Monday Forecast Update

98 Comments

1:59AM

DAYS 1-5…
The work week (unless it’s a vacation week for you) will feature 3 humid days then 2 drier days.
A light wind flow becomes mostly southeast today as 2 fronts work into the region, one a weak warm front from the south, and the other a weak cold front from the north. The cold front will dissipate and the warm front will push through the region, providing enough focus for a few showers to pop up, mainly interior central to northern MA and southern NH. As the boundary lifts to the north a muggy southerly breeze will take over and last through Tuesday, which will be dominated by cloudiness and a slightly better risk of passing showers. Finally a cold front will push through the region on Wednesday with a better chance of showers/thunderstorms. By Thursday, a high pressure area will push all of the humid and unsettled weather eastward and a drier and mild air mass will replace the muggy one. Great Summer weather is likely on Friday as well as high pressure remains in control.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers mainly east central to north central MA and southern NH favoring late morning through mid afternoon. More humid. Highs 70s coast, 80s interior. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)…
High pressure slips to the east and allows humidity and a slight risk of showers to return July 18-19. Upper level high pressure takes over in the southeastern US eventually wanting to push northward, but will still come into battle with a just stream over the northern US and southern Canada. Overall this is a warmer pattern with a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms in the middle to the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)…
Stronger high pressure ridge in the US Southeast and northward-displaced jet stream spells out hotter weather with less of a shower and thunderstorm threat overall during this period.

98 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

  2. Thanks, TK!
    I like what I see for DAYS 11-15. Finger’s crossed it continues right on through the first week of August. Heading out to Chicago for a visit with my son and to see his new/first home!

  6. TK – with regard to your comment (at OMG o’clock in the morning I might add) on Barrow on the previous blog, you got my curiosity up. I have followed its progress in the past but needed to revisit. I found these links from non-non-scientific community. You are right that the media takes a story and runs with it….politically, of course. Sad.

    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/barrow-alaska-climate-change-action

    I haven’t had time to read the Smithsonian article fully but found the right to claim land interesting – and sadly, typical.

    http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/barrow-alaska-ground-zero-for-climate-change-7553696/?no-ist

    1. My main issue regarding politics being in the way is that it leads people that feel strongly about a political platform to react based on that rather than real info. We need to understand and communicate what is really going on so we can act responsibly with the one and only Earth we have.

      I will check out the links. Thanks. 🙂

      1. Oh I totally agree. The right doesn’t believe any change exists…period. As such, many on the right buy in hook line and sinker. Because the left uses global warming rather than climate change, many believe it is due purely to man made problems. Those who tend to vote left also buy in hook line and sinker. But at least the left understands there is a change so I suppose that is a plus. Moderates tend to understand that it is climate change and neither cyclical nor manmade reasons can be rules out but absolutely have to be addressed.

        It has always amazed me that politics has anything to do with it which is why I agree with you 110%.

        PS – may I suggest you do not read the articles at OMG o’clock because you might not sleep well 😉

  7. Vicki: Thanks for the links to articles on Barrow. You are right about it being unusually warm in the Pacific Northwest, which makes sense given that it’s been warm in Alaska, too, as well as BC. My point was that it’s been cooler than normal across a large portion of the Lower 48. Not dramatically cooler, but a bit on the cool side. It’s been unusually cool in parts of Eastern and Northeastern Canada.

    To TK’s point, there is too much politics involved in the global warming debate. While policy and policymakers should be informed by what’s going on, unfortunately politicians of all stripes rarely give data-driven speeches. I hate to sound like the mushy centrist that I am, but I believe that we all bear the responsibility of being good stewards, conserving energy to the degree possible, and avoiding partisan politics on global warming.

    1. Ah ha – I read your comment after posting to TK. And mushy centrist is IMHO the good place to be in this regard. And seriously, politicians are not scientists and neither side uses scientific fact. I had the sense that was what TK meant in his post on the other blog (which is what prompted me to look into Barrow again). They just spout nonsense….both sides.

