Halcyon Days Preface A Pattern Change

338 Comments

12:25AM

“Halcyon Days” are defined as a stretch of chilly & quiet weather in late Autumn or early Winter. With high pressure dominating this will be the case for the next 5 days. It won’t be completely clear though as some high clouds fan across the southern sky and a few low clouds cross Cape Cod today from the influence of a wave of low pressure on the recently passed frontal system offshore. Another reinforcing cold front dropping down from the north late Friday night or early Saturday may also bring a few clouds with it, otherwise it’s quiet for a while.

There are increasing signs of a change in the weather pattern back to that of November, that is, chilly and dry. But let me caveat this by saying “dry” does not mean zero precipitation. It means below average precipitation. In fact, there is a chance of precipitation Sunday, and it may very well be snow for a good portion of the area. At this far-away stage it does not, however, look like a big storm. Just some snow that may be put down as we enter the final 10 days before Christmas. Stay tuned as this comes into focus in the days ahead.

For now, the updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH goes something like this…

OVERNIGHT: High clouds southeastern MA & RI, clear elsewhere. Lows from around 20 inland valleys to near 30 immediate coast. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: High clouds filter the sun at times especially southern MA and RI with brighter sun elsewhere. Also a few low clouds crossing Cape Cod from north to south. Highs around 40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 30. High 47.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 40.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Low 30. High 38.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 28. High 37.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 21. High 34.

338 thoughts on “Halcyon Days Preface A Pattern Change”

  1. Thanks TK for the update as well as the brief tidbit on “Halcyon Days” which is a term I have never even remotely heard of. Assuming those type of days occur every year around this time, I am somewhat surprised that mets don’t mention it on air or at least in their daily blogs. I am keeping my fingers crossed for at least a little snow to get us more in the Christmas spirit as well as a full blown white Christmas. Just this morning, most long range forecasts (with the exception of HM) had us milder.

    TK. does this mean that HM is actually on to something legitimate in terms of snow for a change? 😉

    1. One more question TK…Did we have a stretch of Halcyon Days last year? Based on your definition, my bet is we didn’t. I don’t recall any real “chill” until mid-January when we had the one snow event. 😉

    2. I love the term “Halcyon Days”. I don’t recall having a string of such days last season. I believe there were a few singular, fleeting days with those conditions.

      HM got lucky. 😉

  2. Before anybody gets too excited about the Euro, it arrives at the right pattern in not quite the right way in my opinion. Nevertheless, we need to watch that potentially stormy period next week. I think eventually it will come around to pushing those storms a little further south and having them somewhat less intense, especially the second one.

    1. I dont know what to think about the EURO. At least with Sandy, it had a remarkable accuracy with it 8 days in advance and never wavered.

      In contrast, the last 3 days have been varied, initially…it was more to the west, then it supressed to our south, now today…..its got a fairly intense system (986mb) over eastern Long Island…very inconsistent, very un EURO like.

  4. Thanks TK !

    The region snuck in one more day yesterday of well above average temps due to enough warmth that hung on just past midnight. Yesterday’s anomalies…..

    Logan : +9F, Hartford, CT : +7F, Providence, RI : +11F, Worcester : +10F

    Data courtesy of Taunton NWS climate section.

  5. I love how when something is shown by a model that most respect it’s fairly decent accuracy it’s garbage bc it depicts a snowstorm. Charlie I swear you do it on purpose.

  10. Again the most important thing to keep an eye on is that High, placement and strength. That is key to whether we get snow all the way down to the coast.

    1. East wind would be a total killer near the coast obviously. 6z GFS has temps above 0C all the way to 775mb in Worcester. Has Boston 3C at 850mb – pretty toasty. (this, at 00z on the 19th)

      I don’t like that SE wind shown ahead of the storm.

      We need this more offshore.

      Where’s the King at right now?

        1. Here you there but with the overall pattern not in our favor for snow, bias should lean that way until proven otherwise IMHO.

  14. Thanks TK – great read on Halcyon Days. JR said potential snow showers Sunday afternoon and maybe into Pats game then a possible mess Monday with rain, ice, snow – the operative word being possible. And then the potential for something mid-week. I like it when mets give potential info on the air, especially this time of year so people know what to watch for and any possibility that exists.

  15. Channel 7 calling for “snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain” next week. Too early for precipitation maps.

  16. Thanks, TK!

    And welcome, Barry!

    I am looking forward to the 2 potential storms nxt. wk., ‘though at this point they don’t look like very much – except possibly the 2nd one. At least it is really cold out today. The mild day we had the other day felt out of place and with my allergies made me feel worse. I’m better now. I am gradually getting Christmas shopping done – doing more shopping in smaller stores rather than the mall. Less hectic in smaller stores and I like to take time to shop and not worry about the lines, traffic, etc.

  18. Oh Wow! TK has used one of my favorite lines. Halcyon Days! I love it and find ways to use it often, sometimes incorrectly, but I love using it as a descriptive metaphor for days or a time period that was good or that I love.

    Pretty much in alignment with TK’s thinking. The ECMWF and it ENS are pretty much in line with each other with the ENS actually being a little wetter and of course a little warmer. It would push warm temps up into VT and NH. Its solution seems a little off to me. It reminds me of what it was doing late summer into the fall. Over amping systems and bringing them too far north and west. The fact that it is doing this after being so consistent for the last month or so does leave me some pause. I prefer the quicker, less amplified, but colder GFS right now for the system, but still prefer the ECMWF and its ENS for the overall pattern. Does that make any sense?

    Surface and mid levels will be too warm too start and you would need the heavier precip of the ECMWF to bring down the cold air, but its low placement and wind direction don’t support cold air mixing down to the surface. So at this time I can’t be pumped about significant snow accumulations in most coastal, urban, and suburban areas of SNE.

  19. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

    Major noreaster next week could cause problems in Sandy Ravaged beaches as well as major interior snow, rain turning to snow coast

    1. well, at least it’s not Margusity. Sometimes “interior” means Appalachians and/or Poconos to some of those guys.

