The Week Ahead

174 Comments

9:20PM

A respite from the cold pattern of November is what we’ll see this first full week of December as the overall pattern is mild and rather uneventful. A storm track north of the region will bring frontal passages early Monday morning, Wednesday, and sometime over the weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy with episodes of rain showers pushing from west to east. Lows 41-46. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Any showers exiting via Cape Cod & the Islands early morning. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-40. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-60. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late. Lows 45-50. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers in the morning. Partly sunny with  isolated snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 50-55 early then dropping through the 40s. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to NW 15-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 41.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 47.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 38. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. AM rain showers. Low 35. High 45.

174 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks TK.

    BB in his blog talked about frigid air coming in toward mid month through January. We shall see what happens with the NAO which will dictate storminess.

    1. Totally agree JJ. It would be like living in the arctic or antarctic. Like a winter desert. Sure, ski areas would be able to make snow, but they would blow through their budgets real quick. Can only open so many trails without natural snow.

  3. Nick – I have not taken any met courses either. I have a BA in Business Management from Northeastern and have been a weather nut since I was about 8. I lived in several different places as a kid including Illinois, Ohio, Virginia and Maryland. I lived here in the early 80’s and then we came back in the late 80’s to stay when I was in high school. I too used to draw maps as a kid too and look forward to watching the evening forecasts on what was then just channel 4, 5 and 7 before cable came out. I work in the finance industry now, but my family, friends and co-workers often joke around with me that I am in the wrong profession.

    I enjoy reading everyone’s thoughts here and have learned alot from everyone.

    Glad you asked the question, because I think we all learned a little bit more about each other today!

  4. I like the light snow “covering” we had 🙂 It made the Christmas music more magical 🙂

    I really like the winter picture at the top of the blog 🙂

  5. towards nicks qyestions. I have started to collect data from my outdoor weather station when i was half way through 6 grade and have just added to that weather station and all the info it gathers comes right to my computer 🙂 you see how much of a weather nut i am. :D… I am at college going into a 2 year degree of life science which goes off to enviomental ,biology, ecology, geology, meteorolgy, marine biology and a few other sciences. Im all ready starting the process of minoring in Meteorology.

  6. Canada is going to have a whole lot of cold air in it. There is a direct relationship with the snowcover in Siberia. Without a big ridge in western Canada the delivery will be limited. Instead, passing low pressure areas mostly north of the area will grab pieces of this air and pull it in, first in a very limited fashion, then later a little bit more significantly.

    Still see the pattern staying predominantly dry. To me, there is no “wasted cold”. It’s just a cold, dry pattern, which I like anyway, and would make me especially happy because it would mean my long range forecast is verifying. 🙂

  9. Figured I’d say thanks to Vicki, Old Salty and Matt here so you’d see it. Great ideas for my little club!

    1. I’d love to hear how it goes and what you end up doing. I sure did love science fairs and clubs…..my guess is most on this blog did as well!!

  10. Is there a point with each different weather model, where it becomes more or less likely to verify? For example, is the Euro better long range, GFS and NAM short range? In winter 2010-2011 I noticed when watching the AccuWeather PRO site, 90-95% of the time the 15 day would forecast a system coming through for consecutive days from day 12-15…then when the system got to day 11 on the 15 day it would vanish, complete opposite forecast (sunny no precip). It would stay off the 15 day from day 11 to day 6 or 7 where it would pop back up and stay for the remainder of the 15 day forecast. Between day 6 or 7 and the time the system moved in, the only thing that would change would be precip type/amount. Any reasoning behind this or pure coincidence.

  11. Our outside light was accidentally left on overnight. We now have what is easily 100 winter months plastered to the storm door window on one side of the light and the bow window on the other side. It is absolutely disgusting.

  12. Here are the 0Z Euro predicted NAO indices:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif

    2012120300z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: 111.691032
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: 42.850914
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: 23.7655773
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: 7.94679213
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -98.690567
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -156.829758
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -110.381256
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -94.1803207
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -159.059219
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: -268.036835
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: -306.226257

    What troubles me is that all of the models depict an inside runner/Lakes cutter
    during the period of Negative Indices???? How does this happen? 😀

  13. Don’t know O.S. other than maybe such a strong block sends them inland. Just think of Sandy and the negative NAO with it. That thing was damn near in the open Atlantic OTS and it still ended up being an inside runner.

