Tuesday Forecast Update

90 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms south to north morning through early afternoon. Isolated showers thereafter. Humid. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s except 75-80 South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)…
High pressure slips to the east and allows humidity and a slight risk of showers to return July 19. Upper level high pressure takes over in the southeastern US eventually wanting to push northward, but will still come into battle with a just stream over the northern US and southern Canada. Overall this is a warmer pattern with a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms in the middle to the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)…
Stronger high pressure ridge in the US Southeast and northward-displaced jet stream spells out hotter weather with less of a shower and thunderstorm threat overall during this period.

90 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast Update”

  5. Thanks TK.
    6z GFS continues to be aggressive tomorrow with CAPE and Lift. Don’t see any severe weather tomorrow.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. Back on for the 20th and 21st as well. Quite potent for the 21st with
      robust EHI numbers. A real watch, but still 7 days out. 😀

  8. As for Sunday GFS going with CAPE 500 in eastern sections greatest instablity CT River Valley east 1,000 -1,500
    Monday a big area of 1,500 CAPE along with couple pockets of 2,000 CAPE EHI is around 1 in Boston area.
    Tuesday looks like the most aggressive day with instablity EHI values 1 in Boston area but an area of 2 showing up in CT River Valley CAPE 1,500 in Boston area and 2,000 -3,000 CAPE CT River Valley area Lift -4 Boston area -6 in Worcester area most lift my part of CT with -8.

      1. I don’t think the people of Revere who had and EF 2 tornado come through thought it was quiet thunderstorm wise
        last year. Then there was an EF 1 tornado in Worcester last year.

  10. We’re heads for friends pool in Canton at Noon.
    This crap had better be out of here by then. It “appears” to be moving
    Northward at a decent clip.

  11. Will see if its on the 12z or goes poof but that 19th -21st MAY and I say MAY be a time frame of interest and on where we MAY be radar watching.

    1. LMAO

      I’m Afarid not. But we do cross the Neponset River on the way and that
      river is FULL of fish, however, the River is not very wide, about 1/4-1/5 as wide as the Charles and thus the fish are not nearly as large. Strictly light gear.

  14. I wish instant weather maps would show EHI values. They do show the 21z time frame where the meteocentre being that far out skips over 21z time frame.

  20. There were no surprises yesterday. So far none today. Listening to most local meteorologists you should have come away with the idea that most of the time yesterday thru tomorrow would be rain-free, versus listening to a broad-brushed overly aggressive forecast .

  21. The sky is very picturesque today. Some patches of blue w/big white cumulus clouds and some gray ones, too. It gets dark and then a brief dash of sun. We got a downpour earlier this morning in Sudbury and I wouldn’t be surprised if we get at least one more before the day is through.

    The only thing is – it is STICKY out. Very tropical feel. I’ve got windows open but I may have to put A/C on if sun comes out enough. Just thankful it’s not 90 degrees out today – would be really lousy. Sun just came out bright. I wouldn’t mind the humidity too much if there was a breeze – but no breeze, it is stifling. I love all the seasons and a little HHH isn’t bad – but the thought of a crisp and cold winter night w/snow seems kind of nice right now. 🙂

    1. I guess I’ll have to bottle today up for nxt. winter when I complain how cold it is! 🙂 🙂

      1. As you say, all seasons are great, but I always love a crisp cool night for sleeping, rainshine.

    2. We just had a fairly stiff breeze pick up here but it seems to come and go. We do have ACs on. There were only a few sprinkles in Boston but daughter said there was a downpour here also. Any evidence of it evaporated before we returned.

      It is 79 with a 66 DP

      1. I gave in 1/2 hr. ago and put on A/C. If there was a stronger breeze I might have done w/o the A/C. But the sun has been out a lot now and the temp. here is 80 degrees.

  22. Looking quickly at 12z GFS keeps instability to the west and south of SNE. Just like a winter storm threat its there then its gone. Still will watch if that changes.

  23. I can’t remember the last time Marshfield had a correct temperature and/or dewpoint report. Oh wait… never.

      1. The automated sensor there has never been right. The temp can vary one way or another. The dew point is ALWAYS too high.

    2. I should get trained, build/purchase a weather station and make the ob 🙂

      The one part of that responsibility I wouldnt want in Marshfield is snowfall. Literally impossible to get a measurement in a vast majority of storms, especially in the eastern part of town. And even if you did it in a shealtered area, while perhaps technically correct, it wouldnt represent whats in most people’s yards. ….. How did I get onto snowfall in mid July, yikes ………

        1. I believe its at the small airport that is located about 2 miles west of Brant Rock and perhaps a half mile east of the police station on 139.