  20. Ugh Meter Rising Fast!

    0Z Euro for first storm:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif

    0Z Euro for second storm:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif

    IF only it were colder. So far models are predicting it to be too WARM!
    Figures. 2 nice systems, totally and completely wasted.

    Sure, there is time as it is early yet and the models have been all over
    the place. Just don’t like the current trends.

    We shall see.

      1. OK,

        I give up again. I paste the link in another browser, I get the
        correct map. Paste it here, it is an old map????????????????

        Must be the TK GNOME!! 😀 😀

    2. Thanks for the links, OS. Regarding my earlier post, I guess my thinking of potential for 2nd storm looks like a warm wash-out, at this point, anyway.

  21. Hang in there OS. I have a feeling we are looking at a repeat of Dec 2010. Most looked warmer 5-7 days out and looked what happened.

    1. I do see similarities Hadi. IIRC, models were showing way west, then OTS, then back inside, then OTS, then perfection 48 hours before. I just remember being dissappointed a couple days before with everyone saying it was a done deal, no storm, then bam!

    1. retrac do we know (and maybe someone has already posted it) how the 2010 ocean temps compare to last year and this year?

      1. I think Tom might be our expert for that. He seems to be our “goto” for aggregating stats. My intuition tells me we’re above in the 3-5 celsuis range.

                1. That one may be a bit deceiving because its for Dec in its entirety. The others are for a specific day (between Dec 1-3)

  24. Also how far south the storm develops is a key factor which is unknown yet. Not writing off any of these yet.

  25. As much as id like to see snow next week all the way down to the coast, ill be happy if inland areas and ski country get appreciable snows from these systems, they need a nice boost for the xmas week, plus…i have next week off from work and could use a powder day…

  26. Hello Everyone,

    Well, well we finally have something to watch and maybe get excited about…Is it me or have the models actually been trending colder? Didn’t these storms start further west and now they have moved to the coast? We still have a couple more days I’m sure will get some snow near the coast and finally a white Christmas!! Have a great day everyone! Keep me posted.

  27. Seems like some ingredients are there just not all of them. A storm that could be tracking a little further south and east, a high to the north BUT not enough cold cold air around. Can’t make a good stew without all the ingredients.

    1. I like the analogy with the stew, its making me hungry for lunch 🙂

      Not only is there no cold air to our north, theres very little if any snowpack to keep any cold air there.

  28. I also think it depends on how deep the storm gets, keep in mind a storm below 980 near the benchmark which the EURO depicts will create its own cold so if that pressure does occur what out, even with warm ocean temps.

    1. I really want to believe a snow event is coming just before Christmas but there are 2 things, amount of cold air and the placement of the low which I believe comes up central Long Island and goes just west of Boston and up the Maine coast, have a great day 🙂

  31. woke up at 5 am this morning to do some last minute studying ,and it was cold. decided to blow some snow for 3 hours got a good amount of snow back on the sleeding hill. Hope we actually get natural snow though this weekend 😀

  32. 😀 😀 😀

    The 12Z GFS is laughable!
    First system now is mainly ots and very very weak, almost non-exisitant!

    Second system is potent, but an INSIDE RUNNER:D

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F12%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=153&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  33. The first system (or “overrunning event”) does not look like a big deal. The second will be interesting as we are starting to see some model consistency in a potent coastal storm. No sense in being too concerned about the exact track on each model run as we are 7 days out and it is going to change. The important thing is that a storm is there.

    The strong high to the north and increased blocking IMO are going to take this storm further away from the coast than what the 0z Euro and 12z GFS are showing. Models will trend east and colder. The pattern the second half of December is shaping up to be very interesting and nothing like the first half.

    1. Mark,

      Some good points. I’m curious as to how the 12Z Euro depicts the
      situation. Still evolving that’s for sure and as you stated, the NAO is
      nice and negative for a good stretch.

      Interesting situation at the least, whether it pans out or not.

  35. Look at the high on the 12Z GFS, perfect location and decent strength. No way that storm cuts the way the 12Z GFS is showing.

  39. There will be several pieces of energy to content with as early as late this weekend and more likely into the middle of next week. I do not feel as if we will miss out on all of these disturbances. It’s likely that one could develop into a winter storm for most of our viewing area delivering many of us a white Xmas. That NAO is becoming more negative and the PNA positive. High pressure will be set up to our north providing cold air and making an inside runner less likely. A more plausible scenerio is either a strong benchmark storm by mid next week OR a strong ocean storm that goes OTS due to blocking downstream.

  41. 12z GFS is COLD through the end of the month across much of the country and has it snowing here on Christmas Eve, though we are on the fringes of an ocean storm. If the cold pool and block set up as strong as it shows, I could see that happening and the storm getting shunted south and mostly OTS. Beyond that, it looks cold and dry with southern stream activity staying well to our south. This according to the GFS and we now how consistent it has been in the long range. Pattern looks believable though, I just think it’s overdoing the extent of the cold a bit.

    1. It is out to 168 Hours with a bomb down the coast.
      Not sure where it is headed from there. 850MB temps here
      marginal at best.

        1. Despite what the models are depicting, if it’s a bench mark storm with a high to our north, snow should make its way down to even the coastal plain with the exception of plymouth south and east.

    1. Hmm, 972MB low not too far from benchmark, albeit somewhat West of it.
      Still, even so, IF it were only COLDER!! If the trend continues to be colder,
      well who knows. Certainly continues to be a WATCHER! 😀 😀

    2. That’s impressive. The low is just west of the benchmark. The isobars are nice and tight indicating a very strong low with lots of coastal wind. The only thing missing is that H to the north. This could become a major winter storm for SNE.

    3. Nice storm. Thanks for the post O.S.

      I’d probably get some snow here in Worc. Hills with that. Ok, we’ll see. Just need that a smidge SE still in the end.

  44. With that track I can’t buy those warm temps with a sub 975 storm at the benchmark. This thing will be all over the place temp wise, I have feeling right up to 24 hours before they will be calling for rain/snow and as we approach the event that will become all snow.

