Thursday June 6 2024 Forecast (7:41AM)

73 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

A stretch of unsettled weather takes us through this 5-day period, but don’t have it in your mind that we have 5 overcast and rainy days ahead of us. We’ll find plenty of “nice” weather in this stretch too. The cause of the unsettled pattern is an upper level low pressure area spinning around the Great Lakes region, gradually to shift eastward with time through the weekend into early next week. This represents a cold pool aloft which will often make the atmosphere unstable. Today is going to be the cloudiest day and there will be two main shower episodes, one this morning to midday favoring southern and eastern areas, especially the South Coast, and the other which holds off until this evening before moving through from southwest to northeast. This leaves a good part of today rain-free, though not with much (if any) sun outside of some sneaky rays to start the day in some locations. From Friday through Monday we have “spokes of energy” rotating around the upper low bringing us enhanced chances for showers at times, especially when the sun is allowed to act on the landscape during the daylight hours. It’s nearly impossible to time these shower threats other than following trends on short range guidance which can help at least narrow down the greater threat windows. Friday evening and Sunday morning seem to be the current “higher threat time frames” so to speak, but just keep in mind that passing shower can occur at any time during the coming days. Watch radar if you have outdoor plans, and check updates here of course (as well as other trusted sources such as NWS and local media). Overall temperatures will be cooler the next several days.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, favoring areas south of I-90 this morning and west of I-495 end of day. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm this evening. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to W overnight.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly thunderstorms. Highs 65-75. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 67-74. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 54-61. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Highs 66-73. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)

Weak upper level low pressure returns, but surface high pressure should eliminate any shower chances early in the period before a weak trough helps to bring back the chance of diurnal showers mid to late period. No organized significant storm systems or significant hot weather expected.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

A more zonal pattern evolves during this period with a spell of warmer to hotter weather possible toward the end of the period. While a couple shower / t-storm chances exist, the overall pattern is drier here.

73 thoughts on “Thursday June 6 2024 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you Tk

    made 85 here yesterday with overnight llow of 69.
    Currently 70

    Ocean temp: 61 7 (Boston buoy)

      1. Only an educated guess, but I would say around 55 give or take.

        I found this on the buoy site:

        https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/view_climplot.php?station=44013&meas=st

        I presume the bottom of the red is the start of the month
        and the top of the red is the end of the month and the litte black dot in the middle is the month’s average.

        So based on that presumption, the beginning of June average is about 54.5, so June 6th average woud be 55 or 56. Something like that.

        Hope this helps. 🙂

  5. It’s a STICKORAMA this morning! MOST NOTICEABLE!!!!
    I am sweating bullets sitting here at my computer!!!!

    1. Thanks Tom, I didn’t even realize it, but a brief show DID pass through here a little while ago. 🙂

      1. I am hoping we will get a decent shower at some point. My grey car is green 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I like Celtics green, but not pollen green 🙂

            1. An area that collects a crazy amount pollen! Can’t even sit on our front porch right now. Sadly rain won’t help so need to break out the hose.

              1. Well what is it? No one has really answered my question. Is it MYTHICAL? 🙂

                btw, FINISHED WILDFIRE!
                Most enjoyable.

                Now i’m into the 16th season of HEARTLAND 🙂

                1. According to our trusty friend Google, a farmers porch is “a wide and narrow front porch extending across all or most of the home. It is where homeowners sit confronting boisterous children entering or crossing their property. Get off my lawn!

                2. What Chris said. Google images. A neighbor just had one added to her house. It’s lovely. If I had one, I’d do a corner of it screened

                3. What Chris said . Entire front of house with nice width & roof & has white vinyl railings & wide front steps . I have 4 hooks across the front so I can hang planters ( although I’ve stopped this because the birds have ruined them but I heard put citrus Indide the plant

  9. Thank you, TK

    Is it possible to get a heavy rain. This drizzle makes my car look as if it has tiny yellow craters all over it.

    1. Yeah, showed the Mrs. the radar with dark pink in the middle
      of the echo. I told her that unless it is the most incredible intensity rain most often it indicates hail, which indeed it did.

  12. Thanks, TK

    Jimmy B, looking at the radar and trying to wish all the rain away from Slocum Road.

    Have a great day and congratulations!

    1. Thank you for the positive thoughts Captain! We are a GO for an outside graduation at 5 – We have been watching this area of rain since last night when it entered South Jersey. Should wind down by 1 and we will be good to go. Happy for the 172 students. They deserve it.

  15. Such a sad story about the person who yesterday drove through a barrier off of an I-93 overpass in Boston before landing on the ramp 40 feet below. While the signage isn’t great there, and at night it can be tricky, I watched the video and it showed the vehicle seemingly speeding up as it crashed into the barrier. There was no attempt to take a left turn. I think this was suicide, sadly. Of course, I don’t know for sure. It’s incredible that no-one else was injured.

    1. Just awful. It could have been a health situation too. I am not sure rhey will ever find out since the car went up in flames

  16. Spread the truth about the Joro spider instead of sharing those ridiculous media stories…

    The spider is a type of orb weaver and is harmless to humans.

    The spider has been in North America since the early 2010s.

    The spider cannot fly, but it can drift in the wind with the help of webbing like pretty much any other spider with webbing.

    This is not the only kind of spider that lives in the city, despite what many of the news articles will try to have you believe.

    This spider makes a huge contribution to controlling the mosquito population. Mosquitoes are far far more dangerous to us than these spiders will ever be. Ever.

