Monday Forecast

171 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 14-18)…
Broad low pressure area drifts northeastward through the region today and Tuesday with wet weather, mainly rain that may start as a sleet/snow mix in some interior areas later today, then a tapering off of rain during Tuesday. The midweek period will be unsettled as some additional disturbances move through the region with a broad trough in place. A couple cold fronts may cause a rain or snow shower Friday as cold air begins to move in.
TODAY: Cloudy. Rain develops mid to late afternoon from southwest to northeast, may start as a mix of sleet and snow especially higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast with rain, mostly spotty and light evening, more widespread and locally moderate to heavy overnight. Temperatures steady upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind E 10-20 MPH, strongest near the coast with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Spotty mist and light rain afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle early. Chance of light rain late-day or early night. Lows 35-45. Highs 45-55.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 35-45. Highs in the 50s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Chance of a rain or snow shower. Lows 25-35. Highs in the 40s but falling temperatures later.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 19-23)…
Fair and colder March 19. Unsettled with variable temperatures March 20-21 with rain/mix/snow all possible. Clearing, cold, windy March 22. Fair and milder March 23.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 24-28)…
Up and down temperatures. A few systems pass through with threats of precipitation as the pattern is unsettled.

171 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Thanks for your answer re mosquito control last night. I suspect you didn’t see the question re how long it lasts or if it is a monthly application. We are thinking of treating this year.

      1. I’m sorry, it last about a month ” if we get lots and lots of rain then shorter duration

        1. Thanks, Charlie. I have to look into it more. I like that you use organic but I am not sure what happens if neighbors do not treat.

  4. Good morning and thank you, TK. I also am feeling DST. Wasn’t tired last night when the clock said I should have been and am tired this morning when I shouldn’t be. What a conundrum. Seems as if there is some consideration to our mirroring Canadian time.

  6. According to the Mt. Washington FB page, they are expecting more showers tonight. My brother in Weare, NH, thought they might get some snow today/this evening but then it would be erased by rain. Seems to be the story of that area this year.

  7. Sleeting hard in Coventry CT and 38 degrees. Definitely a winter feel this am!

    0z Euro made a significant shift east with the Sunday/Monday system if you didn’t catch my earlier post. Coastal track with heavy snow for the interior and not too far off at all from the GFS solution. looks like a potent system.

      1. It looks like a snow to rain back to snow scenario for much of the interior of SNE on that run. The heaviest snow (6″+) is NW of s line from BDL to northern Worcester county with 3-6″ inside of that and dropping to very little along the coast. I am mobile right now but will post some maps when I get to my competer a bit later, if Dave doesn’t first!

    2. Indeed! Still A rain event on the coastal plain, but 2-3 inches front and/or back end for Boston. 18+ inches up North.

      It continues to evolve. So far coastal plain escapes its wrath.

  8. The potential of this storm system is the reason why i held off from doing any kind of yard clean-up this past weekend. It’s hard enough work as it is and the prospect of doing it twice didn’t appeal to me.

    1. Many including myself have done spring cleanup I can guarantee I’m not Doing it again. That potential has rain for us, snow well inland. Really no suprise. A traditional early spring coastal rain, and well inland snows. Plus my pools opening up the weekend of April 9th. Enjoy am

  9. If this state goes to Atlantic Time, sunrises would be as late as 8:14 am during the first half of January. We need to seriously consider the consequences. Many would be not only be leaving school and work in the dark, but on arrival as well.

    This would be even more stupid than DST itself.

  10. The ratio of a Jack O’Lantern’s circumference to its diameter is Pumpkin Pi.
    Happy π Day!
    3.14!

  11. Link to Dr. Cohen’s blog.

    http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    excerpts

    However, the PV lobe over Europe is predicted to drift westwards and eventually over eastern North America. With the eastern North American lobe of the PV predicted to become the dominant PV lobe coupled with northerly flow should allow temperatures to first cool over Canada and eventually the Eastern United States (US) starting next week.

    Therefore, the negative phase of the AO should be favored well into April as well. However, given the lateness of the PV disruption, I remain uncertain how well the current PV disruption will follow the paradigm established for mid-winter. Also a negative AO in April does not have the same impact across the mid-latitudes as it does in January and a snowstorm in January becomes a cold rain in April.