    2. That’s cuz the bomb is just west of the benchmark on that run. If it’s a benchmark storm, we’re in it.

    3. Well, at the very least, there “may” be some backside snows near
      the coast. And of course, there is still plenty of wiggle room in that track and intensity for that matter. 😀

      1. When is the last time the coast ever saw significant backlash snows regardless of what the models suggested? It never happens so lets hope for a BM storm.

  46. even with it west of the Benchmark I believe with that pressure temps will come around colder bc it will make its own cold air as it gets cranking.

  49. Bastardi is spazzing out over the 12z King.

    ECMWF goes bonkers. White Christmas would lock in for interior ne if correct ( perhaps coastal plain too.) 4 New england 2 storms nxt wk

  50. When I moved to the coastal south shore, after 1 winter of experience of should be snowstorms to rain 🙁 , I quickly realized that I better learn something about ocean temps during the winter and its effect on the rain/snow line.

    To get a majority of the storm to be snow during a benchmark track of a moderate intensity northeaster, the water temp has to be not much higher than 38F for areas south of Boston. There have been rare exceptions when an extreme cold high sits to the north, however, its 38F for the average cold high to the north.

    A bit further north in Boston, where the wind tends to be a bit more northerly during the storm, my guess is water temp should not be much higher than 40F.

    I have been using the Reynolds SST anomolies (from the NHC). The last analyzation was done Dec. 5th. I posted a link to it a day or 2 ago, and saw that from New England east, to off the coast of Nova Scotia, that whole area of ocean was running 2 to 3C above average.

    If you google Coastal New England Buoys, you will find a couple of great sites that list all the buoys off of the coastline. I spent close to an hour on that yesterday, and the coolest water temp I could find east of New England was 45.7F, up by Bar Harbor, Maine. Portland Buoy is reporting 48F and Boston Harbor is reporting 49F. So, a bomb of a storm, even near the benchmark, with strong winds having some component off of the ocean and no true arctic high to the north, I dont think is going to be profitable snowwise at this particular point in this particular season given the water anomolies anywhere near the coastline. With these anomolies, who knows how far inland that marine layer, in modified form, could warm the boundary layer…..

    1. Great post Tom – thanks.

      I’m guessing the answer to your rhetorical question at the end of the post is 30 miles or so, maybe more with a track inside of the benchmark.

    3. I agree with your premise, however, not necessarily with your
      temperatures. I can only speak for the Boston area.

      As you say, with a cold arctic high banked to the north, we could get
      snow with that ocean temp in the mid 40s. I have certainly seen it
      with water temp at 46F. However, as you aptly pointed out, that will
      not be the case with this upcoming system. So, how can we get it to
      snow with ocean temp around 48F.

      Aside from having it be cold enough above us, we have to contend with
      the boundary layer issues. IF we can get the wind to back more to the
      Northerly direction, Done deal. The more North the component the better.
      Certainly anything higher than 45 degrees, forget about it! Would like 30 degrees or less, the closer to 0 or 360 the better. The only other thing would be precipitation intensity. The heavier the precip, the better chance it stays snow.

      And finally, I’m not sure one can assign a hard and fast water temperature
      to the rain snow, as it depends on a few other factors as well.

      But I certainly agree that we are at the extreme end of the spectrum here.

      😀 😀

      1. Well said, but I wouldn’t count on evaporational cooling to create our snow without that big H to our north.

        1. Not thinking Evaporative cooling here. I am thinking
          that the BM storm would bomb out and bring the colder
          air down from above. 😀

    4. Good Stuff Tom.

      Checking historical data on a couple of buoys at time of the Dec 26 2010 storm indicated that the Boston Buoy was right around 44 degrees, the Nantucket Sound buoy was even colder (but with some good swings) between 39 and 43. So yep…locally this year seems to be running about 3-5 degrees above those temps.

  51. NAO index for 12Z run

    2012121212z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: -55.1014137
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: -62.7050323
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: -105.68959
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: -112.19915
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -128.973297
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -141.781342
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -118.58902
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -121.38652
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -196.195251
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: -212.652771
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: -124.101624
    NAO value for Day 1-5: -110.269684
    NAO value for Day 6-10: -154.585037

  52. With that NAO no way this storms moves any further west, in fact I would think further east is a more likely scenario.

    1. I hope you’re right Hadi but Sandy ended up in Western N.Y. with a really negative NAO. That concerns me a bit.

    2. But as Tom eluded to, a BM storm with no proper H to the north as demonstrated by the 12z EURO would indeed result in rain for much of the coastal plain. We need that H because sometimes bombs over the benchmark push the marine layer inland even with an easterly or NE wind.

        1. Correct. What we need is a big H to the north. That will funnel colder air all the way down to the coast and strengthen the BM storm which would spell trouble. There have been many winters in which storms went over the BM resulting in coastal rain due to lack of northern H.

    1. 😀 draco ???

      As in this sense?

      Draconian is an adjective meaning great severity, that derives from Draco, an Athenian law scribe under whom small offences had heavy punishments (Draconian laws).

      1. But with no H to our north how would a storm bring cold air down from above? That could only occur via evaporational cooling if no such cold air from above exists with the lack of northern H;)

    2. Oh, you beat me to it!!

      Isn’t that the same name as Rocky Balboa’s killer Russian opponent or was that “Drago”. (showing my age)

  54. Don’t get me started on the naming of winter storms.
    Interesting for next week and will see what happens.

  55. I am confused about some of the statements above regarding the lack of a proper high to north. GFS has a double barreled high in eastern Canada and the Euro has a high parked north of Maine. The blocking pattern to the north is so strong that the Euro still has the storm in the Gulf of Maine on Friday and then even retrograding back towards us on Saturday which would put us under the effects of the storm for 4 straight days! Yes, if this track verified I agree coastal areas and most of SE MA would have ptype issues, at least to start. But the majority of interior SNE would have a heck of a snowstorm and even coastal areas by the end would be over to snow with the low slowly drifting away and cold diving all the way down the east coact into northern FL.