    Still in search of real news these days. 😉

    But I’ll continue to fight the good fight through the use of the scientific method and honest communication. 🙂

          1. Yes, sir. I have favorites when it comes to climate. I was pleased to hear Harvey uses the same. But they are all easy to vet.

  17. Umiujag, Canada, about 1/3rd of the way up the eastern coastline of Hudson Bay.

    Average high temp on June 6th per Environment Canada is 10C, which is 50F.

    Current temp is 31C = 88F.

    Nothing like being 38F above average and they may go higher.

    This is no laughing matter.

    Between a persistent easterly flow and above avg temps all spring, Hudson Bay is melted out like never seen before in the satellite era.

    It has so much open water that should be covered by ice.

    Which in theory, with warmer waters in Hudson Bay this summer (because the water is going to accept more solar radiation than it should), don’t expect the Canadian airmasses to be as cool or dry as they should be, particularly July thru September. Total negative feedback loop here.

    1. Beyond sad. There is so much damage to our marine life because of the steady increase in water temps. It is truly heartbreaking .

  21. Nearest showers with “some” thunder is just West of Albany New York, What are the chances it traverses Eastward to our area? and if so, how intact?

    Save for the briefest shower around 11AM or so, it has been a rain free day and around 75, Pete last night said there would be a cool Easterly wind and about 69 would do it. NOPE. not so.

  22. JPD. It took me a while to figure out who the ex husband is in wildfire. He was sully on Dr quinn. Another favorite series of mine

  26. Norilsk, Siberia is an awful place for many reasons, including the fact that it’s considered the most polluted city on earth, it’s an open air prison (special permission is needed to travel in and out), its life expectancy is 59, it’s impoverished, and it’s bitterly cold much of the year. Though I wouldn’t mind having some of the Norilsk’s cold it would get a little tiresome when it’s snowing in June, as it did yesterday: https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1798800058781225122

  27. Thanks TK.

    So much for the 90% chance of rain today that I saw on some forecasts yesterday. Two hundredths of an inch in the rain gauge today and appears that may be the final total.

  28. TK, interested to hear your take on this tweet last month from Ben Noll…

    Wondering why it’s been really rainy where you are?

    April 2024 was the moistest April on record for the planet, continuing a run of record-moist months that dates back to last year.

    62% of Earth had above normal moisture content during the month, which is being strongly influenced by warming seas and the remnant effect of El Niño, whereby the jet stream transports warmth and moisture out of the tropics and toward the poles. These global drivers contribute to regional and localized extremes, like those experienced in Dubai, southern Brazil, China, and Europe during April.

    This is not being driven by Tongan volcanic eruption: the anomalies shown here are indicative of tropospheric patterns where the vast majority of the atmosphere’s water is located and not the stratosphere where the volcanic moisture anomalies were most pronounced.

    Localized to regional dry patches can and do still exist, forced by other oscillations and modes, but recently they have been more the exception rather than the rule. Western Australia, southern Chile, the Philippines, British Columbia, Florida, and parts of the Caribbean were dry zones during April.

    In my opinion, this moistening trend is just as important as the warming trend as it relates to the potential increase in flood frequency and/or intensity into the future.

    https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1787802742188282275?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

    1. And in response to this question “Does the Tongan water ever come down ?” he said this….

      That’s not how it works. While it may sound “logical” that water spewed up into the atmosphere must come down somewhere, the volcanic eruption rocketed water up into the stratosphere. The weather happens in a different part of the atmosphere, called the troposphere. Extra water vapor in the stratosphere can contribute to a slight warming effect on the ground, but it won’t come back to the ground in the form of massive dumps of rain.

      https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1788025483092992037?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

      1. I nearly completely disagree with him. For one thing, the water vapor up there is very possibly a bigger greenhouse effect than he realizes. … There was a nearly immediate spike in activity after that eruption. You don’t just toss that aside and say it’s nothing. That’s not a very responsible approach application of the scientific method, which actually works.

        I’ll elaborate more on this soon.

        He may want to remind himself that El Nino is done, and the same thing is still happening. That tells you there’s more to the story.

        He is correct and I agree on the notion that the water up there isn’t coming back in the form of big clumps of rain. But I think he’s missing the point. The water vapor is a major greenhouse gas. That’s a scientific proven fact! So you can’t just discount that part of it. And while we have yet to observe this much of it in the stratosphere, it’s a reasonable assumption to make that it will still have the same effect of trapping radiation and increasing the global temperature. (We’ll work on learning the magnitude). It’s that greenhouse effect that is going to act in combination with longer term warming and (for a while) El Nino, while we had it, to enhance the entire process. I’ve spoken of this elsewhere and been accused of being a climate change denier. No. Wrong. Anybody who accuses me of this is very, very mistaken, and needs to re-evaluate their ability to understand words and their meaning. I’ll defend myself to the end on this one, and rightfully so. I won’t let anybody put that label on me, ever.

        It’s going to take us years to learn all the effects of this volcano. We already know for a fact that other big eruptions had big impacts. So why is this one just so easily discounted. Foolish. Sorry, but you don’t discount or dismiss data “just because”. That’s downright foolish.

      1. We’ll see more of these.

        There is TOO MUCH dismissal of a huge event. Why dismiss it? It’s because people think it’s going to take away from the focus on other causes of climate shifting. No. There are people who will do that, but real scientists won’t. They take ALL INFO into account, not just dismiss it.

        I can’t be any more clear stating this.

        Why did Pinatubo count but Hunga Tonga doesn’t? One was land, one was undersea.They both have huge impact. Just differently. Let science do its thing so we can find out the details.

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