      1. He hasn’t backed off the pattern change. He’s adjusted the expected impact based on time of year.

  12. Holy moly!!!! 1st tick farm of the year, got to be the earliest I’ve ever seen, be alert out there

  16. In the short and medium term spring looks like it often does this time of year; hesitant to unfurl its banner. This is why I always take spring predictions in late February from the various media with a huge jar of salt. Basically all media had the northeast in the warm to very warm sector from March through May. March began cold but quickly transitioned to warm and is now at or near average and looks to go below average next week. My guess is in aggregate March will be above average temperature-wise, but not especially warm overall. April may, however, turn out colder than average. Certainly the first two weeks look to be a hefty dose of New England (coastal) raw. I realize this is based on long-range models and there’s uncertainty associated with that. Of course, beyond mid April it’s anyone’s guess what spring will bring. Would anyone really be surprised to see an 8 week period of frequent clouds, frequent showers, 40s and 50s with occasional teasers thrown in, followed by 80s and 90s starting in mid to late May right through August. I know I wouldn’t. That’s par for the course around here.

    1. Indeed, TK is excellent. Also explains very well so that novices and professionals alike can understand.

      Charlie, good luck with your spring work. I’m glad for you that it’s a much easier task than last year.

  21. Just peeked at the 12z GFS …..

    I’m afraid to look at snow projections ….. unless the boundary layer is too mild.

    Maybe I’ll peak anyway 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. ah ha …. thanks Mark !

      Intensifying storm with a great track.

      Must be a borderline boundary layer closer to the coast.

      1. If this happens, TK deserves a medal. He predicted this at least 10 days ago.

        While we did not get a storm during the 27-29 February window – TK thought we would – there was a pretty big storm during that period about 300+ miles north of here. Had PV played ball in New England towards the end of February, we would have had a major storm then.

        1. Agree, this period around the first few days of spring has looked interesting for some time now. The teleconnections have been depicting a great setup for the past couple of weeks. The question was – will it all come together? Looks like we have our storm now but the outcomes in SNE will depend on track and rate of intensification of the storm. There will definitely be cold air nearby to work with.

  23. Nice benchmark track – really bombs out once it hits the Gulf of Maine. Down to 975 mb there yielding blizzard conditions with 1-2 feet of snow in Maine and the Maritimes.

  28. Looking more and more and more interesting for Sunday.

    Now we have to wait another hour or so for the Euro.

  29. Moderate sleet still in Framingham. I thought it was trying to change over but it is loud on the windows and skylights.

    2. It just started sleeting here in Sudbury a few mins. ago. Didn’t know ’til I heard it on the windows. Looks like tiny bits of hail on the ground.

      Ok, I think it’s turning to rain now.

  32. Started here at the office in Roxbury. Looks and sounds like RAIN. I don’t see or hear
    any sleet as of yet. Just started.

  34. Its going to take me a week to get used to these new times on the models 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Sure as depicted. Do you honestly think that is the FINAL outcome right there
      in that run which is 6+ days out???? Seriously?

      This is a potent system, destined to give up North a ton of snow, unless
      the final outcome is still a bit more to the East. We shall see.

      Snow map in a moment. 😀

    1. I do Dave, I think it has a good handle, not bc I don’t want snow, but really think Boston and providence and all places In between r looking at a decent
      rainstorm.

          1. I agree and also could be wrong. I’m just having a hard time going against what the trend has been.

  41. There is something still mixed in with the rain. Could be sleet, but I SWEAR
    I saw a few wet snowflakes. 😀

  42. I look to be in the jackpot on that run of 12z EURO
    Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Euro and GFS quite intriguing for the weekend. A snowstorm is a possibility here in New England

  43. Wow, what a bomb on the 12z Euro. Big increase in interior snow totals over the 0z run. Watch out if that thing ticks east!

    1. That IS a CONCERN. CLEARLY it has been trending more and more Eastward over the past several days. Does it mean that will happen? Of course not, BUT it has to be monitored. This system looks to be loaded, wherever it tracks.
      If it ends up being SNOW, watch out.

      More runs to watch ahead.

    2. Winter’s down for the 8 count, and the referee’s about to say 8. Question is what will winter do? Stay down, or stagger to his feet and land a right hook? Stay tuned.

  44. Mosquitoes ought to run for cover, according to latest models. Looks like TK may be right again about temps dipping into the upper 20s at night next week. That won’t kill off the entire population, but it won’t make them happy, either.

  45. Vicki – regarding timing for this storm, the Euro keeps it dry Sunday PM and focuses the bulk of the storm on Sunday night/Monday.

  46. If I am not mistaken, we have yet to have a true benchmark storm. They have been either cutters, inside runners or (most recently) OTS. I would like to think that our time for a benchmark is due.

    2. True. We’ve either had OTS tracks that give us a glancing blow at best, or storms have traversed far northern NE after crossing the lakes. We haven’t had benchmark storms or coastal huggers, or even inside runners that would give the coast rain, the interior a mix, and north country snow.

  47. 12z Euro has a follow-up system on Day 10 / Thursday the 24th as well. More of an overrunning event but enough for 3-6″ to the north of the boundary that sets up and where it stays all snow.

