Wednesday January 17 2024 Forecast (7:34AM)

91 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

Our weather today is controlled by large weather systems – a big low in eastern Canada, and a big high pressure area in the south central US. Between these two features we have a west northwest air flow of cold air with fair weather. However, while weather itself does not present a hazard today, other than making you chilly if you’re outside in the gusty breeze, the real hazard lies underfoot, where any untreated wet/slushy surfaces from yesterday have frozen solid and will remain frozen through today, tonight, and tomorrow as well if not impacted by sun’s heat or treated by someone. Use caution if walking and/or driving over any of these surfaces – and there are many! Back to weather, it’s a quiet but cold one tonight. My Thursday forecast previously read “partly sunny” in response to clouds from a weak disturbance, but it’s become apparent that this disturbance carries enough with it to produce an overcast sky and a period of light snowfall for the region, especially in the I-90 corridor southward, Thursday afternoon and evening. Accumulations from this will be minor, on the order of a dusting to 1/2 inch, but any light accumulation on already icy surfaces is hazardous, and the snow can cover up the ice to make it unseen. So this little system does its part to continue the walking/driving hazard on untreated surfaces. Further, we have another storm to contend with late in the week – Friday afternoon and evening for the most part. The upper air pattern expected doesn’t support a full-on hit of a significant winter storm, but rather a glancing blow of a strong storm evolving just too far offshore to dump maximum snowfall on the region. So for now I expect a light snowfall favoring areas from the I-90 and I-95 belts south and east. This will be followed by a very cold start to the weekend on Saturday. We’ll have to watch for a few flurries or isolated snow squalls as the cold air comes into the region with a little instability from Friday night through Saturday too. I’ll take a closer look at that possibility as we go through the week. Sunday’s weather will be fair and cold with high pressure in control.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. High clouds arrive overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Becoming cloudy. Light snow in the afternoon and early evening, favoring areas along and south of I-90, with a dusting to 1/2 inch. Highs 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing evening. Clouds fill back in overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Afternoon snow, especially I-90 south and I-95 east. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow in the evening, especially I-90 south and I-95 east. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers evening. Clear overnight. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

“January thaw” with milder weather – temperatures near to mostly above normal. After a fair weather beginning, unsettled weather becomes more likely mid to late period, favoring snow/mix at first, then mix/rain eventually. But there are a lot of moving parts to this outlook with much fine-tuning to take place.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

A trend back to colder weather takes place in the final days of January with additional unsettled weather from at least one storm system – rain/mix/snow chances.

91 thoughts on “Wednesday January 17 2024 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Final coating of Freezing rain/sleet, then snow on top of the earlier snow yesterday.

    A sloppy WInter’s Day it was.

    Overnight low was 18, coldest of the Winter season for me and also the first time it has hit the teens at my location.

    January 17th and the ocean temp at Boston buoy is 43.5!!!
    That is truly amazing!!! Quite a bit above average.

    1. ORH = 23.4
      BOS = 7.5
      NYC = 1.9

      And BOS may cut into ORH’s lead with the Friday system as well assuming the coastline gets the most snow for a change. Not that ORH will have that much to really worry about just yet.

  10. I have always wondered why the NWS has Worcester as “ORH”. I don’t see the correlation.

    TK or anyone else know?

    1. The NWS has nothing to do with it. The FAA comes up with the 3-letter identifiers for all airports.

      From Wikipedia: The airport code is believed to have originated from the word “Worcester”. “W” cannot be used as the first letter of the identifier for airports in the United States, and “ORC” was already assigned. The origin of the “H” is unclear and might have been arbitrary

  12. I’m quite impressed with town and state road crews. I didn’t see any late starts. My son said once he was off his own side street the roads into Boston were clear.

      1. Boston streets are just as clear as a 90 degree day and I put them to good use late last night coming home from work. Many sidewalks including my own are a different story.

        I don’t believe any streets including the sides ever really got snow covered yesterday from the start.

    1. Well, wouldn’t that then be WRA

      How does one get Worcester Regional Airport from ORH?

      I’m with Philip,

  20. If I’ve interpreted them correctly, the GFS, GDPS and RDPS (same thing?) all have somewhere btwn 18z and 00z Friday afternoon/evening, a little enhancement in that favored Boston southwest suburbs down to just NW of Marshfield.

    Brief time of inflow of NE to NNE wind at 925 mb.

    Talking a coating to 2 inches, but, we’ll take it.

    1. Tom are we possibly looking at more down this way vs Boston . My son is going to MGM for a concert Friday evening & will be driving home from Boston after 11pm

      1. We’ll have to watch the models through tomorrow and make sure the overall system doesn’t trend a little closer.

        I do think there’s a signal for a little ocean enhancement but its not a big deal, amt wise.

        However, it will be cold, so any snow would probably make an impact on the roadways.

  26. Upcoming snowfall forecasts…

    Thursday PM… Traces, dustings, coatings, no more than 1/2 inch.

