middle of the week before drier weather arrives. May have to watch for another system by the end of the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)

Confidence obviously lower here but will watch for yet another storm system around the time we enter the first few days of spring following the Vernal Equinox on March 20. Temperatures below to near normal.

110 thoughts on “Thursday March 9 2023 Forecast (7:08AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    The only model showing snow for the Monday system is the gfs . So what does that tell us. Imo, the trend is for rain for eastern sections. Could it snow? sure.
    Will it, I doubt it Chances of gfs being correct, near 0 , but not 0.

    1. Doesn’t tell us anything since it’s really too soon for deterministic solutions over probalistic ones. šŸ™‚

      1. OK, I expected something like that. We shall see. Frankly, I don’t like the looks of it. I hope it changes. šŸ™‚

  2. Thanks TK
    Though early next week looks like an interior snow event. In these situations I am close yet so far away from snow.

  7. Philip I am in western CT but when the low takes a track like the Euro is showing areas north of me get the snow. We call it a northwest hills special as they get the snow rest of CT it rains.

    1. Well, donā€™t give up being 5 days out. You have a better shot than I do here in Boston. My early thoughts for me is mostly rain to snow at the end.

      1. If that. Any snow at the end is likely not to be much. First precip due to arrive Monday PM sometime. Euro has
        it track over West-Central MA as a fairly potent system at 977MB.

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2023030900&fh=132

        GFS, on the other hand is a different story… consideranly weaker at 996mb, but farther East with some HEAVY SNOW.

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030906&fh=117&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

        What’s it gonna be boy?

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C11MzbEcHlw

    1. Hope so!

      If they can even partially contain Connor McDavid then they have a great shot. šŸ™‚

  9. For the snow lovers on the blog maybe Mother Nature will balance out for a snowy winter 2023-2024.

  10. Thank you, TK. If gut snow is ok, I think Iā€™ll go with angel snow to celebrate a storm on our sonā€™s day of birth. Iā€™m not sure Iā€™ll hope for a storm similar to the one 13 days later. It was destructive.

  12. I’m a little concerned that even though the weekend system is missing, its fairly intense.

    Its going to generate plenty of large swells.

    The next system is on its heels.

    Its going to have an already worked up ocean to further stir.

    This was a problem the coast endured 3-4 March’s ago, when we had those 3 storms in a row. By the 3rd storm, the waves were going OVER some of the houses. The ocean never had the chance to settle between storms.

  13. I’m going to throw this reminder out everywhere on social media and the blog too…

    When I use the term “storm threat” regarding next week, NOBODY should be assuming p-types are implied.

    Deterministic details are not included yet.

      1. Sadly, yes.
        Just today, someone said to me “so I heard we’re getting 20-30 inches of snow next week.”

        I rolled my eyes and said “Search your memory for the last time we had a conversation triggered by a statement like that. Hint: It was recently. That will save us both time!” (Said with a smile of course – they are used to me being rather blunt about such things). šŸ˜‰

  15. To me that was like looking at the EURO showing an amped up system of 12-24 inches of snow 8 days out. I am going to go with what the other guidance is showing of 1-2 inches tomorrow night into Saturday for my area.

  16. The 12z GFS, as of hr 93, doesn’t have a closed off low at 500 mb in the northern stream in the Great Lakes vicinity.

    Guessing its going to evolve to a not impressive early next week system.

  20. 12z UKMET reminds of what the media called SNOWICANE back in February 2010 where BOS had heavy rain and NY had a snowstorm.

  21. So much has to go right even in a “regular” winter for Tuesday to pan out. Layer on a lousy snow winter where virtually everything has gone wrong and I don’t know know how you can put above a 5% chance of a major snowstorm without even looking at models. Like, it would have to be an outlier event to the winter we’ve had. Yeah, sure, anything can happen but I’m talking probabilities. And I bet they are VERY low. Like nowhere near even 50% IMHO.

    1. This forecast by competent mets is based on the weather pattern upcoming, which is different than the weather pattern we’ve had.

      And it’s important to note, that while the potent storm impacting the region is fairly high confidence, the precipitation type is TBD for each area.

  24. On pivotal today, the hi-res Euro is running a little behind the “plain” Euro.

    The latter is at hr 120 and its suggesting a 978 mb low just south of Nantucket.

    1. now, 24 hrs later, its drifted north, slightly offshore eastern New England. 850mb looks chilly. 976 mb

      This would be fun !!

  25. 12z EURO After starting with rain brings a change to snow for a good chunk of SNE on Tuesday.

  26. I know its about the snow and I don’t mean that sarcastically, I promise.

    But in the projection above, the snow would not be the storm’s biggest hazzard.

