Quiet Start To December

159 Comments

5:25PM

Apologies for the lack of “The Week Ahead”. This post takes the place of it for this week. 🙂

It will be a milder week than the previous, with no major weather systems, just sluggish cold front late in the week. An ocean storm will remain far enough offshore to keep its precipitation shield over the water Tuesday and early Wednesday, but it will stir up the waters and that in combination with astronomical high tides may result in minor coastal flooding, especially at the Tuesday morning high tide. The general pattern across the US this week features a trough in the Southwest and a long southwest to northeast jet stream into the eastern US with a ridge of high pressure east of Florida. Very cold air exists in Canada and though it cannot make a full punch into the East at this time, pieces of it will glance the region at times.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Patchy fog. Lows 30-35. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds and patchy fog in the morning. Increasing sun in the afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the upper 20s valleys to middle 30s coast and urban areas. Wind light NW.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs around 40. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming light variable.

THURSDAY: AM rain showers / PM partial sun. Low 35. High 45.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers possible. Low 35. High 47.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 41.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 23. High 38.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 34. High 44.

159 thoughts on “Quiet Start To December”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Current ob from Kalispell, MT ….

    Heavy Snow, 21F, NE wind at 28 kts, gusting to 35 ….WC : 3F …. Visibility 1/4 mile.

    I’m very happy with our weather. 🙂 🙂

      2. Respectfully tk I think it’s to early to call rain. The cold air will be back in place and I’m betting it will hang around. Just need the right track and bam.

          1. What was your prediction for December. I’ll be shocked if we don’t get any measurable precipitation in the form of snow.

  8. A synoptic pattern that shows a digging mountain west trough, a southeast ridge with a return flow from the SW, and a ridge building to the Northeast of SNE, does not indicate snow to me. Models may vacillate and climatology may skew some surface temps down within said model output, but i tend to agree with TK here that the low passes well to the NW of SNE next Monday.

    1. I also suspect Rain for next Monday but nobody can say for certain a week out that that’s how it will play out a week out and with cold returning by the end of the weekend. The computer models don’t have a clue as they seem to be doing there usual flip flopping. Time will tell. JMA I would like your thoughts on going into the winter where October snow in Syberia had been above average and weak El Niño in place, what those winters produced more in the way of snow but also below average in the cold dept.

  9. As best I could, I was kind of curious to see how many days in a winter, at Logan, did it record a snowfall greater than 1.0 inches. I just looked at the last 5 winters.

    14 days in 2008-2009

    8 days in 2009-2010

    13 days in 2010-2011

    3 days in 2011-2012

    9 days last winter 2012-2013

    I should have been writing this down as I tallied, so, I think, but am not 100% certain its correct.

    Its not necessarily that they are all individual weather events. Several times, there were 2 days back to back (started late on one day and finished after midnight on the next day).

    1. Thanks Tom. Interesting. An average of 9 days out of an entire winter season. Although it scares me a bit to say that to a math teacher if my figuring is incorrect 😉

  11. Rain, rain and more rain, almost time to start to see if any white Christmas is possible, 3 weeks away 🙂

  12. I am not worried about a white Christmas yet. There is plenty of time and all you need is one inch of snow on the ground for it to be a White Christmas.

      1. Vicki different there are different percentages for a White Christmas depending on what part of CT you live in. If you live near the shoreline its a 25% chance. The further away you are from the shoreline the percentage is greater for a White Christmas with the biggest percentage in the northwest hills.

    1. Well now ….. Lets see what the accuweather 45 day outlook has in it this evening …..

      There’s going to be brilliant sunshine on Dec. 13th, as opposed to just sunny on the 12th…….

      A pm thunderstorm, in spots, on the 18th ……..

      Oooh ….. A bit of rain and snow on Christmas Day.

      Snow at times on New Years Day………. Good, I wont be awake until at least 10am, perhaps it will be early morning snow.

      And going out all the way to January 15th, 2014 ….. Hazy sun, high 27F.

      So, there we go. Green Christmas, sorry. 🙁

  14. There is no reason to go with anything other than climatology on December 2 when trying to figure out the chances of a white Christmas. The holiday is 3 weeks and 2 days away. And even in an unfavorable pattern for snow, it can snow. All it takes is one short-lived combination of just the right ingredients. This is always true in meteorology. For example, Hurricane Andrew came in an otherwise “lame” hurricane year.

    There are already signs of a pattern change back to cold/dry with clippers starting around the middle of next week.

  15. Listened to TV mets this am and none called for pure snow on Sun/Mon. Most said icy or used my “favorite” words, wintry mix.

