Thursday January 18 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)

87 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

A disturbance will bring lots of clouds and a touch of light snow later today. A stronger storm moving just south of the region will be just far enough away to spare us a larger snowfall, but close enough for a light to moderate snowfall on Friday and Friday night. The moderate amounts should be confined to the MA South Shore / Cape Cod regions due to ocean enhancement. The coldest weather of the winter so far arrives Saturday, possibly accompanied by a few snow showers, but we’re looking at a mainly dry and cold weekend overall. Fair weather continues with a temperature moderation for Monday.

TODAY: Becoming cloudy. Light snow in the afternoon and early evening, favoring areas along and south of I-90, with a dusting to 1/2 inch. Highs 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Afternoon snow, especially I-90 south and I-95 east. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow in the evening, especially I-90 south and I-95 east. Accumulation 1-3 inches except under 1 inch Merrimack Valley MA northward and 3-6 inches Plymouth County MA to Cape Cod. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers evening. Clear overnight. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

Milder weather during this period with temperatures averaging near to above normal but no major warm-up indicated. Also looks like a fairly unsettled stretch of weather quite possible, starting on January 24. More detail to come in future updates.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Trend back to colder, additional storminess possible including snow chances.

87 thoughts on “Thursday January 18 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    ho-hum

    down to 17 here this morning, coldest of the season

    ocean temp at boston buoy down to 43 3.

    Not impressed with snow set up at all for tomorrow.

    Not impressed with anything at the moment. at least it is winter cold
    that’s sonething

  4. Thanks TK. Coldest run of the winter this morning- two miles in 8 degree wind chill. Half marathon in Charleston, SC Saturday. Will be chilly at start but bearable – low to mid 30s – pretty ideal temps in sun as long as breeze isn’t too stiff. They are calling for a low of 22 there on Sunday.

    1. Enjoy Charleston. It holds a special place in our hearts. Wishing you the best for the marathon. Is it over the Ravanel Bridge?

      1. Hi Vicki – I am not sure – I have yet to look at the route but expect to do so on the flight tomorrow. Low 60s there in afternoon so I will enjoy that for a few hours before temps crash.

  11. 12Z HRRR is not very impressed with snow for tomorrow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011812&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z NAM, even less so, in fact MUCH less so

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011812&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12z 3KM NAM virtually ZILCH

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011812&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    What’s up with all of that. One or more of these models
    is MISSING something or what??????????????????

    WOW! is all I can say

  15. I am wondering if the 12Z runs show little or no snow for tomorrow is due to most of the 925 mb winds more from the North than the NE and also down some in velocity???

    1. Ok, then if there are no changes, would you care to discuss
      with us what’s up with the 12Z runs and how will the snow be produced. There is a disconnect as i see it right now.

      Obviously, I am MISSING something that I clearly do not understand. Perhaps others as well? I don’t know, but with my
      limited knowledge, I SMELL A RAT. 🙂

      Cheers and thanks

  17. Thanks TK!

    Agree with your numbers, maybe leaning towards the lower end in most cases. Another “close but no” cigar in terms of a major storm, but clearly a much different pattern than the past couple winters (as advertised) with these more consistent cold and snow opportunities.

    Fairly significant, Pacific driven warm-up on track pretty soon, but as has also been discussed, “warmer” does not mean “no snow” this time of year especially when the pattern remains active. Don’t be surprised if freezing rain enters into the conversation multiple times over the next couple weeks also.

    Long long range: Pacific will remain important. Growing indications of another significant Pacific jet extension in early February. Could keep things stormy for much of the CONUS, but also may keep deeper cold at bay…

  19. Based on the low number of comments there doesn’t seem to be much excitement about the upcoming “storm”. Sigh…

    1. None whatsoever from me.

      Remember the Strong Signal for a big storm around the 19th-20th. So much for that!

    1. Ugh! My first time in Charleston and I will get the winter version – brief warm up tomorrow and then back to 20s-30s this weekend- will let you know how it goes – fun way to see a city is to run around in it!

      1. It’s a beautiful city. Not sure how long you’ll stay but isle of palms is a fun visit. Boone Hall in mt pleasant too. But used to be free of charge but now is expensive. Sea Biscuit Cafe is yummy on isle of palms. My youngest has a long list of restaurants

  25. I heard to news anchor statements on WBZ radio this morning that made me almost drive off the road…

    1: “Another storm is coming in for the weekend. The coast is going to get pummelled again.”

    Really? You mean the storm that glances the region with light snow on Friday (before the weekend) and doesn’t do anything to the coast?

    2: “(Reporter name) is at Plum Island, where there are more tumbleweeds than people!”

    Huh?! I don’t even know how to respond to that one…

    1. Was that Plum Island, Arizona???

      pummelled????????????

