Independence Day Weekend Forecast

74 Comments

9:21AM

The outline from a few days ago is basically the same. Retrogression of high pressure from the western Atlantic will continue and eventually merge with high pressure from over the southern USA to form a large flat ridge of  high pressure, creating a hot weather pattern that will last well into next week. A little house-cleaning details are being taken care of today before this really gets underway. The back-door cold front that cooled off and in some cases fogged up parts of southern NH and eastern MA is heading back northeastward as a warm front and that cooler maritime air will be a distant memory in a short time. The thunderstorm threat is also diminishing, though we cannot rule out pop up storms from time to time in this pattern. For the next few days, the most likely place to see them would be across interior MA and southern NH in the late afternoon to early evening. Plan on mainly rain-free, very warm to hot, humid conditions. The most cloud cover will probably exist today, as the high pressure ridge continues to push the tropical moisture belt that had been over the region back to the west.

Updated forecast for southeastern New  England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

THIS AFTERNOON: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs upper 70s South Coast to 80s elsewhere. Humid. Wind SW 10-15 MPH, gusting 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated afternoon to early evening thunderstorms north and west of  Boston. Humid. Highs from around 80 South Coast to around 90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Muggy. Lows upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs upper 80s to lower 90s, cooler South Coast. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Isolated PM thunderstorms. Lows 65-75. Highs 85-95.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: Scattered PM thunderstorms. Lows 65-75. Highs 85-95.

74 thoughts on “Independence Day Weekend Forecast”

  3. OS, to your previous post, I think the thing you have hit on regarding the pattern and the tropics is that, if this persistent pattern continues into August and September, then whatever forms in the Atlantic Basin is going to be driven either right into the US Coastline or right up the coastline.

    NAO has been positive since mid April, 3 months now. Perhaps, by the height of hurricane season, it will shift and the bermuda high wont be so strong.

    By the way, I’d think snow lovers should be delirious. The past few summers have seen largely negative NAO, only to become positive as winter arrived. Again, conversely, this spring and summer, thus far, the NAO has been largely positive, so perhaps a switch towards negative as autumn and then winter arrive ????

    1. Tom,

      I didn’t even mention that the pattern was FAVORABLE to steer
      tropical systems up the coast. I was alluding to the fact that “should” any
      come up the coast, with Warmer ocean surface temperatures, they would
      maintain intensity longer than normal.

      It “could” get really hairy around here come August. 😀

    2. Thanks for your post, Tom. I’m hoping for snow and cold next winter, but I’m not thinking snow right now, just dreaming about yesterday’s brief interlude of maritime air that finally cooled things off. Oh well, as TK said, that will be a distant memory as triple H conditions take over. However, we’re only 7 weeks or so away from what I consider to be Boston’s most pleasant time of year; the 2 month stretch of fall that cools us off at night and warms us up during the day (generally) without the humidity.

  4. Company wise I’m already preparing for Fall/Aeration Overseedings in late Aug-late Oct, only 6 weeks lol no I’m not saying summer is over but with company I’m always ahead, just hit #479 🙂

  5. Thanks TK for the update.

    Been Pretty SUNNY here for some time now. CLouds have broken up such
    that is more partly cloudy than mostly cloudy.

    Waiting for 10AM obs to see how much temperature rise has responded.

    2. Great link Tom. Thanks. And those temps are Centigrade!! Impressive.

      With this current pattern, it can only go up! 😀

  7. Thanks TK.
    One of the reason for the above normal season in the Atlantic were those ocean temps being above normal. Another reason no El Nino present to tear systems apart. We have already had two named storms in June Andrea and Barry.

    1. Absolutely, good point on no EL Nino JJ ! In fact, look at the lower left part of the Reynolds SST analysis that I posted above, down by the equatorial Pacific and I’d argue that La Nina is having a resurgence.

        1. It begins with AUGUST as far as I’m concerned. 😀

          But you’re right, the biggies have come later in the month.

  8. 10 AM logan Obs.

    Temperature up to 81

    We’ll see how far up it goes. Still considerable cloudiness.
    The sunshine we had here has faded to mostly cloudy conditions.

  11. From NWS: 😀 😀 😀

    ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES
    APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. WITH BOUNDARY LIFTING WELL TO THE N THERE
    IS NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TODAY…BUT SHOULD SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
    AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON

    Sure we will.

  13. thanks for the birthday wishes tom,vicki,jimmy,sue,john ,north and Ace. Ace happy birthday to you.

  15. Happy Birthday AceMaster – I think it might have gotten lost on the last blog so I brought it over here 🙂 Have a special day!

