Marchuary

188 Comments

4:45PM

The January weather in March will continue through early Friday as intensifying low pressure moves away from New England and we’re left with a chunk of Arctic air. Strong winds will continue into the night as the sky clears, and air temperature will fall below 10 in many areas with wind chill values below zero. The air mass will moderate during Friday as high pressure slides south of New England and a warm front approaches from the west, bringing increasing clouds after a sunny start. This warm front may bring some showers of rain or freezing rain to the region Friday night as surface temperatures will be close to freezing but the air aloft will be too warm to support snow.  By Saturday morning, the warm front will have passed and the parent low passing north of New England will drag its cold front through, with a few rain showers around through the middle of the day. The remainder of the day will feature clearing and mild air, as the air behind that cold front is not really that cold. It will be a second cold front passing by later Saturday night that will introduce colder air but fair weather for Sunday.

St. Patrick’s Day 2014 will be cold and mainly cloudy. Will it snow?  That remains to be seen, as there is some conflicting information on whether or not a developing storm to the south will make it far enough north to deliver a shield of snow to southeastern New England. At the moment, my leaning is that this will stay offshore or just graze the South Coast. This storm, hit or miss, should be moving away by Tuesday which is expected to be a dry and cold day. The middle of next week is a little tricky but a quick educated guess removes the snow/mix threat previously mentioned for Wednesday, and puts the chance of rain/snow showers to Thursday – only an educated guess based on which guidance I think may have the better timing. Long way to go to refine the day 6 and 7 forecast.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 urban centers and South Coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH. Wind chill near to below zero at times.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs from the lower 30s hills NW of Boston to 40 Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain or freezing rain especially northern MA and southern NH late. Temperatures steady in the 30s, coolest far north and west of Boston. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 45-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix far south. Low  17. High 34.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 43.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 51.

188 thoughts on “Marchuary”

      1. I have never done that anywhere on the internet before, so I figure my first and only time would be an open net goal. 😛

        1. Well you are the owner and unopposed Overload of WHW…I guess you can do whatever the hell you want.

  2. 18z dgex slips system mostly to the south. Catch some snow but not all that much. No where near as strong as earlier depicted.

  3. 18z nam looks like it will also slide out south. 500mb winds well amplified but 200 mb winds are much more flat pushing the nicer winds along to the east. Still a watcher as it is really close.

    1. My inkling is that it’ll be a miss, but there is enough evidence to the contrary that I went with the South Coast scrape that far in advance.

  4. I have a feeling what happens with the Monday system will drive what happens with the midweek system i.e. a more amplified coastal storm on Monday will cause the next system to dig more yielding a colder, snowier solution while a flatter/OTS solution Monday with a less of a trough in the east would favor a quicker relaxation of the PV and a more northerly/rain track with the second system. Thus, we get two wintry events or nothing at all.

  5. Logan received 1.5″ of snow today…not bad considering. 😀

    Total Logan seasonal snowfall to date = 58.6″

  6. The CPC continues to show well below normal temps with well above normal precip.

    I guess technically the CPC is actually spot on but just cannot combine the cold with the moisture sources. 🙁

    Interesting though that storms seem to find a way up here when mild air is over us.
    😡

  7. 18z GFS still kept this mostly to our south. The south shift in the DGEX is also disappointing (although the 18z DGEX appears to hit us good with the storm a couple days after). On the bright side, the 12z FIM looked good as did the 18z NAVGEM. The ECMWF ensemble mean for Boston (and most of the region) on Monday was about 6″ of snow, so much more than the operational. It was real hit or miss though. Out of 50 members, about 10 really nail us with over a foot, which pulls up the mean, but many show little or nothing. (Weatherbell.com, which I subscribe to, has charts of individual member data). I think all data considered, TK’s forecast is probably spot on with a South Coast graze. But if it comes north, it could be a biggie, as some of those ECMWF ensemble members show.

  8. Great info wxwatcher! Thanks. Agree with the grazing approach for now but it wouldn’t take much to be a lot more. Next 24-36 hours will be very interesting to watch.

  10. The 18Z GFS is a real Bummer. Again Monday system split in 2 pieces. 1st is a graze on Monday, the next a day or 2 later pushed waaaay out well South of us. Mighty potent system at that,

    Then after 2 ots systems, well why not? A freakin LAKES CUTTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Give me a break. We can’t win for nothing, of course unless you’re sick of snow in which
    case you should be smiling!!!

