Boundary Line

3:28AM

SUMMARY…
The boundary line between Spring warmth and Spring chill is located just south of New England and will wave around there through Thursday. A disturbance will move along this boundary from west to east Wednesday night and early Thursday while high pressure tries to push down from the north as well, supplying cold air. In mid Winter, this would be a set-up for a light to moderate snow event. At this time of year, it will be an event of rain, mix, and some snow, depending on where you are. It’s a little iffy getting these zones just right, but it looks like most of the precipitation will be Wednesday night and in the form of snow/sleet in southern NH, sleet and rain in northern MA with some snow possible, and mostly rain in southern MA and RI with some sleet possible. Another disturbance and a northward push of the boundary later Thursday through early Friday will end up as rain with warmer air moving in aloft. Finally on Friday, southeastern New England should end up on the warmer side of the boundary, but still with lots of clouds and a rain shower threat as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will push through the region early Saturday and we will see a transition to slightly cooler, drier air during Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday and moves off to the east Monday with fair and generally mild weather, but watch for the ocean’s influence keeping coastal areas somewhat cooler. High pressure will try to hang on Tuesday but we’ll also have to watch another disturbance advancing in from the west.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain/sleet/snow afternoon. Highs 40-45 north, 45-50 south. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Mix to snow/sleet southern NH with 1/2 to 2 inches accumulation, rain to sleet and some snow northern MA with coatings likely, rain mixed with sleet southern MA/RI with no accumulation expected. Lows 32-40, coldest to the north of Boston. Wind NE 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light mix north and rain south. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures rising slowly through the 40s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle mainly northern MA and southern NH early. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon from northwest to southeast. Highs in the 50s to near 60. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered rain showers early. Low 45. High 55.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 60, cooler some coastal areas.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 55 coastal areas to 65 inland.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 60, cooler some coastal areas.

187 thoughts on “Boundary Line”

  1. Thank you TK. Nice forecast. Looks pretty darn good.

    Re: later today

    Models keeping wavering. I guess that is to be expected.

    Now not expecting much for Boston.

  2. HRRR reflectivity for 23Z today or 7PM.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015040808/t3/cref_t3sfc_f15.png

    925mb temperatures at 7PM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015040808/t3/temp_t3925_f15.png

    850mb temperatures at 7PM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015040808/t3/temp_t3850_f15.png

    700mb temperatures at 7PM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015040808/t3/temp_t3700_f15.png

    This is the HRRR and sometimes it is dead on and sometimes it doesn’t have a clue.
    So what is it today? I dunno.

    I post for your viewing pleasure.

    As depicted this would most likely indicate snow. Will continue to monitor the HRRR
    as it appears COLDER than the other guidance.

    0Z Euro was COLD for awhile as well.

    NAM,GFS,CMC and RGEM all indicate little to no snow/sleet, so we shall see what’s up.

        1. It’s right in your link:

          A watershed is an area of land that drains to a river, lake, or ocean.

          So a watershed is way more than just the actual
          river or stream.

          1. I just finished reading it, OS. And I suspect that is why I thought it was Charles River. I seem to recall a sign along that area that says Charles River Watershed. I just didn’t know the definition. But then since that area does connect to the Charles, is it due to the Charles that it backs up and floods?

            1. Probably that plus excess water in the
              swampy areas and other sources like
              brooks and small streams. Just my guess.

  3. Good morning!! Little chilly 35.5 degrees, lots of Fertilizations in Quincy/Hingham today. Looking like a beautiful weekend with temps in the 60’s 🙂
    Thanks Tk 🙂

      1. Agree on Saturday.

        Also as mentioned the other day, the pattern is evolving, but the closer you are to coast the more likely cooler, along with some gray and raw conditions will be more prevalent.

        Stand by my thoughts that widespread accumulating snowfall is not forecast for the areas where most people live in SNE. Areas above 600-800 feet have the best chance of very light snowfall accumulation on grass and other cold surfaces.

  4. Good morning again…

    Can’t help but notice the Blue Sky and Abundant Bonus Sunshine.

    What does this mean?

    To me it means that the COLD Arctic High has pushed farther South and West than
    expected. With sunshine, we get into the 40s today, but it probably also has
    allowed COLDER air aloft to move in setting the stage for the precipitation
    this evening. Snow? Sleet? Mix? We shall see.

  5. Latest HRRR HRRR Model Fields – Experimental
    Model: HRRR-NCEP (Operational) Area: NE Date: 08 Apr 2015 – 10Z

    925 mb Temperatures 01 Z or 9PM tonight

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015040810/t3/temp_t3925_f15.png

    850mb Temperatures

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015040810/t3/temp_t3850_f15.png

    Reflectivity

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015040810/t3/cref_t3sfc_f15.png

    Tells me it should be coming down pretty good. From “about” the MA/CT, MA/RI Border Northward likely SNOW and South of there SLEET as evidenced by
    the 925 MB temperatures.