  48. New Euro is great so far. I have noticed it has a bit of CMC-itis when it comes to the larger storms. It’s tending to deepen them too rapidly and pull them too far west. They’ll fix that.

  49. It will be springter here if the latest EURO run verifies with two POTENTIAL accumulating snow events.

        1. NO, March 1956 featured three (3), that is 3 count em, 3 MAJOR snowstorms one after the other, with one of
          them coming on 3/21. YES this was for the general Boston area, including the City. I lived in Millis at the time and
          we got hammered. I was 9 years old and the snow was
          TOO DEEP for me to walk in it.

  51. Now I don’t want to be disagreeable but I look a the euro and it’s a rainstorm for the 20th, am I missing something g??

    1. Yes, for one run of one model, a rainstorm for the coastal plan for the 20th-21st. However, this started as a lakes cutter and has been trending east. It’s still 6 days away. All we’re saying is even though this run says rain for Boston-PVD, its possible wintry precip gets even into those areas. The April Fool’s Day storm was showing the same thing a few days out, a potent rainstorm. We all know how that turned out.

      1. Exactly, and that is why we cannot become complacent!
        Sure, it could very well be a rainorama, however, it would not
        take too much of a shift to bring a potent snowstorm even
        to the I95 corridor. Therefore, stay tuned for future model runs.
        Bernie should be preparing videos soon. 😀

    2. Yeah, that fact that it is a monster that is dropping 1-2 feet of snow just NW of us, and it is ticking further east with each run. Not to mention it is the best setup we have had all winter for a nor’easter. Oh yeah, and we are still 6 days away….. 🙂

      1. Right, I was referring to just that summary of the highlights. I believe there is more on the ECMWF website itself if you click on the link at the top of the twitter page.

  53. 12z Euro ensembles look very similar to the operational. Usually a good sign that the model has the right idea.

    1. I was wondering bc I’m looking at the euro and it’s all rain, I thought I was looking at the wrong one.

        1. If you trust ECMWF snowfall 7 days in advance…
          It has a very, very poor track record.

  55. Here on March 14 it’s too early to know what the result will be when it comes down to detail. That goes without saying. You may have a feeling one way or another but you can’t say “Model X is out to lunch” with the reasoning that it’s just too soon to know and then say “Model Y is likely right” with the reasoning that it has the solution you want. That’s not how meteorology works. 🙂

    I’m very well aware that the Sunday/Monday threat can range anywhere from an all out snowstorm for all areas to a rain event for everyone to anything in between. The bottom line is, the threat zone and time frame was targeted a while back as being legitimate and we’ll just continue to follow it.

  57. JR has the coldest scenario with a “Wintry Mix” and a high of 36F.

    Harvey has snow, rain, both or OTS…not convinced of anything yet.

    Eric has mostly rain and a high of 40F.

    1. Just simply too early for details, and since the station demands a 7-day forecast, they have to put “something” there…

      1. Harvey is a lot like you TK. He takes his time unlike other mets who try to make a “final call” several days out.

        1. A final call for a storm threat more than 72 hours in advance for a professional meteorologist screams both arrogance and ignorance, especially when the public is depending on you.

  58. Best for snow lovers not to look at the 18z GFS. And I agree with what it’s saying. Big hint as well in the 12z UKMET. I think that model is in command right now. In other words, the “storm” we’re tracking likely won’t be a storm at all. Lack of phasing/split flow, the curse of the early winter pattern, dooms us again to close out the winter. Fitting, right 🙂

  59. Oh look! Now the 18z GFS has no storm at all! Storm cancelled! Winter over!

    We’re going to see a host of solutions, as we have all Winter, leading up to next weekend.

    Keep in mind, this is the first GFS solution with “no storm” except several days ago.

    1. You beat me to it.

      IF the Euro loses it tonight, then I buy it. Right now that 18Z GFS is
      worth about as much as a tin can, imho. We shall see.

    2. I honestly feel like winter has been over for a month now. It’s nearly impossible for it to be really cold and snowy now.

  60. The NWS in their Forecast Discussion went with 50% pops for Sun night and as opposed “likely” pops in order to give some weight to the UKMET and some of the GFS/Euro ensemble members which are showing an out to sea solution. IMO, the weaker/un-phased/OTS scenario appears to be the greater risk at this time to not seeing any snow than an inland runner solution. Though of course anything is on the table at 6 days out. One thing for sure, not going to let my guard down based on one run of the GFS, let alone the 18z run!

  61. JP Dave, it’s neat that you experienced the March `56 storms. I did not, but my father told me many stories about them. In no way was I thinking that `2016 would be a repeat. However, a pattern may emerge that is favorable for several late season snows somewhere in SNE, though probably not at the immediate coast. My hunch is Boston gets a lot of cold rain, which is sort of what we’re getting now. It’s the worst kind of weather, actually. I can’t even imagine spring-lovers preferring cold rain over snow, but perhaps they do.