  14. If it wasn’t for the “cold” front this morning, the Boston area would have easily made it to 70 degrees today…

  15. I did not buy the inside runner solution with the NAO negative with the nusiance event that happened at the end of November. The models did eventually trend to a low developing south of us over the Atlantic. Will see what happens here.
    NAO AO both negative but the PNA is not in the positive territory yet.

  16. well kept my sleeding hill going for a good chunk of time. now down to around 2.5 to 3 inches of man made snow left but i usually close it when it there are no spots over 3 inches. Sadly i think i need to close it for a while. today is the last day. until the next round of cold or natural snow comes. its going to feel like march the first half of this week.

  17. Wxrisk.com
    44 minutes ago
    *** ALERT MAJOR WINTER STORM THREAT DEC 9-10 for the UPPER PLAINS -UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY – W. GREAT LAKES **

    strong arctic cold front develops strong LOW on the front… 1st True Arctic HIGH comes south driving the fron
    t S and E into the Plains and Midwest. EAST of the front WARM with strong T-Storms..

    DEC 9 — SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE over ILL MO KY IND MI OH

    DEC 10 overall of New England and Mid Atlantic states … this time of year the TIMING of the front can be really important.

  18. Sometimes when you get a strong enough storm that is enough to change the pattern. Will see what happens here.
    Snowicane 2010 comes to mind when that ended up being the last of the snow for the Mid Atlantic which got clobbered that winter. Irene of 2011 when the NAO after that remained positive for a very long time which was a big factor why the winter was so mild and the lack of snowfall.

    1. i thought it was called a snowcane with no i or a wintercane with no i. im learning something everyday lol

  19. I just don’t get how it can be such an inside runner with a NAO that negative. It screams no way that’s happening.

  20. I am wondering what the models are seeing that we are not. A negative NAO usually translates to storm development on the east coast.

  22. The NAO is forecast to go positive the next few days, then back negative. However there is usually a lag effect before a different teleconnection phase really affects a pattern. That storm should help get us into a more favorable pattern for an east coast storm.

  23. It’s ridiculously warm outside. At least it feels that way. Deja vu. December 2011 all over again. I am not yet buying the long-range forecasts for cold air coming in anytime soon. Any forecast beyond 7 days out is so subject to error. The next 7 days look brutal for a winter lover like myself.

    1. It’s 53 here but feels warmer doesn’t it? I’m thinking pre-dinner cocktails on the deck again 😉

    2. I agree Joshua………another 3 or 4 days of pushing the cold further back into December….and it will be January.

  24. Just take a look at the GFS that is coming out, I guess to this armchair met I have a hard time seeing that pattern with the NAO so negative. The GFS has a monster storm down near KY and then bam into Maine 6 hours later? Just

  25. I mean look at this craziness on the GFS long range, a low in Maine but heavy snow in Boston?

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121203%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=372&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F03%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

      2. Amen! I don’t think I have ever seen something depicted
        on the GFS 384 hours out EVER verify! 😀 😀

      1. Hadi knows we’re not being mean. I’d like what he posted to
        happen as much as he does. AIN’T Gonna happen! 😀

  28. Was out in the car at lunch. Car thermometer reading 59 Degrees!
    AND that was after a cold front passage! 😀

  30. Textbook lakes cutter. The cold air on the back side with the accumulating snow and out in front the mild air with the rain and even the possiblity of thunderstorms. I hope this is the storm to change the pattern and winter will start after this storm.

    1. JJ, That would be nice. Hope so, but fear not.

      After last Winter, Just don’t know what to expect. 😀

    2. Funny though, not much snow accumulation showing up with that one, even on the backside. Doesn’t start accumulating till it gets up into Canada.

  31. For sure Lakes cutter…but boy it gets cold after the storm.

    I wish that GFS would happen, but I know it’s a gtd it will not.

