Icy Wind

7:25AM

The cold air is in, the precipitation has flipped to snow but will not be the big story today. Untreated surfaces will be icy today, but a strong, gusty wind, and daytime temperature near 20 in much of the region will make it feel like the mid part of winter due to the lack of sun. Snow showers will continue as the storm pulls away and intensifies. Dry air returns tonight, which will continue to be windy and very cold.

A warm front approaches by later Friday with clouds returning and some spotty light precipitation at night. A cold front sweeps through the region early Saturday with a few rain showers, but the air behind it will not be that cold, so look for a nice afternoon. A second cold front will come through Saturday night and introduce colder air for Sunday.Ā  Still expecting storminess to evolve offshore early next week but may have to watch for another low pressure area around the middle of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Frequent snow showers this morning, diminishing this afternoon. Additional snow accumulation generally less than 1/2 inch. Temperatures steady around 20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing. Lows around 10. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs around 35. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with spotty light snow/freezing rain overnight and rain showers morning, then partly cloudy. Low 32. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 38.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Partly sunny. Low 18. High 34.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 20. High 33.

143 thoughts on “Icy Wind”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Light snow, perhaps 1.5 to 2 miles visibility in Marshfield.

    Roads hanging in there for now. We’ve had a couple sunny, 50+ days yesterday and yesterday was in the mid 50s for a few hours, I think that might be helping the pavement out a bit down here. Whereas, any pavement thats shaded by a tree is getting coated.

  2. Thanks TK..

    So, Did I get the Rogue Meteorologist correct? You never answered. šŸ˜†

    Just posted this on the other blog, so here goes again:

    Good morning, if we can call it that.

    Iā€™m the 3rd back up and had to open up the office at 7AM today.
    Spent 1/2 hour yesterday making certain I knew how to turn off the alarm
    properly. NFG! Still set off the alarm. Unfreakin believable. All is well now, I think.

    re: Weather
    Drive in was a piece of cake. What flash freeze? Everything is fine.
    As for snow, he he he šŸ˜† a heavy coating so far, perhaps 1/4 inch.
    Visibility is up there at 2, 2.5 miles or so. No big deal.

    Mark, your link for the Canadian snow map did not go. IF I may:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=132

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    About 30 mm or 1.14 inch qpf.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=SN&hi=000&hf=240&lang=en&map=na

    It has been consistent, however, the 0Z Euro does NOT have it. Does NOT.
    Reply

    1. šŸ˜ˆ JMA for Monday:

      http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif

      WOW!!!! Look at this!!! 06Z DGEX for Monday

      http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f120.gif

      http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f126.gif

      The precipitation on the DGEX maps is 6 hour totals!!!!!!
      AND it is depicted in hundreths of an inch. SO 150= 1.5 inches
      So, if that were ever to verify, that is about 2.5 inches of QPF for Boston
      over a 12 hour period. That would be WILDLY insane.

      I have been watching this DGEX model over the past couple of months.
      Seriously, it hasn’t been bad at all. I am NOT saying this is what is going to happen, but it is a CLEAR “WHAT IF” to be watched.

      So we have some indications now from:

      CMC
      DGEX
      JMA
      NAM

      AS Mark stated, GFS has something, but Way off shore.
      Same with EURO.

  3. To Tom’s point on the previous blog, please take a look at this Nexrad local radar.
    It seems to be intensifying. I watched for changing radar displays to explain it.
    Don’t see that. Looks like it is intensifying and Expanding.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=5&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

  4. 18.1 with wind in low numbers but gusting to mid-teens. Seems the flash freeze was either a non-event or the crews handled it well. Kudos to them for their hard work and glad for the commuters that it was not as bad as feared.

    It’s a great morning. Enjoy the last few days where you can stand outside and catch snowflakes on your tongue!!

  5. OS husband had to check on a test running at his office last Sunday. I went with him. He is usually first one to arrive in morning and open the doors so is used to the alarm system. But something didn’t work. Fortunately, he figured it out, but I was still afraid we would walk out the door to be surrounded by police. We have a house alarm system and I still hate them šŸ™‚

    1. I agree. Funny thing is, no matter HOW much I prepare for it. Sit down
      with the facilities guy. Doesn’t matter. When it comes time for me to
      Disarm the Alarm, it gets messed up. I’m in IT. I’m technical. I’m not stupid.
      Doesn’t matter. Still gets F’d up! AMAZING.

      BUT ALL IS WELL. Hopefully, a quiet day. Boss is at an all day meeting.

