Saturday March 25 2023 Forecast (9:31AM)

67 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)

This first weekend of spring will feature a split decision on the weather. Today, if you were up early enough you may have spied the sunshine in eastern areas, but it’s faded quickly behind an advancing cloud shield which introduces our Saturday storm system – not a big storm – but a system with a low center heading into the Great Lakes, a warm front becoming stationary before it gets by us, and a secondary low forming and passing across the region tonight. No real changes to the previous forecast regarding precipitation, which may start as some snow and/or sleet especially in inland locations northwest of Boston, but otherwise this is to be mainly a rain event – not all that heavy with a general 1/2 inch of precipitation. As the occluding frontal system lifts through our region this evening though, a bit of enhanced instability may produce a brief period of heavier rainfall, and even some embedded thunder in a few locations, with the highest chance of that occurring toward the South Coast region. Overnight, the area lifts to the northeast and sets us up with a drier but windy day on Sunday. While it won’t be a “cold” day, reaching or topping 50 for high temps, the breeze will make it feel cooler. The wind will be the result of the departing low organizing over eastern Canada while high pressure to its west pushes toward New England. That high will slide into the area Sunday night into Monday with dry and more tranquil conditions. Still looking for some clouds to arrive later Monday from unsettled weather to our west as low pressure comes out of the Midwest / Ohio Valley and passes south of New England early Tuesday, from which we can see some light rainfall for a while. This represents a portion of the energy that was being watched for a potential significant storm system in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but right now the stronger indications are that it will come through our region in segments. First that one, and then another weak system passing by the region on Wednesday with just a few rain showers. Since we are still looking out at days 4 & 5 for this, it’s worth monitoring for something more important, but the stronger leaning is away from such an occurrence at this point. Will update this, of course, with tomorrow’s post.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives midday but may start as snow and/or sleet in central MA through interior southern NH and northeastern MA where a brief accumulation may occur. Highs 37-44. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely in the evening including the chance of a thunderstorm, especially near the South Coast. Drizzle and fog overnight. Temperatures generally steady 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but shifting to SW 5-15 MPH along the South Coast.

SUNDAY: A cloudy dawn with lingering areas of drizzle and fog possible, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 49-56. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. A chance of light rain overnight, favoring the southern portion of the region. Lows 35-42. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 42-49. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

The most likely period of unsettled weather is March 31 to early April 2 as low pressure passes through the region from west to east in a progressive pattern. Temperatures variable but mostly below normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)

General pattern looks unsettled and on the cool side with the greatest chance for unsettled weather at mid period.

67 thoughts on “Saturday March 25 2023 Forecast (9:31AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    I declared a pajama day even if we are not having snow. I needed one more before the chance of snow expended.

  6. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    Based on early this morning, you would never know that a storm was approaching. Even the sunrise didn’t have its usual “warning” RED signature.

    1. I’d know by the thick deck of clouds that quickly invaded the sky. The “red sky” is really only a timing thing. And you can get that on a day that perfectly fair weather is expected. I’d say it only works slightly less than 50% of the time as a reliable “weather warning”.

    1. Ty for the report. Figure sleet is a higher chance than snow down here in SNE, but the flakes can fly in a few locations still.

  9. Some of the early maps for this winter’s outlook – and I’m talking maps posted in October – have turned out to be quite accurate. The theme was and is frequent West Coast storminess, epic snows from the Cascades to the Sierras, extended bouts of cold and snow from Idaho to Wisconsin, mild in the Southeast, above normal temps in the Northeast (with below normal snowfall, except in far NNE).

    Places like Billings, Montana are getting hit once again this weekend by snow and cold. Been happening throughout the winter.

    The constancy has been remarkable. Sure, there have been a few interruptions. But the general theme forecasted verified. And that doesn’t always happen, at least not in my experience of observing weather patterns.

    1. La Nina, long-lasting. The winter could have gone a couple different ways. The big spoiling wildcard for forecasts like mine was the SE ridge. Turns out it never really gave up at all when my (and a few other) forecasts only gave it residence for a portion of the winter and not basically the entire time.

      It ended up being the most stable and least changing pattern I have observed in any winter. The atmosphere was very happy in the configuration it was in. 😉

    1. We were out to dinner last night so I didnt see it live but watched the replay. Ridiculous. Unfortunately that goal made a difference in the game as the Islanders lost by 1 in OT. They really needed that extra point too against the worst team in the league as they are clinging to that top wildcard spot!

      Another big game tonight against Buffalo. And just making the playoffs isnt good enough….they need that 7th spot to avoid the Bruins in the first round!