    I’d like to see the 12Z NAM for comparison.

    I just don’t know if the HRRR can be trusted.

    IF and I do emphasize IF, it is correct and it verifies, it will be a MIGHTY
    interesting evening.

    HRRR shows COLD holding TOUGH.

  6. The abundant sunshine this morning comes to know surprise as this was expected. The cooler pool of air has settled in which will lead to diurnal cloud cover and eventually lead to precipitation. The greater Boston area still appears to be mostly rain with some sleet mixed in at times. No accumulation is expected until you reach the Southern NH border where a coating to an inch is possible. More seasonal warmth is on the way.

    1. Expected by whom? Nobody had it. But a nice bonus. 🙂

      The clouds moving in today are not diurnal. They are directly associated with the disturbance from the west. Eventually will bring ocean stratus back layer too when the lower layers moisten enough.

      1. Arod is right. Pete made mention of it last night is his evening post whdh. Com weather. Cold rain on tap tonight for the boston area.

        1. “This is a good thing if you’re looking forward to waking up to sunshine tomorrow – mainly across Northern Mass/Southern NH, but also possible down to Boston and over to Worcester. “

  7. Well I’m Not surprised. 12Z NAM NOT even Close to the HRRR.
    NAM barely gets 850mb 0C line to Boston, perhaps a tad South, but very briefly.
    Some Sleet with NAM, but little if any snow.

    So what is the HRRR smoking? OR is the HRRR onto something and a surprise?

    Only time will tell. 😀

    1. Was raining on us off and on all afternoon, we did see a few sleet pellets bounce off the windshield but it was 90% rain. Friday begins the pattern change 🙂

    1. Well done. He makes points that we have discussed here but should be noted. The only issue I have is the global temp chart is off a little because just before 1980 and after 1980 the rate change was impacted by budget cuts and minor observing site reduction in the US and a huge drop out of Siberian observation sites. But overall, excellent.

    2. Sue, I looked quickly and will read in depth later. Thank you. I’ve said before that I enjoy Eric’s views. He also puts tremendous work into graphics,etc. Very nice.

  8. TK,

    How is Sunday and Monday looking? Are we going to get a seabreeze in here for those days to cool off the coast? I’m just hoping for some warmer weather..

    1. Sunday should have a land breeze but a cold start. I’m a little worried about SE flow Monday versus what would be warmer SW. The key will be orientation of high pressure.

  9. TJ were all hoping for a turn to warmer weather. I love snow but even I am ready for warmer weather.
    Looking at 6z GFS for the east coast on Friday. You could tell where the stable air is and were the unstable air is that COULD fuel some thunderstorm activity. Thankfully were in the stable air but areas southern NJ south COULD be looking at some thunderstorms as there is enough CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and Lift for them.

  10. Does anyone here use SAP at work? My company is going live with it next month and all employees are starting training. Just attended my first training and so far not impressed.

    1. Many moons ago when I was a management consultant I worked with an SAP financial accounting system. But, that was back in the early 90s. Compared to the `shoebox’ method that was often being used back then by companies, the automated SAP financial accounting system was great. I have no idea what SAP products look like today.

    1. I absolutely BELIEVE that. See my post below.
      DOES this mean HRRR might actually verify??????
      Forecasts called for RAIN mixed with SLEET in our area.

      1. LOL, no not yet, golf league starts in 3 weeks. I’m waiting for my car to be serviced (would rather be golfing though, even in this weather)

    1. Precipitation is now moving in.

      Snow as far South as Northern Connecticut.

      I’m guessing that shortly after the rain commences it mixes and then changes
      to Snow. Perhaps even quicker near the coast due to the COLD ocean.

      Boston 1PM temp = 38 Degrees. Won’t take much with COLD aloft
      to flip anything over to SNOW.

      1. If I had it my way, the “penalty phase” would be a short walk to the gallows this afternoon.

        1. I’m not a fan of capital punishment and believe that would give him exactly what he wants….to die a martyr. I’d rather see him spend his life in prison. It will not be a nice existence.

          1. He is a prime example of why this state needs it. And another example is that punk who shot the cop . These are called vicious animals and they should be brought down. Just my two cents.

          2. I’m with you Vicki, surprise surprise.

            I know this sounds cruel and I really shouldn’t say it. But IF we can put him to death, then why not
            amputate both of his legs and have him suffer in prison for the rest of his life.