        1. Yes, because I am too damn lazy to convert everything
          I have on this baby. And I HATE Windows 7 and
          even hate Windows 8 more!!

          I am very very comfortable with my very very powerful
          XP machine. It does everything I need it to do.

          1. I have a more powerful XP machine than I do a Windows 7 but 7 has so many options for saving time (the way I use it) that my XP machine sits in a closet. That said, I am certain we use the machines in very different ways. It’s the ability to pin my frequently used programs to the task bar and also put files I currently use frequently in favorites, etc. that I like.

  6. Just was outside – kind of slick where they didn’t salt (walking on sidewalk – haven’t been out on roads yet). Cold w/a light to moderate snow – not much wind here in Sudbury; maybe an occasional gust. But it is kind of nice outside – gentle snow falling, cold and the sky has a grey wintry look to it – I actually enjoyed it – if it was Dec. or Jan.! And ‘though I am yearning for spring, weather is weather and as in the previous post where I think TK and Vicki said all weather is basically beautiful – I am a member of that club too! šŸ™‚

  7. SNOW is picking up here in Boston. Visibility down to about a mile or so.
    Looks nice out there.

    1. Yes, that was the main ingredient missing, plus not sure how fast the temperature crashed. I went to be near midnight and it was still only 38.
      Got up at 6 and it was all the way down to 24. Big deal. I don’t think the temp
      crashed fast enough either. So the 2 combined => NO FLASH FREEZE.

      1. I heard what sure sounded like sleet around 2:00 am but fell back to sleep so no idea how long it lasted or even if it did.

  8. Well an explanation for the SNOW, sort of from the NWS:

    BAND OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE /MAINLY UP TO H5/ AND WEAK LOW LVL
    LIFT IS ALLOWING SUSTAINED COMMA HEAD SNOWS/SLEET TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION.

    1. Here’s another JOKE from the NWS:

      US National Weather Service Boston MA
      March 13th, 8:30 am update

      Will see bursts of snow at times towards midday which will result in visibilities down to a half mile and light accumulations along area roadways of possibly a few tenths.

      1. a few tenths.

        Really? That will come in a few minutes. In fact it has already
        come. Get real!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. It just blew up out of nowhere. Looks like Providence is getting some very heavy snow right now. Still don’t expect most places will see more than an inch. Just flurries and snowshowers here in northern CT with a light coating.

  9. Been snowing moderate/heavy in methuen…. Students are all yelling about early dismissal again. I say about 2 inches here, with 2 1/2 coming since about 7 am
    Hope everyone has a good day

  10. March 13, 2014 at 7:06 AM

    http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3&region=us

    Why is the radar looking like its starting to fill in some ??

    Perhaps, on the water vapor loop, if one looks real hard, you can see the mini swirl in the upper levels approaching from eastern PA ??

    Interesting to see how well any precip today combats the lower level dry air.

    nowcasting ā€¦ā€¦ā€¦. and seeing this swirl capturing and staring to rotate in some of the wrap around precip ā€¦.. I wouldnt be surprised to see it snow lightly, but steadily the next few hours. Maybe that 1-2 inches is still a possibility

    I had written this, this morning, a couple minutes before the blog was updated.

  11. So far all on track. Seems like many ppl did not understand that the majority of the snow would be this morning; during daylight (not ppl on the blog just what I am hearing).

  12. OS, I am still leaning towards a miss Monday but think this system bears a bit more watching and attention than some have been giving it. It’s just something I could see sneaking up on us.

    It was not encouraging last night to see the Euro back off. So essentially we have the CMC/NAM/DGEX vs. GFS/Euro. Not liking our chances unless either the GFS or Euro jump on board. That said, we are dealing with another situation where the energy for the storm is still up near the Aleutians so models are going to take a few days to key in on a solution.

    1. I’d like to see the GFS and/or the Euro on board as well. It’s only Wednesday.
      Let’s see what happens. Many thanks for all of your contributions.

      1. No, thank you for your contributions! It’s always great to be able to check here for your model updates when I don’t have time to do so myself.

        And it’s Thursday by the way šŸ™‚

  13. I hope a non-weather rant is ok …

    My heart pours out to the families and friends of those aboard this missing airplane.

    I find the constant conflicting news and the passage of time in not finding this plane a humbling reminder of how good it is to live in the USA. Though its been well reported that finding this plane is like looking for a needle in a state the size of Pennsylvania, I have a hard time believing that our full technology and resources would not be further ahead in this process. It really gives me pause as to where other parts of the world sit, in what I thought, was a very modern 2014.