    Again, wouldn’t focus too much on this exact track (too early), I think this storm ends up near or southeast of the benchmark.

    1. High pressure to the north is not 100% necessary but it sure does help, especially early season, unless the wind is too much from the east.

      I completely agree about track focus this far out. 1 week away, the track error will be hundreds of miles, even very possibly with the Euro.

    2. Mark,

      The discussion was not that there was a high to the North, but rather
      that it was not a very cold Arctic High. The high has only marginally cold air, not necessarily enough to keep the coastal areas in snow and offset the marine
      layer. We need some pretty chilly air to the North to do that, msot especially
      with water temperatures as they are around 48 degrees or so.

      1. Here is the 12Z GFS 10M temperature at 144 Hours:

        Please note how far North the -10C (about 14F) line is!
        For a “REAL” Arctic High that line would be just barely North
        of the Boston Area, if not over Boston. This line is WAY up
        in Canada and therein lies our problem. 😀

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F12%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=144&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

            1. Understood OS, thanks. Clearly, if looking at the GFS run, we’d have rain pretty much everywhere and the cold air is no where to be found. I don’t but that track/solution for a minute though as it does not make sense with the increasing -NAO/blocking pattern.

  56. This baby might and probably change 10 times between now and next week. All I care is that there is a storm close by at this point. We can sort out the rain vs. snow soon enough.

  57. first storm smaller. light snows.
    second storm stronger but more warmth involved which equals more rain…. snow amounts cut massivly eastern half of the state

    third storm -rain maker eastern half snow to rain central mass
    second and third storm good for ski country.
    what i see right now.

  58. Hello folks, still a lot of unanswered questions but at this time I still lean towards a wetter scenario for eastern mass but west central and north of Lowell have the best shot of a white Christmas, an easterly wind could spoil our white Christmas but its very early so Alls not lost just yet 🙂

  59. I think its clear that it’s leaning to a wetter storm right now for eastern mass, the question is does that hold or not.

  60. I guess for those going to the north country it will be a white x-mas if the storm doesn’t go too far south. My in-laws are in Gardnier ME so no question its snow up there with the current track.

  61. I think the other factor to look at is how does the storm this weekend impact the cold air for next week. I think the stronger the storm this weekend the better the cold air supply for us.

  64. Everything with these two advertised systems seem too juicy, too far north. Think we end up with lighter, albeit colder scenarios compared to current ECWMF and ENS model consensus or what NWS is talking about. Also shorter duration events than modeled. So more in the camp for snow, just a lot less precip.

  66. From PB WHDH:

    “Suffice it to say that the first go-round from Sunday afternoon through Monday will have LIGHT precipitation. (Which also favors more wet than white. Heavy precipitation can manufacture its own cold air.) The second storm is bigger, colder, and will be a LONG duration event. Some of the weather maps we use have it going from Tuesday through Thursday! While I think that may be a stretch, it certainly means SEVERAL inches of snow is possible.”

    The way I interpreted the afternoon models was the other way around. Light snow Sunday and heavy coastal rain/inland snow mid-week, opposite of how Pete interpreted them. Hmmmmmm.

    1. And the NWS out of Taunton thinks PB may have interpreted the storm potential lop-sided as well:

      “MODELS ALSO IN
      GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND SUN-MON WILL BE
      SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN SYSTEM FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THERMAL
      PROFILES SUPPORT MORE SNOW/ICE SUN-MON WITH WARMER PROFILES MIDDLE
      OF NEXT WEEK.”

      1. It’s odd for Pete B. he is usually hanging on to the warmer solutions until the end…odd for him to make this statement now as he hates to ask for forgiveness for a blown forecast.

  69. Ever since they changed the wunderground models site, the EURO hasnt worked. For the MSL function theres so much background noise u cant tell what is real. I loved this site for its graphics and short increments. Seems like eevr since TWC took them over its gone downhill.

    1. i have not even been able to use anything on that site since they changed it how do you get to the euro.

      1. Its weird, on the column all the way to the right, theres little check boxes next to each option. Scroll down to “Model Data” and check that box. On the right side of that row there should be a little blue sprocket type thing like a settings icon. Click that and u should be able to see all the kinds of models to chose from like before.

          1. He had gas in his too and used methanol. He didnt know anything about stabilizer until my SIL laughed at him 🙂

  72. I really REALLY wish the media would cease the practice of trying to describe rain/snow lines 5 and 6 days in advance. It is bad for credibility when it’s actually doable.

    1. That is not a wise decision as someone is bound to wind up being wrong this far out with that kind of a prediction.

    1. Oh my God. I missed the broadcasts tonight – really.

      It’s one thing for us being knuckleheads with that kind of stuff this far out but TV, that’s just bad practice. Must be jonesin’ for some air time and ad dollars.

      1. Way to go with people trying to make sure holiday parties, etc. go off without an interuption from the weather. Hope no one changes plans yet, because of those broadcasts.

      2. I didn’t miss the broadcasts but I don’t recall any talk of rain/snow lines per se. Which met was responsible?

    3. Complete B.S.

      I remember all the predictions in the 1970s about rising sea levels putting most of Boston underwater by the year 2000.

      Yup, still waiting………………………………..

    4. Very depressing if that came true. The study is using an ultra worst case projection for CO2 emissions though. I don’t foresee any temperature increase being that extreme.

      1. TK, I may be remembering wrong but I thought that back in the 1970’s all the talk was that we may be returning to another ice age if anything. ❓

        Either way, neither came to pass…yet. 😉

  75. Let’s see what the GFS has to say overnight. Time for bed so I will see the results early morning. I am betting the 12z and 6z are way east from earlier today.

    1. I hope they don’t suspend the Euro for being on PED’s Hadi, one wonders how many games we’d lose relying on only the GFS. 🙂

      (couldn’t help the dry humor – sorry folks)

  78. Not on that euro run coastal. Looks colder bc it’s on the benchmark. But so much spread at this point in solutions.

  79. I promise I’m not trying to overkill with this point, but with some onshore flow possible during the upcoming unsettled weather, I do think it has merit to discuss / debate / report on.