            1. Noting here that I believe we have the best judicial system in the world. I have complete faith in and support of whatever the jury decides.

                1. The reason it costs more actually makes sense and fits with the morals of this country IMHO

  11. here it comes

    Eric Fisher retweeted
    DynastyDriven ‏@DynastyDriven 6m6 minutes ago
    @ericfisher Snowing in Brookline on April 8th. Unfreakingreal

    1. Graupel (German pronunciation: [ˈɡʁaʊpəl]; English /ˈɡraʊpəl/, also called soft hail or snow pellets) is precipitation that forms when supercooled droplets of water are collected and freeze on a falling snowflake, forming a 2–5 mm (0.079–0.197 in) ball of rime.

      1. Sounds accurate – that is what was falling on me 🙂 Graupel drops are falling on my head….

        oh, sorry, went off on another tangent for a second

        1. How did you know that BJ Thomas almost did THAT song but the record company changed it at the last minute. 😉

    1. But will not accumulate. I responded to your post above about how “no one had it.” Actually as Pete and Vicki pointed out…NOT TRUE 😀

        1. Actually vicki pointed out pete said POSSIBLE. Which does not make it expected…it makes it a surprise……but then we all know there is difficulty with words such as potential and possible eh? 😉

  12. HRRR Model Fields – Experimental
    Model: HRRR-NCEP (Operational) Area: NE Date: 08 Apr 2015 – 16Z

    Total Snowfall as of 3AM. Still going strong at this point with Sleet/Snow line
    just about to Boston with extensive SLEET to the South of the City.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015040816/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png

    I’ve been monitoring the HRRR since 6:30 AM this morning.

    It has NOT budged on depicting SNOW for Boston and much SLEET to the South

    So what’s up.

    Not one single comment from anyone to whether or not the HRRR
    is full of CRAP or onto something.

    1. Retrac, this has 4-6 inches for your area. Of course NOT on the roads, but
      certainly would add to totals in your back yard. 😀

      1. Yeah. Thanks for the updates today OS. Been watching. I could see a couple of inches tonight being possible. Will report in after the drive home.

  13. I saw both Harvey and Pete and neither one went for “abundant sunshine”. Sorry.

      1. I’ll make sure I clear any forecasts I make with Pete before posting them. 🙂

  14. No kidding ???? with the reports of snow ………… I thought someone was joking until I saw a few more reports and saw a radar.

    Wow, it only recently turned cloudy here. I’ve been very busy with MCAS and course recommendations, so I was kind of lost as to what is happening outside.

  15. Looks like a little light mix of snow and sleet here. It’s just too light to know for certain. 😀

    1. It’s snowing near the big buildings. My wife is looking out the window at it right now.

      Steadier snow here now, mixing with sleet at times. And yes, it is indeed accumulating a little bit on car tops upon Woods Hill in Woburn.

        1. I don’t expect any accumulation in Boston. Just coatings of under 1 inch in northern MA and around 1 inch to locally 2 or 3 in southern NH (most will be less).

          No surprises going on.

  16. Snowing at a light clip in Andover with moderate size flakes. Just starting to stick on grassy surfaces. Temp at 37 with a 27DP. Been reading off and on. OS, I love the the posts and maps. When I see old salty, I know it’s a great read so keep posting. Starting to think there may be some surprises. Mostly in hilly terrain though! Will come down hard at the coast but just a degree or two too warm to accumulate. Maybe an inch in NE MA . Enjoy all!

  17. I wonder whats going to become of the moderate batch of precip in upper western NY State and will the column remain cool enough locally for frozen ?

  18. HRRR Model Fields – Experimental
    Model: HRRR-NCEP (Operational) Area: NE Date: 08 Apr 2015 – 18Z

    Snow fall as of 5AM, Creeping Northward as HRRR finally gets a clue to what is really going on.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015040818/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png

    850mb

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015040818/t3/temp_t3850_f15.png

    925 mb

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015040818/t3/temp_t3925_f15.png

    This could keep the sleet going virtually ALL night long.

    This temperature profile “should” Yield snow most of the night, so where is
    the Warm Layer. I “think” Tom has provided that with the Mt. Washington Obs
    of 30 degrees. Makes me think that the warm layer is above 850 mb and below
    700 mb or somewhere between 5,500 feet and 8,000 feet. With the warmth
    at that layer, the 925 and 850 mb temperatures “should” allow sleet to continue.
    We shall see. Of course the HRRR might not be portraying these temperatures
    correctly, so who knows.

  19. What! No way 71 Monday in the city. I’ve got sox tix. Can’t be that lucky and a SE will bring 48degrees wedge from 128 to Lowell.

