Sunday Forecast

294 Comments

2:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 3-7)…
Very active pattern, as is well known now, with “mini Winter” in early April. We have our brief snow blitz system today, the clipper Monday, and the next system quick on its heals now coming in a little earlier on Wednesday versus my earlier thinking of Thursday, and with that, it will be running into some lingering cold air and bring a touch of snow and/or mix with it (not an important system in terms of snow). By Thursday, it’s mild enough so that whatever is around will be in liquid and not frozen.
TODAY: Pre-dawn – rain/mix arrives and changes to snow from west to east, including a risk of thunder. Dawn to mid morning – mix to snow Cape Cod, snow elsewhere may fall at least briefly heavy to very heavy with very low visibility, including the chance of thunder. Late morning – snow rapidly ends west to east. Total snow accumulation coating to 1 inch Cape Cod and immediate shore, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, but pockets of 3 to 6 inches possible, favoring the I-495 belt mainly Boston’s southern and western suburbs. Afternoon – sun and passing clouds with a slight risk of an additional snow shower. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind NE to N increasing rapidly to 20-30 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH all areas, scattered gusts above 50 MPH, and isolated gusts above 60 MPH but favoring the Cape Cod region, shifting to NW and slightly diminishing but still strong in the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clouding up overnight with snow arriving from west to east by dawn. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW rapidly diminishing evening, then light and variable.
MONDAY: Overcast with snow, some mixing possible South Coast, accumulating 1/2 to 2 inches in most locations with isolated heavier amounts possible before ending late in the day with breaking clouds. Highs in the 30s. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to NE late.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 10s to middle 20s. Wind NE to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over with a chance of snow/mix, changing to rain late. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with episodes of rain or rain showers. Lows in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 8-12)…
Storm system impacts the region April 8 to early April 9 but it’s unclear this far in advance whether this will be just rain or if there will be mix/snow involved. Cannot rule the latter out. Temperatures will run below normal both days. Optimistically looking for fair and milder weather April 10-11 before unsettled weather returns April 12.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 13-17)…
Heading toward the middle of the month it is starting to appear that a more typical April pattern of blocking may set up, but it’s a toss-up at this point if we end up more on the fair weather side or the foul weather side. Will monitor this possibility.

294 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. TK thanks for update. Looking at radar and living in metrowest area, I would say I am going to get quickly clobbered. Can’t wait for the 5 AM local news … not sure I am going to want to listen either.

    At some point, we should have a general discussion about the summer. I am thinking warmer than normal as a general statement.

    1. Initially we’re marginal in temp in much of the region so rain/mix starts it off, but that won’t last. The shift to cold will be coming not only from the west and north but from overhead. This is set up like a smaller version of 12-9-2005 at an obviously warmer time of year.

      As for Summer, expect a hot one. All signs point to this so far.

  2. Thanks TK.

    Moderate rain already mixed with wet snow flakes in Coventry CT. Temp down to 36. Going to be a wild morning!

  3. Thanks TK.
    Ground is whiten as I look out my window and snow falling at a light clip at the moment.

  7. Not sure how we will end up but right now nothing but a coating in Woburn. Grass covered but that’s all.

  10. 4″ of snow in Coventry, CT and still snowing. Everything is plastered in white. Beautiful scene outside!

  12. I got around about an inch of snow with snow coming down moderate clip. No snow on the pavement.
    Wind is starting to pick up here.

  13. woke up at 5:30 and it was snowing like crazy. Went to sleep for a bit and up now.
    Snowing very hard now. About 1-2 inches on ground so far. There was a let up
    and some snow melted from ground up.
    BIIIIG flakes!!

    Street pavement is now covered.

    1. Will see if the same thing happens for you up there is the snow is winding down your wind will pick up. That is what is happening here as now the wind is becoming the main story.

    1. There’s got to be some thunder and 2″+ per hour snow in that band moving thru Boston now

  20. The NWS was spot on with the 4″ here. Roads are slushy and the plow has been by twice. 30 degrees and wind really starting to kick up but the snow is just plastered on everything and not moving. Awesome scene!

    http://i.imgur.com/aRM9OKP.jpg

  22. Jackpot band for Boston’s southwestern suburbs – right now.

    So far we have a very well-behaved system, and if it’s going to pull any tricks, it’s running out of time quickly. Offshore by 9AM or shortly after, except the Cape.

    2. The grass in that area is usually planted on dirt placed over cement so it’s going to have a really hard time there. That’s why I thought that particular area may only need brief treatment during the heaviest of the snow.

      Tomorrow’s event should be “slow enough” and daytime so again pavement will not suffer in that area.