  27. 969 mb low pressure system that close to the coast is not good
    UKMET has 967 mb low pressure system further offshore. Hopefully it is just the EURO over amping a storm system.

  28. Euro is interesting for sure. Wish it showed more SNOW, but it doesn’t. Plenty enough, but not the biggie.

    We shall see.

    1. There is room for this to change in a big way.

      UKMET has 967 mb
      Euro has 969 Mb

      That is pretty impressive. Now let’s see IF we get anything even close to that. šŸ™‚

  29. Thank you TK!
    As much as we are focusing on the storm for us next week which could prove to be pretty potent, I keep thinking about what is to take place around the same time out in California. Iā€™m concerned for the folks out there who have feet and feet of snow on their roofs and with the prospect of inches rain in the higher elevations this time, the real threat for catastrophic and widespread roof collapses among one of the many other hazards they will be dealing with. I know the building codes are different in that part of the country but I donā€™t think they were made for snow loads like these. Maybe Wx Watcher has some in site on this and if they are legitimately concerned about this.

    2. So true SC. Itā€™s heartbreaking out there. Macā€™s twin and family even in the Bay Area where snow isnā€™t a problem have had damage from flooding. They have been in the home for decades and never had an issue.

    1. San Francisco areas are expecting more flooding. I believe They have a flood watch and gale warning.

  31. Tweet of the day from Ryan Hanrahan
    I’ve been complaining to anyone who would listen about how boring the winter had been to forecast with nothing going on. Today is an embarrassment of riches in the weather office

  32. Indeed it has, from one extreme to the other. They are used to big snows out there, but not to this magnitude.

    1. The real problem is the state has been in a long term drought. Not only have we added a wet pattern, but we’ve added cold – due to the stable pattern of the winter keeping it like that out there most of the time (while we were persistently mild with minor brief interruptions). Droughts often end big…

    1. Probably because at this point it isn’t going to do much to pay attention to an over-forecast feature that many days in advance on one model run that will probably not show up on the next one. šŸ˜‰ ECMWF has been known for antics such as this.

      If that feature is showing up within 60 hours of occurrence on short range guidance – then we’ll talk about it. šŸ™‚

  35. What I’m finding around the web today is something I’ve spoken of many times.

    All winter long, “fake” mets with their play pages have given big winter storm forecasts that haven’t panned out because the pattern was never really supportive of them and they were just too busy finding bad model forecasts of big snow so they could post them and get the rush of being the “newsbreaker”. Silly & stupid.

    Now, competent forecasters (actual mets) are giving a pretty solid forecast of a significant storm (storm, not necessarily “snowstorm”), and so many people just scoff or laugh like we’re the ones who have done it all season. Too funny. šŸ˜‰

    Believe me, the frustration is 100% warranted.

    …………………………………………………………………………………………….

    Back to more desirable topics. I’ve reviewed the 12z data and I make no changes at this point. Will start adding a bit of deterministic detail with tomorrow’s update, and add more as we go through the weekend.

    And on a more exciting note – I’ll be at tonight’s Bruins game. My one and only for this season. Go B’s!

    1. It is warranted. If someone wants to live by apps and other nonsense, thatā€™s fine. Until they start criticizing meteorologists

      1. Sad thing is, some of them do equate poor apps and real mets as the same thing. šŸ™ But not much we can do about that!

        1. Iā€™m afraid it is more than some. Sometimes, I try to explain to folks I know. Sometimes, I just change the subject. I donā€™t engage with those I donā€™t know.

  36. Looking at the 3km NAM loop of the projected radar for the early weekend system – this is the type of forecast that in the pre-model era would likely just extrapolate a solid area of snow to the west into our region for a “snowy Saturday” forecast, only to have it not really snow at all (except some overnight / early morning stuff mostly to the south and southwest).

    We’ve come a long way since then…

  38. 18z GFS is boring for early next week, no need to waste oneā€™s time looking ā€¦ā€¦ šŸ™‚

  39. Nothing is set in stone and things could change even a day prior to a potential system. This one is a perfect example where I am where it looked to far south now edging just far enough north to deliver advisory level snowfall to my area Fri night into Sat AM/.

    1. I hope that works out for your area tomorrow night !

      I was joking about the 18z GFS above cause itā€™s a good hit. Itā€™s snow maps clobber but itā€™s snow depth change maps bring in common sense.

  40. Tom until the 0z runs from last night came in it looked like a coating -2 inches and now for western CT advisory level snowfall.

  41. Ok. I think Iā€™ve got it.

    Euro is overamplified.

    GFS is way too cold.

    In other words, next Tuesday will be sunny and 45F.

