Wednesday September 27 2023 Forecast (7:25AM)


At dawn this morning, temperature ranged widely from the upper 30s across interior lower elevations to the lower 60s on the outer part of Cape Cod. As sunshine dominates the landscape today under high pressure, the temperature will even off across the region as they rise significantly from the chilly inland lows and rise modestly from the mild coastal area lows, so that these areas will have a fairly similar high temp in the middle 60s. Outside of those details, the general idea is nice weather is finally here and will be with us today and tomorrow under the influence of high pressure. One thing about our sunshine though, it will be filtered at times by additional high altitude wildfire smoke from Canada as their long fire season goes on. Additionally, we’re still in “that pattern”, which means we have to keep an eye on something that can turn the weather unsettled to prevent a longer stretch of fair weather. Once again we’ll be keeping an eye on low pressure sitting south of New England as a low pressure trough swings eastward from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late this week. This trough will help develop that low which will have an inverted trough with it extending northward as if it’s trying to grab onto New England. There is some variety in the guidance we look at as to how this feature is going to behave and impact our region, but right now it looks like it will at least give us more cloudiness from Friday to early Saturday, and at least the chance of a period of wet weather favoring areas south of I-90 with highest chance in the South Coast region. Some fine-tuning is obviously needed in the short term and I’ll have a more detailed breakdown of this on the next update. I am pretty confident though that this episode will not mimic the coverage and length of time of the last one – this being a much shorter-lived bout. High pressure builds in again for the return of fair weather as we move through the weekend.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 47-54, 40-47 in some lower elevation locations. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear early, then clouds return later. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain by late in the day, favoring southern areas. Highs 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring areas south of I-90. Patchy fog in valleys, swamps, and bogs. Lows 50-57. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 65-72. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except foggy areas low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Early fog patches dissipate otherwise sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

A little more confident in a drier weather pattern during early October. Temperatures variable, starting out above normal then dropping back toward normal after a cold front delivers a Canadian air mass mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

The large scale pattern still maintains the tendency for high pressure to our north and low pressure to our south, and while the trend remains for the high to exert more influence and our pattern to stay on the drier side, we still remain vulnerable to a northward push of low pressure from the south bringing a period of wetter weather at some point. Temperatures near to above normal.

79 thoughts on “Wednesday September 27 2023 Forecast (7:25AM)”

  1. I know that the euro may be an outlier, but wow!!

    up to 5 inches of rain in Eastern MA

    We don’t need that!! gfs was pretty good last time, so here’s hoping the gfs rules again.

    1. The swings run to tun on the Euro have been crazy the past few days on this, the ensemble means are much more grounded on total QPF so far but hoping the GFS wins out!

  2. News anchor should not be assuming they know how the weather works.

    As just noted on WBZ Radio, the sunshine does not burn off the wildfire smoke.

    1. Burn off the smoke! That sounds like secondary combustion in a wood stove, starting at about 600F. It would be quite a site to see 🙂

      We went to 39 this morning.

  3. Doing some research on vaccines and inoculation over the centuries. Evidently, inoculation was done in Asia and Africa more than 1,000 years ago.

    To illustrate, Cotton Mather was told about inoculation by an enslaved worker, Onesimus, who had been inoculated as a child in Africa. Subsequently, in 1721, Mather campaigned for inoculation during an outbreak of smallpox in Boston and met with some success but also a lot of hostility.

  4. Thanks, TK…

    A huge, beautiful, fiery red/orange orb in the eastern skies this morning at sunrise!!!

    1. Thank you, JJ. This one I definitely remember. Standing on the porch as it took down a weeping willow next door, the wind sounded like a huge freight train barreling through the yards.

    2. I was only 2 but Gloria gave me one of my earliest memories, probably bc it was traumatic. I remember the visual of a huge pine tree that came within a couple feet of crushing out house and the sound of chainsaws up and down the street. Gloria was far more impactful inland than Bob.

        1. We lost power for one week on Long Island – it was the only time I was ever in the eye of a hurricane. Thanks for posting!

  5. Thanks TK. Let’s keep a weekend dry for a change 🙂

    Never had better grass in September in 25 years at my house in JP. Usually it’s brown and ugly.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Made it down to 39.9F at 2:30AM here. Actually broke down and put the heat on for 20 minutes this morning.

    Vicki – my weather station is an “Ambient Weather WS-2000 Wi-Fi OSPREY Solar Powered Wireless Weather Station” I’m liking it so far for the couple months I have had it up.

  7. Hurricane Gloria was the first hurricane in my lifetime. Hurricane Belle in 1976 if I recall, fizzled out before she arrived. There wasn’t a lot or rain or wind around here.

  8. We were living in Framingham during Hurricane Gloria. The evening before the sky was unusually pink, almost red. The next morning there was a fog that was very low on the ground. Then the wind picked up. We got a lot of wind but I don’t remember any rain. In fact, the day after, we had a strong thunderstorm with lots of rain.

  9. The Euro has become a major, major problem.

    I don’t know how the folks who oversee the Met ofc or organization that run the EURO can let this version of it continue.

    I do think the 12z suite overall, at least for now, let an inverted trof and its effects be a bit further north than previous runs.

    So, lets see if the wipers move back southeast tomorrow, hold steady or continue further north and west.

  10. Trends today are to put the inverted trough in the Hudson Valley making the end-of-week event more prolific in NYC, western CT, and southeastern NY, and much less an “event” east of there.

    We’ll see if this trend holds. I will say that it did show up on some guidance yesterday as well.

  11. Philip .. to add to the rainfall info SAK posted regarding Hurricane Belle. It did indeed produce a good swath of 3-6 inch rain, but more rain fell the evening before the storm’s arrival in eastern areas due to a predecessor rain event, while the storm itself produced heavier rain more to the west of the Boston area. There was pretty severe / significant flooding in western New England, particularly southern VT, where many bridges and roads were washed out.

    It was quite windy as the weakening / transitioning system went west of the Boston area. While not outrageous, the winds did result in damage to trees and power outages. The top wind gust in Boston was 54 MPH from the south.

    1. I ask because I have the accu mounted on top of the swing set (thanks to son). But my Wi-Fi range stinks and I’m sure that was part of the issue with the unit

  12. Thanks SAK/TK about Hurricane Belle. I remember a lot of hype prior to her arrival, at least for those days. I should have remembered a lot more as I was almost 16 that year, not a little kid by any means. Don’t know why I remember it as a “nothing” event. Sure, nothing devastating but a decent summer tropical after all. One thing I definitely remember was our next door neighbor taping his front windows with masking tape. Some folks did that prior to hurricanes back then.

    1. I think the main reason was because the last decent hit was Donna 1960, 16 years earlier, and the expectations were similar.

      And we were still coming off the really active 1950s just 2 decades prior.

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