  11. Even when the SE ridge did finally “give up” eastern sections of SNE (Boston) still got little snow. VERY little!!! 🙁

    I still say the Mayor of Malden got the last laugh…or at least a chuckle. 😉

    1. Well, maybe. But it was still a stupid move, and it’s March 25. History shows that we’ve gotten events MUCH later than this that would still make the Malden decision look very foolish. They don’t get a free out from me – sorry. 🙂

      And the disappearance of the SE ridge was not a guarantee that Boston itself was going to get lots of snow. The pattern became “better” but the events so far have been productive at inland and higher elevation locations.

      Let me grab an image sent to me by somebody who lives in MA, and this is going to be for all the folks who wrote winter off in January & February – which is a HUGE, TREMENDOUS no-no. ANY season. You just simply do not do that. It’s also important to remember that “New England” is more than just Boston.

      You do realize that near to above normal snowfall has occurred as nearby as central MA and throughout virtually all of northern New England this season. It was just a persistent pattern that kept southeastern New England out of the mix for the most part. This was not a dud of a winter at all in the Northeast – it was just one which had a pattern that produced very little measurable snowfall in the southeastern locations. Things are not always as simple as people make them out to be. That’s why it’s important to have scientists around to give the proper perspective. 😉

      I’ll post a link below in a moment. I just have to save the image and convert it.

    2. https://photos.app.goo.gl/wBVLcFnWVLr7NjmM8

      This is the snowfall for Fitchburg MA this season.

      Even in this region people were barking about winter being over when we hadn’t even reached the halfway point. I laugh hysterically when I hear people do this. It just proves to me that they don’t pay attention.

      Look at the March snowfall total and the seasonal total for this region. Granted they average a lot more snow than Boston does but this is still pretty impressive for a so-called “nothing” winter and just proves my point that many people think if it’s not happening in their backyard then it’s not happening anywhere. These are the types of biases that need to be left aside when talking about a region. If you’re talking about your backyard only .. fine. But many people were just writing winter off for the entire region so so entirely prematurely that I still scratch my head over it. Oh well…

      1. In nearby Lunenburg, I measured 68″ for the season.

        Those Fitchburg numbers are pretty hefty. Do you know the location? Of course, my measurements are far from “professional.”

  13. Thanks TK.

    Light rain and 40 here in Coventry.

    We are sitting at 25″ of snow on the season. Least snowy season to date since I moved here in 2006. Need another couple inches to surpass the 2011-2012 season where we had 26″, thanks largely in part to the October 30 2011 snowstorm.

  14. B’s 1-1 in the 1st. Still not managing the puck as well as they should. Goal they gave up was ridiculous!

      1. Except the Bruins first goal today was a power play goal… 😉 I don’t have much to criticize for the Bruins right now. This is a tough time of year because you have to play hard while wanting to stay healthy for the upcoming playoffs. I think after that mini-slump, the last few games the B’s have been great. And TB has been abysmal lately. They will get up for a game against Boston to get out of their own slump. This will be a good game – I think B’s will prevail in the end. Tomorrow is a much tougher test, IMO.

      2. Commentators agree this was a good period for the Bruins. Met with a challenge, some old school hockey. The Bruins should not be handed any easy games unless they want to go into the playoffs with an over-complacent state of mind. And I don’t care what your record is during the season, if you go into the playoffs like that … byebye!

  15. TK brings up a good point, and SClarke’s measurements show this. While many parts of Massachusetts had below normal snowfall (I’m using past tense here, and I’ll probably get whacked for doing so!), there’s a portion of Massachusetts (Northern/Central) that had above normal snowfall.

    And while most of New England had above normal temps, I don’t think the Northern tip of Maine did. I believe that part of Arostook county had average temps. This includes the towns of Van Buren, Caribou, Presque Isle, etc …

    1. It just shows you that you have to take everything into account.

      So so SO many times I have mentioned that you don’t need below normal temps to get snow. And you can certainly get plenty of snow in this part of the country (and others) with “mild” weather.

      Conversely, you can have persistent cold and get very little snow .. example, December 1989 – Boston averaged an astounding 14 degrees below normal for the month and managed below normal snowfall. It was DRY, only 0.81 inch melted precipitation for the entire month and about 6 inches of snow, 3 inches shy of their 9 inches normal for the month.

      1. Love it!

        I was thinking of having a very short-term contest on my brother’s snowpile. He’s in the hospital but I’ve been updating on the pile. It melted once but after a few events my other brother rebuild it (I added a bit to it one morning as well). It’s shrinking again now. It’s on pavement in the middle top of his driveway (where the dog plays, she loves the pile).

        The driveway is on the north slope of a hill so that pile has a lot of staying power.

  16. We had a great trip to Big Sky, Montana last week and really lucked out with the snow/weather. We arrived late Wednesday night and they had just received 10-12″ of new snow earlier in the day so our first day of skiing on Thursday was a powder day with gradually clearing conditions. Friday and Saturday were sunny bluebird days with spectacular views. Temps started the day cold in single digits and teens but by mid afternoon were in the low 20’s to low 30’s depending where you were on the mountain.