    1. Very true, Tom. The ineptitude on the part of the Malaysian authorities, but also the Chinese, is astounding.

    2. Every time I watch the reports, my heart sinks. I cannot imagine how the families and friends feel or how they are coping.

      1. Yes, Vicki, my heart sinks, too. Not having closure is awful. And hearing a continual barrage of conflicting reports makes it worse.

  14. There’ll be good skiing in Vermont, but also other parts of central and northern NE for at least another few weeks. With cool to cold temperatures most days, along with fresh powder and some more on the way, the skiing may actually be better this month than it was last.

  15. As long as we are off topic for a bit. Teen suicide is a huge problem and we need to do more to help.

    1. I’ll tell you part of the problem. Not always due to financial problems as sometimes egos are involved, but way too many families have both parents working with the children in Day Care. I don’t care what anyone says, that is NOT GOOD for the child.

      1. Sadly, with the paycheck buying power of the middle class decreasing steadily for three decades, it is darn near impossible for one parent to remain home. I have ideas…..I won’t share them here šŸ˜‰

      2. That’s true to an extent, but it all depends on the parents. In some of these situations, with both parents working, they are so caught up in their jobs and careers, that even when the kids come home from day care, they don’t bother with them. For me, both my parents worked cuz they had to. Neither made enough to just support me on their own. I was in daycare 5 days a week but the difference is, my parents couldn’t wait to get home to see me and gave me the attention and care that i needed when they were there. That to me is the difference. Its not so much about the daycare as it is about the parents IMO.

        1. Good point Ace.

          When I was growing up, Dads just working at
          the local factory could still afford the mortgage and
          support the family with Moms staying at home.

          Just not the case anymore.

          There are too many money grubbing corporations out
          there that won’t share a dime in profits with their
          employees. (Yes, I worked for one, so I know EXACTLY what was going on!) No one wants to pay a living wage. Very very sad state of affairs.

          1. Well now I see you shared some of my thoughts, OS. Isn’t it sad in the greatest country on earth that any person working a full time job does not necessarily make a living wage.

        2. I absolutely agree. I’ve always felt it should be an option for BOTH parents to work. The part that bothers me is that it is no longer an option for one parent not to. We have examples of working parents on this blog who are exceptional. Certainly not limited to one I see post incredible photos of things she does with her boys on FB, but I often wonder where Sue gets the energy. Somehow I remember I once had it too šŸ™‚

            1. Oh my – I see those pictures and hear about what you do – you should NEVER feel anything but proud.

      3. Unfortunately, as in my case, it isn’t always easy to survive on one income. My boys were both in daycare and if you ask me, it was one of the best things to happen to them. The daycare they attended was more like family and they learned so much while being there. It was evident when I brought them to kindergarten to see how well advanced they were both academically and socially. Not saying I wouldn’t have rathered stay home but attending day care certainly didn’t harm them.

        1. The socializing in daycare is one of the most important things we can do for our children. I have seen remarkable results with my too young ones. It is worth the extra mortgage payment a month. šŸ™‚

        2. I think there are far, far more parents like you and Coastal and all of the others who put 150% in each and every day to make sure at the end of that day they have quality time with their kids.

    2. I agree that all of the points made above are contributing factors. I think the most important thing that should be kept in the back of our mind is each child, each circumstance is different. Home life, Friends and family situations differ per child. A young women took her life yesterday when she got home from school. The contributing factor was parents with drug issues.

      Ace, it’s like Christmas Morning every time I come home from work. I love it. Also growing up my Dad worked days and my Mom worked nights.

      1. My Dad works my mom stays at home to help my brothers and myself with school and activites. with out her i would not get any where.
        My mom and dad were huge parts of my life, helping me through my struggles, sadly alot of kids do not have what i have had….

    1. Vicki, like I said earlier, I am yearning for spring. However, it really does look pretty out (maybe not for the drivers, perhaps) but at least this snowfall didn’t come when more buds and flora were out – not to say we couldn’t get snow in April. But I agree – it is pretty out.

  16. re: Monday’s NO?/Yes?/Maybe? Event

    12Z NAM at 84 hours or 8Pm Sunday night th2 16th, evening prior

    Surface

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    500MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    200 MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031312&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    Not liking those 200MB winds. Likely to shunt it off just to our South. We shall see.

  17. Boy…between the scrutiny on immigration and now day care, this may not be the blog for me. Hitting too close to home.

