The Week Ahead (Belated Edition)

144 Comments

5:34PM

No sense going into great detail about Monday, since it’ll be mainly over by the time most of you read this. You either saw some downpours or you did not. All in all, it was not a total wash out of a day in just about all areas but a few areas did see more persistent shower and storm activity, with localized flooding being the main issue where storms lasted. Are we in for a repeat tomorrow? Yes and no. Though there will be muggy air remaining around tonight through much of tomorrow and showers/storms can pop up at any time, some producing heavy rain, I think we really only have a 3 hour period Tuesday across southeastern New England in which the heaviest and most widespread activity will occur. This is about 11AM to about 2PM for southern NH, east central and northeastern MA, and after 2PM until about sunset for southeastern MA and RI. Once the front interacting with the muggy air pushes to the east and offshore (later Tuesday night), we will see some drier air work in and fair weather which will last through Wednesday. Another cold front will swing across the region from northwest to southeast Thursday, producing clouds and perhaps some passing showers, and introducing a cooler air mass for Thursday night through Friday night, with fair weather. High pressure settling to the south of New England will quickly cause a warm-up over the weekend, and we’ll have to watch another cold front trying to push in from the northwest on Sunday (based on current timing expectations).

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with local downpours. Areas of fog. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with scattered showers through mid morning then  more numerous showers and possible thunderstorms late morning to early afternoon from  Boston north and west and mid to late afternoon to the south of Boston including RI and eventually Cape Cod. Humid. Highs around 80 except 70s South Coast through Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Drying out. Lows in the 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Passing shower midday or afternoon. Low 54. High 75.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 69.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 80.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Passing showers possible. Low 60. High 77.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 70.

144 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (Belated Edition)”

  1. TK, thank you for the update. I think TV mets had showers tomorrow coming later in the day than your forecast though I have not seen a TV met update today.

  8. OS, the only wave I would give a chance to is the one east of the Caribbean and that one is a Longshot. 🙂

  9. I know the weather doesn’t care what we want, but I’m ready for less humidity. It hasn’t fealt like September at all to me, its fealt like the heart of summer. I’m not necessarily rooting for cold, but would like the nights to be able to cool off into the 50s. I guess it will be here in a couple of days.

    1. I agree Tom. I think this could easily be called the summer of humid. Even tonight, when it is not hot, the house feels wet. I will welcome the nice air where OS and I say AHHHHHHHHHH at the same time 🙂

      1. Exactly, some AHHHHH would be great ! I’ve been running the A/C for the last dew days and am ready to get back to fresh, outdoor air.

        1. We have bee running AC too. Even when we are not we keep windows open or the humidity takes over. I just want open windows.

    1. The NWS thinks somewhat and that is why they left the flash flood watch up til 11. I think they will weaken some when they get here.

    2. I’m struggling to think of another line as impressive as this one during the summer in the northeast.

      There’s been some good good warm front/warm sector thunderstorms this summer, but this looks like a good old fashion squall line ahead of a cold front.

  11. Well we’re only 2 days into September. It feels like September because muggy weather is actually pretty common this month. 🙂

    As for the line coming out of NY State? No way. It’ll be a weak line of showers once it reaches eastern MA and southern NH.

    1. Yea yea yea…….and maybe 😀

      I think its hard to find humidity records but TK this has to have been above average. And it is rare we run the AC in September – even the beginning. I am as stingy when it comes to AC as i am heat. I know these things 😉

      1. We have had some Septembers with many days of humidity, and even some heat. We already went over the heat stats previously. Granted it doesn’t get to 70+ dewpoint THAT often in September but it’s not unprecedented either. The ocean water just offshore is at its warmest right now. We often see high pressure in the western Atlantic during the heart of hurricane season. We tend not to get as hot as mid Summer because of the lowering sun angle, but the humidity can spike up. Also being only 2 days into the month makes it a bit early to say we are having an unusually humid month. 🙂 Maybe by Friday it will be an unusually dry month. 😉 It’s just the weather doing its thing.