  8. 6z GFS for Wednesday. I am not excited for big thunderstorms but would not rule out an isolated strong or severe storm.
    CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. I’m NOT excited by any of this. Having said that, conditions are a bit volatile
      and it would not surprise me to see some changes. We’ll just monitor
      for now. 😀

  10. Boston still has a Northeast wind.
    Blue Hill had a fairly robust East wind gusting to 18 knots.
    Northeast Wind as far inland as Norwood.

    Just keep this going until about 2PM and we’ll be OK today.

  11. Any storm that does develop with the humidity in place heavy downpours which COULD lead to some poor drainage flooding. I am not seeing a severe threat as of now.
    The weekend will see as the GFS continues to be aggressive for the weekend for parts of the Midwest and then here on Sunday some of that instablity gets into SNE albeit not as strong as out there but enough for thunderstorm developement. Long way off but something to put on the back burner.

  12. With no 90 degrees yesterday, we move up 7 spots (since July 1), on the Countdown, to Number 5 for the latest 90 degree day in Boston. (I feel like Casey Kasem on American Top 40!). Ironically, we tie 1915 (100 years ago today) for Number 5. Number 4 is tomorrow (1998)…

    Today also marks the four-month mark that I haven’t used the words “ice dam” (in that word order)…I may have used them in reversed order since then!!!

    Have a nice week, everyone!!!

  13. I wonder if this summer is going to be like the winter. A slow start in the big time heat and humidity then it will hit us all at once much like the past winter slow to start then once is going going BANG!!!

    1. 12Z GFS more robust.

      Cape around 2,000 joules and LI around -4 or -5 or so.

      We’ll keep watching.

  16. Thanks tk 🙂 less than 2 weeks till Patriots training camp, there beginning to set up the little carnival type stuff 🙂

  17. Nice. Temperature here in JP has “cooled” down from nearly 82 to
    78.4. I’m at home now before heading out with Mrs. OS a bit later.

    1. Perhaps so. Even though SPC has part of that region in the 10% zone
      for tornadoes, they have only issued 2 separate severe thunderstorm watches.
      Perhaps as conditions change, they will update that or not.

  19. 1 PM Obs From Logan. 74 with dew point of 64. Wind NE at 11 knots.
    Temperature is helping to offset the damn humidity. Down to 78.1 here and down
    to 80 even all the way out at Norwood with a NE wind there.

    1. The breeze seems to be strengthening a bit here too and I agree, the air still feels rather heavy out.

  21. 12z GFS still aggressive for Sunday with instability. This may go poof but this model for couple runs being hinting at a good deal of instability for parts of the Midwest Saturday then here in SNE next Sunday.

  22. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

    down to 76.5 here. Refreshing!!!!

    I just opened all of the windows!!!!

        1. And with a gust of East wind, just dropped to 75.5
          I could actually feel it at the window. 😀

  23. 12z GFS is picking up on the idea a very unstable airmass Sunday through Tuesday of next week with plenty of CAPE and Lift for thunderstorms. Plenty of time to watch that but its interesting as I said this model has been showing a good amount of instablity for a few runs now. Will see if anything materializes.

  24. Getting some very heavy showers to pop in central and western Mass, as well as northwestern Vermont.

  25. If you want to see what a real unstable air mass looks like, just take a look out in IL/IA. Up to 6000J of CAPE! Major severe weather outbreak on the way out there next 12 hours.

    1. Yup. Been noticing that. Never gets
      That high here. I think highest I have noticed
      In our area was 4000 perhaps 4500
      And that is very rare.

  26. A little irony in a way, because of earlier saying I would love to see politics left out of weather-related issues, but since there is an audience here I would like to promote a friend of mine, Vincent Errichetti, who started his new talk show on 1510AM WMEX in Boston today. It runs from noon to 3PM and is called The Political Reality. He also has a show on Thursday evenings, I believe from 6PM to 8PM, called The Taste Of Boston. I may be calling into that show at some point to talk about outdoor events, especially fireworks.

