Monday June 19 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

A pattern change of sorts is underway – more like a pattern readjustment, because there will be some things that are similar to recent weather and some differences as well. Let’s try to sort that out for these 5 days. Upper level low pressure still has control over the weather early this week. It’s a weaker version of what we had during the weekend, but it’s still enough to result in unsettled weather at times in terms of scattered shower activity later today, tonight, and again Tuesday. While this is happening, a high pressure ridge to the north, completing a Rex block set-up (high over low) will start to push southward and accomplish the task of drying us out for midweek, along with a warming trend. We welcome summer with the solstice, which occurs Wednesday at 10:57 a.m., and we’ll have more of the feel of that season Wednesday and especially Thursday when more of a westerly wind will occur after coastal sea breezes Wednesday. By Friday, a deeper southwesterly air flow will overtake the region as high pressure sits to the south and southeast, and it will be a warm day, but also a more humid one. Medium range guidance is split on whether or not any pop up showers / thunderstorms can occur Friday, but at day 5 I think a call for isolated ones is reasonable with increased moisture and solar heating combined that day.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix and some high altitude smoke in the sky as well. Isolated showers possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 53-60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 54-61. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 except cooler Cape Cod and some other coastal points. Wind W up to 10 MPH but still some weak coastal sea breezes can develop.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising over 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

The June 24-25 weekend looks humid and somewhat more unsettled. A southwesterly to southerly air flow around offshore high pressure will carry more moisture, but activity should be isolated to scattered and favor inland areas Saturday and become scattered to numerous Sunday as a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest, focusing the moisture. This leads to what looks like an unsettled first half of next week with upper level low pressure in the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley, high pressure offshore, and a frontal boundary in the region, resulting in occasional showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

This isn’t high confidence, but expecting the unsettled pattern of early next week to break down into a weak zonal flow pattern heading to the end of June and start of July, but still with a tendency for a low pressure trough to be located in the interior Northeast / Great Lakes / Ohio Valley areas, which can still provide the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms at times, but also keeps us from getting into significant heat as well. Later in the period, however, we can be vulnerable to a push of much drier air from Canada, which can result from a stronger ridge in the Upper Midwest inducing a northwesterly air flow from eastern Canada to New England.

60 thoughts on “Monday June 19 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)”

  4. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    I went to bed thinking that there would be no trash collection due to the Juneteenth holiday but when looking out my window early this morning most of my neighbors had their trash out as usual. I called Boston City Hall (311) and was told that trash/recycling would be collected tomorrow (Tuesday).

    Juneteenth is just as much of a federal holiday as any other. Even the state holiday Patriots Day there is no trash/recycling collection.

    Another unsettled weekend ahead? Is this going to be one of those trends for awhile until further notice?

    1. Our trash is usually collected on Tuesday, but due to the Holiday, it will be collected Wednesday this week. I may depend upon the section of the city?

      Btw, the city has a great app for you mobile device. It is called Trash Day. It has a nice display and will also send alerts, so you will always know when trash day is. It’s free and well worth obtaining.

      1. It’s the “weekends” I was concerned about. Even your outlook above has it unsettled. The tv mets already have raindrops and thunderbolts for both days 6-7 days out.

        1. Most of the weekend will be rain-free.
          There’s just a greater opportunity for showers and storms on Sunday.

    4. Trash down here is regular, I was surprised when I saw it online . My day is Monday & it was picked up & other surrounding towns I heard regular pickup , it’s a federal holiday right ?

  7. Thankfully it’s only Monday and that forecast will probably for the weekend as the PGA Tour is coming to CT this week.

    1. I know absolutely zero about the game of golf but I assume that lightning and golf clubs don’t mix very well. Hope they get their Tour in play.

  8. Thanks JPD. All of my life Monday was trash day in my neighborhood and I always assumed that any collection for the rest of the week was normal. I am surprised that your day would be moved up as well. 🙂

  9. If I am not mistaken, this Juneteenth (2023) is the very first time it is officially recognized as a federal holiday throughout the nation. It’s probably going to take awhile getting used to in terms of what services are open/closed.

  11. Happy belated birthday, Vicki!

    We just returned from several days in Ohio, and the air quality over the weekend was noticeably yucky (technical term). I felt the difference right away when we got home.

      1. The average forecast error at 4 days is around 200 miles, and even more at Day 5. Don’t take the track forecast verbatim.

  18. That’s one healthy TD. Will be upgraded to a TS perhaps? The outflow and symmetry is impressive.

    2. It will probably healthier in a relative sense now than any time in its life after this. Not a good future for that system, despite NHC forecast. They’ll be making adjustments going forward.

      1. Yeah, the shear increases bigtime as it gets closer to the islands. NHC holds it steady as a hurricane into the islands before it starts to weaken. I don’t expected that it’ll still be hurricane when it reaches the islands, if it ever gets to hurricane strength at all.

          1. Gee, look at that, NHC now forecasts it to reach hurricane strength barely, then weaken to a TS before reaching the islands.

  19. Euro Weeklies, GEFS, CFS…

    None of these long range models indicate any sustained above normal temperatures for New England and the entire East Coast and much of the South through the month of July. The West is on the cool train early then recovers somewhat, though there are some differences between guidance about that. Still looks to me like the trough West / modest ridge middle of country / trough East regime is good for the first half of the summer anyway. In other words, no changes to what I’ve already said.

  21. We had an unnamed subtropical storm in January, Arlene formed on June 1, and now Bret.

    Here are all the years back to 1851 that had 3 storms reach tropical storm strength by June 19:

    2023
    2021 (4 storms)
    2020
    2016
    2012
    1959

    1. And here is how those seasons ended up:

      2023
      2021 21 storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes (Moderate La Nina)
      2020 30 storms, 14 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes (Moderate La Nina)
      2016 15 storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes (Very Strong El Nino)
      2012 19 storms, 10 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes (Neutral)
      1959 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes (weak El Nino)

  22. It’s a warm 70 degrees. Kids are in the pool, sprinkler on the trampoline and the ice bath SIL got for Father’s Day. I’m on the deck laughing uncontrollably

  23. From Eric Fisher

    I currently don’t see any shot at 90F in Boston (Logan) for the next couple of weeks

    Have a very good shot of going through June without one. Happy AC bills (last time that happened was just a few years ago, 2019)

    Only one year has made it through July without any 90s in the city…and it was a long time ago (1906)

    1. I think he’s right but, there may be a lot higher humidity in time that might have some folks still turning on the A/C

      1. This pattern doesn’t end up super humid either. Although higher humidity will be visiting soon. 🙂

  24. I have yet to turn on my AC this year. That may change this weekend when the humidity comes up.

    1. I wish I could say the same. Sadly the upstairs here uses it daily. No shade and remarkably bad duct work setup.

  25. Short range guidance had been on a roll, but currently there is clear sky where it had predicted showers.

  26. According to the NHC map, there is another system on the heels of Bret with a 40-60% chance of development (Cindy).

    Potential “watchers” for the U.S. coastline?

    2. Neither has the potential to influence the East Coast.
      At most, the first one has a relatively minor impact on the eastern Caribbean as it falls apart.

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