Wednesday December 6 2023 Forecast (7:33AM)

97 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Two days of cold will be followed by a warm up Friday through the weekend. A short-duration snow shower event this morning will be focused in eastern MA and parts of southeastern NH, and into RI as well. This will be the result of a northeasterly air flow at the surface, an inverted trough off low pressure well to our southeast, and a weak disturbance passing through above us. This afternoon, we’ll be in a drier northwesterly air flow which will then last through Thursday, as a north-south elongated high pressure area approaches from the west. A weak warm front will pass by uneventfully Thursday night, and as high pressure slides offshore we’ll start a warm-up on Friday which will last through the weekend. Fair weather will be with us Friday and Saturday. A vigorous trough and frontal system trailing a low set to pass to our north will approach later Sunday. We’ll see the wind pick up ahead of this, and a period of strong wind and heavy rain / possible thunder is anticipated as the front crosses the region during Sunday night. More detail can be given for that event as we get closer to its occurrence.

TODAY: Cloudy this morning with snow showers likely from the I-95 belt eastward and a chance of a few snow showers to the west. Snowfall accumulation generally traces / under 1 inch, but 1-2 inches possible on unpaved surfaces just inland mainly Plymouth County MA. Breaking clouds / partial sun this afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain showers. Heavier rain and possible thunder at night. Highs 55-62. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Breezy, dry December 11. Watch for a minor system to bring clouds / light precipitation around the middle of next week but no major storminess indicated. Temperatures variable, averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)

One or two low pressure systems bring temperature swings and mostly minor precipitation threats with no major storms indicated during this period. Temperatures near to above normal.

97 thoughts on “Wednesday December 6 2023 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Snowing decently here in JP. Ground is covered with a thin dusting. Looks very Wintry. What a beautiful sight to behold!

    Now we’ll see how long it lasts and how much, if any, ,accumulation there will be. 🙂

    Temp 31 here.

    OCEAN TEMP: 49.6

  5. Good morning and thanks, TK.

    I agree with Tom. Gotta a nice burst of snow now.
    Roof top and grass are white.

    Students are bummed that they are here! 🙂

  6. My boys were less than impressed with me singing “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas” to get them out of bed this morning. But what a pretty sight it was to see the trees covered and glistening. Amazing how nature can just set the mood for the day.

  9. Well for a brief period here in Swampscott, I thought we would set a new global record for the lowest accumulation of visible snow in a single event. Now I think we are at 2/10ths of an inch.

  10. Thanks Tk . Snowing very heavy in pembroke when I left for work at 5am with roads snow covered & RT being plowed & was all set when I hit Braintree/ Quincy area . Very light activity here at the Hospital. Excellent forecast by Tk & the Mets on this one .

  12. Thanks TK. Happy to hear people on the South Shore are getting some snow this morning to brighten the mood for the season. Enjoy! 🙂

  13. Still snowing very lightly here. 🙂
    Just mood snow as it’s not amounting to much of anything.
    NOT that it was expected here. I always hope. 🙂

  15. Fantasy or not? 6Z GFS snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023120606&fh=294&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    24 hour Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023120606&fh=306&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    total run Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023120606&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    IF ONLY!!!

    That would be close enough to Christmas for the proverbially WHITE CHRISTMAS!!!

    Wouldn’t that be nice. Enough snow, YET NOT a crippling even by any stretch.

    Of course, it will be GONE on the upcoming 12Z run. 🙂

  16. Thanks, TK.

    Just a few random flakes up “north” here in Sudbury. Meaning, not on the South Shore or nearer Boston. Hoping to see more flakes as the day goes on.

  17. Sue, I’m still laughing as I picture you waking your boys with a song.

    Just grey here. Nary a flake to be seen. But my Christmas decorating is finally finished. Now to start wrapping. Sunday looks to be a perfect day for that.