    Whether you agree with his opinions on political topics or not, he is a very good host and educates himself on a subject before forming an opinion. Check him out sometime! The station streams online as well as being on standard AM radio.

    2. Sounds very interesting, TK. I tried to find on google but no luck. Will look more and am sorry I missed today’s show.

  27. Re the 21st and gfs instability.
    Altough ehi is low at about 1
    Shear looks evident. Surface s to se.
    850mb due West. 700mb and 500 mb
    WNW TO NW. Way out there but sonething
    To monitor.

  28. The day of the Springfield tornado CAPE got up to 4,000 out there with Lift Index Values of -8 to -10.
    Most times on average here the CAPE is between 1,000 – 2,000 and Lift Index Value in the -2 to -4 range.

  31. Claudette should come as no surprise, and will be a very short-lived tropical storm. The location in which it formed has above normal sea surface temps at this time. Getting storms forming outside the “typical” areas is what we often see during an El Nino, since this phase of ENSO often prevents Cape Verde storms from forming.

  33. TK, thanks for the radio tip. I do love following politics and the games politicians play. I just don’t like politics entering scientific and sometimes economic debates.

  34. Had a quick shower here in Wrentham, one of those ones where you can literally look up and observe the whole cell affecting you. Can hear thunder too, presumably for that storm to my west.

    My 6000J number for the Midwest is actually conservative. Checking the current observations, there are some sizable pockets of an astounding 7500J of CAPE. There’s going to be a big boom out there…

    1. That latter one formed just about right over me, some thunder and a very brief downpour.

    1. Seem to be firing along frontal
      Boundary. Does it move north
      And bring the activity with it????

      1. The cell by uxbridge looks to mean business. Franklin not quite as serious looking. I just returned from Uxbridge.

        1. Nasty looking cell just wedt of uxbridge.
          Seems to have sucked the life out of
          The other 2 nearby cells.

          1. Was thinking same. At the moment it seems to be literally just west of daughters house and traveling almost due north with just a slight jog east

  37. As if they didnt have enough trouble
    Yesterday a good chunk of minnesota
    Is now under a tornado watch.

    1. If the above comment makes
      It out of moderation it was a mistake.
      The watch was yesterday.
      I am mobile and I missed sonething.
      Sorry and thanks

  38. Home now.

    Down to 74.3

    Worked out perfectly for us today. This was about as good as I could
    have imagined looking at the charts last night. AWESOME!!!!!!

  39. Short range had the cells. No severe. Little if any inside 495. Nothing near Boston.

    1. Does not look like any show/t-storm activity tomorrow, does it?
      we’re pooling tomorrow. Charts look good to me until Wed.
      Am I missing something.? thanks

    2. Cell went around daughter and developed slightly on other side. She says it happens there more often than not. Same here 🙁

  40. 18z GFS continues to show instability in the 19th -21st time frame but down some from the 12z GFS run.

    1. Down some? Down significantly imho.
      It’s Exactly like watching the storms in Winter. There one run and gone
      the next. I believe it IF it is there a day or 2 prior. 😀

  42. HUGE difference NAM vs GFS in instability for Wednesday, a mere 48 hours from today’s runs. Gfs has way more. We shall see.

    1. Just remember what the GFS had last week for Wednesday. Considerably less now, but still there.

  44. Will see what happens in the 19th – 21st timeframe. This is going to go back and forth.
    Lets see what is being shown when we get to the weekend.

        1. The stent in Macs lung is finally being removed. They stopped his draining weeks ago to make sure it was ok to let lung collapse and he’s doing great. Oxygen level at consistent 99. You in there tomorrow?

    1. Morning to midday, 50-75% coverage, under 1.00 inch, probably under 0.50 inch most areas. I do not see any significant support for severe storms at this time.

  52. New post. Not a whole lot of change from yesterday so far…will refine later.

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