Wednesday Forecast Update

138 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5…
Cold front slowly pushes through the region today with showers and eventually some thunderstorms. Greatest chance of storms will be in eastern MA and RI with some potential flash flooding. Front sits just off the South Coast by Thursday morning and a wave of low pressure coming along may produce additional showers especially near the South Coast. All clears away Friday as high pressure moves in for Summery weather into if not through the weekend. A front getting closer Sunday may introduce a shower and thunderstorm risk by then.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely by midday especially west of Boston and in the afternoon favoring eastern and southern MA through RI. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 70s. Wind light NE.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Highs 78-85.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-65. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Late-day thunderstorm possible. Lows 65-70. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)…
A shower and thunderstorm threat and cooling down July 13-14 as a trough moves through. Improving weather and warming up July 15-17.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)…
Temperatures near to above normal and rainfall near to below normal during this period. Pattern may be readjusting to more ridging in the eastern US and will watch for this possibility. May be slow to occur.

138 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast Update”

  4. Good morning and thanks TK.

    Brutal out there this morning. Was 77.5 at home before I left for work.
    While I was getting ready a mid-level cloud deck moved in. Only a bit of peek-a-boo
    sunshine at the moment.

    In the parking lot awhile ago, I couldn’t help but notice that the mid-level cloud
    deck was moving West to East. Surface winds are South. hmmm

    Yet maps show NO helicity? I don’t get it. I am seeing it with my own eyes.
    What am I missing?

      1. I have already mentally prepared myself for the bill. It is worth it to be comfortable, especially when trying to go to sleep.

      2. I run mine 24/7 and it costs me about $50-60 more a month. So worth it…that’s the price of one restaurant outing.

  7. Nowcasting the radar and seeing where some light showers are currently …….

    Is this an instance where the thunderstorms develop overhead ….. as opposed to the more traditional case of watching them form to the west and tracking them eastward.

    1. In looking over the radar mosaic, what is about to move through Eastern
      sections Is either left over stuff from last night’s convection OR some
      action with a pre-frontal trough?? I believe our main action develops
      to the West and moves Eastward later.

          1. Yup, makes sense …..

            Albany, NY still with a high dewpoint, so, I agree that the 2nd precip line might be the one to watch.

  9. Heavy downpours to me the biggest threat here. Just southwest of me radar estimated a few towns picking up close to 4 inches of rain. The atmosphere so loaded with moisture.

  10. Terrible humidity!!!! Blakkk!!! But said I wouldn’t complain after the crappy winter we just had 😉

  13. Latest HRRR indicate convection In Boston Noon to 2PM.

    Main action to SE of Boston around 3PM

    IF I were to totally trust the HRRR, the Floor watch is unwarranted.

    This is beginning to look like FIZZLE CITY!!!!

  14. Sun is out where I am and it is a big time stickorama outside. These are some of the highest dew points we have dealt with so far this summer season.

  17. It has brightened considerably here, but no bright sunshine. Still cloudiness, but
    thinner so it is bright and the sun peeks out now and then.

  21. Is it just too warm aloft to support any convection? What’s going on?
    925 temps 21-24C
    850 temps 15-16C
    500MB temps -6C

    ????????????

      1. From NWS

        NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…

        ***FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO
        THIS EVENING FOR ALL RHODE ISLAND…MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN
        MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS SUFFOLK AND NORFOLK COUNTIES***

        This is beginning to look like a Joke. We shall see what happens a little later.

  23. Sudbury river was up on the banks a good distance last weekend. This morning it is way down. Takes no time at all without consistency as TK has said multiple times

  24. NW 1/3rd of sky is showing a lot of blue and its also where the best cumulus cloud of the day is.

  27. At 1PM Logan is 87 with dewpoint of 71 and wind from 260 Degrees.
    That’s more NW than anything. Did we get a wind shift with a Non-Active pre-frontal
    trough??? Are we drying aloft preventing convection?

    What is happening?

  28. Looks like there beginning too build, Boston may escape most of it, providence too Plymouth eastward will get brunt

    1. Charlie, love ya buddy, I really do, but “too” instead of “to” in your posts is killing me 😀

      2. You hit on one of my pet peeves regarding the internet.

        Your instead of you’re
        To instead of too or vice versa
        There instead of their
        There instead of they’re

        I’m sure there are more that are just not coming to mind at the moment.

        1. I get some odd ones but most are learned so suspect Charlie uses too more than to. I get framkngham all of the time because I hit the k rather than I. Mostly my misteachings.

    1. I would say it is the convection associated with the front. The actual front may be lagging a bit behind, but not too far. Unless something happens rapidly,
      Central MA to the coast at Boston will be spared completely. “Perhaps” something will get going South and East of Boston. We shall see.

