Tuesday Forecast

177 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)…
A broad and complex low pressure area continues to drift through the region today with additional wet weather, though the heaviest rain is moving away slowly and what is left will be mostly lighter rain/drizzle today, becoming more intermittent with time. A break Wednesday between this departing system and an approaching warm front which may bring some wet weather Wednesday night. The warm air mass arrives for St. Patrick’s Day Thursday but an approaching cold front may trigger a few rain showers and even a thunderstorms that evening. That front and a secondary one, which may trigger a rain or snow shower Friday, will deliver a much colder air mass for the start of the weekend.
TODAY: Cloudy. Rain and drizzle becoming more intermittent with time. Areas of fog this morning. Highs in the 40s. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle early. Lows in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of late-day rain showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows in the 40s. Highs 55-65.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Chance of a rain or snow shower. Lows 25-35. Highs in the 40s but falling temperatures later.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 20-24)…
Cold with a chance of snow or mix late March 20 ending March 21 depending on development and track of low pressure both upper level and surface. Dry, colder March 22 and milder March 23. Chance of rain March 24.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 25-29)…
Looking like a progressive pattern with up and down temperatures and quick-passing weather systems bringing precipitation threats.

177 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. JPD….in response to your question to Charlie about Antigua. The island you can see off Marigot is Anguilla. Took many trips to St. Martin/St. Maarten and have some great memories from there. 🙂

    1. Sue, thanks for the clarification. I knew it was an “A” island.

      Yes, we could see it as we ate lunch at a veranda cafe, ” Bistro de la Mer”. Apparently it is still there and in business.

      Thoroughly enjoyed St. Martin.

    1. Not quite sure what exact timing would be just yet but favoring late Sunday to early Monday as it stands this far out.

  7. re: weekend storm

    0Z Euro says SEE YA, NICE KNOWING YOU. GOOD-BYE and OUT TO SEA!!!

    I can’t believe how much this has changed!!!

    Now we have to see if it starts drifting back Westward OR even totally disappears. 😀 😀 😀

      1. As of this morning. Could be closer next run OR farther out OR
        no storm at all. Who the bleep knows.

  9. Checking the teleconnections …..

    It seems the NAO and PNA are “behaving” if you will, as far as how they were predicted to be evolving.

    The AO seems to be the one that looks more positive than it was predicted to be. As you can see by the 7 and 10 day outlooks in the link below, the AO is more positive than was predicted. A more positive AO tends to keep lower pressure closer to the arctic, tends to invite less meridional flow and more zonal flow.

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

    I’m just throwing this out there. Perhaps that’s the trend towards a more suppressed storm track south and east of us ??

  10. Thank you, TK.

    Well, I feel a little badly for the tourists from overseas who have come to Boston this week to take advantage of cheap flights. I’ve seen plenty of Irish and Englishmen and women in town, experiencing the joys of the kind of weather they always get back home. I guess they’re accustomed to it, but Boston looks a whole lot better bathed in sun.

    I do think we’re in for a lengthy period of mostly unsettled weather. We can’t rule out snow chances based on a couple of model runs. We also can’t count on them. Anything can happen on this roller coaster as we still have plenty of cold locked in over eastern Canada and a fresh pool of rather cold air coming at the lower 48 from central Canada. All this points to the typical spring clash between warmer air to our south and colder air to our north, a cool ocean (though not as cool as it usually is this time of year), a parade of complex weather systems including the one we’re in. Sun will take a back seat, I fear, for a good portion of this murky period.

    1. If they’d come to Boston in mid March looking for sun and warmth then they got the wrong Boston. 🙂

  11. My concern for any possible snow threat is not coming from model runs and surface features. It’s more complex than that and has to do with the overall hemispheric pattern as well as things going on much further away.

    1. Meaning concern that there STILL is a SNOW threat?
      OR
      concern that the SNOW threat is WANING in a hurry?

      Curious to know which.

      Many thanks

  12. Anyone who has access to the EURO could confirm if this tweet from Anthony Siciliano is correct or false.
    The signals continue…The new run of the Euro EPS Control now with a major Winter storm here on Sunday

    1. I have access to the full Euro, BUT not the EPS Control.

      Perhaps TK has access to that and can respond.

      I viewed Bernies video. There is plenty of room for this to still
      be a major snow storm.

  13. According to another tweet I am seeing from Jim Colman
    Nice storm signal on the GEM and EC 00z ensembles for Sunday night.

