Wednesday Forecast

187 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 16-20)…
Low pressure departs to the east while a warm front approaches from the west today. Lots of clouds will dominate with the best chance of sun breaks over the interior this morning and early afternoon. An episode of rain will cross the region with the warm front tonight and this will lead to a murky start for St. Patrick’s Day Thursday then a spring-like feel as we get into the warmer air at the surface. However, with cold air aloft and an approaching low pressure trough, rain showers and thunderstorms may develop in parts of the region during the afternoon and evening. A stronger cold front will push through the region from north to south on Friday with a few rain/snow showers then much colder air coming in for the weekend. We’ll be watching a storm approaching from the southwest by late in the weekend which will bring a threat of snow Sunday night, in the early hours of actual Spring (we’ve seen it before, nothing new here in New England).
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting back to NE.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Areas of fog. Lows upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of late-day rain showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs ranging from the upper 40s South Coast to lower 60s interior MA and southwestern NH. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy and windy. Chance of rain showers, eventually a few snow showers. Temperatures fall to 40s AM, 30s PM.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Clouding up. Chance of snow at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 21-25)…
Snow/mix possible to start March 21 then improving but windy and colder through March 22. Fair and milder to warmer March 24. Chance of rain or rain showers March 24 followed by fair weather again March 25 as we remain in a pattern of quick-moving systems.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 26-30)…
Still looking like a progressive pattern with up and down temperatures and quick-passing weather systems bringing precipitation threats.

187 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Thank you as always, TK, for the time you take to share your expertise. You have given us a wonderful home to learn and to play and to grow as a family.

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Someone asked me how much snow we have received so far this winter.They weren’t specific where but I will give them Boston. I tried looking it up but couldn’t find it.

    How much snow has Boston received so far this winter?

  7. Re-post from earlier:

    JP Dave says:
    March 16, 2016 at 7:12 AM
    This morning’s (6:30 AM) summary of the upcoming event:

    GIVEN THE TIME RANGE…JUST A SUBTLE CHANGE IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE ENERGY WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW EVENT VERSE A GLANCING BLOW OR EVEN A COMPLETE MISS OUT TO SEA. AT THIS POINT…WE WILL NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE. WE CAN SAY THAT A WARM/INLAND TRACK OF THIS STORM IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN A 50/50 LOW AND UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING ACROSS GREENLAND…THERE IS ONLY SO FAR WEST THIS STORM CAN GET.

    btw, if you are not familiar with the term 50/50 low as I was not, then click on this link
    to see an excellent write up by DT on this subject:

    http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/checklistImages/5050/50-50.htm

    1. Here is the latest 6Z DGEX model run, with description of the model first.

      NCEP Downscaled GFS by NAM Extension (DGEX) forecast. The DGEX is initialized by interpolating the 78-h operational NAM forecast to a smaller 12-km domain. A 78-h to 192-h forecast of the NMMB is made (same version that is running in the NAM), using the previous 6-h old GFS forecast for lateral boundary conditions.

      http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f120.gif

      This is a very powerful storm loaded with moisture.

      Now this certainly is NOT a model of choice for anyone, I post this to show
      that ALL solutions are still on the table and it is NOT necessarily out to sea.

      Wondering what the 12Z runs will show. The energy for this system is almost
      on shore, so the models “should” start to get a better handle on this.

          2. Best I can determine, here is where the energy
            for this system is as of 6Z this morning:

            http://imgur.com/JV0rpH9

            Based on that, better sampling should be available
            with the 12Z runs and CERTAINLY by tonight’s 0Z runs.

            Sorry, that’s the best I can do. I’m sure TK will have much more to add to this.

  8. Ocean influence holding strong in Reading with a stratus overcast and a touch of drizzle. And the Celtic music playing in my car combined with the weather makes me feel like I’m in Ireland.

  10. So once again the 0z models tick further out to sea….EURO, UKMET, and GFS were all out to sea with little impacts while the CMC grazes us. 6z GFS is back west and sideswipes us with a moderate snowstorm. Still many ensembles west of the operational runs as well.