    Logan current temp : 33F, Portland, ME temp : 21F. I think we might all agree this is a seasonable chilly airmass we are under.

    Current AIR temp at the Boston Harbor Buoy (16 NM east of Boston) : 40F

    Current AIR temp at the Portland, ME Buoy : 35F

    1. Hi Tom, the effect of a easterly component to the wind are well know for most coastal residents. A more northerly wind direction is a key ingredient for snow on the south shore.

    2. Tom I wouldn’t use your name and overkill in the same sentence. I think you are right that the information has merit. I find your posts interesting but also am fascinated to see how it plays out….now and as you continue to track the outcomes/data

  80. No question water temps are not ideal, but remember many other factors come in to play to limit that effect.

    Retrac if our euro got suspended we would be in a world of hurt.

  82. Good Morning everyone as we continue to track would could be some weather drama on Sunday and the middle of next week.
    Right now with both system one and two I am thinking mostly a rainorama for areas at or near the coast. A wintryorama for the interior but maybe a snoworma if everything comes together. Its early but I am going to stick my neck out and I am thinking a possible level 1 snow event for the interior for the first system (Dusting To 4 inches) The second one to me is the bigger one and that could POSSIBLY be more than a level 1 snow event.

  83. I’m not doing anything on purpose but still as I see it,, showers are a sure bet for eastern mass for storm 1 and storm 2 looks like rain for Boston/Providence areas but north and west of 495 get most of snow, have a great day everyone 🙂

  85. What I have found to be so interesting about winter weather in my lifetime is that it seems the “weather,” in terms of how people behave IS the forecast. In the age of twitter, blogs, Facebook and other 24/7 social media combined with broadcast television, if the mainstream news outlets are hyping snow – even 5-6 days out people go berzerk. The “bread & milk lines” at the grocery stores, running to home depot for salt & shovels etc etc. Even if when “the big day” comes and it’s just rain, folks won’t leave the house and behave as if the hyped forcast happened. I have seen this happen year in and year out being in retail. We almost never have any weather here in greater Boston one couldn’t leave the house because of and yet flurries send people into a tailspin every year. I have come to base my business projections for forecast snow days not on what happens outside but rather what “the weather” is on television. I have found that to be a much more reliable indicator of how people will act.

    1. M.L. interesting and true. I am not sure if this all began with the blizzard of 78 but I don’t remember people stripping aisles of bread and milk prior to that. Perhaps it was because I was also just on my own around that time so didn’t notice because my parents did the majority of shopping. I agree with people not leaving their homes even if the predictions don’t pan out. Also, as soon as the first flake flies, people start to drive as if there is a foot on the ground. I never found this to be true north of here, however. It was always just business as usual. Of course it may be a good thing people don’t leave home. Most in MA don’t have any idea how to drive in snow 😉

      1. Hi Vicki –
        From Sky and Telescope:

        Under a clear, dark sky, you may see at least one Geminid per minute on average from roughly 10 p.m. Thursday until dawn Friday morning. If you live under the artificial skyglow of light pollution your numbers will be less, but the brightest meteors will still shine through.

        Lower counts of Geminid meteors should be visible earlier that evening, and a few should also flash into view on the nights of December 11, 12, and 14.

        To watch for meteors, you need no equipment but your eyes. Find a dark spot with an open view of the sky and no glary lights nearby. Bundle up as warmly as you can in many layers. Go out late in the evening, lie back, and gaze up into the stars. A reclining lawn chair is a comfortable alternative to lying on the ground. Be patient, and let your eyes adapt to the dark. The best direction to watch is wherever your sky is darkest, probably straight up.

        Geminids can appear anywhere in the sky. Small ones appear as tiny, quick streaks. Occasional brighter ones may sail across the heavens for several seconds and leave a brief train of glowing smoke.

        If you trace each meteor’s direction of flight backward far enough across the sky, you’ll find that this imaginary line crosses a spot in Gemini near Castor and Pollux. Gemini is in the eastern sky during evening and high overhead in the hours after midnight (for skywatchers at north temperate latitudes). This special spot is called the shower’s radiant. It’s the perspective point from which all the Geminids would appear to come if you could see them approaching from the far distance, rather than just in the last second or so of their lives as they dive into Earth’s upper atmosphere.

  87. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
    CONNECTICUT…CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS…EASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS…NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…SOUTHEASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS…WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…SOUTHERN NEW
    HAMPSHIRE…NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

    .DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

    AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND
    CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER…THE
    EXACT DETAILS…TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAIN VERY
    UNCERTAIN.

    THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
    NIGHT…BUT AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. IT PROBABLY WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
    FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY
    EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR A TIME. SOME MINOR
    SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

    A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
    SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT.
    PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND ARE SUBJECT TO
    CHANGE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT PROBABLY WILL BE WARM
    ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
    HOWEVER…PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
    SNOW. IF IT DOES END UP COLD ENOUGH…SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
    ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SMALL SWATH OF
    ICE…BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

    FINALLY…A STRONG COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY NEXT
    TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH
    TO OUR REGION…SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WOULD BE
    POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
    COAST. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
    EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST.

      1. I had that impression listening to JR this morning. He is saying it is possible and not that it will happen.

  88. While I concur with TK on the pattern change, I’m not seeing much cold air associated with it. I don’t consider 25-30 at night cold in mid December, with afternoon temps from 35-48. Seasonable, yes, but not cold. Certainly not supportive of snow in and around Boston. December will likely go down as well above normal in terms of temperatures. That’s what I’m seeing currently. I am happy that we’re getting more precip. We desperately need that, as does most of the nation.

  89. Big factor on the last storm is what the second storm does. How much cold air filters in after will set the stage for the last storm.

