Late Summer See-Saw

203 Comments

2:38AM

School’s back in session and September is nearly a week old. For many, this is Fall, but we all know that technically we are pushing through the late Summer with the equinox still many days away. The pattern will be one of mostly dry weather and roller-coaster temperatures (cool today, warmer  weekend, cooler early  next week, warmer mid next week). The only precipitation threat comes during the morning hours of Sunday as a disturbance passes through the region then perhaps at the very end of the forecast period which is too far away to figure out any detail.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind N 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows middle 40s inland valleys to lower 50s coast and urban areas. Wind light SW.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs around 80, 70s South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late. Lows around 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with passing showers morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the 70s. Wind W shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 70.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 54. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 61. High 80.

203 thoughts on “Late Summer See-Saw”

  3. Good morning.

    It looks like Gabrielle has dissipated, however, the remnants “may” regenerate.
    The NHC computer models have pretty much given up on it. The only model
    that Still has this system developing is the Canadian, albeit much weaker than
    previously depicted:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=108&fixhh=1&hh=102

    I just don’t know IF the Tropics are going to get going at all this season.

    Looking at the Euro and the GFS not much cooking. GFS has virtually NOTHING
    for the next 16 days bringing us to 9/22!!!!!! The Euro has a system about 7 days out
    but it has it going POOF a few days later.

    Mother Nature went to the cupboard, BUT the Cupboard was bare!!! Who will be
    the first to declare Hurricane Season 2013 OVER? Not quite yet for me, but very very
    close. 😀 😀

    1. Is it possible that hurricane Sandy zapped all the energy from the Atlantic even a year later preventing anything new to develop?

      If this is possible, I have to say THANKS Sandy! 😀

  6. Thanks tk 🙂 local ratings last night for Yankees redsox were 11.1, and the local tv rating for the ravens/broncos game was a 15.8, a game that did not have our team playing in it more new Englanders watched ravens/broncos games over a sept NFL game, how times have changed, that tv rating says a whole bunch, anyways beautiful day today 🙂

    1. Sorry it meant to say more new Englanders watch a nfl game in sept that did not have our home team playing in it while a Sept baseball game between the redsox Yankees game takes 2nd place, times have changed!!

      1. We just wanted to see how Welker did, that is all.
        Even though he muffed the punt, he did very well indeed!! 😀

        Good for him. I hope he lights up the league!

          1. Sue how is the blue eyed crab. I have a certificate for there and I think my wife and I will try lunch there on monday. Fare view for dinner tomorrow night to celebrate 11th anniversary.

      1. Who cares about the ratings???? All I care about is that Peyton Manning got me 74 points alone on my fantasy football team. 🙂

          1. Charlie and anything that Charlie wants to talk about…that’s the name of the blog somedays…Actually Charlie’s getting pretty boring to me.

            1. Typical Charlie Post…

              “Good Morning…..Boston stinks…football is better than anything else….I know more about this stuff than any of you…Have a good day (which basically means no one is right expect Charlie)…”

              Sorry to post like this folks..but Charlie (to me) is just so darn boring and aggravating. I wish …like Facebook…there was away to hide his posts.

    1. Closest pass Fri the 13th. That was the date my fiance wanted to get married and i was like, nope, not right in the heart of hurricane season. Wouldn’t that be something!

      1. I like Friday the 13ths……and yes that would definitely be something. Does that mean your wedding is soon??

    1. Thanks Vicki,

      It did mess up my commute, but I managed. That accident is only a few streets over from my house. Helicopters have been driving us NUTS as they continually
      fly over the house as they turn and go back to the scene.

      Horrific accident. An SUV jumped the median and hit a truck head on.
      I can’t believe that there weren’t fatalities.

  9. Nice job Hadi! I should try those contests more often. I used to have a lot of fun with the forecasting contest in college. 🙂

  10. Hi WHW readers!

    What a splendid early September day – a very nice taste of Fall, especially this morning. Though the air is crisp & cool for this time of year you can still feel some decent warmth in the sun. The angle may be a lot lower than July but it’s not THAT low yet.

    Summer feel returns tomorrow – breaking 80 in most locations except those with direct air flow off the water or elevation above a few hundred feet.