  45. Mark will see what happens. This looked like nothing until the 0z runs came in last night. I have some doubts. The EURO ensembles early next week showing a 50% -70% shot at a foot of snow where I am. I am not buying that.

    1. I am bullish on both storm threats. Brand new weather pattern. 10″ of snow here last week from three different systems and I think we will pick up a bit here tomorrow night (though not as much as you) and potentially a significant amount on Tuesday. It does not appear Tuesday will be the last threat either.

      Saving the best for last…

      1. I am happy if that storm materializes it is early next week. I am traveling up to Albany NY for the NCAA Tournament next Friday.

        1. Yes likewise. We are flying out to Big Sky Montana for 4 days of skiing on Wednesday. Get it through here Tuesday and I will be happy!

    1. Five days out against a largely snowless winter, thatā€™s just way to early for that. Like what are the probabilities? Less than 20%? Less than 10%

      1. Totally different pattern and set up here than anything we have seen this winter thus far.

        Have not had across the board model support (both operational and ensembles) for a large coastal storm at this time range at all this season.

        And keep in mind we are actually 4 days out from potential start time, not 5.

          1. Inquiring minds want to know. At what point before a potential storm do you personally trust the models and do you have a model you prefer? šŸ™‚

  48. Thanks TK.

    Iā€™m away at a training course in the San Diego area this week so somewhat disconnected from the day-to-day weather picture. But man, the situation in California is rough. WPC has upgraded to a ā€œhigh riskā€ in their excessive rainfall outlook for tomorrow. These are very rare (~ 5 per year) but account for about 80-90% of flood-related damages and fatalities. And thatā€™s just the flooding aspect; thereā€™s also going to be big issues from roof collapses due to the weight of rain on snow, as well as simply the snow load itself in the highest elevations (~9,000 ft+), since for those elevations this will fall as an additional 5-15 feet of snow on top of whatā€™s already an enormous snowpack. Just crazy stuff.

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

    Closer to home for you all – definitely a classic Norā€™easter early next week. Donā€™t count out eastern New England for big time snow, although the better odds for it will probably be inland. But still a lot tbd on that one. Definitely going to be an impactful storm thoughā€¦

    1. Thank you for the analysis WxWatcher, my thoughts exactly on the structural integrity issues with the weight of all of this snow. I have a feeling that this will be the news headlines in the coming weeks. The only positive will be the end of the severe drought, but unfortunately at a huge cost to lives and property, like TK stated that droughts end in a big way.

      1. Yep.

        Itā€™s a really fickle climate. The rain is now so excessive, and the soil moistures and water tables so high, itā€™s becoming likely the state will be spared a bad fire season this year. Maybe even the next couple years since the coming El Nino will favor at least another year or two of wetter than normal conditions. Itā€™ll take that long to dry out, even if the faucet does shut off (much different than the East, where those wet/dry fluctuations are more rapid). But sooner or later, you have to pay the piper, and when it dries out again, thereā€™ll be a tremendous amount of excess fuel to burn. These are natural cycles (with an extra kick from climate change, to be sure) but made destructive primarily by our bad habits within the wildland interface.

  49. Tweet from Anthony Masiello

    The nor’easter next week has a nice convective start, with latent heat zonally oriented from whatever gets going over Gulf States, nestled in a dual jet divergence structure. The players are there for bombs away and some QG height tendency magic.

  50. Rilyn Mac (who is six now if anyone can believe it) just came downstairs to get something. I sent her back upstairs with a message. This is how it played out.

    Rilyn: nana said weā€™re going to have a norā€™easter!
    Older brother Tristan: a what??
    Mom: a norā€™easter, a big snow storm..
    Tristan: WHAT? Weā€™re going to have snow on Easter????

  51. If NYC gets in on tomorrow nightā€™s snow like Jimmy, thenā€¦itā€™s a new game.

    BOS 11.9ā€
    NYC 2.2ā€

  52. I posted the 12z UKMET earlier today and IF that verified NY would take the lead for the season.

  53. No, it’s not too early to feel fairly confident about a significant storm system impacting the region early next week.

    But again, I feel like some people are making assumptions that those of us who feel confident of the impact are talking about snow only. No. We’re talking about a storm system – precipitation types TBD.

    I told you, this is a different pattern – a different set-up. What happened before does not factor in, at all.

    1. JR put up a preliminary map (no amounts) that has mostly rain SE/Cape, mix Boston, heavy snow n/w. He hinted on air that Bostonā€™s snow TBD on how fast rain/snow line gets to the coastline.

      1. That’s one scenario.

        You have 3 main models at that point with 3 different outcomes.

  54. New weather post and yet another reminder…
    Precipitation-types are very much up in the air regarding early next week. That part will be the last to nail down.

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