  14. JJ, I don’t have the control either but with respect to the Euro ensemble mean, it is right over the benchmark as Dave said so Siciliano is by all means correct that a major storm is still very much in play. For that matter, the Euro operational still has a monster storm and while it is out to sea, it is not out to sea by much and still grazes SE MA. There are several GFS members well west of the operational run as well.

    Hard to lock in any solution at this point when the energy responsible for this storm is out over the middle of the Pacific. One small tweak in the data initialization parameters, and the model comes up with a drastically different solution like many of the ensembles are showing.

    It is going to be a rollercoaster ride tracking this thing this week….

  17. Thank u tk,

    I’ll be honest I’d take a day like today or mid Jan 10 days a week and 5 times on sun 🙂

    Looking more and more likely even if it does snow, it won’t amount to much if any IMO, really looking like a raw spring pattern over next couple weeks with a few mild interludes mixed in to finish March. Stay dry!! 🙂

    1. Can’t even think about amounts until I know it is going to snow somewhere. Wide range of possibility on table at this point.

  18. I’m going to use my snow shovel 2 more times this season……

    Of course one of them might be to scrape caked-on leaves off the catch basin cover in the street. 😉

  19. Something for the back burner…

    Many have already forecast a big time Atlantic tropical season for 2016. It may not be the case at all, even if we head into a La Nina, which btw may be delayed.

    More later…

    Going to be away from phone and computer much of the midday.

  21. Assuming we get the benchmark track, will the snow be wet or at least somewhat fluffy? I am curious as to what the temp profiles would be…at/near 32F or somewhat below like mid-upper 20s?

    1. Wetter is more likely. You need anomalous cold air for fluff in March and April. Pretty rare to get the entire column cold enough long enough for fluff as happened on April 6 1982.

  22. Well, the 12z Gfs certainly has the storm, but it is just off shore. A biggie too.
    Really needs to be watched.

  23. 500 mb on the GFS ……

    There’s nothing really digging in the Great Lakes area to attract the coastal low closer to the coast. That missing component of digging in the form of a strong 500 mb low (maybe it’s the polar vortex??) is WAY to the north over Hudson Bay. If that thing could sink further south and west, then perhaps in response, the upper flow would back more along the east coast.

    1. And of course, later in that run, that 500 mb low does sink further south and causes the flow to sharpen significantly, which then causes a warm inside runner.

    1. Beautiful plant and flower. May be my favorite tropical flower. I assume it bloomed inside, or your Mom lives in a warmer climate. Hibiscus does poorly in cold weather. And cold to an hibiscus can mean 40s.

    1. On instantweathermaps, the Euro is out to 48 hours. Won’t be long now. 😀
      Of course it will be longer still for the service I have to have all of the maps
      available.

      1. Good. I didn’t compare. Didn’t even look at the UKMET before
        today.

        Thank you.

        That map is available at Earl Barker’s Foreign model page.
        I like it because one can get the 500 mb chart, whereas you cannot at MeteoCentre. (not out that far, only to 72 hours)

  27. So far, the Euro shows a positively tilted 500mb with a surface low on
    the coast of South Carolina at 120 hours. It would have to dig considerably, else
    it is OTS.

      1. Yep, looks like a general 2-4″. I say sideswipe compared to what it could be if we get a direct hit.

        1. Oh, I understand. Just busting a little.

          Do you remember that joke,”You’re Grandmother is on the roof”?

          I think we might be looking at that situation here.

          As Bernie calls it, “The Windshield Wiper Effect”.
          This way and that way and back this way again…

          Add it all up and it will be a DIRECT HIT.
          Well maybe not. But you know what I am saying.

  30. 12z run of EURO today is down quite a bit from yesterdays 12z run.
    This a watcher for sure.

    1. what do you mean by down quite a bit???
      Down from what? It is certainly much closer.
      You mean it is not quite as strong?

      1. I think JJ is comparing 12z yesterday to 12z today. I believe 12z yesterday showed a stronger benchmark system (then 18z had it going out to sea). 12z today shows a weaker non-benchmark system.

          1. 12z Euro had 1-2 feet yesterday across the interior whereas today it is more offshore with 2-4″. However, today’s 12z is much closer than the 0z run which was completely out to sea. Safe to say the models are still struggling with the storm’s evolution.

            BTW, the Euro does have 6z and 18z runs which are available in Europe – we just don’t get to see them here.

            1. Yes, I knew that.
              Yup we are watching it evolve.

              I wish I could say.

              I keeping thinking about what Tk has
              been saying that the teleconnections are
              favorable and this could be the best set
              up all Season.

              Will it happen? Who knows, but we’re going to find out soon enough.