    1. Sorry, was not my intention and I understand fully that financially,
      it is often necessary. I was more venting towards the parents that
      could well afford to have one stay at home, but choose to both work
      to foster their careers, purchase that vacation home or boat etc etc…

      I was very fortunate in being able to well support the family on my income
      alone.

  18. We do everything we can to provide the best for our kids, but we both have to work to survive. I love the time with the kids as soon as I am home. Nothing has been better than daycare IMO. We have a Colombian family as the daycare and it was like they were their own kids.

  19. NAM simulated radar at 84 hours or 2PM Sunday looking rather ominous.

    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=232200

    No way that wouldn’t at least clip us if not be a direct hit like the DGEX is showing.

    NAM at 84 hours usually is fantasy, but it wasn’t half bad at this time range with the current storm. Very curious to see if the 12z GGEM holds serve or caves. More curious to see if any adjustments to the 12z GFS and Euro.

    1. Omnious, Indeed.

      Man, I still can’t believe that DGEX run. Unfortunately, the DGEX is run
      at 18Z and 06Z. 2 Strikes there.

      It is NOT a model of choice. It is a combo, hybrid type from the GFS and NAM, sort of like running the NAM out more than 84 hours.

      Here’s the detailed description of the DGEX:

      Summary: ā€œDGEXā€ is an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension. DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution ā€“ horizontally and vertically ā€“ forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections. It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions (LBC) from the previous cycle of the GFS. These LBCā€™s are applied at every 3 hours between 78 and 174 hr, and every 6 hours between 174 and 192 hrs. Although the process is started at 78 hrs to allow adjustment to the smaller grid, the first time step disseminated to the field is 90 hrs. DGEX is available on AWIPS beginning with OB3.3.

      DGEX is not intended to be a plug and play solution. Users still need to critique it like any other model and treat it as additional guidance. However, keep in mind that DGEX provides a dynamically downscaled solution that is ideally more realistic in character than the much coarser GFS. It offers forecasters the opportunity to populate their digital forecast grids with a more detailed model first guess than is available with the operational GFS.

      I’ve been watching it. It is NOT terrible.

      It is NOT out of the realm of possibility that it “could” be correct or nearly
      correct for Monday. We need to watch this one.

  20. On daycare, I think it’s a personal choice. And, as with almost everything there are advantages and disadvantages associated with choices we make for ourselves and for our children.

    I do want to say this: Society is evolving. Thankfully. The position and status of women, in particular, are changing. Women who choose to stay at home (or men for that matter) are just as worthy as women (or men) who choose not to stay at home to care for children. However, I think society has made progress on the equality front, with more women in the workforce and rising through the ranks. We’re not there yet in terms of equality, but the workforce is more representative than it used to be. I think this is a good thing. Not only for women. Also, for employers. I’ve worked in places that were very male-dominated, but also in less male-dominated environments. The less male-dominated environments have been better places to work. Not just for women, but also for me. The decision-making is more varied, creative, and outside the box. We need that as a society.

    I’ll give you all a prime example of why the world needs more women at the top: Vladimir Putin. He has surrounded himself with an exclusive club of alpha males. Little or no female influence there. Wars, land grabs, terrorism, you name it … most, ifnot all, started by men. Are we bad? No. And are all females peaceniks? Of course not. But, some of us males in places of power can be aggressive and one-tracked in a highly disruptive, counterproductive way.

    1. Too early to say for sure but it would be focused on late sunday night/Monday. Probably would be gone by your flight Tuesday AM.

    1. WOW!

      Only problem: It splits the energy into 2 pieces and sends a wave
      ENE depicted as grazing us with minor accumulations.

      BUT, then the Main event hangs back. Looks juicy. 500MB and 200MB
      show signs of some favorable turning/digging.

      I “think” it comes up here. Watching Watching Watching. šŸ˜†

  21. Wow, what a change in the GFS. Looking much more like NAM/DGEX/GGEM now. Still may be a sideswipe for us but that is a big step to take in one run.

    Perhaps it’s time to hail the Canadian as the new King??

    1. It comes a little too far off shore from North Carolina, so even though
      the 500MB and 200MB winds have REALLY dug and turned SW to NE, it
      “looks” like it want to sneak out “just” South and East of us. STILL
      a Major HUGE shift from previous runs.

      This system is IN PLAY!!!

  22. GFS is a decent hit for the mid atlantic and sideswipe for us south of the Pike. But a major step towards the solution of a closer track. Will be interesting to see if this is the start of a trend closer.

