Tuesday November 7 2023 Forecast (7:15AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

The large scale weather pattern dominating is a zonal (west to east) flow. This means that weather systems are on the move and not lingering. Overnight, a warm front pushed through, and late evening lows in the 40s were followed by a temperature rise into the 50s, along with higher humidity (dew point nearly matching but in general trailing the temps by a degree to a few degrees). Rain showers also moved through most areas, and with the help of a trough of low pressure, a swath of widespread showers will move across eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA into mid morning before departing. Between this and an approaching cold front we get a slice of sunshine and a mild day with highs topping 60 across most of the region. The cold front trailing low pressure moving across southeastern Canada will swing through our region late this afternoon and evening, producing a few scattered rain showers, and a sharp turn to colder weather overnight. This sets up a fair but chilly Wednesday with below normal temperatures, as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes across northern New England / southeastern Canada. The next low pressure system makes a run at our region via the Great Lakes on Thursday. It’s quick-moving, as previously noted, so clouds move in rapidly ahead of it Wednesday night and a band of precipitation associated with warm air advecting in aloft arrives in the pre-dawn hours with air cold enough that some if it can fall as sleet and/or wet snow, especially north of I-90. But this system is going to be moving along a non-supporting upper air flow and won’t be strengthening, but weakening rapidly, and as the initial band of precipitation exits as quickly as it arrived, additional precipitation will start to dry up so anything that falls after the initial burst would be limited, and in the form of very light rain. A weak surface low will move eastward along a frontal boundary which will probably never lift any further north than the South Coast region, so with the exception of a possible brief shot of mild air along the South Coast, most of the area will have a light northeast flow and chilly weather Thursday. This all slides away to the southeast Thursday night and another surface wave passes well south of the region late Friday, but during the day Friday an upper level trough will swing trough with lots of clouds. These can produce a spot shower of rain and even graupel in isolated locations, otherwise expect generally dry weather Friday. High pressure builds in Saturday with dry, breezy, and chilly weather for Veterans Day.

TODAY: Cloudy start including widespread showers into mid morning from eastern CT through RI and southeastern MA, then emerging sun and passing clouds before clouds increase again northwest to southeast later, with a few scattered showers possible northwest to southeast afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Good chance of rain by dawn, may start mixed with sleet and/or snow especially interior higher elevation locations. Lows 34-41. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain chance highest early southern NH and eastern MA, then spotty very light rain / drizzle possible thereafter. Highs 44-51, mildest South Coast where some locations may max out a bit warmer. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH except may turn S or SW for a time South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A spot shower of rain / sleet / graupel possible. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

High pressure is expected to provide dry weather and keep additional unsettled weather to the south to finish off the weekend on November 12. High pressure shifts to the south and east with dry weather continuing and a slow milder trend for the early to middle portion of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

A west to east flow dominates with one or two frontal systems bringing unsettled weather chances, but no prolonged or big storms indicated. Temperatures near to above normal.

48 thoughts on “Tuesday November 7 2023 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  1. This weather blog is truly great. One of the few online civilized conversations about weather or sometimes we deviate on to other topics.
    Thanks TK for your time and effort to keep us all informed.

    1. Indeed. Chilly, breezy, but bright & dry!
      Woburn has a Veterans Day parade that alternates year to year what direction it marches Main Street to the common at 10:40 a.m. and then the 11 a.m. hour is a ceremony on the common.

  2. Thanks, TK.

    What a great idea to alternate the Woburn parade route direction โ€” it includes more of the town that way!

  3. Thanks, TK.
    I love the idea of alternating the direction of the parade route between years to include more of the town.

  4. Post this late last night, but figured I’d post again for those who missed it

    Got this info from Ryan Maueโ€™s daily updates:

    โ€œThe EPS Control is actually a 15-day deterministic model with the same configuration as the HRES. The next upgrade cycle will discontinue the 10-day HRES. If you are comparing GFS with the ECMWF, then what you should do is look at the 15 overlapping days between the GFS and EPS control.โ€

  5. Thanks Tk . Looking forward to your winter outlook post this week , is it Veterans Day weekend I think .

    1. My self-imposed deadline is November 20. I hope to have it before that. I don’t think I really need to see any more before I write this. Everything so far is breaking the way I thought going from October into November, so it’s time…

    1. Nice. We are doing ours Saturday. It is something I always enjoyed doing with Mac. His angel day is Saturday so we thought it would be a nice way to celebrate him.

    1. Saw the lightning cluster up there. Fun. A line either about to arrive here or will scoot by. No thunder just looks like rain

  6. Cold front crossed Woods Hill at 4:40 p.m. with a distinctive wind shift and a gust around 20-25 MPH. The rain showers along the front were segmented and nothing occurred at my location. The closest pass was several miles to my southwest.

  7. Speaking of Coming in from the Cold, here’s Bob Marley (1980): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF0Jtl-dpyE

    Marley performed this song, among many, in the fall of 1980 in Boston. He also gave several lengthy interviews to a local radio station (Stephen Davies was the interviewer). Unfortunately, Marley soon fell ill after a concert in New York City. He died in the spring of 1981.

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