        1. Ahhh, so what you really meant is that it didn’t show
          as much snow for you. Ok now I’ll know what you
          mean. 😀

  33. Here is your March madness of weather with this tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan. Will see if this pans out
    Thunderstorms, gusty winds, 60s, and even the chance for a nor’easter. This is a jam packed forecast. Lots to discuss!

  34. I’m worried I’m going to have to eat my words about calling the Monday system OTS. Not ready to back away from it quite yet though. It may not quite get picked up in time.

    On another front, I received some exciting news today: I’ve been selected to participate in a summer internship program with our friends at the NWS in Taunton. I’ll be working on a focused project as well as some job shadowing and visiting a couple of important local facilities (Northeast River Forecast Center in Taunton and the CWSU in Nashua). Can’t wait to get started there, should be a great learning opportunity. Life really flies by, hard to believe I’m almost halfway through college.

    2. Indeed that sounds awesome.
      I am sure hoping you provide us with some insights and early notice of events.
      perhaps event the “T” word and I don’t mean thunderstorms. 😀

    4. It will be a great experience. Congrats to you! Building a foundation for your future and doing something you will enjoy. Can’t get a much better combo. 🙂

    1. Great video as always, but you know what? He wasn’t telling us anything
      we didn’t already know. 😀

  36. JJ, in response again to your earlier post, apparently the 0z Euro “control” run took this thing right over the benchmark with a 966mb bomb, dropping to 962mb in the Gulf of Maine. In terms of sensible weather, this would yield blizzard conditions and 1-2 feet of snow across SNE. This is what Siciliano was tweeting about. Don’t know the track record of the EPS control runs.

    I am also reading that the 0z EPS had 8 ensemble members with a sub 970mb low in the Gulf of Maine and a few in the 950’s! Haven’t seen the 12z ensembles yet.

    This thing has the potential to be a gorilla, and the more it amplifies, the more the negative tilt, and the more it gets pulled closer to the coast.

    1. Yes, and the more likely it becomes a GORILLA!!!

      I could see this thing cutting right across the Cape.

      We shall see.

      I’m beginning to get excited and it’s only Tuesday PM. 😀 😀 😀

      1. Agree.
        I don’t see it cutting through SNE, ie RI or CT.
        However, I could see it cutting over the canal or the Cape somewhere. Depending on the thermal profiles, a canal
        crossing would likely mean rain for the coastal plain. Profiles would have to be perfect for it to snow in Boston with that track.
        Prefer a pass between Nantucket and the benchmark.

        We shall see.

  37. Great news on the internship, WxWatcher!

    JPDave, I don’t smoke (though I pretended to furtively as a teenager for a year). What I meant was the Euro 0z and not 18z. I believe the Euro 0z had the system but well out to sea, as Mark pointed out.

  42. It’s still not about model details. It’s about ballpark. There has been very little consistency in any models that are worth anything. It’s the overall set up we’re looking at here, not positions of lows and how much snow is being cranked out. Sure we can look at that, but at this stage it doesn’t mean anything.

    For example, yesterday’s 12z Euro had lots of snow for parts of SNE. Today’s not so much. I already mentioned that yesterday’s Euro was likely depicting a low that was too strong and a trough that was too amplified. Today is an attempted correction. It’s not done, and there is not a distinct trend either. Models don’t know how to resolve all of the various information and short waves in a pattern like this. They just basically “make stuff up” each run. It’s just a computer program. You have to look beyond that as a meteorologist to figure out, as Larry Glick would have said “the story behind the story”…

      1. Let me paraphrase TK………………”the setup here is excellent for a major east coast winter storm. Ignore the individual shifts of the models from run to run. Wax your shovels and buy your bread and milk now because we are going to get smoked”

  43. 12z Euro Ensembles – approx. half of the 51 members “crush SNE with a benchmark track” per Ryan Hanrahan of NBC30 on the American Weather forum. “Definite clustering WEST of the ensemble mean”

  44. Taunton Discussion

    SUN NGT/MONDAY …

    STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE GIVEN TIME RANGE HOWEVER THE UKMET NOW SUPPORTS THE ECMWF OF SUB 990 MB LOW TRACKING NEAR THE BENCHMARK WITH COLD AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THUS NOW ALL 3 DETERMINISTIC MODELS /GFS-EC-UKMET/ HAVE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT HERE. DID LOWER GUID TEMPS GIVEN THE INCREASED RISK OF PRECIP.

    1. Lol might as well stop reading after time range, just wasted words and discussion plus too much inconsistency. It’s still Tuesday for peeps sake.

