Friday Forecast Update

74 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5…
The Dog Days are over (they run July 3 through August 11 by definition) but the dogs are arriving late this season as we’ll be seeing some heat building into the region during the next 5 days. It doesn’t hit right away, however. First we go through a weak warm front / cold front combination later today through Saturday, moisture starved and falling apart, producing only some cloudiness later today as showers to the northwest never get close, then some additional cloudiness for Saturday with a relatively low risk of a few showers and thunderstorms. By Sunday, high pressure builds overhead then sinks to the south, allowing for the heat to build in by the start of the week. By late Tuesday, a thunderstorm threat exists as a cold front approaches from the north.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 73-78 Cape Cod and immediate coast, 78-83 elsewhere. Wind light variable in the morning, light SE to S in the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light S.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod and South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind light SW.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 84-91.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 65-72. Highs 86-93.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms late. Lows 66-73. Highs 86-93.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)…
Very warm and humid with showers/thunderstorms possible August 19. Cooler and drier August 20. Mainly dry with building heat and humidity August 21-23.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)…
High pressure ridge dominates. Temperatures above normal. Rainfall below normal.

74 thoughts on “Friday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Your super forecasting is amazing ………. The next 10 to 15 days will verify the back loading of heat in El Nino summers you mentioned weeks ago.

  3. Good morning and once again, thank you TK.
    Also, thanks for keeping rain chances tomorrow slight!!

    re: Pats
    Well, it was a pre-season game. Who cares.
    I watch about 1/2 of it.
    I haven’t put much thought into what I saw, but I will say this:

    1. Brady will be fine and I think he will have a monster season.
    2. Jimmy G was OK. Nothing spectacular, but he didn’t stink out the joint either.
    Playing behind a bunch of rookies, he was on his Ass most of the night. He made
    some good throws and some, well, not so good. He showed flashes. Honestly,
    down the road, he could be a fine NFL quarter back.
    3. Boyce is USELESS. My Grandmother could soft toss him a ball and he couldn’t
    catch it. USELESS!!! Let em go!!!
    4. Gibson looked good. Play him over useless.
    5. Jonas gray looks like a Stud. A Keeper!
    6. Defense looked really good at times, so perhaps there is hope.
    7. Given #6, Logan Ryan still isn’t cutting it.

    1. Depressing!! And the sunsets…Ouch that is accelerating in the Wrong Direction.
      Even though the weather is nice and it is warm, it feels like AUTUMN to me. 😀

          1. It will to me. Why you ask?

            Because of the later sunrises and earlier sunsets
            AND there is just a “smell” in the air this
            time of year that says it’s not Summer. Kind
            of a leafy smell that signifies the Autumn.

            Call me nuts, that’s ok.

            Yes it will still feel hot, no denying that.

            Btw, you were discussing mosquitos last night.

            I have NOT been bitten a single time this year
            and I have been out fishing in areas traditionally
            loaded with them. Go Figure.

  7. TK, thanks for posting the pictures yesterday of the cumulus layering in Boston. Also, thanks for the explanation.

    JPDave (aka OS), I agree with you that it no longer looks and feels like mid-summer. The midday heat will definitely make it feel like mid-summer, but the period of heat is considerably shortened as a result of the diminished daylight.

    Odd smell – fishy – coming from the Charles. I wonder if that has to do with the lack of rain to `refresh’ the water. I’ve also seen a lot of dead fish along the sides of the lagoon. They may be contributing to the smell, but I think the water itself is foul. Perhaps excessive algae growth?

  8. To me once you get to around the 10th of September the heat and humidity to me doesn’t have the staying power as we get in June July and August. To me were in the stretch run of summer.