    We wait and watch. Should have a better handle on this by tomorrow AM at this time. Though I think it is safe to say at this point that a rainstorm is not in the cards. Whatever falls, the predominant p-type would be snow whether we are dealing with a grazer and more direct impact.

  12. I realize this is the long range NAM but……..the 12z NAM is juiced and pretty far west with the energy diving out of the Rockies. It looks at hour 84 like it wants to take the storm right up the coast per the 6z DGEX that Dave posted earlier. Though I believe the DGEX is pretty much a long range extension of the NAM so that shouldn’t be a surprise. Nonetheless an interesting look. 6z GFS was trending a bit more in this direction as well…..we will see if it is onto something.

  13. Elliot Abrams is leaning on mostly ots. Says most models are going that way. As always we shall see.

  14. The speculation is fun, but I have a feeling with this one we won’t have a good handle until Friday at the earliest. Stakes are high but I think we get at least some snowfall. Measurable? Not sure. For any accumulation on the roadways its gonna have to come down hard for a while. Anything short of that will have little to no impact on the roadways.

    2. Depends on when it falls from the sky. Overnight and very early morning there will be an impact, but during the day there won’t. Timing is everything with late season storms.

      1. That’s not always true. March 29 1984 and April 6 1982, both major snowstorms, we’re daytime events.

        1. Darn I was going to say that. It was well prior to sunset on March 29 that the worst of the storm occurred. It certainly did, as Ace said, snow very hard. It was wet and the flakes were huge and it was intense.

    1. Hey did I mention it’s plenty cold enough. 🙂 just kidding sue

      Even he sounds like ots is very possibly, and he doesn’t give up ever. We shall c 🙂

      1. He clearly explains that there are many possibilities, including out to sea. And I have seen him “give up” on numerous occasions.

  16. When national weather folks say “northeast” I’m always perplexed as to how they could view a region with as much climate disparity as “the northeast.”

    It’s 66 and sunny in DC, heading to the mid to upper 70s

    It’s 45 and continued dismal in Boston, perhaps heading to the 50s

    It’s 34 and about to snow in Quebec city, temps dropping to the 20s by evening with 3-5 inches expected

  17. TK, you’re right (again), it can indeed snow – even powder snow as in April 1982 – and accumulate on road surfaces during daytime. I was generalizing when I said that daytime snows in late March/April tend not to accumulate on road surfaces.

  19. Tommorrow last day of work with visits and mosquito tick treatments. Then Antigua Friday to Tuesday then crazy go go go work starting Wednesday the 23rd. Finished our 350th visit today. 350 ahead of last yr. 🙂

        1. We’ll see if any of these projected storms pan out, but wouldn’t it be something if on the 50th anniversary of the March `56 storms we had several late-season storms.

          Active pattern appears to continue right into April. Most likely several days of cold rain showers at the coast in early April. Opening Day could be quite raw at Fenway. Of course, it often is.

  26. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=vis&inv=0&t=cur&region=ne

    Enjoying reading about the developments on the 12z model suite for the late weekend system.

    Also enjoying today’s visible satellite for the northeast.

    Lots of things, from the low clouds in eastern New England, clear skies in central New England and some decent cloud tops in western NY State with plenty of heavy, convective showers out by Buffalo.

    And wow, is it warm in the sunshine in the mid-Atlantic. I wish it weren’t getting cut off at the pass.

    1. Story of March and April most of the time: warmth getting cut off at the pass in New England. This time of year the differences in temperature and weather are significant across the “northeast.”

  27. Really a nice day overall today. Mix of sun and clouds and trucks says 52 degrees. Feels warmer than that.

      1. Indeed, not so great in Boston either. Admittedly I haven’t been outside in a few hours but it looks gray and cool.

        Charlie, having been to Providence (close to Attleboro) many times in recent years I often see a pretty substantial difference in temperature and even weather between Boston and Providence in March and April. Usually brighter and warmer where you are.

      2. Living within a few miles of coast seems to offer that kind of weather while just inland it’s very different. A matter of fact there are many times in spring when it’s in the 60’and 70’s here, and my wife says let’s take a ride to the beach, and I have to tell her it’s going to be miserable with likely a seabreeze or drizzle or be cloudy.

