Monday November 6 2023 Forecast (7:14AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

A warm front will approach our region today, pass through tonight and very early Tuesday, and a cold front will then swing through later Tuesday as its parent low tracks north of our area. Clouds become dominant ahead of the warm front today, and a few patches of rain will be in the region tonight and first thing Tuesday with the warm front passing by, and then another rain shower may visit some areas later Tuesday with the cold front. In between we have our mildest day of this week on Tuesday. After that, a chilly Canadian high builds in for Wednesday with a return of dry weather. Next, our fast-flowing west to east jet stream sends low pressure toward the region for Thursday, but this system is likely to be lacking support and falling apart as it moves along, so the precipitation threat is relatively brief and minor, confined mostly to the morning hours (when a brief mix with sleet and/or wet snow can occur if it comes in quickly enough). A lot of the support for this system will be shunted south of our region, and this paves the way for another disturbance to pass by to the south later on Friday too, which should be mainly dry but may carry a fair amount of cloud cover.

TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain overnight. Lows 40-47 evening, steady or rising slightly overnight. Wind SE shifting to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower early morning and late day. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Chance of rain by dawn, may start mixed with sleet and/or snow especially interior higher elevation locations. Lows 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy through midday with a chance of light rain, brief mix potential early interior higher elevations. Thinning clouds / increasing sun afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Veterans Day Saturday (11/11) and Sunday (11/12) look dry and cool as high pressure builds just to the west and north of New England, and then this high should drift closer to our region with fair and calmer weather and a slight temperature moderation the first half of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

West to east flow is expected to dominate on the large scale with high pressure in control early in the period, a frontal system coming through mid period when there’s a better chance of some unsettled weather, then fair weather returning at the end of the period if current medium range timing holds true.

29 thoughts on “Monday November 6 2023 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  1. I’m using a new program to record snowfall photos. I haven’t opened my computer in months so started using numbers on the iPad to create simple tables. I’m half waiting for it to blow up on me so will post a screen shot of the guesses periodically on the contest page once TK creates it.

    Meanwhile, I’m copying everyone’s guesses and will post them in the contest page also. That way you guys done have to move them

    Im hoping retrac and arod and dr stupid and other winter posters are reading and will add their predictions

  2. TK, if you get a minute, how does the mid-cape look for tomorrow? (We’re thinking about a possible outdoor work day, but aren’t so interested in wrangling wet leaves.) Thanks.

    1. Scattered rain showers in the morning to around noon or so. Dry thereafter. Reliable short range guidance less than 24 hours out (NAM & HRRR) agree on this. I’d go with that forecast.

    1. Hmmm, well alrighty then, there might be “some” frozen stuff in the air, not that it would amount to anything. Sort of like mood
      precip. 🙂

  3. CFS monthly outlook is a bit active into December then trends dry for the heart of winter.

    I’ll be talking about this in depth on my winter outlook soon.

  4. Got this info from Ryan Maue’s daily updates:

    “The EPS Control is actually a 15-day deterministic model with the same configuration as the HRES. The next upgrade cycle will discontinue the 10-day HRES. If you are comparing GFS with the ECMWF, then what you should do is look at the 15 overlapping days between the GFS and EPS control.”

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