Monday Forecast

62 Comments

1:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)…
After lingering ocean chill today between a train of low pressure far offshore that includes Joaquin and the system that gave SC flooding rain, and high pressure to the north. After this, it’s back to the DRY and MILD pattern for the balance of this week, and that should come as no surprise because it is the long term regime. A few chilly days, as we saw to start October, does not mean we’re suddenly in a brand new weather pattern, nor does it mean that Winter’s here. There’s a season called Autumn that actually comes before Winter, and we just saw that season get underway recently. If it seems like I’m writing with a bit of a sarcastic edge, congratulations! You’re very observant. My point here is that people need to realize that weather is weather, seasons are seasons, and they can be highly variable, but they still go as they go. Is a hurricane, such as the strong one that battered the Bahamas, unusual? No. Hurricanes are a natural part of the Earth’s quest to find uniform temperature throughout its atmosphere, only to be thwarted by the sun. Is an “extreme” rain event like the one that hit SC unheard a bizarre occurrence? Define “bizarre” and then we’ll see. These events happen too, more rarely in any given location, but they do occur. And it’s important for one to keep in mind that our history of observing and measuring such events only goes back but a very short time in the history of the planet, not to mention they are impacting an ever-growing population. So, we label them what we like, but the one simple fact remains: they are weather events, products of the atmosphere. If we’re in the way, we’re going to be impacted. And now more people are in the way, so since there is a direct proportion in play here, naturally more people are going to be impacted. So now that we have that cleared up, what kind of things will be impacting southern New England after today? How about high pressure moving down from Canada and providing great weather Tuesday through Thursday? Sounds good to me. And after that? A cold front on Friday will bring a chance of showers, exact timing not known but leaning toward the afternoon/evening for the threat of showers at this time. Forecast? Read on…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning with clouds most dominant eastern MA and RI, then partly to mostly sunny afternoon with clouds remaining most prevalent southeastern MA. Highs 58-65, coolest Cape Cod, mildest north central MA to south central NH. Wind NE 10-20 MPH and gusty, strongest coast.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from near 40 interior valleys to near 50 shoreline. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-55. Highs 65-75.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. PM showers possible. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)…
Dry October 10-13. Chance of showers October 14. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)…
Dry pattern with very limited rain chances. Temperatures near to above normal.

62 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Enjoyed your write-up. Nicely stated.

    On last night’s news they kept saying that what happened in SC was a 1000 year event.
    Do you agree with that? I’ll bet anything that something like that would occur more
    frequently, perhaps a 100 or 200 year event. Your thoughts?

    Our US weather records go back to what the 1870s or 1880s?? Prior to that we rely
    on written accounts, IF there are any, so who’s to say???

    You know I am in the Climate Change camp, but to say that what happened in
    SC was caused by Climate change is not necessarily so. It was a perfect set of
    atmospheric conditions that triggered that event.

    Oh well, now that the excitement of Joaquin is over, we return to our regularly
    scheduled BOREDOM! Yawn! Yawn! Ho Hum!

    1. I believe Boone Hall was originally built in the late 1600s. Pickney plantation was next to it and is now Snee Farm. I think it was later – perhaps early 1800s. I would think there would be written accounts. It would be interesting to research.

      They received the lion’s share so far with just over two feet.

    2. It’s hard to put a number on such events as they can be and are often very unevenly spaced in time. But I’d lean more toward your idea.

  7. Thanks, TK. I enjoyed your write up and sticking with being predictable, I bet you knew I’d comment 🙂

    I also live in the climate change camp. I don’t know anything about the hurricane except what WxWatcher posted yesterday. We are having stronger storms in many instances than in recorded history. The reason….climate is a changing. That doesn’t mean it is permanent or that we caused it. It also doesn’t mean it is not.

    We are to blame for a good deal of what we see as upcoming problems. Boston and Charleston are facing rising ocean levels. Again, they are caused by rising thermal expansion and melting ice….climate change. But….Charleston and Boston are built on water. They are where they do not belong. Man.

    All of that said, two feet of rain is not a regular occurrence in Mt. Pleasant but then neither were hurricanes such as Hugo. My heart aches for these folks.

  8. Thanks tk 🙂
    I do not think there’s enough information to even think humans have anything to do with any weather change. We only have 300 or so years to go on, and that’s the smallest of smallest blips to have any concrete info. In the meantime I think people or man should be responsible in discarding trash and car omissions etc etc etc.

    1. I agree as I believe many also do. We do not know. I think there is more than enough evidence, however, to prove humans are destroying the earth. So we stop that and if it is changing weather, then we solve two problems. If it is not changing weather, we solve a more than serious and quite separate problem.

      1. Destroying the Earth? I should say so. Not much doubt about that. If we are in some sort of Natural warming cycle, then
        for certain we are adding to it. Best we take action before it
        is too late and it may already be too late.