        1. You know me well enuf to get I understand it happens…….has potential. And you know no one is saying an above average humidity month. Although ill let all that go………bad jokes????? No dissing my friend Emily —- : lol:

              1. That’s when friends step up…..perfect weather blog joke.

                My 4 yr old granddaughter has a new saying. Took me a while to get it but by golly she’s a wise one. She says “boys are flat”

  12. HI September!

    “Muggy” weather makes me want coffee….in a mug 😉 (Sorry, I just had to)

    Hope everyone is enjoying this new month 🙂

    Thanks TK!

    2. I am smiling inside and out. I love it and I do enjoy September. I said the other day that it is the promise of fall and the start of the holidays while it still hangs on to summer.

      Hi Emily:). I should define holidays in my mind….I think of apple picking time as part of the holidays 😉

        1. We always think of it as the start of the nonofficial holiday season. Except some in my family want to go next Sunday. The official start of another season

  13. Hope you all had a great Labor Day Weekend! I enjoyed mine relaxing and keeping cool in the A/C!
    Made it a point to stay clear of Comm Ave and Home Depot while the area celebrated Allston Christmas!
    I’m sure there’s a few students drying out their belongings tonight! Nothing worse than moving in a downpour. We got caught in the Aug 2007 severe weather/tornado (sirens included) when moving my son in his Chicago dorm!

  14. Had a few people in town from Missiouri, we brought them to Plymouth 1 day which I think was a waste of a day just bc I think they found it quite boring and when we went out to eat the dam place didn’t take bank cards,, cash only!! So we walk to another small restaurant same thing no credit cards. That day we swept under the rug forever, but they enjoyed Boston the most especially Back Bay, though the tour got cancelled bc of bus breakdowns, those tour guides are very unorganized and at times quite frustrating waiting and waiting so we cancelled that, we did get some downpours from time to time that had us running at times for cover 🙂

    1. I’m sure they get downpours in Missouri too. 🙂

      And last time I checked, Plymouth isn’t an amusement park. It’s a fairly quiet, and very beautiful old coastal New England town with a bit of history on its resume.

      Just your luck you’d find the only 2 restaurants in New England that don’t take credit cards. 😉 They must have good food if they are still in business. 🙂

    2. When we have out of town visitors, we do extensive research ahead so we have a Plan A and B. Plymouth is a lovely coastal town with a deep history, wonderful shops to explore, and great eateries.

      I am finding more and more restaurants will not accept CCs. I suspect it is an attempt to cut prices without compromising food/quality; however, that is merely a guess. I also suspect there is a bank in Plymouth with an ATM???

      Of all of the friends and family we have had visit over the years, I don’t remember anyone going away without a deeper understanding and enjoyment of this city/area. Although, we also enjoy this area so it’s easy for us to pass that enjoyment on.

      1. We found Plymouth boring but as a small business I take all cc’s, I do not spend any miney at any restaurants or shops that do not take credit cards, I’ve even ordered soda or water to find out they don’t accept credit cards and we leave on the spot, if I can bring convenience to my customers then they can bring that convenience to my family, it’s 2013 not 1982 🙂

        1. Also I refuse to go into a restaurant for them to tell me there’s a 25 min wait to eat there food, no way!! I don’t wait, there suppose to be convenient for me not convenient for them , no way!!

  15. Good morning all. A few thoughts to start the day.

    Nothing from the SPC re: Severe weather for today.
    NWS hints that it is possible.

    When I left the house this AM, I’d swear the front was through. It felt drier to me.
    8AM obs from Logan had dew point DOWN to 66 from 72 last night. Dew points are
    down all over and winds are WEST. Hmmmm
    I’m wondering IF we see ZIPPO in the way of showers and thunderstorms today.
    (Yes I know there is a big cell on Western Long Island producing copious lightning)

    re: Tropics

    Canadian still has that system we’ve been following and still shoots it off shore
    at our latitude:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=156

    GFDL has essentially LOST it:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013090300-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    HWRF has it meandering OTS several hundred miles North of Purrto Rico:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013090300-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    NAVGEM has a weak system near the Bahamas:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc2.cgi?time=2013090300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

  16. Thanks OS – and I was just outside with the dog and thought the same thing about a drier feel. Maybe I’m just getting used to it as the DP here is still 67???

