Thursday December 7 2023 Forecast (7:37AM)

86 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)

A north-to-south high pressure elongation, axis just to our west today, will drift eastward across the region by tonight and then off to the east Friday into the weekend. A disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft between 2 stronger centers of the high will drive lots of high level cloudiness across our sky today to limit the sun at times, and we’ll have a very chilly day too. A milder trend begins Friday and continues as we head into and through the weekend. Fair weather continues Friday through Saturday, but we’ll see more in the way of cloudiness Saturday as a trough approaches from the west. This trough is set to swing across our region Sunday and early Monday. Associated with it will be a strong frontal boundary. The parent low of this front will pass to our northwest late Sunday through early Monday. Ahead of the front we can expect an increasing southerly air flow and a tightening pressure gradient means we’ll see a decent wind event. A few showers can come through the region Sunday afternoon, but the main band of rain with the frontal boundary will come through here Sunday night, maybe slowed slightly by an additional wave of low pressure on the front, but once main low pressure is north of our region, the front will swing through more quickly and offshore by early Monday, causing a wind shift to west, but still strong wind potential for a good part of the day Monday, even as we quickly return to dry weather with a chill-down.

TODAY: Sun often filtered by lots of high clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain showers. Highs 56-63. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain and embedded thunderstorms. Lows 50-57. Wind S 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures fall into 40s. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Watch for a minor system to bring clouds / light precipitation around the middle of next week but no major storminess indicated. Temperatures variable, averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Best chance of unsettled weather is mid period, but no major storms indicated. Temperatures near to above normal.

86 thoughts on “Thursday December 7 2023 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Morning low here was 22, lowest on the season so far.

    OCEAN TEMP: 49.1

    Highest snowfall I could find yesterday was 3.5 inches.
    I think Rockland and Hanover and likely surrounding towns.
    Nephew’s wife measured 3.0 inches in South Weymouth.
    So, the event unfolded pretty much as predicted. Nice job to all.

  5. Ok, I’m paying attention! If you could get some snow into the long range forecast over the next 12 days or so that’d be super! 😉
    Also, happy Hannukah for those who celebrate.

      1. Yeah, I know, it’s probably not in the cards this year…. 🙁 it would save me a drive up north though since the 13 year old has insisted she wants to see snow….

  7. Pete showed MAX wind gusts last night for the overnight
    Sunday event and has 62 mph for Boston. Seems rather
    high to me.

    IS this possible?

    thanks

    1. Depending on the strength of the 850 mb jet to what the potential is.

      But, as we see around here, it usually doesn’t mix to 80% of that velocity all the way north to Boston.

      Either its too cool or the heaviest rainfall doesn’t line up over the max 850 mb jet, so usually, max mixing to the surface isn’t realized.

      One of these times, it will though. 🙂

      But, if I was a betting man, I’d say, like the majority of times, we won’t realize max mixing to the boundary layer.

  8. Thank you TK. Wasn’t sure of all the dynamics going from late Sunday into early Monday. Have a better understanding now.

    Saw some wind gust “maps” from TV mets today. Some sensationalism thrown in as expected. Maps showed gusts in the range of 50-60+ MPH.

  12. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850wh&rh=2023120700&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    00z GFS (850mb) wind projection.

    77 knots overhead Boston.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850wh&rh=2023120700&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro projection, 86 knots overhead Boston

    I’ll say one thing, this 850 mb jet is strengthening rapidly on its approach to eastern New England.

    Say those verify, lets round to 80 knots

    If we mix to 30%, its 24 knot gusts
    50% = 40 knot gusts
    70% = 56 knot gusts

    So, now, its just trying to forecast what the mixing will be.

    I’d go somewhere around 40-50% in Boston and higher points south and east of the Boston area.

    1. and of course, slightly lower than 40% mixing as you get further north and west of Boston, when the jet wont be as strong and it might be a little cooler (more stable)

    1. Yes. We’ll have to watch the next 48-72 hrs and see what the trend is on the 850 mb jet.

      Trend weaker, stronger or stay about the same ?

    1. It looks fairly similar, in the big picture, to the GFS and Euro.

      If anyone wants to, loop the 850 mb wind on its passage through New England.

      It’s quite eye opening how the jet is strengthening during its eastern translation with each 3 or 6 hr frame, depending on which model one is looking at.

  16. Thanks TK. Curious how much mixes down Sunday night. I have feeling we get 50+ mph near the coast and maybe a few 60+ on the Cape.

  18. I’m still back on why I don’t remember the 2003 storm. Was that the storm where the governor banned driving after 12:00 pm?

    1. Beats me? I haven’t a clue.

      Totally and completely do NOT remember it.