  16. I’m With JJ. Break out the UGH meter because we’re going to need it.

    Looking over the charts this AM, I see NO SNOW (or precious little) over the next week or so. I think that TK and JMA are right on target. We shall see as there always can
    be surprises around here.

    Waiting on 12Z runs. 😀

  19. These are storm totals. Anyone have one to add today??

    John 80.0
    Hadi 68.8
    Cat966g 65.0
    shotime 58.0
    Tjammer 57.7
    North 52.6
    Shreedhar 52.0
    Scott77 51.0
    Longshot 48.0
    Vicki 43.3
    kane 41.6
    Matt S 39.5
    TK 38.8
    Haterain 38.0
    JimmyJames 36.2
    Charlie 35.4
    rainshine 35.0
    WeatherWiz 32.1
    Joshua 32.0
    Philip 31.7
    AceMaster 30.5
    Old Salty 28.5
    Retrac 27.7
    Sue 24.2
    Tom 19.4

    1. Pretty impressive STORM totals!!!

      Are you sure you didn’t mean SEASON totals. 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

  20. re: 12/9 event – Grasping at Straws 😀

    Look at this 06Z GFS surface map with 850MB temps.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013120306&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=147

    See that bubble of low pressure sticking out into the ocean East of New Jersey and Delaware? That is a “suggestion” of a secondary low pressure system developing (or trying to develop) off the coast. Subsequent maps indicate that it does NOT develop until waaaaaaaaaay too late.

    However, even so the cold looks like it wants to be stubborn and hold on. WILL it force a coastal development?????????????????????????????????????

    Probably NOT, but for me, it still gives me something to watch. 😀

    Any thoughts?

    1. Actually, that is sporting some sort of redevelopment.

      There may just be a surprise left in this one. 😀

  23. From NWS office at Taunton this AM:

    MON-TUE…
    GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES
    WILL PASS OVER OR NW OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. EITHER OF THESE TRACKS SUGGESTS A MAINLY WET RATHER THAN WHITE SCENARIO. SHOULD THIS ULTIMATELY VERIFY…IT WOULD ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STRONG WINDS AS WELL…FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS COLD SNAP BY TUE. STILL SOME TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME…AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THIS FEATURE SOMEWHAT…LIKELY DUE TO THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE N. GIVEN THE FEATURES AT PLAY…WILL NEED TO MONITOR…BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

    This “blocking” High to the North OFTEN is a contributing factor in FORCING
    Coastal redevelopment of systems. Will it do it this time? Who knows. Current
    models indicate, Yes, BUT TOO LATE. Still needs to be WATCHED. 😀

      1. You mean there is someone out there? 😀 😀

        Matt, you may be correct. I was just passing on what the NWS
        had to say.

      2. BUT, this is NOT the situation discussed by the NWS.
        They were discussing the set up for 12/9, not 12/7 as depicted above. 😀 😀 😀

  26. Geez I see lots of wetness next week judging by the models, maybe another 2 inches of rain, can you say bye bye to the drought if this pans out, will see, it looks to warm for any snow in Boston or Providence, enjoy the beautiful day 🙂

  28. Tweet from Todd G 28 min ago. Must be seeing something we are not.

    @ToddWBZ: High pressure will “lock” in cold air Sunday night & Monday…signs pointing to a snowy, icy mix in New England. #WBZ http://t.co/rwrNAhKoMS

    1. That’s exactly what I was saying lastnight about the cold sticking around but tk is not seeing that. The colder air is heading back come Sunday and this is where our chances happen.

  31. Matt Noyes tweet about Sunday into Monday

    @MattNoyesNECN: Almost everything right now agrees on surface wind from southeast in Southern NewEng Sun Night/Monday, says coast could be all rain

  32. Hadi,

    Now there are some confusing SIGNALS!!!!!!!!
    One Met is telling us SNOW/ICE and the other is telling us RAIN.
    Go figure!!!!!!!!

    There will be some precip with the passage of the arctic Front on Saturday, 12/7.
    The so-called Main event is slated for MONDAY, 12/9.

    1. If given a choice between what Matt Noyes says vs. Todd Gutner, you have
      to take Matt Noyes EVERY time. 😀

  33. 12Z GFS for Monday’s event. Storm system passes WELL to our North West.
    What is Todd G. seeing????????????????????????????????????????????????

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013120312&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=150

    The only thing I can say is that the cold air hangs tough for awhile, but the
    WARMTH wins out. At least on this particular model run. 😀 😀

    This is the snow/ice map prior to the transition to RAIN. Big woo….

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013120312&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=150

    1. For Crying out loud. He posted this from the 06Z GFS even while the
      12Z run was almost out far enough?????????? WHY????????????????