    Sunday will act a bit like Thursday with a morning cold frontal passage. Probably only a few showers with lots of clouds to start the day then flipping to sunnier by afternoon and a bit cooler than Saturday.

    Monday will somewhat mimic today.

    Warm-up comes quickly Tuesday-Wednesday, middle 70s to lower 80s. Remains to be seen how much cloudiness will become involved especially Wednesday as a trough approaches from the west. This should try to push a cold front through here by Thursday but this time things may bog down a little and allow a low pressure wave to form that may make for an unsettled ending to the week (maybe some rain Friday?). Still looking over things to see how realistic this probability is. That leaves some uncertainty when looking out as far as next weekend as to how things play out.

    Longer range: Eying some signs of a flip to a trough West / ridge East weather pattern just after the mid point of September which may return us to a pattern much like we saw in July, only modified because it will be mid to late September. This also puts the East Coast into a more vulnerable position regarding tropical systems. The thing is, we can’t seem to GET any tropical systems to get going and sustain themselves. Generally good news unless you really want to see a storm. 😉

  12. Thank you, TK! Just loving this weather – not too warm, not cold, crisp — humidity in check, perfect! Happy belated to Sue, congrats to Ace on his engagement, and praying North’s mom is doing well. Just a quick question to the group: how is everyone faring with allergies so far? Although the pollen counts don’t seem to be atrocious, I’ve been feeling it lately.

    1. I do not have a history of allergies and I am sitting on the porch continuously clearing my throat. A lot of folks I know have said they are having trouble.

    2. As a child my allergies were bad, especially in weed season. I took shots on a weekly basis. For the most part I outgrew the allergies though never completely got rid of them, but they got easy enough to the point where I don’t even take allergy meds anymore. However, I am feeling it a little bit the last few days. If I’m going to feel it during weed season this is typically the week for me.

      1. My allergies seem to have shifted. When I was younger it seemed like the spring was always horrible…Now as I’m older it seems like the fall is the worst. That said I love the fall in New England and wouldn’t trade it for anything.

          2. Vicki, you’re right – last year was terrible. This year wasn’t as bad, I think, and I am very sensitive to all types of pollen and mold spores. Very phlemmy – it’s gross! TK and Keith, isn’t it interesting how your bodies have changed with the allergens – for Keith, do you think you’ve developed an immunity to the spring ones, and perhaps a lower tolerance for the fall allergens? Both seasons have always been hard for me allergywise, so much so that a doctor told me it would be wise to not rake leaves in the fall ;). I always say I love spring but spring doesn’t love me 😀 Feel better, everyone!

    1. Wonderful article OS. Odd sometimes that those who debunk global warming will point out you cannot base it on one factor or one season yet……

      1. I know. They’ve been all over the map this year.

        We’ll just have to wait and see. (IF we have enough time! 😀 :D)

    1. How is it that much weaker systems can produce these over water?

      My guess is that there is virtually no frictional forces, so it doesn’t take as
      much energy to get things spinning. 😀

      1. I would love to see one. Heck I’m still excited about the roll cloud photo mac got at Humarock and that doesn’t begin to compare

  19. I think I finally figured it out. I do love every season. Being totally honest, I could pass on the excessive HHH we had in July. And although excessive cold doesn’t bother me, for the sake of others, it is difficult too

    BUT. I think it is not only the end of each season but the start of each new season I love. I summer I get to just dress in shorts and go barefoot. But tonight I get to wear sweats and a long sleeved shirt and socks. I simply could not enjoy the same day in and day out

    There is absolutely nothing like New England

    1. Well said, Vicki, I agree!! I don’t think I could live anywhere else… except maybe the San Francisco Bay area, and even then, I’d miss our seasons, and I’d miss thunderstorms, snowstorms, tropical systems… aw heck, I guess I couldn’t live there 😀 LOL!

  20. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Hurricane season officially ends on …
    A. September 30th
    B. October 31st
    C. November 30th
    D. December 31st

    I believe both the Atlantic & Pacific hurricane seasons end on the same date. No cheating. Answer later today.

  21. 0Z Canadian, Still at it with this Tropical System. Here it is on Thursday evening,
    9/12. (0Z 9/13)

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=144

    And Friday morning, 9/13 (12Z)

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=156

    Closer still than depicted on yesterday’s 12Z run.

    Euro does NOT have it.