    1. They may not have enjoyed the signing but they were happy to see the snow. 🙂

      Great idea to do the wrapping on Sunday. I think I shall do the same and will raise a toast to you each time I lose the tape.

    1. KBOS was down this morning. Looks like it is back online now.

      I had to use TBOS to view radar. 🙂

      Yup, just verified, KBOS is back on line.

      1. Thanks JpDave !

        I’m not trying to have a glass half full attitude ….

        but how often does that radar go down (seemingly) and why does it feel like it happens during precip events ??

  21. Got home at 3:45am, and could see the Moon through the clouds. Looked outside at 4:20 because there was something on our deck driving the cats crazy, and we had a coating on the deck, the lawn, and the cars in the driveway (except mine which was still too warm).

    Looks like it was more than just ocean-effect, as plenty of inland places reported light snow this morning. This is mainly due to the upper-level disturbance swinging through. When I was writing all my forecasts around Midnight, I noticed a batch of light snow moving across central NY, so I added in morning flurries for all the places we forecast for that are well away from the coast (from Manchester, NH to Worcester/Fitchburg) to account for that.

    1. NAM got pretty consistent hinting at the upper. So I added that info the discussion a couple mornings ago.

      It was indeed there.

  23. Thanks, TK.

    Been looking for this video for years. It’s of the famous concert Jimi and his then newly formed Band of Gypsys gave on New Year’s Eve 1969 and New Year’s Day 1970 at The Fillmore East in NYC, close to where Hendrix was living at the time.

    Who Knows became an instant Hendrix classic. Features Jimi, the guitar virtuoso and singer, as well as Buddy Miles on drum and vocals. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LG4Oi9cnUvw

    Buddy Miles wrote this one (the ease with which Jimi plays guitar is astounding; takes a lot of practice, Hendrix hardly ever put away his guitar, he often slept with it next to him):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oD-byM86pY

  24. It amazes me how often, inside runners are forecast to be super intense when they first appear in the long range ……. how often as they move forward into the medium and short range, the intensities projected come back to reality.

    To be sure, still projecting a strong frontal passage with a strip of heavy rain and strong S winds, but gone is the sub 970 mb low that was in the projections as recently as 2-3 days ago.

  25. I just finished listening to an interview with a Brenda Lee. I am shocked that rockin around the Christmas tree was only recently recognized as a popular Christmas song. I remember wayyyy back in the 60s blasting the radio any time it came on. The interview i listened to was the Bobby bones Friday full show podcast at abiut the 44:00 point.

    She was nine when she sang the song in 1958.

    1. My Wife and I saw her in concert at Indian Ranch in Webster
      some years ago. She was awesome!!!

      Side note: My Brother’s band played the music for her, making it a doubly awesome day for us!! 🙂

  27. GFS

    What was a snowstorm on the 6Z run

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023120606&fh=294&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Is now nothing for the same time period

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023120612&fh=288&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

    But later this rolls around

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023120612&fh=336&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Don’t you just love the good ole GFS?????

          1. KILLJOY REALIST. 🙂

            Whatever will be will be. I’ll be patient till January, then I’ll turn into a MONSTER. 🙂

  31. MJO update. No need to really update. Behavior exactly as expected.

    While some where imagining this index going into 8 1 & 2 because they wanted it to, the reality is it moved from 3 into 4 last week, and will now progress through 5 and 6, into 7 over the next week. Beyond that it travels into 8 but also becomes very weak, so 8’s influence will likely be minimized. I think what may happen, after applying the HTE, is that we’ll be DRY, mild but with short-lived sharp cold shots as the predominant pattern, with 1 or 2 deeper lows traveling to our west / north (one this Sunday/Monday, and another one “sometime after that”).

    Back on November 22, my winter forecast was posted and for December my idea was a cold start, and milder finish for near normal temps. Well, the cold start didn’t hold as long, and we’ve been generally milder, and while I did hint at the short-lived cold shots, and I do think those will most certainly materialize, it won’t be enough to make December a repeat of November in terms of departure. So I’ll tweak “normal” to “near to above normal” given the abbreviated early month chill-down and not enough sustained cold to drop us to a negative departure.

