Sunday Forecast

78 Comments

8:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)…
This discussion would essentially be the same as yesterday’s so just to summarize, northeast wind flow continues through Monday then shifts to northerly Tuesday as Hurricane Joaquin and a follow up low pressure area track far southeast of New England while a big high pressure area sits to the north. A new high builds down by the end of the period solidifying the trend back to dry weather here. Coastal flooding at times of high tide will still be an issue into or through Monday before subsiding.
TODAY: Lots of ocean clouds but intervals of sun. Patchy drizzle eastern coastal areas at times. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Areas of drizzle especially eastern coastal areas. Lows in the 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows 47-54. Highs in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Highs around 70.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 44-51. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)…
High pressure exits with a warm-up October 9, but a risk of showers at night until the early part of October 10 as a cold front passes. Dry weather returns during October 10 and lasts the remainder of the period with a brief cool shot then a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)…
Shower risk to start this period then a return to dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal, coolest October 15-16, warmest October 17-18.

78 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

      1. Wunder has them at 1.62 as of midnight. I don’t know how much was added after I went to sleep but that puts them around 10 inches. And coming off shore with a good portion being at sea level is worrisome

          1. I seem to recall the battery is slightly below sea level but may be wrong. I know either way it is taking a pounding.

    1. Yup the house my family lives in is about 60 ft above the ocean, but is at the mercy of the winds. People there are typically well prepared, if I’m not mistaken, this will be the 3rd hurricane last 15 yrs. My nephew is 20 yrs old and says this will be his 3rd or 4th. 🙂

      1. I agree.

        We’ve been there 5 times. We once stayed a week in house just
        across the road from the beach between Elbo Beach and the Sonesta. It was awesome. Well constructed, I might add. They’ll be fine.

    1. It most certainly is! It looks to cross west of the island by at least 100 Km which should spare Bermuda from the core of the strongest winds. Also, Joaquin is moving swiftly so the effects should not be devastating.

        1. Bermuda weather service indicated closed pass would
          be 60 miles. That was from earlier this morning, so
          who knows.

    2. One report I read said people asked to remain where they are. Another said there was an order to remain where they are. We had problems with three inches. I cannot even wrap my head around the rain they are getting there

  9. Looks like the Jets are on their way to another win.

    Gusty breeze and cool today. Clouds will probably dominate much of the afternoon as low level moisture increases a little. The mid level drying did a number on the rain chances yesterday. This was not a surprise and was the reason I did not forecast much rain for the afternoon hours. Turned out excellently for the Six Flags New England visit. It was raw & cool with the breeze under a grey sky at first but the sky did brighten at times and as we got to evening the temp went up a few degrees and the wind slackened and it was actually quite comfortable. Everyone based their plans on weather apps that said rain all day so basically the place was empty. The longest wait for any ride was 5 minutes, and that includes all the coasters. Nate rode one of the coasters 6 times. I guess he liked it. 😛

    We stay in the ocean flow through Monday with indirect impact from Joaquin, more as just part of the overall low pressure to the south with high pressure to the north. Been taking a look at the short, medium, and long ranges this morning and this is a summary of how I feel about things going forward (short and sweet)…

    Next week: Milder but still up and down temps and mainly dry. I know that outdoor plans hinge on timing for next weekend and so far I am optimistic that we just get a straight cold frontal passage Friday night or Saturday morning.

    Mid and late October: Strong jet stream, fast-moving stuff and a lot of up and down temps but an overall milder than normal and very dry regime.

    November: Plenty of opportunity to finish up the late yard work. Mild and dry.

    December: Wouldn’t it be funny if we got a very early snowstorm that made people think “oh no, here we go again…”. Mother Nature loves to play tricks like that. Overall, mild and dry.

    January: Shhhh. I think Old Man Winter forgot to set his alarm clock. Mild and dry.

    February: Maybe we should wake him up? I mean he might be really angry if we don’t. Mild and dry.

    March: Old Man Winter just woke up REALLY LATE for work but only has enough time for one cold/snowy month before he has to go on vacation for a long time.

    April: Summer can’t wait.

    May: Summer really can’t wait.

    Summer 2016: Torch.

          1. Well “letdown” depends on your point of view.

            For me, there are no letdowns, there is just weather. I’m fairly confident it will be on the mild side of normal, and it’s a pretty safe bet snow will be under to way under last season – goes without saying really.

            We’ll have it relatively easy compared to last Winter, but we will still have “winter weather”.

            1. It’s kind of easy to say well it won’t be as bad as last year . Is it a strong Elnino that defines your call if you will , thank you Tk great job as always .