    Friday PM… 1-3 widespread except 3-6 Plymouth County to Cape Cod. Not necessarily a final call.

    1. Yay! Thanks TK!

      I am off to watch my Celtics play tonight. Hoping they continue their home game winning streak!

  28. Latest from NWS

    Given the cold temperatures, took this opportunity to increase the
    SLRs to near 19:1 for much of the region on Friday. So, while there
    won`t be much QPF to work with, the possibility a saturating DGZ
    between 5,000-8000ft deep with reasonable omega will result in
    efficient snowfall rates. Some uncertainty comes into play about how
    quickly the DGZ saturates, but for now, believe there is sufficient
    evidence to support a wide swath of 1-2″ snowfall along and south of
    the I-90 corridor with higher amounts, up to 3-4″, likely across the
    Cape and Plymouth county thanks to the aforementioned ocean
    enhancement of snowfall.

  31. TK, I want to commend you for providing us with accurate forecasts and explanations. Long before yesterday’s event you stated several times that you didn’t think the system would be as flat as the models projected. You were right. And now it appears that Friday’s event will not be as far to our south as the models projected. You were right.

    I wish I could say the same about my economic forecasts. I’m sometimes right, but usually wrong. Of course, I can use the excuse that it’s economics, a social science involving human behavior and external shocks which no-one can accurate forecast.

  32. I can’t help but be disappointed if all we get is a couple messy storms with a few inches of snow out of the most active storm pattern of the winter.

  33. Spectacular winter’s day. Mid to upper 20s is close to my ideal of low 20s for highs during the day. And tonight we’ll definitely get into the teens (last night it made it to 19F briefly). I live for this kind of weather. Though Tuesday’s event was quite minor here, having a blanket of a bit of snow and ice is comforting. I even like the crunching sound it makes when walking on sidewalks.

    1. Yes, sitting when you’re outside in this weather isn’t pleasant. But I found that a brisk walk this evening – about 3 miles – felt good. The first half mile is cold, but after that the body adjusts.

      What I appreciate about Boston’s weather (and the region of SNE as a whole) is the contrasts. So tonight it’s in the teens. Everything is dormant. Just 5 months from now it could very well be a tropical evening, 75F, and everything is the opposite of dormant.

      1. I loved sitting and enjoying nature earlier. My guess is if I had not been out then, I’d be out now. It’s a wonderful way to absorb the beauty around us.

  36. that presser with Mayo and Kraft was very cringy. Not getting a good vibe. Of course the stupid media like it

    1. It’s not what I wanted but the man deserves a chance to prove himself before I determine if I like him or not .

    2. Everything is pointing to Kraft meddling being a major factor with the stuff going on the past several years. Now it seems like the front office is going to be a mess. Robyn Glaser who has no football experience but worked for the krafts in another business area, is now going to be involved in the contracts for players and have Wolf and Groh in charge of drafting and free agency signings. this has fail and many short comings and probably very much at Mayo’s expense. I do not dislike Mayo, but this whole situation is gonna stink.

      2. Would you be happy if Josh comes back as OC , I actually would . Also looks like Bourne will be back & a former RB is begging to get a shot at coaching

        1. I would be indifferent. In one case, Josh is known to get the best out of his qbs and can pretty much run the offense. With that said I think he goes where BB goes. Another thing is that I think Bill O’Brian is also a good choice to keep. Now hear me out. I know the offense stunk this year, but I do not believe that is Bill O’Brians fault once so ever. The offense side of the ball struggled massively due to inconsistency over the past several years. I do not think they could go wrong with Daniels or Maye with the third pick as a qb and then get a wide reciever with their 2nd. Or they could go Harrison, and go with a Mccarthy/Nix and let them sit a year for development as a free agent qb or Jones is qb1

    3. Of course it was cringy. We’re not used to a head coach actually talking and making coherent points. I’ll take cringy over snorts into the microphone anyday

        1. We must have listened to two different pressers. Of course searching for Kraft and Mayo leads to interesting results. I don’t see cringy anywhere. Mayo was not a choice I was hoping for but that’s a done deal. I thought he was respectful of both Kraft and the reporters. Something we have not seen in decades. I wish him and my team the best.

          1. i don’t care if a coach respect the media, the good media people actually liked BB, the ones that got “disrespected” were the ones that kept on asking the same dumb questions. I do not mind Mayo being the next coach, wouldn’t have mind Vrabel either. What I have an issue is the load of crap called Kraft. I have no respect for the man.

  39. Joshua thank you 🙂

    But let’s see what happens Friday before we see if I’m right. I do still feel the same as mentioned earlier, even after a quick glance at 00z data.

  40. FYI:

    Boston’s average snowfall for January through the 17th: 7.6 inches.

    Boston’s snowfall for January 2024 through the 17th. 7.3 inches.

    Normal.

      1. I was talking about January 1-17 in reference to the January snow forecast The December one already verified. 🙂

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