    2. The sun literally just poked through the clouds in Walpole for the first time today but just for a moment. Still damp and cool.

    1. Ah, so much for my latest post which says that in March it’s often “brighter and warmer” where Charlie resides (than in Boston).

  29. I wanted this storm a month ago. Not now. I can’t believe im saying this, but im rooting for this thing to go way OTS

    1. I’ll root right along with you. A few inches, yes. But we have no choice but to move and I am not in favor of pitching a tent in the snow and having all of my belongings dumped in the yard.

  31. Sun out brightly in Sudbury but there are still a lot of clouds around. Feels a bit warmer, too – not sure what the temp. is. But this time of year the sun is getting stronger anyway.

  32. By the way, my comment about the UKMET being a hit earlier is an understatement. Sub 980mb bomb with explosive deepening and a left hook towards us as it passes. Crushes a good part of New England. Cape flips to heavy rain with tropical storm winds.

    A mere 800 mile shift NW on the UKMET from its OTS on the 0z run.

    1. Very similar solution to the UKMET.

      Lesser accumulation on the Cape where there is a flip to rain.

      1. My cousin is coming to visit for 2 weeks from the United Arab Emirates friday and has never seen snow all of her life. It will be something if this storm happens! Mark do u know why this storm is getting pulled closer to the coast? I saw bernie’s video earlier and he mentioned if the trough is stronger or something like that it will be closer. I am no expert but I a wondering what the science behind it is

        1. I think it’s a lobe of the polar vortex which is dipping south over Hudson Bay that is helping to back the upper flow and attract the coastal closer to the coast.

          If you use instant weather maps, click ECMWF, 500 mb maps at 120 hrs for Canada and it’s easy to see the feature I described above.

        2. Overall trough placement is further west and higher heights off the Pacific coast. All the models made the same adjustment at their 12z runs.

  36. So, if that’s the low position at 120 hrs or 12z, which is the early morning, then the majority of this in this scenario would fall overnight ??? So, we wouldn’t lose much accumulation to daytime brightness.

  38. Bernie “new video coming. The snowstorm train will be in full force once everyone sees the Euro. As a always say, don’t get caught on every model run. New video coming.”

  39. Hang on for more variations the next day or 2.

    Working backwards on the 500mb flow in Canada to see what is sharpening up the trof over Hudson Bay, it appears the feature currently doing this is probably in the arctic north of Alaska. And I’m sure that’s a data starved area.

    1. Spring is in full bloom there. I noticed the Rose Garden was in bloom this morning as Obama made his Supreme Court nominee announcement.

      1. We are headed to the Virginia Beach area during spring vacation or that’s the current plan anyway. 🙂

        I hope the current warmth isn’t being all used up 🙂

  42. Kane, your cousin from the UAE has truly timed her trip to Boston to coincide with old man winter’s last hurrah (well, maybe last). First, the brisk temps on Friday afternoon and evening. Will feel quite cold to us, but certainly to anyone accustomed to desert heat. Then a chilly weekend followed by the possibility of snow and more briskness. It’ll warm up a bit during her stay but only briefly each time with raw a theme as we close out the month. Let me know if at one point she says “but I thought it was spring here.” Many a visitor from overseas has said that to me in March and April over the years, sometimes in astonishment at how raw and cold it can get.

    1. You are certainly right joshua, The weather here does not go by seasons, I told her 2 weeks ago sorry i Dont think u will ever see real snow when u come here, but that will all change. I am going to leave it as a surprise and won’t tell her. The weather there is in mid 80’s so we will see how she will adjust here! It’s suppose to be on the teens saturday night as well

      1. In spite of the cold she’ll like it, I think. Obviously being with family, but I’ve noticed that visitors really appreciate the seasonal variety Boston has to offer. Enjoying a hot chocolate in town on a brisk or even snowy March day is something many like a lot.

  43. Tom, you’re right. Variation in model runs is to be expected as data sampling of the energy source occurs over time. My guess is that because there is relative consistency across models we are likely to be hit by something. Whether it’s big or minor remains to be seen.