  20. No diurnal clouds today. It should come as no surprise as they were not expected. Also the clouds and precipitation from the disturbance from the west did arrive as expected.

    The stratus are returning from the ocean on a NE wind. Mentioned earlier today that this would occur.

    Be safe all. I’ll be offline for a while this eve. Check in later.

  21. Looks like the HRRR was full of shit. Not an uncommon occurrence
    this past Winter Season. Most Stations are reporting plain ole Rain, except for
    Worcester which is reporting freezing rain. That means the cold layer is much more
    shallow than has depicted all day long by the HRRR. But we pretty much knew
    that. I was kind of hoping the HRRR would verify, while knowing full well it was
    likely NOT to verify. Oh well. It was fun watching.

    Sounds like rain outside of my window now. heading out. 😀

  22. 34 my truck temp. Still snowing light with some sleet mix in Andover. Very light coating on grass. Sticking to the trees some now.

  23. Late tonight/overnight will absolutely be the last opportunity for any additional snow/sleet for Logan…otherwise the final total 2014-15 snowfall will stand at 110.6″.

    And to think when I originally predicted 46.8″ I was concerned my total was going to end up being a bit too high, lol. At this extreme early stage I am already considering a low number for next winter…but let’s get through HHH for this upcoming summer first…UGH!

    1. I always talk myself too low and am eliminated by January.

      Not next winter !

      150 inches …… 🙂 🙂

  24. The last 10 days in east central Canada were frigid.

    Most of those 10 days, Churchill never got to 0F.

    That airmass is in retreat now and a small piece has broken off and edged into New England helping to cause the mix of rain, ice pellets and snow flakes we are currently seeing.

    In its place, warmer air is moving back into central Canada. Its back to 36F in Churchill.

  25. Now 33 yard thermometer DP @30. Very light rain. Just amazing how the colder it gets with lighter precip that it goes to rain.TK and Mets out there, I wouldn’t want your job! That’s why I work on aircraft! (Lol) Great job on this blog and very much enjoy it!!

  26. Next winter easy prediction. Less snow than this winter in Boston. If the law of averages works out I would say next winter mother nature will be a lot kinder to us.

  27. Was raining on us off and on all afternoon, we did see a few sleet pellets bounce off the windshield but it was 90% rain. Friday begins the pattern change 🙂

  28. I wonder if the heavier precip that is approaching ….. if it maintains its intensity, will it help to encourage more frozen precip.

    I know when the most of the column is cold enough, but maybe the boundary layer is mild, that precip intensity can assist with cooling the boundary layer and we see snow.

    I don’t know if precip intensity works if only a middle layer of the column is cold. I think that’s the case tonight.

    1. Next batch of precip means business.
      Unless there was an infusion of
      Colder air behind batch 1 I dont
      See how it would be frozen.
      We will know soon.

  29. Mobile thid evening in canton.
    Rain has stopped here.

    On another note. Jamaica pond is now
    50% ice free.

    1. Probably an illision but in the middle
      Of that I swear I saw a whale or submarine.
      Must have been like black ice.

      1. Thanks for sharing, OS!!! I’ve seen this before, but still in awe watching such an amazing event! I know what you mean about a whale, thought the same. So real that it almost looks like an eye is showing on it. If not, then a very cool illusion.

  30. No accumulating snow in Westwood as expected and warm weather looks to finally make a run at us as early as Friday and moderating into next week. Nothing surprising here. I look forward to those warmer temps 😀

  31. Much further north, the column is cold enough.

    Moderate snow reported in Burlington and Montpelier, VT.

      1. That might be interesting.

        We had quite a sleet shower around 6pm when some heavy precip came through.

  32. Looking at the webcam at exit 15, I believe it is, in Concord, NH and everything is covered in snow up in central NH.

  33. Radar says it’s snowing here. NOPE it’s RAIN with perhaps a very occasional ice pellet.

  34. As WxWatcher said it’s snowing in NH. In fact, accumulating snow just over the border. I believe several towns in Massachusetts will have a few inches by the time this is done. And yes, even the winter enthusiast in me knows that this is our last realistic chance at snow. I will miss the snow and cold. Not the 30s and rain stuff, but the real winter cold and snow. It’s been a great run. I’m hoping for a repeat performance next year.

  35. I look at the radar and it appears it should be snow and sleet here in North Reading, but I can tell you for a fact it is 34 degrees with moderate rain.

    1. It’s snowing just to your north, in places like Haverhill, Pelham NH, but also further northeast in Salisbury MA. Temps are marginal, but my guess is there’s definitely accumulating snow in these towns.