    1. Open the picture in the post, right click on the picture and choose “copy image URL” then u can paste it here

  39. Good afternoon all,

    First of all, I was out at lunch. What a day! gorgeous out there. Car thermometer
    was reading 48. Not much wind. It was like a BEACH day out there. A WINNER!

    Re: 12/9 event. 😀 😀 😀
    Right now it’s laughable!!

    Here is the 12Z Euro at 144 hours, showing a full blown LAKES CUTTER:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013120312&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=144

    Here is the Euro at 168 hours, showing an elongated low along the front just
    South of NewEngland with WARMTH at 850MB, so we get SCREWED even with
    whatever precip there is with this!!!!!!!!!!!!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013120312&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=144

    Here is the 12Z CMC, with WARMTH at 850MB and a LAKES CUTTER with
    Coastal development TOO LATE:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=168

    Here’s the 12Z UKMET. Not sure this helps.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=144

      1. Classic battle between the SOUTHEAST RIDGE and the
        ARCTIC HIGH. 😀 😀

        Guess what is winning??????????

    1. Ok, so this is the 0Z Euro snow map for the entire 10 day period (240 hours)????
      Can see it very well now.

  45. 12Z Euro does indicate some snow prior to a change over to rain with cold air
    haning tough for awhile. We’ll have to wait and see if it holds longer than expected
    or not.

    I’ve seen it go either way before.

  46. Here is euro text output for KBOS

    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS LAT= 42.37 LON= -71.03 ELE= 20

    12Z DEC03
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    TUE 12Z 03-DEC 1.3 0.5 1013 96 52 0.00 549 539
    TUE 18Z 03-DEC 8.3 1.0 1011 62 56 0.00 547 538
    WED 00Z 04-DEC 2.2 -1.0 1013 84 43 0.00 547 536
    WED 06Z 04-DEC -0.2 -0.5 1015 91 33 0.00 549 537
    WED 12Z 04-DEC -1.2 0.8 1018 90 60 0.00 552 537
    WED 18Z 04-DEC 6.3 1.2 1019 51 70 0.00 554 538
    THU 00Z 05-DEC 1.0 1.2 1022 80 85 0.00 558 541
    THU 06Z 05-DEC 0.7 1.2 1023 83 34 0.00 563 545
    THU 12Z 05-DEC 3.1 3.0 1022 87 37 0.00 565 547
    THU 18Z 05-DEC 7.9 5.1 1019 82 38 0.01 567 552
    FRI 00Z 06-DEC 6.6 8.5 1016 98 27 0.02 569 556
    FRI 06Z 06-DEC 11.5 10.4 1012 98 88 0.11 569 559
    FRI 12Z 06-DEC 11.4 10.3 1013 98 93 0.03 569 558
    FRI 18Z 06-DEC 6.5 6.1 1015 91 98 0.07 567 555
    SAT 00Z 07-DEC 3.7 3.5 1018 93 100 0.09 567 552
    SAT 06Z 07-DEC 1.5 -0.5 1018 98 100 0.11 563 549
    SAT 12Z 07-DEC 1.0 -3.6 1021 94 95 0.18 559 543
    SAT 18Z 07-DEC 4.3 -5.7 1022 49 16 0.00 556 539
    SUN 00Z 08-DEC -0.9 -11.1 1027 64 5 0.00 556 535
    SUN 06Z 08-DEC -2.6 -13.7 1031 57 5 0.00 554 530
    SUN 12Z 08-DEC -3.8 -12.1 1036 50 18 0.00 556 529
    SUN 18Z 08-DEC -0.4 -9.9 1036 34 34 0.00 558 530
    MON 00Z 09-DEC -1.8 -7.7 1037 40 35 0.00 560 531
    MON 06Z 09-DEC -2.0 -6.9 1035 51 98 0.00 561 534
    MON 12Z 09-DEC -0.8 -5.0 1031 81 99 0.08 565 541
    MON 18Z 09-DEC 2.1 -0.1 1022 96 94 0.35 566 548
    TUE 00Z 10-DEC 5.0 7.5 1014 98 7 0.11 566 554
    TUE 06Z 10-DEC 2.6 6.3 1013 98 66 0.01 563 553
    TUE 12Z 10-DEC 2.5 1.6 1009 98 98 0.26 559 552

    1. Hmm

      0.43 inch of melted WHILE it is cold enough to snow.

      We shall see. BUT then it warms considerably. 😀

      1. That would represent a miserable Monday AM commute.

        .43 inches in about 6 hours. Not too bad, IF it happens. 😀

    1. Somewhat higher than the 0Z.
      Do you have totals for the 12/9 event only.

      You “should” be able to select a begin and end period for the map. 😀

    1. Thanks Hadi,

      Pretty much what I expected. Like 3-4 inches for Boston.

