Tuesday September 26 2023 Forecast (7:03AM)

75 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

We’ve gotten rid of the low pressure area, formerly Ophelia, that plagued the area with more rain at times the last 3 days, but today we keep a lot of clouds from a northeasterly air flow supplying low level moisture while a disturbance rides over the top of that across the region. High pressure builds in for midweek with fair weather and finally plenty of sunshine, but we may have a stop at a proverbial weather toll booth on Friday as that low pressure hanging around to our south nudges northward enough to bring at least a mostly cloudy sky and possibly some wet weather into the region. With luck, and I think luck will be on our side, we’ll see the high pressure to the north re-establish control and push that out of here in time for the start of the weekend on Saturday, which is also the final day of the month.

TODAY: Lots of clouds. Partial sun develops later. A sprinkle or patch of drizzle possible. Highs 59-66. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52 except 37-44 some interior low elevations. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear early, then clouds return later. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southern areas. Highs 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

No big changes here. Still optimistic that high pressure dominates with a drier pattern and a seasonable to mild temperature trend for the first few days of the month, then a weak cold front from Canada bringing in cooler air later in the period. All the while we watch the tendency for low pressure to hang around to our south and hope it stays down there this time…

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Cautious optimism continues about a continued drier pattern with temperatures near to slightly above normal, but somewhat variable. Still we’ll be in a pattern that needs us to eye low pressure to our south at times.

75 thoughts on “Tuesday September 26 2023 Forecast (7:03AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Another dank, dreary, disgusting depressing day!!!!

    Do they ever end???????????????????????????????

          1. My suit? ha ha ha ha

            Yeah, I know it’s finally coming. I was just making a point.

            enough is enough already!!!

    2. I’m having a tough time waking up in the darkness at 6am and just not making much more progress until 8 or 9am. Its too dark.

  6. Watched a series on Netflix entitled “The Pacific”
    It was an HBO mini series that aired a number of years ago
    about the Marines in the Pacific during WWII.

    WOW! what a GRAPHIC representation of War!!!
    Not for the faint of heart, but a gripping story done very well.

    I have always respected our military, but I have even greater respect now. Just incredible what these service men and women go through when they experience battle conditions.

    No one should ever have to experience it!

    1. Thanks, TK. You know I join you in enjoying the dark. I didn’t do much yesterday except take trash out but even with light rain, I loved the feel of the air too. A neighbor had a fire going in his outdoor fireplace, and it smelled wonderful.

  12. I’m glad to hear you are getting there Vicki. My one known experience with food poisoning was awful. The caterers at my parents’ 50th anniversary party offered up some dodgy chicken. It was easy to trace the source because so many people were a part of it.

  13. This is not the only part of the country that’s been quite wet. Anchorage, AK just had their 5th wettest summer on record (records back to 1953). Their highest temperature this summer was only 73, which is the lowest high for the summer since 2012. The models keep hinting at a storm bringing them their 1st snow of the year (at least a mix of rain and snow), around October 7. The average date for their 1st measurable snow is October 16, but its happened as early as September 21. They have already dropped to 32 twice this month, the 1st time on September 19, 5 days ahead of their average of September 24, and their earliest 1st 32 since 2004.

    Oh, and I’ll be in Anchorage October 6-9, which is why I’ve been paying close attention to their weather. Based on the normals, temperatures in early October in Anchorage is roughly the equivalent of Thanksgiving around here.

    1. A friend was visiting family in Sweden for a good part of the summer and said it was unusually wet there as well. The one upside was she said there was a bumper crop of mushrooms.

    1. What was once Ophelia is and will continue to be long gone. The low pressure area we watch to our south late this week is unrelated, and a separate system, just born of the pattern that’s a quasi Rex block (mentioned by me not long ago as part of the pattern).

  18. Thanks TK.

    Just an update to my post from late last night. We ended up raining pretty much non-stop yesterday in Coventry. Final totals for the three day event were as follows;

    1.95” yesterday
    0.45” Sunday
    0.05” Saturday

    2.45” for a storm event total.
    10.63” on the month of September
    Over 31” since July 1st

    I did not have a functioning rain gauge prior to July 1st but would be very curious to see where we stand for a total on the year so far. My guess is we have already reached or exceeded the annual average which is pretty incredible.