      In 2003 I was not working and was playing a lot of
      Casino Black Jack (card counting), much like what was
      portrayed in the movie “21”. Btw, my nephew who was
      a Las Vegas Black Jack dealer at the time, appeared in the movie, dealing to Kate Bosworth and Jim Sturgess.

      So that may be the reason I do not remember????
      I don’t know. Seems I still SHOULD have remembered
      a BIG storm like that. Sounds like it was a doozy!!

  19. Saddened and alarmed by the deaths of a police officer and utility worker at a National Grid work site in Waltham. The person who caused these deaths by hitting them with his pickup truck had apparently done something similar 10 years ago. Why wasn’t his license revoked permanently? Seriously. Too often having a driver’s license in the U.S. is perceived as a right. It is NOT a right. It is a privilege. And in my view ANY flagrant and (potentially) deadly violation of that privilege should result in a permanent ban on driving. No ifs, ands, buts or context-dependence nonsense. Vehicles of any kind can be weaponized when in the hands of the wrong people.

        1. Yikes. I’m in yellow/orange on all if I’m reading correctly. We will definitely have flying angels and reindeer if this validates.

    2. Yes, the 12z GFS seems a bit stronger than its 00z run.

      The 500 mb feature is stronger and thus, the feature moves a bit slower. Sfc low is deeper and not progressing quite as fast east northeastward.

      Accordingly, it features a bit of a stronger 850 mb jet over eastern areas compared to 00z.

      Lets see if this trend continues.

  21. I know it is still a few days out but I expect some sort of wind alert to be issued for this storm system.

  22. The 12z EURO also seems a little stronger than its 00z run.

    500 mb feature looks more compact, even a bit more negatively tilted.

    Its 850 mb jet, departing the eastern Mass coastline at 12z Monday morning (hr 96) has winds at 850 mb at 95-100 knots.

      1. Indeed, I don’t think it will be.

        It could be real interesting atop Blue Hill.

        We’ll obviously have to see what the 850mb jet is forecast to be on the Saturday morning available 00z runs from the night before.

        Will they be as assertive on the jet or have backed off some?

        1. I am 8 miles due North of Blue Hill. 🙂
          I used to work across the street from Blue Hill.
          I can remember a day where it gusted to something
          like 90 mph atop the hill and down at the office, perhaps 40-50 mph was all.

          HUGE difference with altitude. 🙂

  24. Question please. My granddaughter and trainer and a few others are planning a trail ride from maybe 9-11 Sunday morning. It’s at a large farm down the street from the barn so doesn’t involve trailering.

    Is there a time period for the winds Sunday?

    Thank you VERY much from both her trainer and Me.

    1. personally, I would think you would be fine. It will be breezy, BUT not the big wind expected overnight. 🙂

      Good luck.

      btw, this is just my opinion.

      btw, is this in Millis? Which farm is it? Off of Causeway St. Or elsewhere? Curious.

  26. Very bad sky forecast by yours truly today. Hah!

    Clouds are way thicker and more widespread than I expected.

    1. No worries. Didn’t even notice. The only thing I’m seeing today are my Christmas and soon Hanukkah lights.

      When I ran early this morning there was a little bit of sun. It was a glorious winter morning. Some ice on the Esplanade Lagoon. Canada geese were trying out their `skating’ skills. I’ll never understand why some weather forecasters (not you, TK) try to cheer us up by saying with a smile that “warmth [or milder days] is on the way.” I saw this last night on the news. Am I really in the minority when I say that days like yesterday and even today are MUCH, MUCH preferred to 55-60F and windy/rainy? I really detest the latter, especially in winter.

  29. As we approach sunset, may the light of the candles on the menorah bring light and joy to a dark and troubled world. Happy Hanukkah!

  33. Snow scorecard for Boston for December…

    Average for the month: 9.1 inches.

    The last 5 years…
    2018: 0.1
    2019: 11.5
    2020: 13.0
    2021: 0.4
    2022: 1.0

    2023 (so far, thru 12/6): 0.2

    It’s far too soon for anybody to say what the December total may be, but I would bet that it’s not 0.2, if I had to say… 🙂

      1. That was a really weird auto-correct. I literally typed 12/7 by accident, deleted the 7 and replaced it with a 6, and suddenly there’s a 16 there. Bizarro.

        That said, the total through 12/16 may still be 0.2, but it won’t be the total for the month. 🙂

          1. As far as I can tell … of course this is weather, and there’s always room for surprises. But forecasting the pattern and the sensible weather as far as I feel confidently, I doubt Boston will add to their snow total in the next 10 days.

  36. https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_concentration_hires.png

    I think Hudson Bay might be just a wee bit behind in ice cover. Oh, let us not forget the Bering Sea.

    As bad as the arctic is, Antarctica is worst.

    https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_daily_concentration_hires.png

    The yellowish lines in the images are where the ice should be. There’s plenty of blue ocean at both ends of the planet where there should be reflective white ice.

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