    I’d much rather an ots job than a cutter. Cutters royally piss me off!

  12. DGEX is back at it. I know someone mentioned it, but I just had a chance to really
    Look. Monday system is a grazer, but this model has the upper winds amplify just
    enough to bring this monster close to DUMP on US!!! Tusday night/Wednesday AM.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/f126.gif

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/f132.gif

    Those are 6 hour precip totals. YIKES!!!

    That’s somewhere between 1.5 and 2.1 inches qpf. Fairly substantial I would say. 😈

  13. FWIW, the latest SREF is just about in range and looking very interesting, so far.
    We shall see. 😈

    1. Mark, nice map, not the totals, but the graphic.

      Did that come from DT or another site? OR do you have a link for that site?
      I’d love to have that link. Many thanks

  17. Well it’s nice to wake up and find that the Pats, so far, have decided to keep Brady and Gronk. 🙂

      2. He’s that big dude that plays tight end occasionally…
        Well when he’s not injured. 😈

  18. Morning.

    Don’t you just love model divergence.

    Euro says NO!!!!

    NAM says BONANZA!!!!

    Gfs says So so as does the CMC

    SREF says I’ll give ya some.

    Let’s start with the 06Z NAM:

    78 Hours

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031406&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=078

    81 hours

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031406&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=081

    84 Hours

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031406&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    Snow map at 84 hours with still more SNOW to come

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031406&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

  19. Good morning!!! Winter is over!!! I’m not saying this to piss any snow lovers off, but I really think winter is over snow wise. March will go down as another March with minimal snow. Busy day! Good day!! 🙂

        1. Sure, on the Calendar, but sensible weather might
          tell you that Winter is NOT yet over. 😆

        1. IDK, WeatherWiz, it seems to me that the maps not only show us what is happening weather-wise but also educate. They also set the stage for weather discussion based on facts.

  20. I don’t think the NAM solution will happen. I think its grazing with the bigger totals in the Mid Atlantic region but it would not take much of a shift north to bring the heavier snows up in SNE. The high maybe strong enough to keep the storm system south of us.

    1. JJ, I don’t know. I’d feel better IF the Euro were on board.
      But something is up. Maybe, just this one time, we will actually get it.

      GFS is certainly trending that way. The Euro has been OH so close for
      a couple of runs. AS you said, it wouldn’t take much to get it up here.

      There is potential for a rather large snow storm, but of course a grazing or OTS is absolutely on the table.

      It’s going to be an interesting couple of days for sure.

  21. From NWS out of Upton, NY. Hazardous weather outlook up to NYC Long Island area for the Sunday night Monday period.
    IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE 15/00Z FCST CYCLE TO BETTER SAMPLE
    THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM ENTERS THE U.S.
    RAOB NETWORK. THAT SAID…THE GENERAL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE
    FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER.

    1. 😈 :Twisted: 👿 👿 😆

      THE GENERAL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE
      FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER.`

      Ya think? he he he

  22. “looks” like Taunton is firmly in the EURO camp:

    GIVEN THE PHASING OF BOTH ARCTIC AND WRN CONUS ENERGY IS THE KEY TO THIS LOW PRES INITIALIZATION/TRACK AND MOISTURE…IT APPEARS THE WRN CONUS ENERGY WILL DOMINATE…DIGGING THE TROF FURTHER W AND PULLING IN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. HOWEVER AS IT SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IT WILL BE INTERACTING WITH STRONG CONFLUENT AND ZONAL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSITIVE NAO/AO REGIME ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE…IT LOOKS TO SHEAR OUT AS IT APPROACHES.

    Sounds pretty much like our last set up, except possibly arctic high is stronger, PV stronger. Sort of the Monkey wrench. That being said, Learning from last event, I think this system gets up into at least SNE as a pretty high ratio DUMPING of snow.
    This one CAN’T be an inside runner, but it can get up here at least.
    I’m probably dead wrong. Good thing I don’t have to forecast to the public.

    1. They are describing EXACTLY what the Euro is depicting on its forecast charts.
      😀 😀 😀

  23. Guessing chance of snow extreamly southeastern ma for Monday. Either way time is running out. I can’t believe how fast this month is going by.

  24. The key to getting this system is the relaxing/movement of the PV to the North and East
    allowing cyclonic curvature (amplification) of the upper level winds.