  33. That part of CT escaped the rain yesterday. Its there turn today. Where I am two rounds of downpours yesterday.

  35. Logan at 2PM 88 Degrees, Dewpoint 69 and wind from 280 at 12 knots.
    Hmmm Looks like the front is in the vicinity of Boston at 2PM and about to pass
    through. Say good-bye to any convection. WHAT A JOKE!

        1. According to HRRR, only CAP was off shore to the East.

          Not any expert by a long shot, but there was ample CAPE
          and plenty of lift with the front. I am thinking it was
          simply too warm aloft to support the convection.

          Just a thought. Ideas? comments?

  37. TK. How is the humidity looking for this weekend? I see the higher temps. Mac has sister arriving from Atlanta so she is used to it. And brother and family from San francisco and they are not. Hoping for deck weather. Thank you?

  39. I’m surprised that line of storms ends in northern RI, because as I sit in Pembroke, MA and look to my west and northwest, there are towering cumulus that look better and better with time.

    The 2pm Taunton discussion update mentions that all the models show the convection increasing as it moves into SE Mass.

  40. Line is well South and East of Boston with NOTHING happening here.
    It is noteworthy that BOSTON was included in the Flood watch. 😀

        1. Just joking. You got caught on the Northern edge
          of line that went through Providence. It ended within
          miles of your location.

  51. There appears to be a secondary line forming back behind the main line.
    New convection in Eastern CT. And a smaller cell out by Worcester.

  53. Unless I’m not seeing things correctly I see no rain whatsoever in and around Boston. The rain well west of us is … well west of us. This rain could be an issue tomorrow morning. In fact, I think tomorrow may be the rainy day and not today. As for the passing front, Boston has escaped any rain, which is strange given the sun, heat, etc …

  54. Radar beginning to light up well South of Boston.
    Big Cell just blew by Franklin. Charlie you may get clipped by the Southern end
    of that one OR miss just North of you. 😀

  55. The way the line of convection has moved steadily South and East, doesn’t
    appear that it is slowing down just yet. 😀

  57. From NWS

    GIVEN BEST INSTABILITY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH
    INTO SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA…WE TRIMMED THE NORTHERN PORTIONOF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE HIGHEST THREAT IS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST.

    New area of flood watch

    http://www.weather.gov/box/

  59. * Front was too fast for decent convection immediate Boston area north and west. Activity fired to the SE as expected, however. The flash flood watch is warranted because as the front slows, some of those storms may train enough to cause some quick local flooding. It was an excellent call by NWS to put that watch up.

    * Weekend humidity: Saturday – low to moderate. Sunday – moderate to high.

    * I think the ECMWF is overdoing the trough in the East in the medium range, but I’m not quite sure the GFS has a good handle on the pattern either. Will re-examine this tonight/tomorrow.

      1. Looks to me like the watch is issued in the area most likely to see training echoes through evening. I think I’d have put it in the same place. The trimming of the original watch area is not a surprise. You would tend to put up a watch for the larger area and then adjust down, instead of having to add to a watch area last-minute.

    4. too fast? Please explain. Not enough time for instability? Why did models
      show 1500 to 2000 joules by 15Z? I don’t get it.
      Please, we need to know. Well I need to know anyway. 😀

      Many thanks

    1. Dust clouds AND El Nino working against tropicals this year. No big surprise.

  62. Interesting hour of training cells from Pembroke, where we were …. to now Marshfield.

    I can see the next cell to my west.

    No wind and I’m guessing the dewpoint is close to 75F.

    Huge, huge raindrops …. no hail, I heard thunder once, but did not see the lightning before it.

  63. UKMET & ECMWF want to give us a period of damp/cool weather first half of next week.

  65. Rain training over Providence, gotta be over an inch easily. Feels like a swamp out there, so uncomfortable.

  66. Seems that rainfall projections for southwest New England tomorrow evening into the first half of the night have increased in the latest set of model runs ……

  70. Feels nice in Boston right now, but we could have benefited from some rain.

    I’m an untrained weather observer, but looking medium to long-range (models) I see no 90s and pretty much zero chance of a heat wave (which of course would imply 90 plus weather). I’m also seeing signs of a return to June-like weather next week. We shall see. Caveat: Heat can build rather quickly in July as we’ve noticed the last 36-48 hours.

  72. I think some of you may be surprised how the weather pattern turns around July 21…

    Also, though a trough swings through the first half of next week, we won’t see a return to June’s weather.

    1. I’m still thinking plenty of warm days ahead as we are just weeks into summer.

      1. I’d be surprised if you were wrong. There is a whole lot of summer left and the seasons are shifting.

        1. I’ve been known to have high confidence and still get blown out of the water. However, I think things are going to turn around quickly right about then…

  73. There is a new blog posted and ready for your reading pleasure and commenting fun. 😛

    Behave and have a good day. 😀

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