  90. Wxrisk.com
    IMPORTANT UPDATE COMING…

    woof#1 … woof 2 woof 3

    1…inland dec 18-19
    2…NEW ENGLAND Clipper low on the arctic front goes BOOM off the Mass coast
    3… XMAS ( DEC 25-26) SNOW THREAT INCREASING for Mid ATLANTIC

    details shortly

  92. Good morning all,

    The Euro sure looks finger licking good! 😀

    Hadi posted the bomb for mid week. Truly awesome!

    Even the Sunday nighter looks somewhat interesting.

    Let’s see IF it pans out or not???

    1. Here is the 0Z Canadian for 7PM, Monday Evening:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=120&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=120&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      This is with 850MB temps Cold enough for snow. OF course, not sure
      how surface would be, especially at coastal locales.

      Here it is at 7AM on Tuesday!! Wow!

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=132

      Then the next system is depicted as more of an ocean liner and East of benchmark.

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=180&fixhh=1&hh=192

      1. Btw,

        On that Canadian first system, the precip is in mm.
        The shading indicates about 40mm in Eastern MA.
        That equates to about 1 1/2 inches of melted precip.
        If all snow, a BIG storm!!!!! 😀 😀 😀

  93. I can see these storms being south like JMA and TK pointed out but I just can’t see it being inland like WRISK is calling for. Pattern doesn’t support that IMHO.

  94. I have to go do some work. 😀

    Before I do, one more thing.

    The disparity between the Euro, Canadian and the GFS is laughable!!
    How can they be this different?????? Something is wrong. One or the other
    is just not handling things well.

    Is the GFS pure JUNK? Or is it onto something the Euro missed?
    Based on the article posted the other day by ? Can’t remember, I’d
    say the GFS is Garbage!!! 😀

    1. OS, i was just taking a look at how the GFS is handling these systems out of curiosity bc i havent seen many posts lately about what its saying. I was surprised to see how different it was too. I wouldnt say its garbage but the inconsistency of each run sure is telling at how its handing things.

  95. I am getting my hopes up and I really hope theres no let down! This part of following model runs and the analysis and what ifs is so exciting and stressful at the same time. I usually relish in this period of time but i just want the events to be here. Im so starved for a big snowstorm 😀

    1. Ace,

      Between the 2 systems, hopefully we’ll manage something.
      Just remember, Always keep Watching. 😀

      1. Used to be, there would be subtle difference among the models.
        There would be differences in timing, temperature, qpf and track, but NOT the disparity we have been seeing lately. This is crazy!

    1. Thats a cool graphic, thanks coastal!

      Have you noticed HM, at least on Twitter anyways, has toned down his hype a bit this year?

  97. AceMaster I want a big storm to. Its the second one of these parade of storms I feel COULD turn into to something important for SNE. If we do get a big snow event I will be hearing from people since The ALmanac predicted a big snowstorm for Mid December. My response will be they got lucky!!!

  98. I was reading that link Coastal from WRISK and he clearly forecasts more for the mid Atlantic states.

    No question there are monster differences between the EURO and GFS. There is no way you can go with a GFS based idea at this point. I also can’t jump all aboard the EURO either at this point. Too soon and too many factors that are still in play that will have a huge impact on the end result.

    1. I just read that too, and it looks like that is the write-up from yesterday? Im not sure if he will update after seeing the 12Z EURO from yesterday and the 00Z from last night.

  99. I noticed the latest NAO forecast shows slightly negative to neutral. I would like to see it more negative than what is currently forecasted.

  100. Even the NAO from the EURO vs. GFS is different. Below is the EURO NAO from the 00z run.

    2012121300z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: -48.2963028
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: -82.4724121
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: -108.234291
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: -134.746078
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -167.566544
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -170.162735
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -139.337463
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -145.849121
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -226.555725
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: -185.583801
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: -97.052475
    NAO value for Day 1-5: -132.636414
    NAO value for Day 6-10: -158.875717

    1. Indeed. Notice the beginnings of the coastal redevelopment.
      Don’t like the Freezing line at 850MB. We’ll see how that trends.

      BTW, It looks to me like the first system is GOING to be far more significant
      than previously advertised. Any thoughts on that?

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F13%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  106. Just remember NAM at this range will over do the QPF big time. But yes I think the first storm might be more potent.

    1. I understand, however, still looking more juicy. Plus, the Canadian
      also depicted it as juicy. So I still think that the first system will be
      far more potent that previously forecasted.

    1. No, that is the 1000-850MB thickness chart.

      The 850MB line is on the chart I posted and it is depicted to be
      just North of the Boston Area.

  111. I’m concerned about the marginal temps on the coast and lack of strong cold air supply from the north as far as snow on the coastal plain. Marine layer issues continue to be a problem with these storms unless the strong midweek storms really bomb out over the BM. Let’s hope!

    1. I think there will be three disturbances to deal with. Sun and Sun night (weak but latest indications are that it could be stronger than currently forecasted. Then there is the late Mon into Tues event which could be a moderate event. Thirdly, there is a possible Wed-Thurs. event. That could prove to be the biggest one of the three. However, strength, track and precip types are all but uncertain for all three potential pieces of energy.

      1. Thanks for recapping alisonarod – sometimes it gets hard for someone like me who doesn’t have the knowledge you do to break it all apart. I think there may be some reading who are in the same boat I am in. Also, can you explain why the BM is important. If I recall it is a specific point on a map? or a point of reference? but I don’t recall what created it as a “point” or what its significance is. Thank you.

        1. Hi Vicki,
          Thank you for your kind comments. The meteorological benchmark are the longitudinal/latitudinal coordinates marked by 40N and 70W. It is observed that most major southern new england snowstorms will pass over or very near to this 40/70 benchmark. In other words, it is the ideal point on a map that a coastal storm must travel to producing snow across our area. This benchmark is about 125 miles southeast of Nantucket. When a storm crosses the benchmark, the counter-clockwise circulation creates a northeasterly wind component off the ocean, thus locking in cold air and enhancing snowfall due to ocean effect. A strong cold High to the north would funnel in cold air via its clockwise circulation thereby increasing snowfall rates. This is a classic set up for a major southern new england nor’easter:) Hope this helps!