    Check this out courtesy of the NAM

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_057_850vor_500ht_200wd.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850vor_500ht_200wd&fhr=057&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140314+06+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=85

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_063_850vor_500ht_200wd.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850vor_500ht_200wd&fhr=063&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140314+06+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=85

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_069_850vor_500ht_200wd.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850vor_500ht_200wd&fhr=069&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140314+06+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=85

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_081_850vor_500ht_200wd.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850vor_500ht_200wd&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140314+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=85

    EURO does NOT see that happening and holds the PV more in place, thus shearing
    off the system shunting what’s left OTS.

  25. Happy Pi day ! (3/14) Middle School math recognition. 🙂

    If the pattern stays as it is, the April sun could get daytime temps into the 50s, but snow would still be a threat, because the air above is so chilly.

    I’m afraid snow is a possibility for many, many, many weeks. 🙁

    1. Thanks for pointing that out. I think I will drop some hints with my wife, the best pie baker I know.

      Just imagine next year: 3/14/15!

  26. JR had a good map this morning showing how the cold air has been steering the storms to our south. He thinks it may repeat on Monday.

    1. So How does the cold air keep the storm South?

      Is he really saying that the cold dense air will force the Storm South?
      OR is he saying the Polar Vortex in place that is providing the Cold air
      will force the storm South?

      If you look at the 500MB charts I posted above, it would clearly be the
      PV that would force it South IF it held it’s ground and didn’t move off.

      1. I’d love to tell you why he said it would but since I was half asleep and opened one eye to see the map, all I can report is what I said above. It’s the same thing I have also heard said here a few times in the past week or so. I’m thinking some of the mets are moving away from the term PV – for which I am grateful.

        1. This is what his blog says: “his chunk of arctic air may help us out as we will track a storm moving across the Ohio River valley over the weekend. This storm wants to come north into New England but the arctic air here will try & force the storm just south of us. As of now, I do think it will be a glancing blow on St. Patrick’s Day with patchy light snow/flurries south of the MA Pike and even some accumulating snow along the South Coast/Cape Cod on Monday. Stay tuned this weekend on that one.”

          1. Thanks Vicki. Thought so.

            Look at the upper air charts. It is Clearly the
            upper flow associated with the Polar Vortex (West to East Flow over New England) that “could” shunt a system OTS. NOT the cold air itself.

            This is what I was getting at.

            I think it is misleading to say the COLD air will
            keep the storm South.

  27. Outstanding article by David Epstein on the boston. Com website. He explains about the models and on the possible storm Monday. He really seems in my view to be a very good met. I have been following him all weekend. He also is an avid Gardner and even talks about that.

      2. Yes oldsalty I have been reading his forcasts all winter and he is accurate. He gives forcast for boston.com and he has growingwisdom.com. Thanks Vicki and oldsalty for posting as I thought it was a nice article.

      3. The sad part, OS, is that if he were to be on the air, he’d have to fit within the same constraints as the other media mets which makes me wonder if you’d be able to say the same about him. It’s a shame.

  28. Prior to the 12Z NAM coming out, let’s look at the Model Score Card:

    BIG HIT
    NAM
    DGEX

    LIGHT TO MODERATE STORM
    GFS
    CMC
    SREF
    NAVGEM
    JMA
    UKMET

    TOTAL MISS
    EURO
    FIM

    Hmmm 2 of the big 4 (EURO,GFS,CMC,FIM)
    TOTAL MISS
    2 of the big 4 LIGHT to MODERATE

    2 models big hit, 2 models total miss, 6 models light to moderate

    Very interesting indeed. Let’s see what the 12Z runs bring. 😈

  29. Jr in his blog said he thought snow and would be a graze. I’m going with no big storm but also grazing but more south towards cape.

    1. I’m with you, John. I’d love to see something change with these storms but it seems to be a pattern that isn’t going to be easily broken. I clearly do not have the expertise to say for certain. Just how it seems to me.

          1. The one earlier this week that was at first going to be a big snowstorm, ONLY to TRACK much farther North than originally thought, such that it rained.

            SO, if the thinking this one will be South and it tracks much farther North, BINGO, we get nailed.

            😈 👿 😈 👿

              1. I’m totally pissed off! Not at the weather, but I just found out that
                I have to go to a (*()!@#&*()*!@
                MEETING in a minute and it will last anywhere from 2 to 3.5 hours depending on who wants to listen to themselves speak.

                I CAN’T STAND MEETINGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                A COLLOSAL WASTE OF TIME!!!