    1. For me the sun doesn’t feel as strong from about now going forward, don’t get me wrong it’s still moderately strong, but not like June and July 🙂

    1. There won’t be many new weeds popping, 90% of all broadleaf and crabgrass has already sprouted about 4 weeks ago, if you have weeds now they have become big enough for you to see them. If you’ve stayed on top of them through June and July there’s not many germinating now. 🙂

  10. Lawns that have been taken care of are in the beginning stages of recovering from the summer stress, oysia which not many residents have are under stress, but that happens every year. I hate that grass

  11. Hmmmm smells like August to me or as TK said late summer. I also love the start of early dark. Just as I love the start of longer light. Same old thing. Mother Nature not quite letting go of one season while teasing with the promise of another. I figure if I don’t enjoy it, I’ve missed at least 4 months of the year….probably closer to six.

  12. Just curious…Regarding Brady and his trip to Vegas with Ben Affleck and the Nanny, I hope that wasn’t the same time as the team’s visit to the White House?

    Quite frankly, Brady’s absense didn’t set too well with me personally even if it was a legitimate reason involving family unless it was a true emergency. I just hope it wasn’t for the above reason and that the timeframe doesn’t match.

    1. I know nothing about the nanny thing. But totally agree with you in regard to his not attending with his team at the White House. I am 100% behind him in this ridiculous mess with the NFL. However, he has done some things (as a player and not in his personal life) that make me shake my head. He is smarter than that.

      1. Yes, but remember he’s a human being just like the rest of us
        and is entitled to have a fuax pas here and there. I’m with him
        100% and I hope this BS being bandied about by the tabloids or tabloid TV is not correct.

        2. I absolutely agree. I won’t touch anything in the tabloids which is why I was careful to say I know nothing about the nanny thing. His business alone, and if it is correct, still his business. BUT I personally think he made a huge mistake, as I’ve said, in not going to the White House. He is one of those instrumental in the “team” and not individual for the Pats that started all other NFL teams thinking along those lines.

          I totally get why he destroys his phones, and in particular this one….and I understand that the NFL said they didn’t want his phone so he was well within his rights to destroy it. In addition, they have everything from the phone anyway. But why wasn’t the one he had previous to that destroyed. Just dumb.

          1. The white house visit is the ONLY thing I have a problem with. I do not understand it.
            It could have been totally legit. We do not know and will probably never know. He also could
            have blown it off. I was pissed at Tim Thomas
            for doing it and I am not happy Brady did it.
            Not happy at all.

            Thomas was an ass and stated it was political.
            That kind of behavior is Beneath Brady, whatever his political leanings are. HE would NEVER do that, NEVER. It was some other reason and we don’t really know what that is.

    2. I am all for what Brady wants to do, I have no problem for whatever reason he didn’t do or do. He’s the leader of the team, yes he gets special treatment. Why? He’s Tom Fricken Brady, the best qb or top 2 this league has ever seen.

      Side note: as stated yesterday on ratings, it got a peak rating of 31.9, WOW!!!! You think people are hungry for football? That should tell ya, I’ve never seen that high of a TV rating for basically a glorified practice. 🙂

      1. I absolutely do not agree. He doesn’t get to be any more special than anyone else. As leader of a team you are still an integral part of that team, you represent that team. I listened to Yaz being lectured in either 1968 or 1969 (actually yelled at) when the Sox were having a bad year and he was sulking. He was told that he is the driver for that team. It is his absolutely duty to set an example. As such he was to run in from left field…not walk, not sulk…man up. He didn’t listen at first and was eventually benched for his lack of leadership. Then he figured it out and the team improved.

        A team is only a strong as its weakest link. Charlie, I’m surprised that you say you know the Pats so well and do not understand this is very much part of their philosophy and why they win.

        All of that said, I can see now why you do not think sports figures should be a role model. You put them so far up on a pedestal that they absolutely cannot help but fall down.

        1. Lol I got carried away, I agree, but still he’s Tom Fricken Brady, and yes I you never look at any sport professional as a role model. Of course there is 1 exception, if you know him like family and or is family. 🙂

  13. Henry Margusity Fan Club

    3 hrs ·
    .