    For precipitation, while the pattern is “active” it surely isn’t all that wet. Yes, Sunday’s rainfall was decent, and we wait 1 week to get the next significant shot of precipitation (rain here) and while it may be heavy, it won’t be lasting. CPC & I agree on the dry regime for a good portion of the country as we head into mid month.

    That’s what we got for now!

    Weather looking dry and chilly and not that windy for this evening’s Angle of Hope candlelight vigil here in Woburn…

    1. So we can KISS December good-bye and hope for an active January. Frankly, I don’t hold out a lot of hope for the whole Winter. Hope my feelings are DEAD WRONG!

      1. We can’t kiss December goodbye really. A weak MJO is not necessarily the same thing as an MJO in the “wrong” phases. What I don’t see is a significant snowstorm for southeastern New England through about December 20. After that, the door is open.

    2. You know what? I don’t even remember this one at all.
      NOT in the slightest!! I must be really losing it. Funny, because
      I DO remember lots of other ones?

      Tis a MYSTERY to me.

    3. That was an impressive event, and for me it had minimal impact. I was off work December 5 & 6 (I was off Fridays and Saturdays) and worked from home Sunday December 7.

  35. Another shooting. University of Nevada Las Vegas. The shooter is dead. No report yet on victims.

    I truly have no words

    1. It won’t stop until we get rid of the damn guns!

      It’s INSANE!!!!!! Was it yet another assault style weapon?

      WHY OH WHY anyone needs that kind of weapon I’ll never know! Makes no sense at all. And I am NOT talking about taking away one’s hunting rifle or even a pistol for personal protection JUST the Assault weapons that are designed to KILL as many people as possible in a short amount of time.

      1. Everyone is playing the lottery every day.

        If you’re in the wrong spot, with what people are allowed to have, your screwed.

        It’s pathetic and depressing.

      2. Agree. And address our mental health system. And stop guns getting legally into the hands of those who so obviously should not have them

  37. I remember that storm 20 years ago.

    I was subbing, a year before getting my current math position.

    I was subbing up in Cohasset, which is a pleasant 8-10 mile ride up route 3A, unless ……. you have to drive back to Marshfield in heavy snow and snowy road conditions.

    It must have cranked late morning into the afternoon, because clearly Cohasset had school that day.

    1. Or wait, was that another storm in Dec 2002. It was a very powdery snow for December.

      Now I’m questioning what I wrote above.

  38. The December 2003 happened over the weekend. I remember no school that Monday with the cleanup that had to take place.

  39. The TV Mets are already setting the stage for a big storm on Sunday/Monday. Do you think the projected wind and rain numbers will come down over the next few days? I know it’s early. Thanks.

    1. The rain numbers will not be that impressive – just typical for that type of set-up.

      All projections I have seen are based on model runs. So yes they will shift around, and as is proper we’ll refine things to detail inside a few days from the event.

      Let me put it this way: This won’t be a historical event.

      2. I listened to 4,7,10 Other than 10 (don’t know his name) it seems that rain won’t be the factor as much as the POTENTIAL winds, especially along the coastal areas. 10 thiught maybe 1-2” rain. They are all careful to say potential.

        Ground is very soft out here. The teak isle displays I have are struggling to stay upright with stakes that have not struggled this much in the eight years I’ve had them. And we have not had much wind. I’ll have airbiund angels with higher winds. Guess that’s fitting ??

  41. The December 5-7, 2003 storm is Taunton’s #3 all-time with 25.9″ (Blizzard of 1978 is #1 at 38.5; #2 is the January 28-29, 2002 storm at 29.1″)
    You’re right, JJ, no school for one week in 2003.

    1. It has to be one if the ones mac and I drive around to see if sidewalks were cleared. If they were not. School would be cancelled.

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