    1. Once the low center is offshore and starts to move away then the wind will really pick up for several hours…

  31. BREAKING NEWS!
    Charlie has been spotted. Masshole News caught this candid photo while driving by an undisclosed location somewhere in southern MA just as the heavy snow got underway this morning…

    https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/l/t1.0-9/12938200_1092300754141820_1299862057639567194_n.jpg?oh=704e476d9f9c41560d42b64a03889c44&oe=57BB79D9

    One witness said: “It was hard to hear over the noise of the mower, but it sounded like he was chanting something… something like ‘This is not happening. This is not happening. This is not happening. It’s a beautiful day. This is just your imagination. You’ve been on that weather blog too much…”

    5. I have a virus with a cough. I laughed so hard that it took 15 minutes to get my cough under comtrol

    1. Warm pavements are your friend. 🙂

      I’ll have to do my cement walk but just an easy scrape. Driveway will take care of itself. I haven’t been out to measure yet, but soon. Somewhere over 1 but under 2 by the look.

      1. Yeah I am not touching it outside of the walkway. The wife has this thing about the kids not falling and getting hurt? She crazy.

    2. Lots of mild air in the lowest levels to allow the flakes to collect together into “feather flakes”.

      The actual flakes were close to normal size, but you were seeing a whole bunch of them all together.

    1. That spot in RI is a little suspect because I have noticed they tend to come in high all the time, otherwise everything looks like it landed in the expected range.

      1. TK, my Niece lives in the next town and my Brother used
        to live in Burreville. It is a snow magnet. I can attest to that.
        It may not be a suspicious total at all.

        1. Elevation and topography play a role. Did a little digging. Got it! We’ll go with that amount then.

  37. Consistent 4.75 on back deck and front stoop. Every surface covered. Son in law shoveled twice. It is absolutely beautiful.

  38. Bout what I thought here. Jackpot!
    Close to 5 inches of paste and still snowing a little. Pavement is snow covered. It’s starting to lighten up a little.

  41. Closing in on 5″ here in Sharon. Western Norfolk county coming in as jackpot area too. Winds really picking up. Concerned about limbs coming down as they are pasted with waterlogged snow.

    1. Does Western Norfolk County qualify as one of Boston’s southern suburbs? 😉

  42. Wunder stations not reporting wind in my area. I’m guessing the anemometers are snow packed. So far wind not an issue althiugh seems to be picking up slightly.

  43. We have about 2 inches of wet and heavy snow in Sudbury. Wind picked up about 1-1/2 hr. or so. I am looking forward to spring and summer but I have to admit – it is beautiful out with the snow covering all the trees, bushes, etc. Pavements wet and a bit slushy. Nice to have a little winter before the real spring and potentially hot summer weather sets in. I did notice how unusual and beautiful the sky looked late yesterday afternoon. Dark clouds moving fast with a little sun peeking through.

  44. My station is snow packed so no wind reading. I’ll go out in s. It and knock the snow off that and my poor junipers.

    1. I need to knock snow off young trees here also. Should be interesting. I have yet to locate boots or jackets among the boxes.

  46. Just took a measurement.

    2 inches. It snowed more than that, there was melting and compaction going on.

      1. So you’re disappointed with getting just over 2 inches with a snow burst in the morning when I forecast you to have 1-3 inches with a snow burst in the morning? 😉

          1. Ah, the HRRR influenced you. 😉
            It had an ok idea but I felt it had too much “jackpot”. The 12km NAM had the best idea when it came to its overall location of the heaviest.

      1. Very light snow here, vis way up. I’m going to call 2.2 my final unless we get a renegade snow shower/squall later.

    1. Target time is 5AM to 7AM, done by 5PM. Again though, a drawn-out event that will basically accumulate little or not at all on pavement.

  50. Just drove from Hanover to plymouth. Rte 3 is bad, very strong winds, very heavy snow. I am walking 6 miles for the MS walk this morning, this should be fun!

    2. Good luck! I’m doing a walk in Boston along the Charles next Sunday morning.

  52. I called a “2-hour-delay” on the usual Sunday morning stuff with Mom, so about to head out there now. The wind will be fun, but getting around will be easy now. Driveway is already down to slush. Have to clear 2 cars off and scrape one walk. Easy stuff.

  53. 8″ of snow reported at the top of Blue Hill; Those few hundred extra feet are a big advantage in a storm like this!

  54. First gust of wind we had our power flickered, cable rebooted, and a good sized limb came down. Ugh!

  55. 1.1 inches here in Billerica, never got into the heavy stuff. Maybe the Monday event gets bigger than forecast. 😛

    1. oh and wind is just starting up. The mix of wet snow and strong winds can lead to power outages.