    I said this a few days ago, but it may bear repeating. We hit 77F last week. It’s possible that we don’t see that number for while. Perhaps even for 2 months, especially at the immediate coast. Of course anything can happen in springtime. We could have an April heatwave between now and May. But, I’d put more money on us not hitting 77F until May over a heatwave in April.

    1. Agree, however, as you say, anything is possible.

      I remember one Easter Sunday in April when it was 94 in Boston.
      75 or 76? I think.

      1. I think `75. The marathon was brutal that year. I used to go with my Dad to Hopkinton and then `follow’ the runners all the way to Kenmore. We’d drive from point to point and watch them run. I remember seeing a runner in the lead for a while, right until Brookline. But, he got completely overwhelmed by the blazing heat and slowed to a painful crawl towards the finish. As I recall there wasn’t even a seabreeze in Boston. Just plain hot.

      2. 1976. And the next day the high was 96, resulting in the infamous “Run For The Hoses” Boston Marathon.

      3. I would have guessed 76 or 77. But I don’t have a reference …which is usually a memory….for the year…just the month. I was 7 in 1056 but have no recall of the storms.

  62. Models will go back and forth as usual. Still way out there in the future and anything is possible at this point

    1. We’ve already had a good share of it during late February and early March. Scale tips a bit now with the unsettled weather this week, a cold shot, a threat of a little winter white…

      Give it some time, and it’ll come back around again.

      1. I think it is safe to say that those who do not like winter…as much as I don’t personally understand it 🙂 …….have nothing to complain about this past season.

  64. Sun angle is equivalent to Sept 24th. And with a ocean already in the low to mid 40’s, snow and real cold become very tough this time of year. Not Impossible, but the percentage of it becoming possible are diminishing rapidly. We shall see

    1. Charlie I have seen it ZERO later this. In the 60s it was ZERO
      around or about 3/22. I have seen HIGH temps in the mid 20s very late in the month. What you say is just not accurate.

  66. Thanks for correcting me, TK. I thought it was `75, but I’m sure you’re right that it was `76.

      1. It was the year we were at our companies conference with 1200 clients from around the world who brought winter clothes. I remember being way too warmly dressed also

  67. Vicki, I didn’t know you were 17 at the time of the Norman conquest. Of course without internet back then or phones, telegrams, printing press, or transportation other than horse-drawn carriages, you probably weren’t aware of the Battle of Hastings. News took a long time to reach Framingham in 1066.

    1. Oh darn. I needed a good laugh. I had to go back to see what I had mistyped. I owe you. Too many emotions lately and a true laugh is the best medicine.

  68. 18z GFS has some accumulating snow Fri AM across eastern MA – in fact, up to 2″ on the north shore. Is this from an inverted trough from the departing low?

    I am also wondering if the GFS’ handling of this system is what is screwing up the timing/phasing opportunity for the Sunday storm.

    Again, it is 18z so I don’t hold much stock in it, but one of a number of solutions that is still on the table.

    1. I didn’t find much use in that particular run from start to finish. Quick and easy. Disregard. Sometimes we become prisoners to the model runs instead of using them wisely, and that includes the ability to ignore any particular run you know has no real value, for whatever reason…

      1. I agree but even the 12z GFS and 12z Euro had a number of ensemble members with a similar weak/OTS solution, as did the UKMET which has been up there in reliability with the Euro. Dont think it will happen that way but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities either.

  69. Storm is back on the 0z GFS but too far out to sea. Trough placement over the eastern US is too far east. Nice blizzard for Nova Scotia though.

  70. 0z CMC joins the GFS and UKMET and takes the storm out to sea now as well. Wonder if the Euro will stand ground or cave? Won’t be waiting up to find out. But needless to say, quite a turn of events – from inland runner to well out to sea in 24 hours.

  71. All we’re really seeing is a multi-model struggle in a transitional pattern, again. Be careful about locking onto a solution this far in advance, even if there is widespread model agreement…

    1. Indeed but it seems like that’s the pattern this year and I would say there is a decent shot at that verifying . We are just running out of time and it’s time to move forward in a new direction in my opinion .

      2. John, not laughing at you but was chuckling when I read your post. The calendar unquestionably tells us it is time for spring and fewer snow threats. However, have you shared your opinion with Mother Nature? She has a history of not wanting to play by the rules we humans set for her 😉

        Again, and being very careful to repeat, that I am now in the in between stages where I enjoy the warm weather and sitting outside so I am not disagreeing. Although, I am always fine with whatever mom tosses our way!!

  73. Daylight savings arrives and basically, we haven’t seen the sun since that time.

    Of course …………….

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