  30. Has anyone made mention of the departing storm from the other day acting as a 50/50 low? I know that was a missing piece for the last storm and caused it to come further north. With that low still up there spinning could also be a cause for a further south track of the next system

  31. Regarding JR’s analysis of the “cold air” pushing the storm further south. If he explained it in correct terms, with mentioning the west to east flow along the base of the PV, i don’t think most viewers would even come close to comprehending. However, with his analysis being in a blog, i would think its the more informed people who would view the blog, so why not explain it in correct terms? Isn’t that the point of the blog, to expand on the details of the basic forecast? My feeling is, if they’re not gonna explain it correctly, why explain it at all.

    2. Ace…..whdh has literally fought allowing blogs with comments tooth and nail for years. I’ve had a lot of discussions with Pete about it. Part of the reason was the mess that is BZs blog. Perhaps they have fairly strict guidelines. Its tough to analyze when we don’t know the details.

  35. Slightly weather related funny story… As I was getting into my truck ford f 250 (which I plow with on school snow days) this am at 430. I stepped on my running board to get in, and apparently had realized I had ran over a Piece of frozen snow bank last storm, because it snapped and I landed flat on my back in a frozen slush puddle in my school driveway. Needless to say I was about ready to kick Mother Nature, but my legs were to frozen to move, and now I have been teaching all morning with soaking wet pants

    1. Sorry to hear about your frozen legs/wet pants… but thankfully you didn’t break your back! Ouch 😥

  38. SREF’s way north and crush us. Too bad they are useless, although I hear that model is getting an upgrade on 3/26.

    12z NAM is still a good hit, especially from Boston and the MassPike south where greater than 0.75″ QPF falls.

    GFS ensembles are all over the place. Solutions range from monster hit to nothing. Some of the members want to blow up the first storm Monday while others like the second.

  40. :Re TK’s comment above about winter not being over, the Euro weeklies look continued cold well into April.

  42. 12z GFS = Miss

    Robust storm but PV way too strong – just squashes the system and shreds it out to sea to the south of us. 850 mb -20C line down almost into Boston on Sunday. That is some cold, dry air.

  43. Based on the 12z runs so far (and I would expect the Euro to come in no differently), graze or miss still seems to be an appropriate forecast. What a waste of cold air – again.

  45. Can’t we just have one storm where there is consistency a few days before. I can’t think of any this winter like that. Really quite bizarre

  47. And amazingly, as strong and as far south as the GFS has the PV on Monday, it still manages to relax it big time in a 36 hour period so as to allow the next system mid week to be a cutter into southern Quebec. I am still a bit skeptical of this.

    OS, can I get some devil faces??

  48. Time Kelley Tweet

    @SurfSkiWxMan: Not that you asked, but imo, a deeper, slower solution to E coast trof Saint Patrick’s Day & Beyond, may produce snow > Mississippi to Maine

  49. I’ve got the PV Blues…….

    We KNOW how the Euro will come in soon. No doubt about it.
    Very very disappointed in the NAM, as the 12Z run was the first time that
    it, too, is caving into the PV Influence. Next run will just be a graze or a total
    miss.

    I think Mark’s comment is correct. STICK A FORK IN IT!!! Yes I know it is still
    early, but not that early. It is Friday for a Sunday Night/Monday event. Soon enough.
    FORK TIME!!!

    😈 😈 😈 👿 👿 👿

        1. If you follow that along frame by frame you will see
          that it is the energy NWS was discussing or at least
          it looked that way to me.

    1. Yeah, “crushes” not the best wording but it’s more of a direct hit on that model and those 12 hour SREF snow totals always look light compared to the other models.

    2. Yeah, “crushes” not the best wording but it’s more of a direct hit on that model and those 12 hour SREF snow totals always look light compared to the other models.

    1. Yes, even I’m tired of the persistent cold. However, the rest of the month doesn’t look promising as far as any real spring-like weather. I’m afraid we’re in an entrenched pattern. Sure, it’ll warm up a bit, but beware of cut-off low season, which will soon be upon us. I think this spring will be as dismal as any in recent memory, especially if NAO turns negative.

  53. OS I wouldn’t stick a fork in it just quite yet. There still some time for wobbles. I find it amazing that the storm before last trended south, south, south….followed by the storm yesterday which trended north, north, north…the only trend I can identify here is NO SNOW in SNE 🙁

    1. True, EXCEPT I said the same thing on the last storm when I said it
      was a LOCK for a NORTH track. Everyone said too early.