  36. Sox game was a disappointment. Sox lost A TON of close games last year, with defensive lapses and a no-show offense. Tonight looked a lot like last year. I know this team is different and we’re only 2 games in. But, it’s important the team shows consistency early this year. 8-0 victories never impress me, just as 8-0 losses don’t either. It’s the close games that ultimately show whether a team is good or not. 2013 is a case in point. That team was phenomenal in close games.

  37. Driving home from Cambridge to Groveland (yes long night) rain started to Change to sleet around Topsfield and Snow around Georgetown. Straight snow in Groveland with thin coatings on roads and thick coatings on the grass…very pretty and last snow most likely until next season…enjoy the warm weather, see you in November!

    1. See you in November. It’s been following the winter weather events with you this season. I look forward to tracking them again next season.

  38. Baseball blahh!! Can’t wait for the draft in 20 days and then when football takes over in late July early Aug, and then through hopefully feb 🙂 it’s the best time of the year imo 🙂

    1. Yes I agree. And coincidentally, winter and SNOW returns which I know you’re excited about 😀

  39. Late night thoughts…

    Will update blog and post by morning.

    I’m going away April 15-21 but I’m probably going to be able to enter short updates from my resort in Florida (Disney World) during the late evenings after a dip in the pool. I don’t have to wait until April 19 to go into a hypothermia-inducing pool in MA. I’ll be in a 75 degree one on the night of April 15. 😀

    Starting later this month or by early May, I’m thinking of altering the format of the blog slightly, eliminating the 7-day forecast in favor of a 5-day detailed forecast and general outlooks for days 6-10 and days 11-15. It’s a format I used in the private sector for over a decade.

    I’ll be posting update blog guidelines and rules soon. There have been instances where these previously-stated guidelines are being pushed and tested, and in the future I’m going to strongly recommend that if you don’t get along with somebody you either 1) Don’t talk to each other, 2) Chat about your differences in your favorite private method (email, Facebook chat, etc.), or 3) Meet up for a beer or mineral water and find out that you probably understand each other a whole lot more in person than though typed words on a computer or cell phone or other electronic device. There are a lot of people that read this blog (that don’t post) that are here for weather information, not to watch people putting their egos on display like a peacock flares his tail feathers in the wild. They do enjoy the give and take, opinions, and links to models and other information. The only “official” forecast regarding the blog will be the one posted in the discussion, but the readers are intelligent enough to know this. They come to the comments section voluntarily of course, but it would be nice to have them able to read thoughts on weather (and the occasional sports or news event). I think we are all able to contribute to this cause.

    If you feel that this request or feel that the blog guidelines are too much for you to handle when I post them, I will remind you that this is a free site and nobody is making anybody stay. It’s all by choice. 🙂 The future of this site is quite bright indeed. Stick around and watch if you like.

    Back to the weather itself for a moment: The ongoing event has gone pretty much as expected. For me, I was surprised by the amount of sun early Wednesday, but that didn’t seem to make much difference since it was actually the result of drier air that allow the temperature to be cooled even more than it would have if we had not gotten that air this far south. The result was snow and sleet in areas that I expected rain, and even some minor accumulation during the afternoon. By night, it was warm enough aloft for mainly rain in MA though some mixing did continue to the north, and most of the minor accumulation did take place in southern NH as was pointed out in the forecast above. Some of the short range guidance was performing poorly and was ignored for this update.

    Upcoming: I’ll get into detail on the next entry but it looks chilly/damp Thursday, milder but still risking showers Friday, a drier weekend though not as warm as advertised. Wind direction will be key for Monday but right now I’m optimistic that there is enough southwest wind to warm much of the region above seasonal averages. This may be the case Tuesday as well but the caveat is always to watch for coastal sea breezes which can make a 20 degree difference just like that.

    I like above normal temperatures overall during the first half of next week. But, already seeing trends to near to below normal temperatures beyond that, possibly including an extended period of onshore flow. So don’t make the mistake of thinking 60-70 degree air early next week means it’s here to stay. Not yet.

  40. 1″ of snow on the ground and snowing lightly still and my heat is blasting through the vents this morning. I’m so freaking annoyed.

  41. Thanks Tk. I think you need to set rules. I would suggest put them out there and if someone violates that automatic removal from blog case closed. You run a great blog here and I thank you for that.

  42. I’m hoping this is the coldest it will get in the boundary layer for this particular event.

    I find it very cold and raw out there this morning.

    Logan almost got down to 32F this morning. In and of itself, that would not be a big deal at all.

    But I think it is in this instance, when you consider the wind is off the ocean and its lightly precipitating.

    Not exactly CCC conditions.

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