    The only other model that has anything is the HWRF, and it is far off shore and weak:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013090612-invest99l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    So is the Canadian just full of crap OR what? It has had a system for 8 or 9 days.

    Anyway, will be interesting to see how it plays out.

    This is what the NHC has to say about this system:

    A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS…ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE…IS LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A MEDIUM CHANCE…40 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

    1. Here is a little hurricane guide I found.

      Hurricane Scale

      Category Mph Pressure(Millibars)

      1 74-95 980+

      2 119-153 979-965

      3 111-130 964-945

      4 131-155 944-920

      5 156+ below 920

      So this Tropical system depicted by the Canadian would be A Category 1 hurricane, or perhaps just a really strong tropical storm.

    2. I think we have a better chance of getting snow next week lol than getting any sort of hurricane hit here, very very rare 🙂

  22. What a great day yesterday and great start to the day today. It looks like summer is going to make a comeback middle of next week. I am not surprised since summer rarely ends quietly. Hopefully the front coming through will keep anything that trys to form in the tropics away from the east coast.

  23. Longshot it’s C but for New England it’s A, once we get into Oct the waters r to cool for a hurricane hit here 🙂

  24. John..I have never been to the Blue Eyed Crab but have heard nothing but great things. I have many coworkers that go for lunch and consider it their favorite restaurant. Happy Anniversay!

        1. Thanks sue and Vicki for the information. My sister gave me a certificate for there for my birthday and figured while I’m off Monday maybe we would go and use it. What a great stretch of weather, beautiful day today. I have always enjoyed fall type weather cool at night and great temps during the day, even know its not fall yet. I just don’t like what comes after fall. It’s just my makeup I’m a shorts and tshirt kind of guy. But winter is. What it is and I just deal with it. Enjoy the weekend all.

          1. Hahahaha. My SIL wears shorts and tee shirts and sneakers to shovel :). I don’t wear jackets but I do think he has a serious problem 🙂 🙂

  26. Barry said on air this morning that the highest temperature in Boston during the month of September is 99. It is actually 102 set today in 1881.

    I am somewhat surprised that Barry would screw up like that. He is usually very good on weather stats. 😉

    Anyway, it is just good to see Barry still on the air with WBZ. I hope he sticks around at least one more winter season. 😀

  27. Regarding the Mother Jones article that OS posted, I don’t believe one season sets the tone of our future climate. I am very grateful for the quiet hurricane season and would love to see it continue indefinitely, but I know better THAT will never be the case. Next year could easily revert back to normal and then some regarding tropical activity. We will see.

    1. Hehehe. I not think so either nor do those who do not support global warming….unless for some it doesn’t support it 😉

  29. What is up with the Canadian Model. It INSISTS that a tropical system will
    come up off of the East Coast:

    I give you a progression:

    Thursday Morning

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=120

    Thursday Evening

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=132

    Friday Morning

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

    989 mb just South of us and 988 mb just North of us.

    That easily could be a Category 1 Hurricane or possibly a fairly hefty Tropical Storm.

    Note: 12Z GFS does NOT have this.
    Too early for 12Z Euro

    2. Also, this is MUCH closer than last night’s 0Z run!!!

      Why is this the ONLY Model to have this feature?? Probably because it is
      pure fantasy, but I watch to see. Again, should this pan out, I am going to pay
      particularly close attention to this model during the Winter. 😀 😀 😀

  30. The model has been very consistent. I also notice a front coming through which should keep that system being depicted over the fish.

        1. I agree and as I always say whenever there is a storm on the east coast being depicted it needs to be watched.

  32. From what I’m hearing through residents of Plainville and just driving around seeing hundreds and hundreds of vote yes billboards everywhere it appears Plainvilles gonna get 1,250 slot machines at the Plainridge race course, what a good deal for the town, I wonder what foxboros thinking now, they just fought tooth and nail a casino in trendy Foxboro, and now it’s just next door, the school system really makes out in Plainville. It’s just a matter of time, where gonna be getting casinos and just where, good day all 🙂

    1. Let plainville handle the headaches. Smart Foxboro. Just another way to take money from poor and give to wealth

      Hmmmmm did I say that outloud

    2. Just because they vote yes doesn’t mean they will get it. The racecourse still needs to be bought out because of the issue with one of owners and then the state has to choose that site as the only one to get the slot parlor in the state. By no means a done deal.