      I don’t believe it is TOO early. The SNOW Gods made their final
      decision with the 12Z RUNS. => NO SNOW. 😆 😆 😆

      This season has been a complete TRAIN WRECK with model solutions!
      👿

  54. Two comments:

    1. Not buying the pacific energy is not ashore yet argument on this one. We are 2.5 hours away and it’s close enough that models have gotten a better handle on it.

    2. Tim Kelley is smoking something and it must be very potent.

    1. For the same time period, it is actually a bot Farther South than on the 0Z run.

      BUT, we absolutely, positively KNEW it would be like this.

  57. OS has reverted to reverse psychology with these systems – dare I say, solid footing in Camp Charlie (with all due respect to both of you).

    That said.. would love one more foot plus event in MA/SNE prior to closing the books on this winter.

    3. Are you Sure? I Just call it as I see it.

      I have to tell you, I was encouraged this morning, that’s for sure, however,
      I was worried that both the Euro and the Fim were NOT on board.

      So, this is NOT going to happen with this system. We’ll have to wait for the next one, IF there is a next one.

      1. Just having fun, enjoy your posts as always. Though, you are a bit quicker on the trigger lately to write off systems – not that this winter has not given any reason to do otherwise.

        1. Admittedly, I have been faster with the trigger finger.
          Perhaps I am able to deal with reality better now?
          Perhaps I am getting better at reading the maps/conditions?
          Perhaps I am adjusting to the trends this Winter?
          ?????????????????????????????????????????

          1. Perhaps all of the above.

            Would love to see a reversal in the trend.

            No harm intended OS, I scan for your posts/maps first if I am looking for the latest read on a system and love your enthusiasm whether the storm hits or misses.

            1. Never took anything that way at all.

              Great blog whether ones loves snow or not.

              I have to admit, I’m growing tired of the COLD. I’ll always take and enjoy a snow storm, but even for me there comes a time when I am ready for Spring.

              So I will say again, IF it is going to be cold, bring on the snow. IF no snow, then WARM it the bleep up!!! 😆

              That’s what is making the last and this upcoming storm so extremely frustrating. We have the cold in place, to NO avail. Either an coastal hugger and RAIN or an OTS job. Either way, not snow. AND after this OTS, we get insulted with a Lakes Cutter.

              We miss the snow every which way!!!

    4. I would not rule out a hit in late March or early April , especially if there is a sharp contrast in temps in the right place with a decent piece of energy to work with.

  60. 18Z NAM is just about done. Some comments:

    PV Holds Strong!!!!

    It is Shunting that system South. It still brings “some” snow to “about” the NH border.
    Heavier stuff off to the South. Will post snow maps in a bit.

    For now, look at 500MB chart at 45 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031418&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=045

    That’s Brutal

    Now look at 66 hours. It “tries” to lift a bit:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031418&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=066

    But wait a minute, what do we have a 200MB? have a look a this BRUTAL CRAP!!!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031418&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=066

    Don’t get a big snow storm with that configuration, you get the Northern
    fringe effects at best.

    1. Suppressed MORE than the 12Z run, but frankly not as much as I expected.
      I guess the NAM will go in stages and will show a complete miss on the 0Z run.
      😆

  62. Look what we have hanging back:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031418&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031418&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    Can we get some amplification?

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031418&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    200MB looking much better. Still not likely to get up here, but one has to wonder.

    That’s some pretty potent upper level energy.

    I wonder what the DGEX will do with this? Should be out in about 15 min.

    1. Agreed. It’s FORK TIME!!!

      AND same to the whatever system and energy is left behind.

      And then the PV did such a great job pushing those systems out, it relaxes and
      ALLOWS a Lakes Cutter to pass by.

      Pretty PATHETIC!!! 👿 👿 😈

    1. I know. We can say that where in a pattern here but I don’t care about what’s going on winter is on its way out as we all know that.

  67. I think its slim and none the storm tracks further north and slim has left town. Maybe just one time there will be a nice surprise on the 0z 12z runs but I think I have a better chance of seeing the sun come out tomorrow than that happening.

  69. John if it was not for the polar vortex and a couple of these storm systems that missed us were able to make the turn to come up the coast I think we would have come close to the 80 inches you predicted before winter started.