  16. Happy B’day Ace. May the summer bring you lots of thunderstorms and the winter numerous major snowstorms 😉

    2. I think they fall short … 88, maybe 89 if enough sun between now and 6PM.

  21. The time frame for most land falling hurricanes in southern New England will happen between Aug 15th-Sept 30th. Now I understand that it’s possible for it to happen outside of these dates but in general in between these dates is when most of our action would occur.

    1. Current Ocean Temperatures

      Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
      Water Temperature: 63.7 °F (17.6 °C)

      8443970 – Boston, MA (entrance to Boston Harbor)
      Water Temperature: 61.5 °F (16.4 °C)

      NANTUCKET SOUND
      Water Temperature: 69.1 °F (20.6 °C)

      😀 😀 😀

  23. 89F at 3pm, in my opinion, another brutal day out there in combination with these dewpoints. Working outside in spurts, I keep coming in to cool off for a bit.

    I think I see some showers popping on radar, some of the individual cumulus clouds look like they are taller today and a couple look like they are on the verge of releasing a shower.

    1. Forget about a shower or T-storm. Ain’t gonna happen.

      Here is current radar with ZILCH:

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

      As I said earlier, Boston would make a run at 90. I think they make it
      sometime between 3 and 5 PM. 😀

  24. An update on commuter rail, there have been hundreds of people standing everywhere in aisles from south station and we r now at Sharon and still hundreds of people standing, the guy cant even collect the money or punch the tix , it seems a bit unsafe but we r sitting 🙂

  26. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

    4PM Logan Obs:

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

    Last Updated: Jul 3 2013, 3:54 pm EDT
    Wed, 03 Jul 2013 15:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Mostly Cloudy
    Temperature: 87.0 °F (30.6 °C)
    Dewpoint: 70.0 °F (21.1 °C)

    SO we lost some sun. Still possible it crept up to 90 shortly after 3PM????

    Any word?

    1. I’m finding conflicting data. In one place it indicated high hit 90, while another indicated high was 89.

      I guess we’ll find out later. 😀 😀 😀

              1. Todd on ch 4 had a graphic that showed Boston hit 91F ??????

                Perhaps after the 3pm ob, then right before the 87F at 4pm, it did look like a quick shower may have hit Logan, so perhaps it did.

                This 91F is not yet on the obs notes under the column, high last 6 hrs.

    1. Hmmmm I think its a matter of perspective……I’m not thinking many positive thoughts about hitting 90 when we have about 7 more days of the same – at least 🙁

      1. I’m looking forward to the heat. That’s what the summer is all about. I love the extremes of weather. Bring it on! 😀

        1. I agree its summer and bring it on. Where Boston hit over 90 today that should qualify for a maybe 5 day heatwave. Yes let it go longer. It’s what its all about folks. It’s the 4th and it should be hot. Enjoy.

        2. Ill like it too although it is my least favorite, it is still as good as it gets. Just sat outside for dinner and it was lovey. Extremes however always concern me for the elderly and anyone who is ill or doesn’t have AC …. Any extremes

            1. Oh me too. Sooooo these young whipper snappers need to respect how we are affected by extremes …..thanks OS 😆

    2. Thanks. And I thought it didn’t make it. 😀

      Hadi, where did you see it official? I saw that Todd Gutner mentioned it on air.

      1. US National Weather Service Boston MA
        2 hours ago
        Boston’s high temperature was 91 degrees today. Start of a heat wave? Probably continuing through the weekend.

  29. TWC just issued a heat advisory. Although it issued 3 tornado warnings for framingham the other day. I can only think that when it sees anything in middlesex county it txts me that its for framingham.

    1. I think you just hit on the problem. They need to get that down to the
      town level! Good thing you know what’s going on, else you would have lived
      in your basement the other day. 😀 😀

    1. Thanks OS. With the horses – two of which had Lyme – we are pretty good but not as good as we were. I did a lot of research on Lyme. Its a bit disturbing in how it relates to plum island. Not the one in MA but in New York where they do all of the testing.

      I sent this link to my kids. Kids include nieces and nephews. And a million others 🙂

  32. 78 with a 72 dP. My guess is anyone who is cheering for more has AC

    Although I’m on the porch and it has the smell and feel of Americas birthday

  34. I believe that BB put today’s high in Boston at 93, but it will feel like 100 because of the humidity. There is a heat warning today.

    I think the Esplanade opens at 9 am for the mad dash. Or maybe it’s 10 am. ??

    1. 9AM for the Oval and the Lagoon. No mad dash anymore. Very tight security. Wrist bands for both places. I’ll be at the Lagoon line before 9. Setting up right on the river bank as usual.

      Blog is updated! No new info just erased yesterday’s stuff.

      Have a safe day all!

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