Damp Friday, Better Weekend

105 Comments

7:32AM

SUMMARY…
This is a short update making only a few adjustments. Warm front struggles to get across the region today, typical of Spring in this area. Temperatures starting out in the middle to upper 30s this morning with areas of rain and fog. It will struggle to reach the 50s by late in the day. Southeastern New England spends a few hours in the warm sector this evening but rain showers announce the arriving cold front. Fear not, this front brings good news and that is a drier weekend. You’ll have to endure a gusty breeze and less than 100% sun on Saturday as cold air aloft allows for some clouds to form. By Sunday, high pressure overhead means nothing but sun, but the light wind may allow for coastal seabreezes, spoiling the “60s party” that some inland areas may finally make it to. By Monday, going to be optimistic and go for a southwest wind and a warmer scenario for all but the South Coast and Cape Cod. A cold front swings through Monday night with rain showers then offshore Tuesday which will be another mild day with sun returning. A chance for the end of the forecast period is to call for dry and slightly cooler weather Wednesday and warmer again Thursday as another bubble of high pressure comes across the region. As always, the details of the end of the forecast period are lower confidence.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain with embedded heavier showers. Slight risk of thunder. Highs upper 40s to middle 50s not until late in the day. Wind light N to E through mid morning, E to SE late morning into early afternoon, eventually S increasing to 5-15 MPH later in the day.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm evening. Partly cloudy late. Lows in the 40s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH overnight.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-59. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows in the 30s. Diminishing W wind.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-65 inland but 50s coast and may cool back below 50 immediate shore. Wind light variable with coastal seabreezes.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Rain showers at night. Low 45. High 65.
TUESDAY: Early rain showers then clearing. Low 50. High 60.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 55.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 60.

105 thoughts on “Damp Friday, Better Weekend”

  3. Thank you TK.

    Today is the type of situation where often times the warm front NEVER
    gets through. Will it get through today? I say NO way Jose. No warmer weather
    until, ironically, the COLD front pushes off shore.

    We shall see.

    Current surface

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    If that gets through here, I’m Santa Claus AND the Easter Bunny!

      1. Well I’m heavy enough and gray enough to be Santa and
        I am very adept at laying eggs. 😀

  4. I decided to hold back the mild air til early evening on my forecast and even THAT may be too generous.

  6. 39 Boston and 42 Providence at 10 AM, almost no wind, and warm front still 200+ miles distant does not equate to 60 today let alone by noon.

  7. Earlier in the week, I also thought it would reach 60 today. Clearly, that isn’t going to happen. Good call TK 😀

  8. Good morning and thank u Tk 🙂

    Mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks every once in a while, not bad truck temp says 44 degrees 🙂

    1. That is classic. Little wave on the front to our south too.

      The only front coming through here will be occluded.

      1. Thank you.

        btw, My wife and I were watching Eric last night.
        I told my wife No Way we get into the warm air.
        I told that we wouldn’t warm up until the Cold Front ( I know
        technically it would be occluded) comes through.

        Frankly, I was a bit disappointed that Eric was that optimistic.
        I wonder if there was management pressure?
        OR in his assessment, he really thought that the earm
        front would push through???

        I wonder??

  10. Temp is slowly rising, same cloud cover with a few brightening spots, truck temp up to 48 degrees 🙂

    1. I’m liking the clearing behind the front. We won’t see that till tomorrow and even then diurnal clouds take over. We will have to wait until Sunday as TK stated.

  14. 2PM obs
    Logan = 41 with East Wind.
    Norwood=51 with a slight South Wind
    Taunton 51 With a light South Wind
    Worcester 48 with South Wind at 10.

  15. Some highlights of the 2pm obs …..

    Thunderstorm in Albany, NY and Mt. Washington summit at 41F.

    1. Mac dreamed last night that he was a bee living underground and couldn’t get to where there was any sun. Of course I’ve been walking around the house all day buzzing at him 😉

  18. Not long ago from NWS Taunton office

    — Changed Discussion —
    A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
    MILDER TEMPERATURES LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING…BUT ONE LAST
    ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A
    COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

    So, they are still expecting the warm front to push through.
    We shall see.

    It is clearly milder for the most part today, except perhaps the immediate coast. 😀

  19. The warm front passed Mount Washington… SW wind at 62 MPH gusting to 76 MPH and the temp is only 1 degree cooler than Boston. 😉 Teeheehee!

  22. Temp has jumped almost 2 degrees in last 30 min’s which is typically not normal, up to 54.2 degrees, a front of some sorts went through 🙂

  26. NWS says pattern change for next weekend…back to below normal temps. 🙁

    This blog is getting quieter every day…nothing really to comment about other than temps. The only real issue the next few weeks will be daily sea breezes at Logan.

    1. Yes, we had been discussing that possibility the last couple days. I don’t think the warm-up is going to last that long. Not that we’re going back to Winter. It’s impossible. Just back to a cooler pattern.

  29. 52 in Woburn. Right on schedule. It may go up a couple more before the front arrives.

    1. There won’t be a lot of skyrocketing tomorrow on a gusty W wind with cool advection. It will ease up toward 60 there, which will probably the warmest spot in SNE. 50s for everyone else.

    1. Looks like the upper 40s to middle 50s late day worked out.

      A bit muggy feeling out there.