  71. That usually means good snow. That was part of my forcast this year but that did not pan out, I think I did well. I predicted the storms before winter 12/21, predicted the extreamly cold winter but just fell short with the snow totals. Could we get more sure can but I’m skeptical of that now.

  72. Good evening everyone!! I may be relentless, and i may have to think again according to os 🙂 but I’ll say it again, winter is over snow wise. All the snow lovers can hate me, but I feel with confidence March will have very little if any snow. Great night everyone! Busy days ahead!!! 🙂

    1. Since you are going to be so busy and like to remind the readers the winter is over, if you want I can just copy/paste this message daily for the next couple weeks so you can concentrate on your work. 😉

      😀

      1. I will only remind people winter is over if they keep trying to remind me there is a slight chance that there is a snow event, if a few days from now it still looks like I may say it again, the only reason why people would be mad is bc it’s true. Again tk not trying to piss anyone off. I love the sunny weather, good day , and thank u 🙂

        1. I love sunny weather too. And so do many of the winter weather fans. It’s not all or nothing for these people. 🙂

          Myself, I’ll remind you, I am a fan of all weather. My statement about winter not being over is based on overall climatology and current pattern.

          Of course we’re not going to have any more long-lasting snowcover (other than the areas that still have several inches and are in slow-to-melt locations). But as a responsible forecaster I cannot sit here and declare winter over, snow-wise, on March 15.

          While it is true that 2 out of the last 3 years we had little or no snow in March, that is not the normal. And the weather pattern we are in, though not bringing a storm such as Monday’s threat up here and sending the last one too far north to do much other than 1-3 inches at the end (which was still a snow event in part), still is conducive to snow threats, any of which can materialize for a particular region. You can thank the PV for the Monday miss, but that same PV has also been responsible for several moderate snow to even major snow events during the course of this long winter, which is not quite finished with us here in SNE. 🙂

          For your sake, I sure hope the weather favors your outdoor business, all kidding aside I do wish you and anyone in the business well. Mother Nature may still have other plans and it’s too early to turn your back on winter. 🙂

  74. The CPC continues to show well below normal temps and well above normal precip for the forseeable future and the temps are for the most part spot on with the exception of a day or two here and there but SNE hasn’t really seen all that much precip lately.

    TK – Why hasn’t the CPC caught on by now that storms are now consistently missing SNE?

    1. There have been enough events and enough action reasonably close to the region and also occurring there in the medium range forecast that they probably feel the need to keep the precipitation forecast up a bit. I think these forecast are probably based on what the maximum potential is more than a sensible forecast.

  75. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The blue color of sky is primarily caused by:
    A. Salt
    B. Water vapor
    C. Oxygen and nitrogen
    D. Dust particles

    Answer later today.

    3. Even though C seems like the likely answer, I’m still going with B ❓
      My final answer is B. Water vapor

    4. Without cheating, I will take a stab, but NONE of the answers are what I expected. It’s not salt. If it were due to gases it would be 1 or the other, not both, so I don’t think it is ‘C’ (probably is :lol:).

      I know the light is refracted and ends up in the blue spectrum, but why?

      I still don’t like any of the answers.

      I’ll go with ‘B’ water vapor.

      2. OS. I agree. It took a while because none of the answers are really representative of what I remember reading. I tried deductive reasoning based on what I have read…….we will see well that worked and probably didnt 😉

  76. Just for the fun of it. Accuweather’s forecast from March 15th to April 28th has 0 days at 60 degrees or above.

  77. Temp is 40.1 degrees, cloudy and rain, heading to the Walpole 5k. Have a good day everyone 🙂

  78. TK or anyone ….

    Weather question related to missing plane story ..,.

    In the latitude of either direction, north or south, what are the jet stream winds like in that part of the world ? Would the plane have been getting a tail wind ( and have possibly been able to fly a longer distance ) or would it have been fighting the jet stream ?

    1. Not a whole lot of wind down there near the Equator and in the region north of it that the plane was flying. Probably not a major factor.

    2. Tom I can’t seem to get the missing plane out of my thoughts. I just can’t imagine what the family/friends are going through. My SIL who is the flight attendant (since 1969) and has flown mostly international flights discounted reports about entertaining in the cockpit. She said it is not unusual. She has said for some time the 777 is her favorite plane. Her first thought was someone on the ground or in the air hacked the computer system. At the time it sounded far fetched to me but she has much more knowledge than I. I found this I the NYT yesterday and thought it was a good discussion.

      http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-military-radar.html?hp&_r=1

Comments are closed.