  17. As for the thunderstorms today eastern parts of SNE is the area likely to see the activity today. I would not rule out a strong thunderstorm in that area today.
    Threat Level Index:
    Flooding – Low
    Wind – Low
    Hail – Low
    Tornado – Very Low.
    Will see if the lows need to be upgraded to Elevated.

    1. I don’t see ANY signs of convection so far. TK indicated 11AM to 2PM
      as the time frame, while others simply said anytime this PM and others
      said around 4PM.

      I’m NOT “feeling” it right now. Will keep watching.

      9AM Logan Obs. Dew Point: 66, Wind WEST.
      Wind “should” be SoutWest ahead of the front, Unless some sort of trough
      has gone through ahead of actual front. Also, Something has caused
      the dew point to go down??? Drier air aloft working down?
      If so, how do we get convection?

                1. I laugh when i see “large” hail. Its rare to get hail larger than pea sized around here. Large to me is golf ball to baseball size.

  19. There is now convection in Southern Ct and Creeping into SW RI.
    If one projects this out, IF any convection develops in MA it would
    most likely be South and East of Boston IMHO.

    We shall see. 😀

    1. The large hail threat they mentioned they said was due to cooling in the mid levels. We just went to cloudy here from sunny. I was hoping to mow the lawn today…..

      1. North, i think u will be fine to mow the lawn, unless it takes more than a few hours…

        North Attleboro in the news again, this time for a cop assaulting someone while arresting them??

        1. hehehe – the news media does make me laugh…..they forgot to say the person arrested warned them they’d need backup and that he went after all the cops first.

  20. That area of RI where the rain is moving through does not need any more. They had nasty flooding in Cranston yesterday. It does seem the area moving through is falling apart somewhat – at least I hope I’m reading it correctly.

  21. I am still keeping the threat level index the same. Contine to watch the trends to see if any upgrading to the elevated level is necessary.
    The four levels on the index are
    1. Very Low
    2. Low
    3. Elevated
    4. Significant

  22. It’s not warm really, it’s just super humid out ugh, heading out to Chicago Tommorrow to visit friends, they are natick natives from a few years ago, has anyone been in the old sears tower, it’s gonna be my 1st, everyone says its awesome, anyone on here been there?

    1. I have been there and it is awesome. Enjoy your trip. Land was owned and sold for construction of the tower by a dear friend (we were engaged pre-Mac) – I should say owned by his dad.

      1. We r looking at houses also bc they want to transfer some of there lawyers to Chicago, and I’ve been told the suburbs in Chicago r very nice and tons to do, any towns or cities you recommend?

        1. Not really, Charlie. I was in Chicago and then went to St Charles where a guy I was dating was performing in Summer Stock. That was 40 years ago………….and I can’t begin to tell you how just typing that made me groan!!

  24. I really think that we can call the ALL CLEAR on any convection in Eastern MA.
    Dew point 64 at Norwood.

    Look at this radar loop:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    Certainly some pretty hefty action that cruised all along Long Island, but NADA
    here. 😀

  25. I am sorry you didn’t enjoy my hometown Charlie, I happen to find it quite charming. I’d love to know where you went to eat as I have NEVER found a restaurant in Plymouth that didn’t take cc’s.

    1. We liked it sue for what it is sue, it is a beautiful quiet old town, were just looking for a more vibrant energetic town, probably a bad decision on my part to bring friends to Plymouth when they wanted more like shopping in Boston (Pru or Newbury street) again sue its a nice laid back town 🙂

      1. Charles Plymouth has the most visitors on a yearly basis than anywhere else in Massachusetts. If you need a history lesson on the south shore I would be happy to help out, take care.

        1. Haha John no I don’t need a history lesson, as stated above Plymouth is a nice small historic quiet town, but they wanted to see the Pru, shopping and Newburyport street and north end, I knew this after the fact lol, Plymouth is more of a quiet bedroom community town that the sidewalks roll up at 9pm, take are john

    2. Sandys shack was the 1st place we stopped sue, and no credit cards, it’s ok though we went to the lobster place

    1. There’s several intense cells coming up from the south heading SE. Not sure if they’re going to clip the Cape or SE Mass.

      1. So far it looks like the most precip. will be southeast of the city. It also looks like, at this point anyway, that most storms will develop ahead of the front. However, it almost looks like some of the rain is moving west. I guess we will just see.