  45. Drizzle taking forever to taper. The low levels are juiced and if it takes a while to get the NW wind in to dry things out tonight, some dense fog may form, so be on the lookout for that. It should be gone by dawn.

    Tomorrow is not that bad a day though it may start with lingering low cloudiness again depending on the ability of the NW wind to push everything out of here. By midday and early afternoon partial sun might send temps well into the 50s. By late day though we should be solidly overcast ahead of a warm front and this front is going to bring some chilly rain tomorrow night.

    Thursday, otherwise known as St. Patrick’s Day, will end up being quite a Spring-like day for the end of Winter as there should be enough sun to send temps well into the 60s in some areas. Strong polar cold front drops toward the region late in the day but stays north. It’s a pre-frontal trough that may trigger showers and even thunderstorms.

    Friday, the actual front comes through with rain to snow showers (no accumulation). North winds pick up and temps fall during the afternoon.

    Saturday, dry and cold. A “breeder day”.

    I’m not going to try to guess details of the Sunday/Monday storm threat at this point. I’ve been following this possibility for a long while now since the first hints showed up of a pattern shift and a potential East Coast winter storm threat about 2 weeks ago. And even seeing something that far out doesn’t mean one can know what is going to happen down to the letter, or at least make a reasonably accurate guess at such details, until within 48 hours. All I can say right now is that this will be one of the best set-ups we’ve had in a while as far as potential is concerned. Will everyone see snow? I have no idea yet. Will the storm miss? Possibly. Will the storm make a left hook and go inside? Probably not. If we’re going to miss it, it’s likely because it’s heading too far south. Will there be a rain/snow line? You’re guess is as good as mine, but there will probably be one involved at some point in the storm, should we actually be impacted directly. Could the entire region be mostly snow? That scenario is on the table.

    The ECMWF ensemble has me concerned about significant impact, but in NO WAY am I overly worried about getting totally slammed. I’m just in “stay on guard” mode at this point, knowing what is showing up on reliable guidance and given past history of late winter events toward the end of El Nino episodes.

    1. All Ik know is whatever happens I totally will miss?. #antigua!!!!! 🙂
      Lots of work starting Wednesday!!! 🙂 whatever is a ok with me!!!!

  46. 18z GFS operational has a powerful 981mb storm SE of the benchmark, bombing down to 972mb south of Nova Scotia. Largely OTS but Cape and Nantucket get into some snow/wind action.

  47. Chris M funny stuff get your bread And milk lol. Great stuff!! It’s all being funny 🙂

  48. TK – Earlier you mentioned that La Niña may be delayed. Does this mean that Winter 2016-17 will not get off to as fast and furious as you originally thought?

  49. At least now that an inside runner track is now off the table, we can now concentrate on either a benchmark or OTS track…50/50 at this point. Wanna bet there will be lots of flip-flopping the rest of this week? 😉

    1. I think it at least gets back to benchmark.
      My concern as I said before is that it passes over the canal or Cape.

      1. If it passes over benchmark still not convinced coastal plain would get much snow. Mix, yes. The cold is not especially cold. If the storm intensity is there when it gets to the benchmark, different story.

        If storm passes over the canal, snow up north and a little in the interior but all rain at the coast, I think.

        1. The upper levels will likely be very cold with this one and a track like that would be mainly snow over most areas.

  50. I am mobile now, else I would post a link.
    18z DGEX model shows a bomb
    Just inside the benchmark. Very heavy
    Snow in Eastern sections. A monster.

    2. 12-18″ for eastern MA verbatim on that run and 3-6″ west of Worcester.
      But who’s looking at numbers at this point? 🙂

  51. TK, thanks for the explanation regarding the upper levels of the atmosphere. This is where my reading of the models is inadequate. My lack of a natural science background hurts, too.

    Much too early of course to draw parallels, but as I recall the talk prior to 1 April 1997 referred to very cold upper levels of the atmosphere which changed the cold rain to heavy wet snow.

    1. Yup. You are so correct.
      If one knew anything at all about the weather, it was a no brainer that it would be a big snowstorm. None whatsoever
      Loved that storm.

    1. And the reasoning for that is?

      It may be true, or may not be. But I want to know what makes you think this today.