      Again, “should” it materialize. We shall see.

      AND MANY thanks for those graphics. I love them!!!!!

  49. From the looks of the Euro that at the end of 240hrs all but 1 state Florida will have snow on the ground. That’s pretty interesting..

    1. Not necessarily so.

      What it shows is that all but one state WILL HAVE received that
      snow during the 10 day period. Doesn’t mean that snow will be on
      the ground at the end of the period. 😀

  52. Not very accurate bc if you run at initialization it shows snow on the ground in places where there is no snow.

    1. Ace,

      Everything seems to be a screwed up with the comments. 18Z gfs to me looks like it gives SNE some ice later sunday night early monday..Anyone elses thoughts?

        1. The days for potential precip keep changing. It almost seems like precip will come in small batches and the models are having a hard time figuring out where and when. As Hadi said earlier today, totally confused about the days of the precip.

  54. 18Z GFS wants to give Boston something like 2-4 inches of snow and ice before
    the transition to plain rain.

    System still wants to be a Lakes Cutter with cold air hanging on for a bit in
    New England. 18Z GFS very similar to 12Z Euro.

    This is going to change for certain. Not saying we’ll get a snow storm, just that
    the models don’t know what to do. They’ll change in response to newly perceived
    conditions with each run.

    Could get more snow, could get less or even none or practically none. 😀 😀 😀

    Time will tell.

    1. Agree oldsalty. Not to keep saying it but a storm should never ever be discounted a week before whether its showing rain or snow this time of year.

    1. Excellent JJ. Very well put and it explains the situation very well.

      I’ve seen situations in the past where the cold just hung on MUCH longer
      than models and/or Mets predicted. We will just have to wait and see. 😀

  56. If it was January or February, I’d think I’d be more confident in a cold high to the north holding the fort (keeping the column cold enough) for some snow before a transition to rain on a storm tracking over or west of the region.

    However, its early December.

    There is no snowcover on the ground.

    While its a cold and dry airmass this weekend, its not a bitter one where the day before the event, the high is struggling to 20F.

    The ocean isn’t 37F or 38F, its 46F.

    With a light east or southeast wind, the immediate coast would be >35F early on in the event, only to rise with time.

    Could there be a slight burst of snow, followed by a touch of ice west and north of Boston ? Yes, I’d think thats realistic …………but even there, probably over to rain not too long into the event.

    1. Ahh, ye of little faith. 😀 😀

      I hear what you are saying, but not convinced you are correct.
      We shall see. 😀

  57. There was no snowcover if I remember ten years ago this December on the 6th and 7th in 2003 and there was quite a bit of snow across the region including in Boston which had one of their biggest snowfall totals for a December storm.

    1. Agreed. However, in that instance, a low tracked SE of New England and thus the N and NE winds were able to import cold air in, not necessarily dependent on snowcover.

      In this case, early next week, with a low track that is looking to go over New England or to its west, I think this particular scenario is depending on how long cold air can be held in the region, which I think is more dependent on snow cover.

  58. **ANNOUNCEMENT**

    The WBZ Accuweather Winter Preview Special (or whatever it’s called) will be rebroadcast Thursday at 7:00 pm on Ch. 4. assuming…

    1. No college football running over and/or postgame. 😉
    2. No catastrophic local or national event
    3. No “surprise” snowstorm, LOL 😀
    4. No Patriots “All-Access”

    Keep your fingers crossed…even weather TV specials are “fickle”. 😀

    1. Btw, I did see the last 10 minutes Saturday evening and Barry has one hillarious story about when he was a kid. I won’t give it away. 😀

      TK – Do YOU know the story by chance? 😉

  60. Just for fun I added up our Logan snow totals and it came up an average of 42.7″.

    I believe the average snowfall for Boston (Logan) is 43.7″ so we are in very much within normal range. 😀

    Since I have never done this before, I would be curious as to how close to the average either way we came in previous winters since TK started this blog.

      1. I don’t know if Tom would agree, by my bet is your “high” number had a lot to do with us coming so closer to average. 😉

    2. Philip. I have the numbers as long as I’ve been recording them. Is it three years….two? Remind me tomorrow to get the average. Kudos to you. Very clever idea. !!!!!

        1. Thanks vicki. I actually just got bold and went to the whdh website and found it. Thank you for posting the link. I wouldn’say he was calling for snow but rather was expressing a concern for the possibility and I concur.

  62. Elsburry soon to be Yankee pending physical exam, he is heading to New York. As I type to take it, seven year deal $ 157 million.

  63. Yankees are doing what they did the last time they missed the playoffs in 2008 spend like drunken sailors in the offseason.

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