  33. Storm coming off the African coast looks like will become some sort of tropical storm, but fortunately most of the Cape Verde style lows have had a tough time making it across the Atlantic this summer.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    1. It will “probably” become a named storm for awhile before it moves into
      the Hurricane Graveyard. 😀 😀

  35. Answer to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Hurricane season officially ends on …
    A. September 30th
    B. October 31st
    C. November 30th
    D. December 31st

    Everyone was correct .. the answer is C. There are different beginning dates for hurricane season between the Atlantic and Pacific and I believe there are 2 starting dates in the Pacific … the eastern Pacific and the western Pacific.

  36. To All:

    Has anyone got an idea of tomorrow morning’s forecast. Dear old mom wants to walk along the Charles around 8:30 or 9 am.

      1. You are asking the wrong person. I LOVE food…far too much. I’m not a dessert person so go apple picking for the fun and family. Mac is the apple pie master. Or crisp. He prefers courtland for his pies. Granny Smith if you like more tart. And he said one from New York he can’t remember. Maybe empire.

        2. Vicki,

          How can he NOT like McIntosh????

          Mac for Mac. 😀

          Btw, its the only apple I will eat. I hate all others. 😀

  38. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On this date in 1900, the worst hurricane death toll took place in…
    A. Galveston, TX
    B. Miami, FL
    C. New Orleans, LA
    D. Charlestown, SC

    Answer later today.

  41. I am going with A.
    I am hoping this is the last blast of heat and humidity coming for the summer of 2013. Keeping an eye on the thunderstorm potential for Thursday.

    1. For once seeing a possible threat on thurs will not concern mac. His league ended although he and his partner ended up tied with another team for first place in their division so will have a playoff a week from thurs.

  43. Old Salty

    Finally, the Canadian is backing off the tropical system.

    Way off shore again and MUCH weaker and a small system:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=114

    Regarding that wave off the coast of Africa. It’s certainly destined to become
    a named storm. One of the Hurricane models has it getting close to, if not a hurricane, while the other keeps it weaker.

    In any case, this will become a RECORD year with NO Atlantic hurricanes prior
    to 9/10. Also, there is an excellent chance that there will be NONE this year AND
    that has never happened since we have been keeping records.

    Amazing!

  46. One more note of interest regarding the Mother Jones article that OS posted is that after Sept. 10th the number of hurricanes literally plummets then spikes up again briefly just prior to October 20th and then actually ticks up a bit around Nov. 10th before dropping off for good by December…assuming I read the chart correctly.

    1. I’ve been told there’s only 1 spike, the other 2 are variables in weather pattern over the past, it appears New England will escape hurricanes this year yet again, my nephew bugs me all the time saying when’s a hurricane gonna hit us uncle only cause I’ve talked about Gloria when I was a teenager, my nephews 17, he’s never seen one yet, if I’m not mistaken we get 1 every 30-40 yrs on average

        1. I believe we have had 7 in my lifetime and I’m not 210. That doesn’t count a number of hurricanes that remained offshore but produced hurricane force winds in New England land areas

        2. Take that back…..I had year for bob mixed with another date. Well we will have to arrange for one then….maybe not this year and hopefully not too destructive.

    2. From SPC re: Day 4 through 8:

      ALTHOUGH…ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY…FORECAST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT.

      It will be interesting to see if a Severe risk is posted for the day 1 outlook
      on Thursday.

  48. Have to keep an eye on the timing of front in future model runs and how much sunshine we get on Thursday. There are some ingredients there that makes me want to keep an eye on this.

  52. Patriots look ok to this point, the main issue is offensive line like in preseason game #3, they need to fix that

  57. Football is amazing! Just 9 seconds and the Pats score! 5 more seconds – and – the Pats win – 23-21.

    Anyway, a gorgeous day – but I have been stuck in w/ bad allergy. I have been coughing for the past several days – no fever. At least I think it’s allergy. Hope everyone had a nice wknd.

    North – hope your mother is feeling better. My mother fell and is in the hospital – ok, should be home tomorrow.