          1. This is a more realistic radar loop:

            http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

            I still don’t think that the Boston area sees anything. We shall see.

            Cape and Islands may get clipped.

    1. You are so right.

      What I am amazed at is the consistency of the Canadian Model with this
      system. I don’t care if it’s 200 miles off shore. It had it almost a week ago and IF it does verify, it is a testament to this newly improved model. Of course, it
      could be just blowing smoke.

      We shall see. 😀

  29. Hmmm

    Something just popped in SE NH and convection to our SW is expanding.

    We shall see. Time is running out.

      1. Charlie…I have never been to Sandy’s Shack on the beach. I tend to go to the restaurants in the downtown waterfront area. The owner does specify on her website that she has an ATM on premise.

        1. Here is their website. What a great looking little place. I can understand why they don’t accept CC’s.

          http://www.sandysatplymouthbeach.com/

          In fact catch this…this one one of their pages
          “Open 7 Days a week, 11 a.m. to 8 p.m.
          Call if you are running late… We’ll wait!”
          That’s nice.

          And by looking at their ratings on Yelp and Trip Advisor they’ve gotten some darn good reviews.

          I think Charlie missed out…..

  31. Ooops.

    Convection now spilling into South Central MA and expanding more.

    Looks like it will cover all of SE MA and then some. 😀 😀

    Good thing I don’t give public forecasts, eh? 😀 😀

    1. Nope I don’t Hadi bc most restaurants take everything but for those that don’t take CC’s yes we won’t go, it doesn’t happen usually 🙂

      1. Charlie…some smaller establishments don’t like to give up a percentage of their profits on CC fees. I find nothing wrong with that but it sure as hell figures that you do. Going out to Chicago I hear…moving??? 🙂

        1. No I don’t think so, mainly just visiting, I’m a small business and I probably do less money than most of these restaurants do and I take all credit cards for the convenience of my customers, I expect the same in return, have a good night Keith

          1. Like you said…your choice about not patronizing them…thankfully for Sandy’s your choice seems to in the minority since they seem to be doing a great business and have very good reviews.

            I will have a good night Charlie and enjoy your trip to Chicago…who knows maybe you’ll find it more exciting and vibrant than the Boston area.

            2. We would only move bc they would be transferring my wife’s job and many others from boston to Chicago. No other reason, and if we did move there it would be a clean,vibrant,exciting place somewhere in a nice suburb town/city where you can eat a nice meal in a nice restaurant within 15 min’s of my house that doesn’t close at 9pm, I don’t believe it’s gonna happen but if it does it would be in a town like stated above

  37. Great sky ….. Very threatening to our south, but very dark too, so its actually difficult to see the individual clouds.

    Interestingly, there’s also some majestic cumulus clouds looking off to the north.

    Very, very humid, the air in the school is so stale.

  39. Decent lightning passing to our southeast, ironically in that precip area that looks like steady rain, but not too convective.

        1. According to an article that OS posted earlier by Wx Risk, the fewer named storms, the more snow for the upcoming winter. Years 1977 and 2002 are the most recent examples and we all know what followed THOSE winters… 😉

  42. I think I want to see Falmouth’s rain total once the last storm moves out. They have been getting lots of heavy rain the last 3 hrs per the observations.

  43. re: Tropics

    12Z Canadian.

    Category 3 hurricane off shore of MA about 250 miles or so.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=132

    Euro Refuses to bite, but still has another one out there at hour 240, just like the 0Z run. SO something is up down the road for sure!

    12z Ukmet has a weak tropical system:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=240&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    12Z HWRF:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013090312-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    12Z GFDL:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013090312-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    So, it looks like this disturbance currently in the Caribbean WILL develop.
    Early indications are that it Stays Off Shore. We shall watch.

  44. btw, NO convection for the immediate Boston area. Looks like the Cape and Islands
    got into the good stuff. 😀

  45. No I don’t think so, mainly just visiting, I’m a small business and I probably do less money than most of these restaurants do and I take all credit cards for the convenience of my customers, I expect the same in return, have a good night Keith

  47. Still surprises me that bz still does their weather blog, with some of the vile crap the mets take from some bloggers. thier are some real jerks on that blog.

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