  44. There will be more variation, but not likely a whole lot more.

    The ECMWF snow is likely overdone.

      1. There is the slightest possibility it’s not overdone of course, as we’ve seen with Spring storms in the past. My feeling is that a good part of the region is going to get a significant snowfall. I am unsure of the exact timing and the details, and obviously the amounts, this far in advance. Too many opportunities for things to turn out different than the 12z runs have, but those opportunities are not all that strong. That is why I don’t think we’ll see all that much change from the current overall depiction.

        1. Any chance at all with the recent update that the snow
          maps are more accurate then previously? 😀

  45. Charlie… Your comments went to moderation because there was an error in your email address (one extra letter). It’s a WP thing.

  47. I just got out of a 2 1/2 hour meeting! UGH!! Yawn! Yawn!

    I snuck a peek at the Euro during the meeting. EUREKA!!!!

    Looks like the DGEX didn’t have such bad solution after all. In fact it was very much
    like the Euro.

    Hoist the blizzard watches. 😀 😀 😀

      1. I understand that. I mean it was as good as the Euro was, that is all. And I am surprised at that. But that’s what it showed.

  48. Here are your recent 12z ECMWF runs for comparison, valid for 12z Monday March 21…

    From the 12z run on Sunday:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016031312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

    From the 12z run on Monday:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016031412/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8.png

    From the 12z run on Tuesday:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016031512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

    From the 12z run today:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016031612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png

    Prediction for tomorrow’s 12z run: Slightly weaker and slightly further south.

    1. So….I know you are not one to throw out numbers this far in advance, but what is your feeling right now for Monday?

      1. My feeling (not official forecast) is that we’ll have snow that won’t just melt as it falls, that will have to be moved with shovels, plows, and possibly snow blowers, and may result in some school delays or cancellations, depending on timing (Sunday night and early Monday).

        In an “imperfect” pattern as has been the case most of the winter/snow season this is about as perfect a set-up as we can manage. It’s late, but not too late.

    1. Was this pre or post Euro? Curious

      I suppose it’s still on the table, but frankly I am more concerned
      that it backs a little more to the West and becomes not an inside runner, but
      a coastal hugger, bringing rain to all Eastern sections and snow up North
      and well to the West.

      1. Eric has concern for rain as well moving westward. Bernie is very much on the “all snow” track, however. I suspect still room for flip-flopping.

      2. The Euro was just coming out as he was creating the video. He did note that it was on board for a good storm for the northeast but that there is lots of time for the track to change.

  51. timing is a big unknown, it will be between sunday and Monday
    EURO… closest to the coast of the models 980mb storm traveling within the benchmark (40/70) Plenty cold for at least a moderate snowfall.
    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ECMWF&p=sfcmslp&rh=2016031612&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=

    Canadian and GFS are similar locations right near the benchmark different strengths when it makes its closest path
    Canaidan 968mb storm (lowest pressure of the storm shown by any of the models
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016031612/gem_mslpa_us_22.png
    The gfs goes from 987 to 979mb as it passes us.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016031612/gfs_mslpa_us_20.png

    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GGEM&p=sfc&rh=2016031612&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=
    similar to the gfs a tad further east.

    my point is that if the storm happens the way the models are predicting, we could have a very strong deepening low pressure, with increasing winds, heavy snow, and the possibility of some thunder snow.

    with snow maps I know it is early but its fun to look at
    gfs
    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=acc10snow&rh=2016031612&fh=126&r=ne&dpdt=
    GGem
    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GGEM&p=acc10snow&rh=2016031612&fh=156&r=ne&dpdt=
    Canadian
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016031612&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=371
    yet to get use to the fact that the models come out earlier lol… will post the 18z when it comes out, see if there is in variation in the models, Who wants to bet there is a change

    1. also with what TK said earlier, I believe the euro goes out to where the gfs and canadian are located or some where near that

  52. This is nuts!!! Now Harvey is saying it’s possible that this could be a coastal hugger and be rain along coastal plain, he says there’s time to iron details out. Talk about a flip flopping scenerio

    1. Tk with temps in the low to mid 40’s would an easterly or north easterly wind, is this a big determination in precip types? Thank you!!

