Wednesday July 12 2023 Forecast (7:24AM)

53 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)

You’ll notice we have some high altitude smoke in the sky again from Canada. We’ve seen this off and on for some time now since the fire season started early up there, but they are in their normal fire season now and so there are still a series of ongoing wildfires that continue to provide smoke that occasionally gets into our sky. Thankfully the closer-to-surface smoke is rather thin today and will be dissipated and removed from the area by tomorrow. Otherwise, weatherwise, here’s the deal. High pressure built in surface and aloft yesterday as low pressure lifted away from the region with a nice summer day – a touch less humid though still technically humid, and quite warm but not excessively hot. Today we edge up both the temperature and humidity for more of a classic summer-feeling day. A weak, nearly indiscernible trough line will be edging down from northern New England and is a slight aid to triggering a few showers and thunderstorms mainly near the MA/NH border, west of I-95, later today. A few of these may wander into northeastern MA by the end of the afternoon or early evening but should be in their dissipating process by that time. Will Boston’s Logan airport hit 90 for the first time this season today? Maybe, but a light sea breeze can prevent it, unless that breeze occurs and dies off early enough, in which case the airport can jump up at the end of the day. Many areas away from the coast make a run at or slightly surpass 90 today. As you know, 90+ temps have been lacking thus far and so when you get there, along with some humidity, in a season that’s been sparsely populated with them, it feels quite hot. If you are outside today, stay hydrated and in the shade when possible. Our overall weather pattern is unchanged yet, and we have another low pressure trough to govern the overall weather from Thursday through the weekend. This trough will take its time moving eastward into our region via the Great Lakes, and as I thought yesterday, Friday and Sunday appear to be the 2 days with the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms out of that 4-day stretch. Obviously, fine tuning will come both in comments sections after each blog post, and with each morning blog update itself. Don’t cancel your weekend plans, but know that Sunday is likely to carry a higher potential of showers/storms regionwide than Saturday does.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon interior southern NH and north central to northeastern MA. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon, but most activity will be isolated and west of I-95. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early and again overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

Based on current timing, shower and thunderstorm chances are highest on July 16 and 18, but cannot rule out a shower or storm any of these days with the overall pattern similar. High humidity may break somewhat later in the period. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

Continued indications of a break-down of the blocking pattern that has caused the muggy/showery pattern to more of a zonal flow with 1 or 2 dry air intrusions from Canada behind a couple shower/thunderstorm threats. Still no indications of any sustained significant heat.

53 thoughts on “Wednesday July 12 2023 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  5. Logan is now up to 81 and it’s only 830 in the morning.
    Wind NW at 7 mph. So far no sea breeze. We’ll see what happens as the land continues to heat up. I smell a sea breeze to prevent
    90 at Logan. Of course there always the 4-6 PM wind shift.
    We shall see.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Milan Kundera has died. He was 94.

    His book “The Unbearable Lightness of Being” remains one of my favorites. It is a complex tale, an East European masterpiece as it exposes both the absurdities of life (and government systems), and probes the human character in all its vulnerability. The ending, however sad, ultimately (they die in a car accident on a rainy road, though you don’t see the crash) encapsulates the essence of Tomas and Teresa. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wucD8Ej_d8E

    1. Thank you, TK. I second Tom. Great discussions…..this morning and in the wee hours of this morning.

  9. NWS Boston Discussion thinking there is a chance for strong to severe storms on Friday

    there will be increasing instability each day, with a large part
    of the area potentially reaching at least 2000 J/kg of surface
    CAPE Friday along with bulk shear 0-6 km AGL near 30-35 kt. This
    will make for the possibility of some strong to severe
    thunderstorms for both damaging winds and large hail

  11. In the spot we’ve been, the last 2 days have featured the “southeast winds”, known on the northwest side of Cape Breton.

    The hills and mtns that start the Cabot Trail are just to the west. There is major shadowing that goes on here, it was clear here yesterday with the winds howling down the hills/mtns.

    I’d figure we’ve frequently gusted to 35-40 mph and have hit 50 occasionally. Yet, it’s not equal all around, town center is much calmer.

    The wind is nice, refreshing and keeps the bugs away. It’ll slam a door on your fingers though, if your not careful.

  12. Logan is up to 85 and still holding onto a land breeze at
    7 mph. So far just strong enough to hold off a sea breeze.
    The battle is on…. will Logan make 90? certainly if no
    sea breeze. Is it coming or not? 🙂

    1. Hmmm
      Logan’s wind just went calm and temp slipped back to 84.
      Here it comes!
      Will there be a 4-6 PM wind shift? we shall see.

  13. SE sea breeze at Logan. Only 7 mph, but enough to prevent
    Logan from making 90, barring that late PM or early evening wind shift to land breeze. Time will tell.

    1. At this point I want them to break the record for the latest 90.

      Just like Vegas recently broke the record for the latest 100.

        1. I think it gives up later, but will it be enough to allow a 90?

          I still say 89.

  14. Logan temp 84 with ESE wind at 9mph.
    BUT the dew point hast dropped to 59 !!!
    Is that a mistake or real and if so, where is the dry air coming from? Dp 67 here about 6 miles away

    2. I think you need to check out your sensor. If you are in the back bay. not way it’s 92. Is your sensor in the sun? On the payment?
      on the roof? Does not sound correct to me.

      it’s 84 at the airport and 88 here in JP.
      I would say your temp is 87 or 88. 🙂 Just my humble opninion

  16. 90 even and 73 DP.

    It could be over 100 and I’d be happy. Just returned from dentist in hopkinton where I got quite good news.

    JPD do you know what they are doing to the sidewalks in hopkinton. They are wide enough to drive a car down

    1. I see a 90 at Peters park which is a few miles from you and an 89 also not far. It absolutely amazes me that Nws doesn’t have a sensor on either the common or the gardens. Or both.

  25. 77-92 across the WHW forecast area on this fine summer afternoon.

    Cool spot: Nantucket.
    Hot spot: Norwood.

  26. 5:00 p.m. wind is back to SW at Logan with a temperature of 89. Now we just have to see if they touched 90 sometime after the hour.

    1. Pretty much as I suspected. And locally / regionally, some areas would have fared worse then they did in Irene (others better) due to slight variations in the details. But very comparable overall.

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