        Ok onto the weather? Oh wait, nothing happening.
        ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

        2. Let’s not try to control climate change, who knows if the ocean is rising, naturally. Which I believe is with or without humans. Besides unless China is listening, which there not going to for a very very very long time, it’s like peeing in a 60 mph wind. It’s like recycling, sure half of our recycling is beneficial for reusing, but a lot is for money, and a complete waste at that. Most of the states in America don’t even recycle, many just burn it in a trash barrel. Hey it’s my opinion, it’s popular here, but many many many places and states in America, never mind most of the world. Take the excess of money and fix the dam highways around here, or update the infrastructure. Much more important IMO 🙂

          2. It is your opinion and it is perfectly acceptable.

            My mom always asked me if someone else jumped off a cliff, would I do it also. I hear a lot of folks say China and others are doing it so why should we stop. It is my opinion we have to stop somewhere. And we have to clean up this country. And China has agreed to start cutting emissions.

            I totally agree we have to address near concerns but I don’t agree that should be done at the cost to our future and our kids and grandkids future.

            Just an opinion

        3. Nasa scientists have stated we should be in a cooling phrase till 2040, we are still warming though.

  9. On Another note, related to Joaquin:

    News
    Missing El Faro Cargo Ship Sank, Coast Guard Says

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/10/05/el-faro-cargo-ship-coast-guard/

    Seems senseless to me. There was a known hurricane out there.
    How in this day and age a captain of a ship could be so careless as to
    take the ship into harms way is beyond me?

    I’m wondering IF there weren’t some sort of problem with the navigational equipment?? Rudder? OR some other equipment failure?

    Is this a another Bermuda Triangle mystery for the ages?

    OR did we just have a dumb-ass Captain at the helm?

    Beats me.

    1. I wondered the very same thing about the captain and if there were some sort of malfunction. Although I heard one person say her daughter emailed her and said they were heading into a hurricane. She told her mother she loved her; and had in the past told her if she died at sea, she died doing something she loved.

      1. I saw that too. What sea captain in their right mind deliberately
        heads into a hurricane????

        Well, I can tell you how.
        The Captain was ordered by his Greedy superiors and at the
        risk of losing his job he proceeded and lost his life and the lives of 40 something others. IF that is the case, The Company should be sued for all they are worth by the families of those lost. IF this is the case, it is a perfect example of the corporate greed I cannot stand!!!

        Perhaps the Captain made this decision on his own to impress
        his superiors? I don’t know and we’ll probably never know.

        Something STINKS in all of this. That’s how I will leave it.

          1. This whole thing puzzled me too. One factor might have been how fast those ocean liners can travel. I’m guessing it very fast so maybe couldn’t outrun Joaquin? The other thing is, Joaquin, at least early on, was a forecasting nightmare. It spun around down there basically stalled for days with a low confidence forecast for not only direction but even intensity. No models had thing thing even approaching hurricane strength early on let alone major hurricane strength. The captain probably had to make an early decision based in the info at the time. By the time it was apparent the storm would be much worse and move in the direction it did it was probably too late to react.

  11. Hadi we will be at the redskins game also. We will be sitting 1st row directly above the cellar stairs where they go down and come up for halftime. 🙂

  13. Since it’s a slow weather day I wanted to announce there will be a new addition to the Woods Hill Weather family in the spring as my wife and I are expecting our first child on April 11th! 😀

    6. Congratulations, Ace!

      My prediction for April 11th, 2016: Sunny and warm to begin the day, with temperatures rising to the low 60s, but falling back to the upper 40s as a seabreeze kicks in with some cloudiness.

        1. Here’s the forecast I’ll give you, just like for my son’s
          birth on 4/8/78.

          Cloudy and Cold with temps in the upper 30’s and
          frequent snow showers.

          1. That wouldn’t surprise me given TK’s prediction of a late arrival to winter. Maybe snow on the ground still?

          2. Lots of April birthdays here. My brother and father in law April 10, nephew April 11, grand number 4 April 23 and baby brother April 29. As I said..great month.

  14. Quick question: Did the Euro model or any other for that matter predict the amount of rain that has fallen in South Carolina?

  16. Thanks everyone! First grandchild on both sides, no pressure. Terrified but excited at the same time

    1. Well, now, that is beyond special!! It is a scary time but also a very exciting time. I have absolutely no doubt that you will both be wonderful parents.

  18. Charlie I want to go the game but needs two tickets as I am not willing to pay hundreds for tickets.

    1. Geez I’ll try, I thought you had tickets, I wish I would have known, I’m sorta lucky bc I know johnathons niece that lives in Dallas, and I got 2 for face value, plus I have many that are season tickets, but they have never been harder to get this year, it’s unbelievable!!!

        1. Yeah no way am I paying huge bucks for average aeats. If I am going I also want good seats otherwise I have a beautiful tv and will enjoy the game either way.

  19. Joshua the euro was painting very high QPF for South Carolina. I don’t remember is it was this much, actually the nam and GFS also had very high totals.

  20. Did anyone know 450K people leave Massachusetts between Dec 1st and April 1st? Only 2nd to New York which had 1.1M leave during the same time.

      1. It is because MA is such a prosperous state that they can afford winter homes elsewhere. They don’t leave…they just head to Gods waiting room and then return. The same is true for folks from the south in the summer. They head north where the air is breathable but typically stay with family, however, since many of the southern states are not As prosperous.

        😀

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