      Good grief! This person should be FIRED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. It’s the same thing we’ve been hearing. Ever since iHeart bought them, the product is basically shit. I do listen for a traffic report or two, and an occasional opinion from AccuWx (out of curiousity more than anything), but I’m saddened by how what was once a great news station has gone down the proverbial tubes. 🙁

        We’ve heard so much talent there over the years. So many great reporters and anchors. And I know the current anchors are just following work orders, but the entire thing is sad.

        1. Truly is!

          ALL of corporate America in all fields is going down the tubes. GREED all over the place.

          We are being shorted on most products, paying more for less! Most products are pure shit not fit for animals.

          Even coca cola tastes horrid like chemicals. I used to LOVE coke. Can’t dink it or Pepsi anymore
          DISGUSTING!!! I could go on and on and on……

        2. Despite the fact that I make my living on terrestrial radio, I have been a SiriusXM subscriber for nearly a decade and will never go back to over the air radio.

          1. Those are 1-2 (lighter) and 2-3 (darker).

            If you are looking at the point totals, you can see 2″ in either one. 🙂

    1. I haven’t changed anything in my forecast. Probably a greater chance that the amount will be toward the lower side of the range though.

          1. I thought he said 1-3 Vicki I’m off my game this week , if I mis heard I apologize. I’m off so whatever it does it does

            1. It’s a fine line. I only think pembroke is in 2/3 Its why I asked. I wasn’t sure. SS folks will know better

            1. Nah. It’s just his forecast. It’s all about interpretation of information.

              The reason why I have kept the slightly higher amounts for the South Shore is based on the short range guidance often under-doing events like this on a fairly localized scale.

              There are a couple short range models (there are several) that dump up to 5+ inches still, but in very small areas. In media, the way the demand and presentation is, the tendency is to generalize and then not always get to mention specifics due to time constraints.

              1. I should add, the snow-to-water ratio is going to be close to 20 to 1 with this event.

                Just 0.10 inch of melted and you’re already at 2 inches of snow. Some of the short range guidance provides 0.20-0.30 inch melted. At 20:1, that’s 4+, taking the model verbatim. Even at slightly under 20:1, it’s similar.

                1. When does your son drive to and from Boston, SSK. I can’t believe he is old enough. Seems like yesterday that he was just a teenager

              1. He’s 19 Vicki 20 in April . I’ll be dropping him off around 1 & picking him up around 11 by Fenway

  29. It’s been an interesting, albeit largely disappointing, winter thus far. Our weather and that of the U.K. has been quite similar. This is somewhat unusual, at least in my experience of observation. Usually the patterns are quite different there from here. In summer, when it’s warm/hot and dry there it’s usually somewhat unsettled here. And when it’s mild and unsettled there in winter, usually it’s cold and dry here with perhaps a clipper system moving through. Well, this winter we’re mostly in sync. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awRL_Rn7uWY

    1. When I say “in sync” I don’t mean similar weather all the time, but mostly it’s similar and when shifts occur in patterns there they happen here a couple of days later, or vice versa.

    2. My friend in Scotland is reporting a brutal stretch recently. They just had over a foot of snow there and the temps have frigid. This is the second such stretch they’ve had so far.

  30. I saw mention of plum island. Was it the plum island in MA or the one off the coast of ny/ct where our Lyme disease came from. Most radio forecasts are and should be for entertainment value …..that’s been the rule for decades.

    1. The reported was in MA.

      I have always thought radio forecasts should be the same as TV. Good information. But in this case it was really just anchor banter. I think the owners are literally telling them to comedy improv on the air. Some of the things coming out of the traffic reporter’s mouth, frankly, I’m not even sure should be allowed on the air. 😉

      That station has fallen so far since changing owners. 🙁

      1. It was wbz radio weather that caused me to stop listening many years ago. They may have gotten better after I had stopped listening but clearly they couldn’t hold it.

        And thanks on which plum island. I have friends who had a cottage there

        1. You’re welcome.

          They do use some of the WBZ team which is good, but I’ve never been a huge fan of AccuWeather, at least since the late 1980s. They did have some good forecasters and broadcasters, but overall, not a favorite of mine.

          I did like Elliot Abrams, Joe Sobel, and others. 🙂

  31. Pasta scores 44 seconds into the game to give the Bruins a 1-0 lead over the Avs. Now to keep this up for another 59 playing minutes… haha!

  32. Indeed, TK, Scotland has been quite cold and snowy this week. England hasn’t seen much snow and the cold has been mitigated. But still it’s been below normal lately, similar to here.

  34. And after 5 goals in between between the 2 teams, Pasta closes the scoring with his 3rd goal of the night. Bruins win 5-2. 🙂

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