  113. Just would make me feel more comfortable if there was more cold air around. If we were in the middle of January the marine layer wouldn’t be as much of an issue. The storm at that point would be able to overcome the lack of a strong cold H and be able to generate it’s own cold air. Not so sure this time around especially since it’s been so mild.

  114. The first wave is too warm for much of anything on the GFS. The GFS really has only 1 wave for Sunday-Tuesday time frame and its warm pretty much throughout.

  115. I don’t like the NAM model. To me just shave about 2-3 inches off of what it comes out with since it over does everything. This was the case during the summer when we had the thunderstorms it was projecting a lot more instability than the other models.
    I still think mostly a rainorma for areas near and at the coast. For the interior could be mixorama or a snowarama if everything comes together just right.

  116. The GFS is so different than the EURO solution. BTW the HPC is only going with a EURO and EURO Ensm for the long range.

    1. Euro is colder and stronger and the EURO is superior but I cannot discount the GFS based upon points I’ve mentioned.

  120. Its crazy though, the gfs in this range is showinig very little consistency, but yet, several days ago for multiple runs in a row, it was showing a big storm on or around the 19th-20th. Now its gone?? I cant take it seriously until it shows consistency again, in either direction

    1. The GFS is certainly not consistent. You’re right. There must be a pattern before one model can become believable. I believe right now the EURO is most consistent and has proven time and time again to be the model choice.

  121. It is possible that storm #1 is the only one that will have cold air already in place and storms #2 and #3 may have to manufacture their own for us to get snow especially in eastern sections. I also wouldn’t be surprised if interior areas having issues getting snow. We will see.

    Also I am impressed with Henry’s discipline in not including the I-95 corridor in his current snowfall map. He seems to actually be taking a “wait and see” approach for a change. 😉

  123. Wxrisk.com
    COMMENT ON THURSDAY 12Z GFS … model takes the DEC 18-19 east off the coast and out to sea … and KILLS the cold pattern

    Yesterday at midday the Wednesday 12Z GFS had the East Coast low so far inland that it drove the rain snow line as far inland as Pittsburgh and Central New York State. Now 24 hours later this new run of the 12z GFS takes the East Coast low dramatically OFF the coast and out to sea!!! *** I have said this before many times I will say it again. When it comes to East Coast weather … from 4 days to 10 days… especially in the cold months …I LOATHE the GFS model. It is a awful totally unreliable inconsistent model for East Coast weather in general and especially with significant East Coast storm possibilities. **8

    I don’t trust when the model shows a major snowstorm …and I don’t trust the one it shows the Low going out to sea. I dont not trust when it shows a sunny days … I do not trusted by the Bay.

    I do not like green eggs and ham … I do not like the GFS ..Sam I am

  126. The GFS is completely laughable at this point and should be discounted. It’s inconsistency is nothing short of pathetic!

    We have three pieces of energy to watch and all models (not just the GFS) are having difficulty with the timing and interaction of each. I believe the piece of energy responsible for the potential large storm midweek is still near the Aleutians in Alaska. It’s going to be another day or two before the models can get some better data to zero in on a solution.

    Not at all surprised to see the trend towards a colder, off-shore track. Just hope we can freeze the track there and not send it much further out to sea. The strengthening block has me a little concerned.

  127. Lets see what tune the 12z EURO sings.
    I think unsettled is good word to describe Sunday to middle of next week. If you are at or near the coast I would not have high expectations for wintry precipitation.

    1. Where do u live jj? I live and are always in the Foxboro to north attkeboro areas and it is more times than not rain here, and I think unfortunately what we have in store for my area, have a nice day everyone as we can’t ask for much more sunny and pleasant 🙂

      1. Charlie, growing up in north attleboro it always seemed when p-types were involved in winter storms, we were more times on the wet side than white, or in that dreaded sleet zone

  129. Vicki had asked what the BM is so here is my response to her and to anyone else who is not familiar with the benchmark. The meteorological benchmark are the longitudinal/latitudinal coordinates marked by 40N and 70W. It is observed that most major southern new england snowstorms will pass over or very near to this 40/70 benchmark. In other words, it is the ideal point on a map that a coastal storm must travel to producing snow across our area. This benchmark is about 125 miles southeast of Nantucket. When a storm crosses the benchmark, the counter-clockwise circulation creates a northeasterly wind component off the ocean, thus locking in cold air and enhancing snowfall due to ocean effect. A strong cold High to the north would funnel in cold air via its clockwise circulation thereby increasing snowfall rates. This is a classic set up for a major southern new england nor’easter:) Hope this helps!

    1. Wundermap shows a 984mb East of benchmark, 978Mb in gulf of Maine
      and 974MB in Nova Scotia. It shows us getting grazed by a small amout of
      precip. It does NOT indicate any snow in our area, only way up in Maine.

  135. I think these models r in disarray or wrong info input, I’m going to take a wait and see approach but on a realistic note and the little hints the models have giving us, it doesn’t look good for a white Christmas for Boston or Providence, yes it’s early so will c 🙂

  138. I’m hoping as much as many of you for real winter weather. Alas, hope is not reality. It really isn’t cold enough (in the model projections) to produce snow anywhere near the coast. I do have some hope for the interior, but not a whole lot. We’re dealing with marginally cold air, even in Canada, folks. When it’s in the mid to upper 30s in Minnesota for prolonged stretches of time, you know there’s an issue. Same can be said for most of Northern New England. Herein lies the problem: The ocean is warmer than normal, and won’t cool down much under these conditions. We need some serious frost, which we haven’t had nor will get in the short and medium term. I’m afraid that when we get a classic Nor’easter in January, we may see a mixed bag of precipitation at the coast, under these conditions. I don’t care what NAO is telling us, and whether it’s a benchmark storm. The Highs to our north need to be colder, and the ocean needs to cool down.

    1. Agreed Josh but the storm also must come close enough to us. Latest model trends suggest that precip. type won’t even be much of an issue as the main event wants to go OTS.

      1. Right. My complaint is with the crappiness of the GFS. Even with the King trending OTS, at least its not flipping by hundreds of miles in less than a day.