    1. retrac I was amazed in November when my sister in law called several times from Atlanta and she had colder weather than we did.

    1. I’ll second your opinion on that. Not sure if I’d add the smily face emoticon. But, everyone has their weather preference.

  36. I’m reading the comments above and feeling the frustration of the next several days……I can relate. This is how I feel when its June 3rd and its cool or worse yet, cool and damp. I’d be looking at the calendar knowing decreasing light starts in less than 3 weeks and that in a little more than 2+ months, it starts getting tougher to maintain summertime warmth.

    So, at our location, deep winter and summer just dont last more than 6 to 10 weeks, and the other 32 to 40 weeks of the year are hybrid seasons, take away 3 weeks for autumn and 1 week for spring.

    1. I agree Tom, we don’t get that 2-3 months of deep winter, i actually can’t remember when we had a winter that lasted from Dec 1st-March 1st

      1. Assuming that I understand your meaning of “dead winter”…2010-2011 was certainly a good example. 😉

  37. The winter of 95-96 with over 100 inches of snow winter lasted a while. There was accumulating snow in April. Even the winter of 2010-11 which some compared to the winter of 95-96 only was bad for six weeks from the end of December till beginning of February.

  38. I think the key will be after the next 10 days, its a given we will be above average over the next 10 days. What happens after is the big question!!! 🙂

  39. I thought it was snowing on my way home from work, then I realized I was driving through swarms of moths. Call me crazy but I feel like we were talking about the moths being out this very same time last year

    2. Those are the winter moths. They are about a week later than last year. They have been around since the 1950s but in this part of the country they are in a high cycle.

        1. They first appeared in New England in the 1950s, not long after appearing in North America via Europe.

    3. I was just coming here to say my husband just got home and said the same thing. I don’t remember them being this bad. My youngest seems to remember them being this bad in either 09 or 10

        1. She just confirmed it was thanksgiving 2009 which was nov 26. Amazing what up you remember when you are driving around with an infant to get them to take a nap 🙂

  40. The latest 6-10/8-14 day CPC has us very warm and wet. I guess so much for the forecast of a -NAO for mid-month. 🙁

    Do you agree with any of this TK?

    1. I would guess not because her forecasted dry and cold. If we take models with a grain of salt beyond 7 day then I would do the same with the Cpc. If something happens it we will see it 4 to 5 days out and not at 384.

  41. Winter is canceled! Ski and plow companies are in for another bankruptcy type of season. What a shame. Il check back in when Tom begins his extended daylight posts in late February. 🙂

    1. LOL ……. late February……first one’s coming December 22nd. Not going to ignore the 3 second gain !!!! 🙂

  42. Pete mentions on his evening blog that the past few early Decembers since 2008 have been very warm. Based on today’s highs this December is no exception.

      1. Dec 13th 2007 we had a very quick hitting but intense storm with the heaviest right at rush hour. It was my first year working my current job and it took me over 2 hours to get from Walpole to North Attleboro on 95. After that, it was bitterly cold and I think we had another storm the following weekend.

        2. Took Mac 6 hours from Watertown to framingham. I am not sure that was the only one either. His dad had just passed away and his mom was staying with us. We were trying to convince a lady who doesn’t like cold to move here from charleston. And didnt we had extra cold temps and snow. I think we had one just prior to New Years too.

      2. December 2010 we had the post Christmas blizzard. There was one in December 2009 that hit on the weekend but not as large as the post Christmas blizzard.

        1. Regarding that surprise Dec. 2007 snow event, IIRC many Boston Public students didn’t arrive home until early evening. These were mostly elementary and middle schoolers. Many parents understandably were very worried. At least it was on a Friday so the kids (and parents) had a chance to recover over the weekend from the ordeal.

  44. I only partially agree with CPC. They are a little too warm on the temp forecast. And they have been wrong on their precip forecast for weeks on end which is why I don’t often agree with it.

      1. I DVR and watch it Monday Nights. Two episodes left on season two. I will not comment seeing you have not watched this season yet.