    I am starting to think this winter is going to be a wild one. I was checking out Kocins Northeast Snowstorm book and looking the winter of 1957-1958 which had a strong El Nino, Negative NAO and Positive PDO. It all lead to a stormy and snowy winter in the East with several blizzards!

    1. Sounds like he went over all the El Niño years, and picked the winter with the most snow. We shall see, most just quiver to hear the swear word 🙂

    2. Is that the year we had 3 storms in a row in March, including 3/21?
      It was around that time. Of course I didn’t know anything about El Nino, only that there was a CRAP LOAD of SNOW!

    1. Yes, that was me. Thanks for sending. I hadn’t read this. I just observe and smell things on my run in the morning. My father had a keen set of observational skills. Some of it rubbed off on me. It works sometimes with respect to observing nature and observing people.

      1. You are welcome, Joshua. Funny that Mac commented also on the algae on the Sudbury River today as we drove by.

    2. The Pristine Jamaica Pond has the same problem this year.
      First time I have ever witnessed it. Signs all over.

  15. Watching the 12z EURO run ……. Quite warm 850 mb temps overall, but there are a few days where they run at 18-20C.

    I wonder if there’s a 95 to 98F day or even 2 coming within the next 2 weeks …..

    1. SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO)!(&@#*&!*@^#&*!@^#&^!@&#&!@

      Oh did I say NO????????????????????

      NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

    1. Seriously I’m Leaning towards going high.
      Why? Obviously I have to wait to see how Autumn unfolds, But I am
      thinking Split Jet. El Nino provides the constant moisture and storms,
      while Northern Stream supplies to Cold. Have to wait and see how
      things line up.

      All I can do is remember how Stuart Soroka kept saying HOW dangerous
      a split jet could be in terms of NE snows. Yes Stu Soroka, the meteorologist who once got fired for interviewing a dog on the beach. Besides being on
      channel 7, he used to do a weather segment on WBCN FM from the Beach
      in Marshfield. He was a character, but damn good. He died of pneumonia
      at age 45. So sad.

      I understand completely that odds favor a milder less snowy Winter, but
      odds don’t always work out. Should be interesting.

      1. This time the southern jet will take most storms across the South to the Mid Atlantic and OTS while the polar jet locks much of the cold air way too far north. That will be the dominant pattern with short-lived anomalies that will provide our limited snow chances. So I guess that’s my Winter forecast, a few months early. 😛

        1. Oh I understood that, believe me.

          I still find it fascinating. We shall see how it all works
          out. You have been on fire, that’s for sure.

          I may very well change my mind between now and Oct/Nov. 😀 And I did say “leaning”. 😀

    1. A bit more…

      Torey Lovullo will manage the rest of the season. Farrell said it is “highly curable.”

      1. Indeed. I do not care for him as a manager, but as a person
        I wish him nothing but the best. I don’t want anyone to
        have to deal with cancer.

  18. Let summer and fall spill into winter, and then let spring spill back into winter, great stuff!!! 🙂

  19. Prayers indeed for John Farrell. While I don’t think highly of him as a manager, he appears to be a mensch. And that counts for a lot, in my book. Yes, more than winning quite frankly. As a person, give me a Farrell over a Lombardi any day of the week. There are too few mensches in sports. It’s rare to see the kind of warmth he and Terry Francona exude as managers. I wish John Farrell well.

    1. A mensch. Joshua I love that. I am sure if he saw your comment here he would also. Gave me happy tears.

  21. FB says 12 years ago tonight great blackout of 2003. We were at Humarock and there was no power loss there. I do remember the one in 1960s. I suspect some here do as well. 1965? Perhaps 66 but going with 65. Back then they thought extra terrestrials. In 2003 some thought terror. The change in our society

      1. Thanks Keith. Cambridge has a raised storage reservoir in Belmont. We lived across from it. Parents were at a meeting. Brother at a friends. So I walked around reservoir loving every minute. I clearly have not changed in 50 years

        1. Oh and today a 16 yr old girl wouldn’t be walking around a dark reservoir at night. I do miss those days

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