        1. A valid answer in some aspects, but the degree of change can vary greatly and there are enough factors in play right now to sway me to think not all that much more change will take place. However, to be fair, we’re 5 days away from the beginning of the event, should it take place here, so indeed changes are still quite possible. That is why I was adamant about not going into any real detail above. 🙂

          Some may call it hedging. I call it admitting that I don’t know enough to say I know for sure. 😀

  53. If it snows so be it, but it has to snow a decent amount to cause egg on mets faces, this is it!!!! I find it very exciting!!! If it snows an inch or 2 and doesn’t accumulate on most surfaces then most mets were right

      1. Look at it this way. Worst case scenario we get a major snowstorm. The pattern is progressive so even if we have some below normal temps going into April, we’ll melt that snow very fast. There will be some mild weather right after a cold shot early next week. The pattern going forward, though potentially active and a bit colder (versus normal) than it has been, favors outside work in the longer term. Think of it more as a rain delay in a baseball game that just slows it down for a short bit.

  54. NCEP rather bullish on snow in SNE Monday, even mentioning deformation bands and lower elevation snow!

    EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
    1200 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016

    VALID 12Z FRI MAR 18 2016 – 12Z TUE MAR 22 2016

    …SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK…

    …OVERVIEW…
    UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN A STATE OF FLUX THROUGH THE MEDIUM
    RANGE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE WEST COAST PUSHES
    EASTWARD AND FLATTENS. DETAILS IN THE EAST CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITH
    EACH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE RUN, BUT THE MAJORITY/CONSENSUS
    STILL SUPPORT A DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST SUN-MON
    (SUNDAY IS THE EQUINOX).

    ACROSS THE EAST —
    THE 15/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE
    UTILIZED THROUGH DAY 5 (SUNDAY) — TO TRACK THE MIGRATION OF THE
    INTENSIFYING COASTAL SYSTEM FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO NOVA SCOTIA
    — WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION EAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON/AROUND THE
    21/06Z TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
    WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND SNOWFALL
    POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NEW ENGLAND HEADING INTO
    MONDAY MORNING.

    2. I’m glad they are confident enough to go into all of that this far out, but I say it’s still a bit too early to anticipate such detail. That chatter 5 days away is better for intra-office versus letting it out to the public.

  55. So let’s back it up a bit…before we get too excited about potential winter weather, we have a scenario coming up for the evening of St. Pat’s Day that could produce some decent thunderstorms, even a risk of hail. There is going to be a batch of very cold air above some very mild air at the surface and an approaching trough. In weather relativity, it’s going to be like bringing a cold front into a hot humid air mass, just in the “March Scale” versus the mid summer one, with the added ingredient of pretty chilly air above. That means an unstable atmosphere.

          1. Texas seems to be a magnet for all kinds of extreme weather. There are times I think Mother Nature doesn’t like it.

    1. Tornado watch and several severe t-storm warnings out in that area. Half dollar sized hail and 70 mph winds with some of them. Should be interesting when this comes through Thursday PM though we shouldn’t see anything to that degree!

      1. Head up up toward chicago. What happens when storms hit the lake at night? Do they weaken or strengthen ?

    1. DID you look at the 6Z GFS????

      That is Not trening OTS. Some of the 0Z runs did, yes indeed.

      Let’s see what the 12Z runs say. I’m guessing a HIT.

      We shall see.

      1. 6Z DGEX model.

        http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f120.gif

        We CANNOT yet say that this storm is OUT TO SEA. Plain and simply it can’t be said at this time. Could it go out to sea? Of course it can. Could it be a MAJOR snowstorm for much of the region? You bet it could. Stay tuned.

        I anxiously await the 12Z runs for the latest information.

    2. There is no trend.
      Yesterday, there was a shift in guidance from a large spread that included inside runners and over-headers to offshore tracks, some of them hits and some misses. Today, the models have generally remained in this ballpark. Many of the operational runs are south with a miss or side-swipe. Many of the ensembles are closer. It is unwise to even come close to writing off a storm threat at this point.

  60. This morning’s (6:30 AM) summary of the upcoming event:

    GIVEN THE TIME RANGE…JUST A SUBTLE CHANGE IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE ENERGY WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW EVENT VERSE A GLANCING BLOW OR EVEN A COMPLETE MISS OUT TO SEA. AT THIS POINT…WE WILL NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE. WE CAN SAY THAT A WARM/INLAND TRACK OF THIS STORM IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN A 50/50 LOW AND UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING ACROSS GREENLAND…THERE IS ONLY SO FAR WEST THIS STORM CAN GET.

    btw, if you are not familiar with the term 50/50 low as I was not, then click on this link
    to see an excellent write up by DT on this subject:

    http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/checklistImages/5050/50-50.htm

    2. A very good explanation. I hope folks read it. Was just talking about this last night with a forecaster buddy (not DT).

  62. Too close for comfort with that low pressure system.
    Before we get there MAY have some non severe storms tomorrow.

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