        1. Upper levels very cold. If this reaches the intensity most models are predicting, it will make its own cold air and bring down those cold temps from above

  53. I have a feeling this storm will be a coastal hugger, and most of the Euro ensemble memebers have it more west

    1. if it is a hugger, but with a more northerly component to it, we will see areas east of i95 not have much but areas inland, will get some good snow, I might have to skip class on tuesday to head up north to go skiing 😉

        1. We’ll see. I actually made a bet with someone at work today that it was going to snow Monday. I didn’t really mean it though. Was just egging her on.

          Storm will graze at best. Late bloomer and too fast.

          The low winter totals will stay that way. One of those years that helps keep the averages in check after a year like the last.

    2. Yes, but did you see the Euro snow map Mark posted?
      Euro Crushes us with a solid 18-24 inches. 😀 😀 😀

  56. Wow, pounding hail in Coventry CT. Guess that cold air aloft is moving in. Tomorrow should be interesting!

    1. Cool. I hope that line makes its way to Worcester. Squall lines tend to break up where I live. See it all the time in the summer.

    1. I remember when it Dallas many years ago, it hailed the size of peas to dimes for 15 min’s as hard as I’ve ever seen precip fall, there was no damage, but there was 2 inches of ice pellets everywhere. It took about 3-4 hours for it to melt. I believe this was in 99, that same year I did see tennis ball size hail on ground, did not see it fall though.

      1. Last summer was dime to quarter size and did considerable damage to many cars and roofs. Amazing how something so small can do so much damage. Mac and I parked under a bridge on way home fro. NWH but daughters car still has dents. I know JPDs and others were damaged.

  60. Holy Cross basketball upsets Southern for first NCAA tourney win since 1953. Go Crusaders!

  61. There on quite a run and good for them getting an NCAA tournament win. I think the run ends when they play Oregon. With that said always a great accomplishment to get to the big dance.

  64. Potential snowstorm getting very little love from DT. If it was gonna hit the mid-Atlantic he would be all over it.

  65. Thanks TK! 🙂 When I told everyone at work today about the snow on Monday everyone was completely shocked and didn’t believe me LOL.

    1. That’s because many media folks wrote Winter off in late February, which is a huge and oddly repeated mistake. I still can’t figure that one out. It’s like they forget where we actually live.

        1. 30+ inches would fit right nicely within TK’s range of 25-35″. No doubt it would be the Maritimes that get clobbered rather than us. I would be curious as to how Nova Scotia has been dealing with El Niño this winter. Albany NY has only received 10.3″ for the season at last check.

  68. Wow, the EURO has an intense storm.

    I don’t have the ability to see snow amounts or the storms track when it passes closest by.

  69. On the EURO its a 997 low off the Carolinas at hour 96. At hour 120 its 969 low located far northern Maine area.

  71. Tweet from Ryan Maue
    ECMWF 00z w/blizzard on Monday for New England. Major snowfall from DC –> NYC -> Boston starting late Sun –> Mon

  72. From the wundermap it looks like the EURO takes the low right over the cape and 540 line comes up to Boston. I don’t know if any mixing issues but it is an intense storm.

    1. Which would you trust, the Euro or the GFS?

      The closer pass to the coast it what I was concerned about after the 12Z run
      yesterday.

  79. I know it’s good for any model to get an upgrade ….. but, with the EURO upgrade so recent, there really hasn’t been much chance to evaluate its upgraded performance. And, since it’s upgrade, this is the first setup of this particular kind. So, I do get a bit concerned about whether to buy it fully, especially when 50 miles in track error will mean a huge difference in accumulations.

    1. I guess I’ll feel better about track come the 12z runs on Saturday 🙂 🙂 🙂

  80. 6Z GFS snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016031706&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=120

    0Z CMC snowmap

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016031700/gem_asnow_neus_21.png

    6Z cmc precip map

    http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type_glb/2016031700/I_nw_EST_2016031700_104.png

    CMC is really backing off.

    We have extreme model divergence going on here.

    Euro and Ukmet, Strong and close to the coast.
    GFS and CMC weaker, off shore more
    FIM in the middle

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