  140. Good point Retrac which is why the UGH meter is still low. These models are going to go back and forth till 24-48 hours prior the event. Now what I am looking at is this a trend with a weaker storm that further south.

  141. Not sure if its similar set-up, but the post xmas storm a couple years ago went back and forth and IIRC showed an OTS and weaker scenerio just a few days before the event after showing a monster hit a few days earlier

  144. 12Z Canadian has backed off considerably on 1st system precip and even more
    marginal for snow. It has the 2nd system almost non-existent.

    Something strange is going on? OR the situation is just so complicated that
    the models are just NOT handling it well. It seems that more time is needed
    to sample more data and more data closer to the event before they can figure
    out what is going to happen.

    Sometimes the situation is such that virtually all of the models are clued in a week
    in advance and a storm is well advertised, but I’m afraid that more often than not,
    it is like it is now. 😀 😀

    My Ugh meter just got a healthy dose of Viagra 😀 😀

  148. The reason why I cannot get excited about snow is bc when I do and it doesn’t happen I get so upset, I’m not biting on anything, winter comes around or after Christnas, I think that’s going to happen and even some prolonged cold air to make the snow stick around for a few days 🙂

  149. When winter weather alerts go up is when my excitment really kicks into high gear just like during the summer when severe weather alerts are issued. It is fun to track both snowstorms and thunderstorms.

    1. NOT!!! 😀

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20121213%2F18%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=081&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F13%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=72&nextImage=yes

      Need that development a little more to the SOUTH! Could still change.

  153. I wonder if the 3pm obs would qualify Logan for a seabreeze ?

    Logan at 3pm, 40F with an east wind at 3 ……. Inland areas about 42F to 45F….. December 13th, right ? 🙂

    1. Well, that would be nice. So this is the ensembles MEAN? Correct.

      This means that for each run with the input parameters changed slightly,
      this has averaged them all together and this is the result. Sometimes
      more meaningful than the Operational run, but sometimes not so.

      Just more to chew on for now. 😀

      1. Thanks for the explanation OS. I’m not posting because there is serious discussion but I’m reading everything and truly appreciate the explanations 😀

  156. I dont know if this is JC’s midday forecast or Harvey’s updated evening forecast, but here are the predicted next 6 days of high temps….first one is tomorrow’s

    48, 40, 42, 46, 44, 42F

    2. Sure looks like prolonged Cold weather with a couple of chances
      for significant snowfall! 😀 😀 😀

  158. There isn’t one model predicting significant snow in southern new england that we can continue to watch and hang our hat on. They all demonstrate either a weak low, marginal temps or no low at all. I just wish we had something to grasp at. Over the course of the next few days we are going to have to pray for a miracle for all the models to flip and show a stronger, colder, and snowier scenerio for southern NE.

  159. When Montreal is showing mostly low to mid 30s in their forecast the coming 10 days (with a few exceptions), we can’t expect Boston to be particularly cold. I’m glad it’s a little more seasonable around here, with a couple of colder than normal days and a few days warmer, but it’s not yet conducive for snow.

  160. Ugh. Frustrated! I feel like i have had a good handle on this pattern. This time though I am a bit stumped. I was thinking colder particularly for the 2nd storm, which meant further south and weaker but a little white stuff for most. Instead the warm air that I knew 2 weeks ago would accompany most precip up until the 20th will continue. Maybe I am guilty of a bit of wishcasting myself or trying to be extra vigilant against being the guy who blindly forecasts so his longer range forecasts verify so? The 12z ECMWF ENS is even warmer, not colder than the 12z EMCWF OP. It pushes warm air into NH and VT. Right now I have little confidence of any accumulating snow in most coastal, urban and suburban areas of SNE through the 21st. Which in the end meshes with what I was thinking 2 weeks ago. But, I do still hold out a little hope for mid-week white, wink, wink!

  161. To depress everyone further….

    Fairbanks, AK set a record yesterday for daily QPF on 12/12/12 of .72 inches, which translated to a record 9.5 inches of snow for the date. The snow depth is 19 inches.

    Its possible that some might think this normal, but I’m pretty sure central AK, while very cold, is a fairly dry climate in winter.

  162. Recently Brett Anderson mentioned in one of his blogs that the true arctic air is currently located in Alaska and NW Canada with only bits and pieces of marginally cold air coming down into the CONUS. IMHO until Alaska releases the arctic stuff, we can pretty much forget about any serious snow.

    The CPC reflects on this with above normal temps from just west of NE throughout the entire midwest in their 6-10/8-14 day outlooks.

    I have serious doubts about anything remotely looking like a white Christmas yet again this year at least locally. 🙁

  163. You know it’s not good for snow lovers when we all disappear from the boards, ha ha. I should talk. I only show up when something exciting is about to happen. Let’s hope the models turn around and we can light up this board again:)

    1. CMC has the two storms cold with snow and then a clipper comes through at the end
      gfs warm..
      euro to warm as well. but another system at the end that looks cooler
      this will be a rain event for most of eastern mass and areas south of the pike maybe snow mixing in durring the night time hours

  167. Updating…

    And it will illustrate the reason I don’t jump too far toward model runs on events more than a few days in the future, at least in terms of putting out a forecast. 🙂

  168. Hi, TK, I am a longtime fan and first time writer. I used to follow you on the WBZ blog and found you here some time ago. I know that most people here are snow lovers, but I am the opposite. I don’t like driving, walking, or commuting in the snow and ice. Of course, I find a snowfall beautiful from my windows, and I’m sure I will like it much better when I am retired and can look at the beauty of winter without trying to get in and out of Boston. Anyway, all winter I watch all three stations and look at many blogs, but I like yours the best because you speak in depth and I learn much more than if I were just watching the news or hearing teasers about possible major storms, etc. Also, we are both Woburn people! I read this blog all year, not just the winter, and I thank you for my beginning knowledge of what is behind the forecast.

    1. Thank you and welcome!!

      I apologize for not having approved this more quickly. Missed it being posted here at first. 🙂

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