          I agree with TK. Both the temp and dewpoint report too high. Temp maybe by 2 degrees and it wouldnt surprise me if the dewpoint was sometimes 3 to 4F too high.

  24. The signs of a more deep Summer pattern continue to show themselves, and we should start seeing the impact here starting between July 21 & 23 and going forward from there.

    1. Excellent !!

      We’ll be in far northern Maine camping next week, so, I need it hotter down here, so, it will be somewhat warm up there. 🙂 🙂

  25. I know it’s a matter of opinion, but I’m surprised how many people have been remarking (in person, not on here) how hot a day it is today as temperatures sit between 72 and 82 across eastern MA with dew points in the upper 60s. Humid? Yes. Oppressive? No. Hot? Not really.

    1. It seems most are the same ones who complain about winter.

      Meanwhile, we have a bunch of wind and dark clouds to the north. A very interesting sky indeed as rainshine pointed out.

  28. So far, looking interesting for tomorrow, at least from an instability point of view.
    I understand chances of severe are quite low.

  30. Boston’s snow pile is no longer

    Eric Fisher added 2 new photos.
    20 hrs ·
    The Mayor hasn’t announced it yet, but I think we can finally say the Southie snow pile is dead. It peaked in late February, lived a long life, and is nice a pile of fetid snow/trash goo. RIP snow pile. Like Frosty, you’ll be back again someday.

    Now

    https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/11751925_911572978881223_8002947824854274957_n.jpg?oh=87cee4a99165d9d95622dc27afe94f6b&oe=56233D60

    In February

    https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtf1/v/t1.0-9/11745416_911572975547890_1559778625597849236_n.jpg?oh=dd17a9ae6c199ac209d9cf21dd473822&oe=560FE928

  31. 12z GFS tomorrow. This run of the GFS much different for the 19th -21st time frame. I have a feeling this will go back and forth.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  32. This is classic hybrid tropical mixed with upper low weather. Not super-humid, but we have tropical humidity (and no haze) and are under the influence of the circulation around a sprawling but weak upper low.

  33. The February picture of the snow pile is a thing of beauty. Thanks for sharing, OS.

    Tom, how far north are you headed in Maine? Van Buren? Baxter State Park?

        1. Great photo, OS. Katahdin is the most impressive mountain in New England, I think. Mt. Washington is bigger, and has more extreme weather (perhaps), but nothing beats Katahdin’s ridge line.

          1. Pretty amazing Mountain. I didn’t take nor have this photo. I just googled it and there it was in all of its glory.

          2. In looking at Rocky Mountain peaks, they always talk about their Prominence, ie How high a peak
            rises above the surrounding area. This is spectacular in that regard!

          3. Son has climbed both but Washington is his favorite. I suspect it may have some to do with his grandfathers love of Washington too

            Tom sounds like another wonderful vacation.

              1. Not a clue. But as I said, I suspect sentiment enters into it. I can’t look at Washington and not see my dad skiing tuckerman

  34. Dew points to our SouthWest are quite high.

    Bridgeport = 72
    Islip, Li = 72
    NYC, Kennedy = 73.9

    Is that crap destined for us overnight and tomorrow AM b4 being rescued by
    a front?

  36. According to Pete, hot temps for August and September. He obviously has been lurking on this WHW blog. 😉

    Wouldn’t be interesting if after a very hot September…accumulating snow in October?? 😉

  37. I’ve been hearing by several news outlets and even had channel 4’s Eric fisher on the sports hub talking about how this upcoming snowfall could be well below average snow wise, and a degree or 2 above average.

      1. Sensibly with El Nino expected to last through Winter I’d have an idea of leaning warmer and drier for the northern US including the Northeast. At this point, this is far from my official Winter forecast, however. It’s just a very early speculation based on occurrences in the past.

        I am more confident of a back-loaded heat Summer though with some heat and humidity for August & September. This does not necessarily translate to more thunderstorms. That remains to be seen.

  39. From Taunton for next week
    TUE AND WED…
    AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR POSSIBLE A SECONDARY
    UPPER LVL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
    FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
    POSSIBILITY OF A REMNANT EML AND FAIRLY DESTABILIZED COLUMN WITH
    WARM LOW LVL TEMPS AND REASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE. STILL TIMING
    ISSUES AND OVERALL COLUMN STATIC STABILITY TO WORK OUT…BUT THIS
    PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED.

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