    1. 500MB Almost going Negative. Has Straight S to N wind field!
      200MB still SW winds, so it pushes the nice 500MB wind field off to
      the East some.

      Gonna be a miss on this run.

      We’ll see how it trends.

    1. Touche. GFS op run turned but i think it turned in the direction of its ensemble mean which has been further north with this storm all along.

      1. i know im saying that the gfs went to more of what euro was saying but the euro went to what the gfs was saying. (give and take a little bit)

        1. True. Euro was a lot closer yesterday, now backed off some. I expect it to come closer again

  23. 12z GGEM looking a bit more realistic this run. A bit further south but still a decent hit, especially CT, RI and SE MA.

  24. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/sd1_today.jpg
    Current snow map

    TK you were right again, you pointed out that south of Boston would get much snow or ice, and we didn’t, we received about a quarter of an inch or so. Using today to catch up on paperwork etc, heading out to Warwick/Providence Regency plaza tomorrow. After today’s super cold day, we r back to a mix of cool and mild weather, and I don’t see any meaningful snow. Winter snow is over. Now we just have to deal with New England’s Spring which typically is rain/cool/mild weather. Good day everyone!! Think Spring!! šŸ™‚

    1. GFS kind of does the same thing. Tries to send a second coastal up here on Wednesday but it just misses.

      Then follows that up with two more clipper light snow events later in the week, a rainstorm/cutter next week, and another coastal/snow event on 3/28. Interesting pattern.

  25. We are like under a snow block or something? Last storm was too far south, this storm was too far north, next one is going to be too far south. Ughh I hope the Euro trends north, I want one decent storm then ill be happy

    1. HOLD the presses. MY BAD!!!

      Model said current run was 12Z 3/13, individual panels only go to 24 hours
      for the 12Z run, then they show the 0Z Run. Have to watch that carefully!!!!
      They should have BLANK panels if not available. Should NOT show previous
      run panels. That is BAD operationally.

            1. First piece goes out South of us “just” barely grazing us with the extreme
              Northern fringe. 2nd and MORE potent
              system is hanging off of SC at hour 120.
              500MB MUCH more amplified than same
              period on the 0Z run, however, still destined to go OTS South of us.

              BUT, perhaps this is a positive TREND.

              We shall see.

              1. NO DICE with 2nd system either.
                MAN, is that one juiced up!!!
                Well, well, well ots well South of us.

  26. 12z Euro was farther north for Monday but still essentially a miss. Just coatings of snow for most of the region, especially south. It’s still something to watch though. I don’t think we’ll get into a big storm, but this far out you never know.

    1. Something to watch for sure. It’s really not that far out. Only 4 days away from monday. But this winter, 4 days can feature many radical changes and has felt like 10 days away. I think for sure there will be some kind of system(s), just how far north is the question

  27. This pattern will break and when it does its done for awhile. Winter is ending tough but its going to be over really soon.

    1. I would not pay him either, restructure or good bye, pretty straight forward. I won’t say anymore as this is a weather blog, don’t want to really discuss nfl football on a blog such as this. Go Patriots!!!

      Very cold today but sunny good day šŸ™‚

      1. He won’t get anywhere close to the money he thinks he’ll get in free agency. After that type of injury and the fact that nose tackles are a dying breed in the NFL, good luck to him. Me thinks the lady is pulling the strings on this one IMO

        1. Certainly after that injury, especially with a man that size, not WAY! He “may” not even come back. Look how
          long it took David Ortiz and he doesn’t have to do what
          Wilfork does.

          The man is dreaming.

          Good luck to him

  28. He probably wants to go to Denver. Heck Denver might even get Brady as a backup before the week is out.

  29. So today’s 12z runs seem to have found a middle ground with the storm tracking just offshore and grazing us. Real close call though as I have been saying. Wouldn’t take a huge shift at 4 days out to bring it closer. Best chances for any accumulating snow at this point look to be areas south of Pike.

  30. Down in Providence today. Charlie effect definitely held snow totals down as I hit the Attleboro exits. In Foxboro I could see a good inch or 2. By the time I got close to Charlie’s house it was down to less than half an inch. This said, Providence is just as cold as Boston, and spring is not right around the corner. On Saturdays it feels that way, but pretty much every other day of the week it’s a different story!

  31. Per the American weather forum:

    12z Canadian models are north of the operational.
    12z Euro ensembles are north of the operational and bring a probable advisory level snow to SNE.

    And in the FWIW category…
    JMA is north.
    SREF’s are north.

Comments are closed.