    1. Shhhhhh. You’ll wake the baby:). Seriously though the conversation here seems eerily similar to last year. At least it’s only dec 4

    2. Focus on the Redskins Hadi !!!!

      I dont think the cold air is coming, at least not on Dec. 10th, probably not on Dec. 20th either ……

      1. I’ve been skeptical about cold air moving in for awhile now. The talk of “arctic blasts” was almost annoying, especially coming from seasoned, good mets like Matt Noyes.

        I think we’re officially off to a warmer start (first four days of the month) than the first four days of December of 2011. Yes, warmer. Unbelievable. Would never have predicted that. And, it actually looks at this point that December 2012 could indeed be a repeat of December 2011 overall. While I concur with those who say it’s way too early to write this winter off, a pattern seems to be setting in and it’s not one conducive to even an average winter.

        1. Matt Noyes completely changed his approach when he switched to nights at NECN. He was more like some of these Facebook mets, going out on a limb so to speak and incorporating some of the outside the edge improbabilities into his forecasts. Now he has tamed down quite a bit since his move to nights. Probably because of the larger audiences.

  47. Is the pattern for December showing signs of Lakes Cutters setting in? And with fairly innocuous cold front sweeping through here only?

    1. Hope not. Mwith this latest storm, there will be a lot of snow in southern Canada and the Midwest, so it will at least help to not modify the cold shots as much as last year when there wasn’t any snow cover.

  48. FWIW, and i know its the 6Z GFS, but the storm for the 10th-12th has pushed east. We’ll see if its a trend. Still a week away.

  49. 0Z Euro, Still a Lakes Cutter, but MORE to the East:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif

    Look at this 0Z Euro NAO prediction, OOPS! What’s Happening?????

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif

    2012120400z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: 45.5135422
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: 26.215704
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: 2.87786818
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: -103.364716
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -130.353287
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -91.4693298
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -78.4888992
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -49.5625992
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: 6.7173214
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: 39.9956589
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: 98.0749817

    Still looks like last year! The cold is coming, the cold is coming, the snow is coming,
    the snow is coming! NOT! NOT! NOT!

    What did Coastal say, CANCEL WINTER! 😀 😀 😀

    Still early for sure, but I don’t like what I am seeing.

          1. Ok, I give UP!!!!!

            I paste the link in anothe browser and it grings
            up the correct chart. I paste it in here and it
            brings up the chart from 24 hours ago!

            So, just look at the values! YUCK!!!!

            1. The EURO’s NAO predictions are all over the map. They’re completely changing from 0Z one day to 0Z the next

    1. Didn’t feel it here this time. My business associate is at his home in Kennebunkport. I just shot him an email to see if they felt it

  53. I posted this earlier and my curiosity is peaked, any insight?
    Is there a point with each different weather model, where it becomes more or less likely to verify? For example, is the Euro better long range, GFS and NAM short range? In winter 2010-2011 I noticed when watching the AccuWeather PRO site, 90-95% of the time the 15 day would forecast a system coming through for consecutive days from day 12-15…then when the system got to day 11 on the 15 day it would vanish, complete opposite forecast (sunny no precip). It would stay off the 15 day from day 11 to day 6 or 7 where it would pop back up and stay for the remainder of the 15 day forecast. Between day 6 or 7 and the time the system moved in, the only thing that would change would be precip type/amount. Any reasoning behind this or pure coincidence.

    1. Nick,

      Just my thoughts and that is all it is:

      Euro is pretty good long range.
      GFS is wildly speculative.
      NAM is generally very good short range, say 60 or 48 hours in.

      Generally speaking, we watch the Euro. IF something shows up
      consistently run after run, then it is more likely to verify.