    Hopefully we can string more than a couple dry days together this week!

      1. My new weather station is an Ambient and keeps plenty of data in memory. The old Accurite which crapped out did not and I didn’t keep good track of the monthly totals.

        1. Thank you. My a accu did the same. I think it is JR who likes the ambient. I have a good system and now the kestrel to play with. But would like a stand-alone rain gauge that records. Might not exist. All Thad said….Do you mind sharing the make of your ambient.

    2. Eric F actually posted yesterday that Worcester has already reached its annual average rainfall (approx. 48″). And still 3+ months to go in 2023.

  19. Another thing I posted last night…..article on CNN regarding the upcoming El Nino winter and what it might bring:

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/25/weather/el-nino-winter-us-climate

    The weather outcomes in the Northeast during El Nino are more variable than other parts of the country as we know and dependent on several other factors. The article mentions this.

    It also mentions that the last El Niño winter of this strength was 2009-2010. That winter featured several massive snow storms in the Mid Atlantic and record breaking snows in Washington and Baltimore. I recall that strong blocking kept the brunt of those storms to our south. Is it possible we have a similar setup this winter? I’d welcome that , just with a little bit weaker blocking….

      1. I’m cautiously optimistic. We havent had a good pattern for some large coastal storms in a few years. And CFS looks cold Dec-Feb. We’ll worry about getting the storms to come up the coast later 🙂

        1. I worry about no coastal systems all the time.
          They don’t come about that often anyway.

          I’ll settle for a juicy Miller-B system. 🙂

    3. I remember the huge DC storm because it impacted my daughter’s flight itinerary (with a cello!) for a college visit and audition. It was her first time flying by herself.

  22. Boston might have a shot at 80 Monday.

    Record high is 88 set in 1954. Way out of reach.

    If the timing of the cold front dropping out of eastern Canada is slower, Tuesday could be quite warm as well.

  24. I’ve been engrossed in a field hockey game the last 2 hrs ….. very stressful 🙂

    Anyhow, I just noticed Logan is 54F.

    That has to be the coolest in a long time.

      1. Yes.

        My daughter’s the goaltender.

        So at Salem, she played really well. They lost 1-0, but she had a lot of 2nd half saves and gave the team a chance to tie, as Salem dominated the 2nd half.

        Tonight, Bridgewater broke out with 3 goals, but the other team scored 4. I think she feels she’d like a couple of the goals back.

        Win as a team, lose as a team, but how the goalie plays can be magnified a little bigger. So, I hope she’s having fun and trying to improve every day, but I worry how much of the losses she puts on her shoulders.

        So, I’m usually in long text conversations after games starting with the positives and trying to get her to look at the glass half full vs half empty.

        This parenting thing. Yikes. Someday I’ll figure it out.

        1. Yikes is right. And a goalie…well, very true. I truly think I know you well enough to understand your daughter is very lucky to have your after game conversations.

          I remember those conversations after shows. Sometimes my oldest was having them with me. She is her fathers daughter.

          1. Awesome. I did a check with kestrel. Wunder says 47 here. My dashboard says 48. The hvac says 44. Kestrel says 48.8. As an aside need to reposition thermometer before we rely on heat.

  25. Eric F. is worth watching this evening just for the entertainment value, starting with a graphic declaring “We can’t have nice things.”

  26. This afternoon I went to my neighborhood takeout and while I was waiting for my order, their big screen tv had NBC-10 and Pete was on. I hardly recognized him. For a few seconds I thought maybe it was their new met that some folks here (including TK) have been talking about. Anyway, what I want to say is that Pete has AGED! Whoa! Has he been ill? It’s been awhile since I’ve seen him on air and I don’t believe I’ve seen him at all this summer but I don’t believe it’s been THAT long. Maybe spring? I don’t get that station weeknights very often except during the winter or early spring when there is snow or potential snow.

    Not to make joke but has forecasting become THAT stressful? Of course I have no idea how old Pete is.

    1. I think Pete looks like Pete. It must have been a while since you saw him. Otherwise he’s aging about normally from what I can tell. 🙂

      BTW I answered your question about Ophelia. Nowhere near this area late week. Across the sea. The low to the south is a different system.

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