  34. This weekend overall is really gonna be nice. Tomorrow granted some wind lots of sun temps nearing 60 degrees, and Sunday I believe some inland locales temps will be warm and could be the 1st 70 degree day of the spring.for some. 🙂

    1. What a moron. He’s maneuvering the vehicle like he’s having trouble backing into a parking space at the mall or something. And is that the crinkling of a map I hear in the background while that tornado is bearing down on him? A bag of “smartfood” perhaps?

  36. The pollen count may climb over 10 today. Juniper and maple are the usual “offenders” at this time of the year.

  37. Today’s AccuWeather trivia Quiz.

    The dewpoint is greater than the temperature …
    A. When the relative humidity is 100%
    B. When clouds form
    C. When it is raining
    D. Never

    No one should get this wrong. Answer later today.

    1. Yup, but most of the day was stuck in the 40s with the wind
      out of the East. Not a very nice day to be sure.

      Today promises to be much better.

      50.9 here so far. Watching it climb through the 50s. Where will it top out?
      55? 56? 57? Higher?

      BB forecast 55 for Boston. Looks to me to go a tad higher. We shall see.

      Can we touch 60? Possible, but not likely.

      1. WOW! these temperature SUCK!!

        6Z GFS temperatures for 2PM today. This blows

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015041106/gfs_T2m_neus_3.png

        NAM

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015041106/nam_T2m_neus_5.png

        CMC

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015041100/gem_T2m_neus_4.png

        RGEM

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015041106/rgem_T2m_neus_5.png

        Based on the 51.4 I’m seeing at my house now at 8:24 AM, I’d say these appear to be under done.

        1. Promising though for tomorrow. 🙂

          I’ll take 55F after what we’ve been through and we’ve planned an activity down by the Cape Cod Canal, hopefully where there wont be too many diurnal clouds after this high level cloud cover clears out down here.

          1. To be sure. I’ll take 55 as well.

            52.3 here and climbing pretty fast.

            Sure looks like we surpass 55. 😀

            1. Oh and no high cloud cover. 100% bright sunshine, however I see a couple of
              those puffy cumulus. Hope it’s not one
              of those April days that starts out beautiful then completely clouds over with diurnal cumulus. Hope not.

  40. Regarding the temps today, keep in mind that cold advection will be up against strong sunshine. This is why most places will stay under 60.

    1. Understood, that is why I said 60 was possible, but not likely.
      Rate of temperature rise is pretty significant so far. I know it will slow
      down. Now about 30% coverage with puffies. Up to 53.4

      1. The “puffies percentage” will vary based on location and time of day, but I figure Boston should max out about 50% coverage midday.

        Areas from north central MA into southern NH may see broken stratocumulus for a while, more like 75% coverage.

        All diurnal clouds will dissipate by or during evening.

        1. Thank you. I’d say we’re pretty close to 50% coverage
          now at a little past 9AM. Hope it stays that way and
          doesn’t migrate to 75% or higher coverage. 😀

  43. RED SOX FINAL
    Final R H E
    Red Sox 6 18 1
    Yankees 5 14 1
    W: Wright, S
    L: Rogers,

    Now to be certain, in past years the Sox would have LOST that game.
    I think it is a very good sign. Wade Miley looked very good. I think he may
    actually do quite well this year.

    Let’s see what any ole Joe can do today. 😀

  44. 54.5
    Coming up on 50% cumulus coverage. Filling the Sky fairly quickly, unfortunately.
    Without the cloud, we’d easily make 60.

  48. 25% diurnal cloud cover thus far. Surely doesn’t feel like 55 out there with that wind. However, some locales indeed see 60 today. Tomorrow is when the real fun begins with light winds, “abundant” sunshine and temps nearing 70.

    1. Shhh with the light winds, Have to keep them “just” strong enough to keep
      the sea breeze away from the coast. Gonna be close. Looking at the charts, the gradient is not that great. About 10 mph winds. With 38 Degree water out there, the sea breeze may overcome that, at least very close to the coast.

      Tomorrow I could see it 65 at my house, but 52 or perhaps even 48 at
      the airport. It will be interesting to see. Hope it stays away. Always an issue
      with loose gradient.

    2. It’s going to be hard to get close to 70 tomorrow except well inland valley areas. Light wind = coastal seabreezes. We’re also going to have a very low launching pad as it gets quite chilly tonight. Diurnal warming won’t be enough to boost it to 70 without the help of a SW wind, which we will not have tomorrow until the 2nd half of the day. That may be a bit late.

  50. A good hint about nowcasting diurnal cloudcover, or very short-term forecasting (2 hours or so). Pick out your favorite visible satellite loop and focus it right on New England. If you watch about 2 hours worth of loop up to present you can usually predict where the cloudcover is going to be if you watch the trends.

    For example from now to noon, it probably increases for a while in the western Merrimack Valley and JUST inland of the coast of southern Maine and southeastern NH.

  52. Interesting closer to ocean warmer than here. Or perhaps not unexpected. We are at 50.2 and wind gusting to 25 with fairly steady around 10-12. I may never get to use that grill I was so pleased to have assembled myself. But then it is a good way to keep it clean 🙂

      1. I did North. I was quite proud of me. And one of the screws was missing so I had to go to hardware store and find duplicate

  53. New blog posted (just a forecast update) and I reposted the AccuWeather quiz there as well.

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