    The place is absolutely HUGE with 330 trails and 38 lifts. We didnt even get to all areas of the mountain in the three days we were there. It is so expansive that there were areas that we skied that we had entirely to ourselves. Here are a few pictures…

    Lone Peak (11,000+ foot mountain and the centerpiece/highest point of the resort):

    https://imgur.com/evWZotC

    Approaching the Powder Seeker Bowl below the summit of Lone Peak (all those little dots are skiers!)

    https://imgur.com/G1tlaiW

    Top of the Powder Seeker Bowl looking down:

    https://imgur.com/0VdNVEk

    Looking up the tram lines towards the summit (We did NOT do this as they charged extra and it looked scary as hell up there!)

    https://imgur.com/iFbJG9L

      2. Totally awesome shots Mark!!! Wow!
        Looks like you had a blast!

        What city was your destination for your flight and how long/far a drive was it to big Sky?

        Was it Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport (BZN)?

        Thanks

        Hey as I recall, didn’t you mention Bozeman on the blog?
        Yeah, I think you did. Oh well. 🙂

        1. Yes, flew into Bozeman and it is about an hour drive south and then up the canyon into the Gallatin Mountains. Bozeman is in the plains but even there, there was snowcover on the ground. Roads up the canyon Wed night were terrible with all the new snow but our shuttle driver did a great job.

          For reference….BZN is at about 4500′ elevation, the base of Big Sky was between 7500-8000′ and the summit of Lone Mountain I believe was around 11,500′

            1. Thank you. Wish we had more than 3 full days out there but then again my legs were completely shot after 3 straight days of skiing and I am not sure I could have gone another day!

    2. Mid mountain snow base there was about 75″ and upper mountain base was about 90″. Talking to a ski patrol person there, he said this has been a great season for them, not because they have been receiving the epic snow totals that Utah and CA have but because it has remained consistently cold and they have retained all the snow they have received. There is some very steep terrain there open now that they have not been able to open in years. Lots of dynamite being thrown for avalanche mitigation the first day we were there!

  17. 12z GFS keeps the systems separate still for next week – late Monday night & early Tuesday for the 1st one, Wednesday for the 2nd one. Ironically the deterministic depiction has a snow squall line moving through SNE on Wed night, and a shot of cold air with wind for opening day at Fenway, but at least with dry weather. 🙂 Beyond its trustable range the model has some flakes for April Fools Day in a system that looks similar to today’s.

    12z Canadian is similar but slightly slower timing thru midweek.

    12z ECMWF is coming in now but so far looks similar to GFS through Tuesday.

  18. We have winters like this one where northern MA has the snow. A year or so ago we were blessed. And then there are years the cape is the bullseye. Absolutely fascinating

  19. We are switching back and forth from a very cold rain to sleet. Nothing strong….All low to low moderate

  20. In my neck of the woods the dry air has won the battle for a good portion of the afternoon so far but I finally have enough precipitation to have a damp ground. Looks like just rain as there is not really any intensity. If there are a few sleet pellets mixed in there I might have to go outside to closely inspect.

  21. Good afternoon and thank you TK.

    Binged watch Night Agent on Netflix. I couldn’t get a way from it.
    Thoroughly enjoyed it.

      1. You may have to overlook a flaw/deficiency here and there, but just go along for the ride. It’s great!! Enjoy!

      1. imho, one of their best series.

        Want something different?, Check out Warrior Nun on Netflix.

        I’ve watched it 3 times!

        1. Added to my list also Thank you.

          I’m binge re watching Blue bloods. I finished Donna Reed show or as much as has been digitalized. . It would probably be rated X in our current environment.

  23. When I left work just after 3:00 the rain was mixed with sleet/ice pellets. Nothing really going on now.

    Are sleet and ice pellets the same or a little different between the two?

    2. Haha yes. Dave’s correct. In this country they are the same. In England, “sleet” stands for a mixture of rain & snow. 🙂

  24. Bruins win 2-1; 30th home win; and clinched Atlantic! Not sure if they will cut back a little on some of their players’ ice time through rest of season.

    They just need to watch the passing and power plays. I think in the beginning of this year they may have ranked either 2nd, 3rd or 4th in power plays and they are now in the middle of the pack, maybe 11th or12th. They will be up against some very good power play teams in the post-season. The Oilers are unbelievable at power plays.

    The good news is that Bruins are winners and winning. They are the best in the league and if they play their “A game” they can most certainly win the Cup.

  25. Dave – see my response above :re Bozeman.

    Also, you brought up the Bozeman/Yellowstone airport….BZN. The airport is tiny but absolutely beautiful. The inside is done like a log cabin and has fireplaces and a firepit inside along with statues of bears and other wildlife:

    https://imgur.com/kI3BVEj

    https://imgur.com/e020RjV

    And this was the view out the window of the terminal to the mountains. You can see where the name “Big Sky” comes from:

    https://imgur.com/UFs8t4Y

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