  54. Agree OS.

    Yes not too shabby of a QB or Morris as a running back. Things look much better for my skins in the years to come 🙂 yes coastal the Subway guy 🙂

  57. Not a big fan of this mornings weather but owell, continiuning the same thinking no snow for at least the next 10days, still no ice on ponds around here, a mild start to meterological winter, have a good everyone 🙂

  58. Does a -NAO and -PNA mean very cold but dry? I believe that a -NAO/+PNA is required for east coast snowstorms.

    1. But the PNA looks negative for some time to come. In previous days it was all positive and now it isn’t even neutral.

    1. Most definately Hadi, thru hour 162 anyways. Noticing a strong high to our north that wasnt there on previous runs

  61. Well, its gona from a Lakes Cutter to a western NY cutter. Trend is there though. Not as rubust in the moisture dept either

    2. Looks like after the initial low goes by western NY, we end up in a battle zone for a while, with the 850 10 degree line not too far off the south coast.

  63. Less blocking = progressive system? With in the next 3 runs this thing will come off the coast of Georgia.

  65. Also look at this for the 17th…hmmmm

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121204%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=288&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F04%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  67. From BB about an hour ago, pretty much sums it up

    Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ
    Weekend and into next week up 4 grabs as the warm and cold air go 2 battle. Expect periods of showers and maybe even some snow up north.#wbz

  68. Models are terribly confused right now, even the mighty Euro. I would take its predicted NAO values past day 7 with a grain of salt. Yesterday’s run had it at -300 at 240 hours and today it has it at +96 by the end. Very confused.

    The 0z Canadian had the storm riding up the lower appalachains, transferring its energy to the coast, and then riding up as a coastal hugger. Today’s 12z run has a lake’s cutter again tracking east of Michigan.

    12z GFS now holds back the energy and has no major storm. Just sends smaller disturbances towards us one after another, riding along the boundary between warm and cold air. It depicts an active weather pattern leading up to xmas and will be an interesting one if that boundary sets up near or just southeast of us.

    I wouldnt be surprised if the GFS has more of a clue right now. A series of weaker, more progressive storms tracking along the boundary initially west of us with rain chances, then trending south and east of us towards the middle of the month as the cold air infiltrates further south and east, giving us the chance for some accumulating snow events.

  70. This may be a simple question but what is an “inside runner?” can’t seem to find a definition of this term….

    1. ML – It’s basically any storm that tracks west of us (up through the appalachains or over the great lakes). These are rain makers for us.

  71. The latest Euro long range forecast for the northeast:

    Next week – wet and mild
    Week of 17th – near normal temps and precip
    Week of 24th – near normal temps and precip

    From Brett Anderson:
    The model does show more blocking up over Greenland the second half of this month, which normally would lead to a colder pattern over eastern Canada and the eastern U.S., however, we are also seeing persistent cold over Alaska and western Canada which usually argues against it getting that cold in the east.

    I do think the pattern turns colder (closer to normal) over Ontario/Quebec/Midwest and Northeast U.S. the second half of the month, but I suspect the true Arctic air may indeed end up holding back across western and central Canada more so than not.

    Philip – this answers your question above about what happens when the NAO and PNA both go negative!

  72. Also, HM is buying the far west, lakes cutter solution for next week and has issued a snow map showing a swath of accumulation for Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan. Perhaps it won’t happen after all!

  73. I may start the disappointment factor, rated from 1 to 10. A 1 means low disappointment, the long range forecasts show little snow or cold and thus, no disappointment is likely when that verifies………a 10 means, the long range models, cough….the GFS……. increases everyone’s hopes for snow and nothing eventually happens.

    From the comments above, I sense a bit of anticipation rising and thus potential disappointment ahead. I will give the initial disappointment factor of 6.

    2. This sounds like a retrofit of the UGH factor! How about an optimism factor? Keep the glass half full, or in this case 40% full.

  75. 12z Euro has the storm cutting up over Erie, PA next Tuesday. It is nice and cold after that, but the cold starts to retreat by end of next week (hour 240).

  76. By the way, I am taking a lot of slack here at work about what happened to our nice 60 degree day. We are sitting at 44 socked in with low clouds and drizzle in Manchester, CT Miserable day here!!

    1. Nice, EH? 😀

      Let’s Hurry up and Wait!

      Ugh Meter Rising! Disappointment meter Rising!
      Optimism meter crashing!

      😀

  78. I swear every run of the EURO for the last 3 days has flipped on the NAO. I can’t take any of them seriously.

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