    2. Sorry to hear that Rainshine, glad she will be out tomorrow. Hope she did not get hurt too bad.

      My Mom is status quo. She had another MRI type test today to focus on her gallbladder, pancreas and liver and their ducts. She was back on just ice chips again yesterday. I can see her starting to get depressed now about being in there 3 1/2 weeks. Thanks for asking about her. I hope this week she turns the corner.

      1. Rainshine I’m sorry you are not feeling well. I’ve heard many say allergies are bad but there seems to be an odd cold going around also. I hope you feel better quickly

        North your mom has done well not to be depressed before now. Has she considered a third opinion totally unrelated to the hosp she is in now. It seems a long time not to figure something out but I am far from a doctor and please take that with a grain of salt

        1. They are telling us the pancreatitis can take a while to recoup from. Te test this am was to see of the gallstone she has that is blocking one of her ducts can be removed. If it can then they will send her up to Boston for the procedure. Very frustrating at Falmouth hospital. I do not have a lot of faith in them there. My brother and father thinks its great though….so it is a uphill battle for me to get her out of there for another opinion

          Got to go apple picking today. Crisp time tonight!

          1. Mac said our crisp is still in the apples. Please save me a bite of yours if you have extra 😉

            I feel for you. I have always been the one in charge of health issues and am a firm believer in researching doctors and hospitals. It isn’t easy, especially when everyone isn’t on the same page. I like that they will send her to Boston for the procedure. I’m thinking very positive thoughts for you and your mom!!

    1. Ugly game. Offensive line as Charlie said needs help. They need another wide receiver. Defense ok. Just my opinion.

  59. Amandola looked good, but right now I would say the team has a fair amount of work to do. Brady needs to work with a spread out offense with lots of options. I am not sure I saw the type of O that brady “requires.”

    1. Agreed. Any win is certainly just that but…… And its the first game. Work will be done. Its what they do. I think when Ridley is let out of dog house he’ll be ok

      1. They should ship Ridley out of town. I don’t EVER want to see him on the field again. Never! I have ZERO use for a back who
        continually puts the ball on the ground. He had some problems last year as well. Bye-Bye Ridley.

        1. He’s one of best rushers in league. That being said, he’s worked out of not being able to hold the ball before. BB won’t tolerate it so he either gets it together or he’s history. Even I could tell he’s looking out of shape and slow. Overconfidence? Who knows. It it is it’ll be gone after today

          1. I AGREE. He is a great rusher, but it does not good IF he drops the ball.

            I guessing he is GONE this week. We shall see
            how patient BB is this week.

            If not gone, he should tie a football around his hand and have Ridley run around the practice field the entire practice EVERY day this week!

            After that he should…..Ah never mind, this is a family blog. 😀

            Can you tell I’m Pissed?

            1. heheheh – he was one of the ones my SIL was “discussing” loudly today. And I agree. Either he figures how to hold onto the ball or out he goes. BB will absolutely NOT tolerate it and he knows that.

  60. We saw in Thompkins what it’s like to go from preseason to regular season, he was not aware at all, needs work

      1. I was expecting more also. He’s got a lot of work to do to move past college ball. I sure haven’t given up no him though. My guess is Brady and company see the potential. Its just a question as to whether it can be fine tuned. If anyone can do it, they can

      1. But maybe a hurricane by record date. We will see. I have heard a forecast of strengthening like that other times this year only to go poof as OS says. 🙂

  65. Answer to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On this date in 1900, the worst hurricane death toll took place in…
    A. Galveston, TX
    B. Miami, FL
    C. New Orleans, LA
    D. Charlestown, SC

    The correct answer is A. Think everyone got it right.

    1. My take is…
      Wednesday: Sunny but get ready for some mid summer heat. Highs 90-95 unless you are on a coast that faces west.
      Thursday: Partly sunny & hazy with scattered PM t-storms, but I feel it may be slow enough that most of the action holds off until the evening or night.
      With Thursday being 4 days away please check back on that.

  67. 7:30 and dark. Fall it is a comin’. By that I might mostly mean the holidays

    Lovely cool breeze and temps. 58.8 with a dew point of 39

    Woooooeeeeeee

  68. If the front slows down as TK suggests, then severe storms could be an issue for the Pats game Thursday evening?

    1. I hesitate to call for a severe threat this far out, but with a fairly strong cold front heading into a late summer heat, it cannot be ruled out.

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