        2. To be truthful, I can deal with a Mild & Dry Winter.
          It’s the TORCH for next Summer that will have me
          bitchin like you have never seen before!!!

    2. TK, the majority of your short, medium and long range forecasts for the past 5 years have been fairly the same. Mild and dry.

      1. That’s because I suck and can’t forecast so I always go for the same thing. Or perhaps you forgot that I actually went colder and snowier for the 2nd half of the 2014-2015 Winter after a mild start with not much snow (granted, nobody saw the amount of snow reaching the levels it did).

        2. 19 out of 20

          I wouldn’t say you suck, don’t be so hard on yourself 🙂

          I would simply say you seem more predictable than the weather.

  10. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    Of the following, which is the hottest?
    A. The surface of the sun.
    B. Molten lava.
    C. The inner core of the earth.
    D. Lightning.

    On what date was the earliest snow of any significance (1 inch or greater) in Boston?
    A. October 19
    B. October 29
    C. November 5
    D. November 13

    Answers later today.

      1. Sorry C for second was supposed to be B. Not autocorrect. Just my memory and not looking back up to check

  16. OK TK…I get the idea that you are hinting at a mild & dry sandwich with two slices of “snowy” bread.

    I guess after last winter of 100″+ of snow we can use a break. The silence on this blog though will probably be deafening in the coming months. 😉

    Will it be back to reality come Winter 2016 TK?

    1. If the long term indices behave as I figure they may, the Winter of 2016-2017 will be much different than the one we’re about to have.

  19. I saw one winter forecast that said Boston will receive 15-25 inches for the entire winter. Not sure there’s any merit to it, but since tk has eluded to a mild below awe rage snow winter, maybe they talked to you. 🙂

    1. knots (mph) °C (°F) % mb / “Hg
      14:42 Overcast Rain E 30/41 (35/47) 25(77) 90 997 / 29.44
      13:55 Overcast Rain E 33/43 (38/50) 25(77) 89 999 / 29.50
      13:46 Overcast Rain E 32/43 (37/50) 25(78) 86 1000 / 29.52
      13:39 Overcast Rain E 32/42 (37/48) 25(78) 87 999 / 29.51
      13:21 Overcast Rain E 30/48 (35/55) 26(78) 85 1000 / 29.54
      12:55 Overcast Showers E 30/0 (35/0) 26(78) 84 1001 / 29.57
      12:35 Overcast Showers E 35/0 (40/0) 26(79) 82 1002 / 29.58
      11:55 Overcast Showers E 27/0 (31/0) 26(78) 82 1003 / 29.63
      11:35 Overcast Showers ESE 27/0 (31/0) 26(78) 84 1004

      The above is on the airport about 15-20 miles NE of where the webcam.
      Where the webcam is on the SW part of island, I’m sure wind is gusting
      in excess of 60 mph.

  21. An early prediction

    Winter will arrive after fall….after winter ,spring will arrive to be followed by summer and then back to right where we are. I predict also that it will go too quickly so plan to enjoy every second of whatever mother nature brings in an attempt to slow it down just a bit. ☔️❄️☀️⛅️☁️⚡️⭐️

  23. My friends of 45 years and I had a great day of golf today and it was because of THIS BLOG!

    I saw the predictions of a decent Sunday when others were still calling the hurricane to come ashore in NE.

    We all made plans Thursday and had a great day today as a result.

    Golf in a 2-3 club wind is so interesting and fun.
    THANK YOU!

      1. Plenty of football on. I had it on starting at 9:30 am this morning for the Miami / Jets game from London .

          1. Football is my favorite sport and the only sport where I can watch any team play. I love football.

            2. I can’t complain the last two Sunday’s each I won $400 so $ 800 in two weeks not bad at all. Actually it’s $950 cause my son won last Sunday as well. Going for the sweep this Sunday did not pan out .

  24. AToday’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    Of the following, which is the hottest?
    A. The surface of the sun.
    B. Molten lava.
    C. The inner core of the earth.
    D. Lightning.

    The answer is D.

    On what date was the earliest snow of any significance (1 inch or greater) in Boston?
    A. October 19
    B. October 29
    C. November 5
    D. November 13

    The answer is B.

  26. Wrote and posted blog early for Monday.

    It’s a bit wordy at the beginning because after watching the news this weekend, I’m plain FED UP with the way the media treats weather.

    Ordinary events are extreme.

    Extreme events are the end of the world.

    IT’S GETTING BEYOND STUPID. I’ve been around weather enough to have seen that the way we view these things is not helping at all. Weather is becoming ENTERTAINMENT. That’s going to get us into trouble…

    Anyway, moving forward.

    Good day all. 😀

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