    2. That was the reasoning I used for 1-3 there. I was wondering if the northern part of the comma would be just south of there…

  58. Just curious — hardly any wind at all in North Reading. Will the wind be picking up or are we out of its range?

  60. I believe it’s 40 degrees here in so ho. Partly cloudy. Not a hint of snow here. But The ride home will be interesting.

    1. You were in the jackpot zone but a lot of it will be gone, so don’t get home and think you had nothing. 🙂

  61. Thank God it’s April. Totally manageable. If this were late January, I would be fashioning a noose for myself today.

  62. What is that swirling thing with bands of heavy snow moving southeast through upstate NY towards SNE? Is that a meso low? Looking like we have several more snow showers and squalls to get though today.

  63. Temp down to 28 and falling in Coventry CT under another snow squall. This snow on the ground isn’t going anywhere the next couple days.

  64. Just got back my power back.
    Brief snow squall about half hour ago now the sun is back out.

    1. Even so, it shows that tomorrow’s snow will be more intense
      than previously advertised. Should realize 2-4 inches even during day light. 😀
      Perhaps a bit more. We shall see.

      1. Today was the worse of the two . Previously it was the opposite . We will not see 4 inch amounts around these parts tomorrow in my opinion only . In the backbay part of boston today this had pretty much no impact at all.

  66. Finished shoveling. I said 5 inches earlier but I’m leaning toward 5.5″.
    Up to 44, sunny, and melting. It won’t all go today, and with the cold coming, several inches will stick around all week. Plus whatever we get tomorrow. Hopefully not much. If it keeps this up, I’ll take a toaster bath. Or fashion a noose with retrac.

  67. 33.4 here. Still NOT much wind to speak of. Seriously, it is not very windy at all.
    Yes there is some wind, but NOTHING like advertised.

    Logan 10 AM gusting to 28 is all.

  68. And… Off we go. Still in NYC but on 95 going north. All roads are dry and it’s mostly sunny. Says its 42 degrees. 207 miles to home.

  70. 16,000 without power in CT according to Eversource. That said I concur the winds have not been as bad as I expected. They are gusty, but the winds earlier in the week were worse.

      1. Definitely not a holy crap (or other word) storm like Bernie thought! Did it end up maxing out to our south? Last night PA was rockin’ with intense thunder and lighting.

  72. Jus got cloudy again and another snow squall is happening outside my window. Had another one about hour and half ago.

  74. Not much wind here either. That one gust I spoke of earlier was about all we had. I was expecting worse.

  76. Just entered Fairfield act. No snow yet. Dry roads sunny temp says 44 degrees. I’m wondering if there’s a snow line, does anyone know where I should start seeing snow? I’m 30 or so from new haven ct

  77. Hey Vicki,
    Sorry to hear that your under the weather with that nasty virus. Feel well soon!
    It’s been a month for me and I am still not 100% better!

    1. Oh dear. I’m sorry to hear that. A month is a very long time. I detest coughs. Just hoping it doesn’t turn into more. Feel better really soon.

      1. I had a very nasty virus a number of years ago. I had to see a specialist and he put me on antibiotics and Gatorade…but I HATE the taste of Gatorade so it was not pleasant. I had to do it for almost a month IIRC.

        Both of you get better soon! 🙂

  78. Winds picking up here… 30-35 MPH gusts.

    BTW the short range guidance had the snow shower / snow squall band. This is why I put the risk of additional snow showers in the forecast after the main snow area moved out. They do well with those.

      1. If you want my thoughts, right now I think we snow briefly Wednesday, rain late Wednesday, drizzle and rain shower Thursday, rain Friday, snow Friday night, and snow shower Saturday. But that’s a long way off. 😉

  80. In New Haven ct still partly to mostly sunny dry roads. Still no hint of any snow falling or had fallen. Few big clouds way in the distance.

    1. You can see the snow shower clouds that are behind the storm, which is now offshore and moving away very rapidly.

      3-6 inches fell in your area, maximum was 8 inches atop Blue Hill. I had over 2 inches in Woburn, and it dropped off to the northwest.

      1. I agree with BlackstoneWX. 5.5 here and that is after compacting. Wind still very benign. Temp,just above freezing

  81. Does anyone know where the bare ground to snow on the ground line is? Is it basically providence north?

  82. One interesting aspect that I forgot about April snows is that as soon as it is over, you get pelted with snow from the tree branches. Back in 1997 walking under a tree was quite “painful” without an umbrella. 😉

    It does not feel nearly as cold as I feared. Logan noon obs. 35F.

    1. 30s in April feel a lot different than 30s in December. Sun angle is EVERYTHING. 😀

  83. About 40 min from ri ct on 95 border. Still nothing. Dry roads big clouds still way out in distance

  84. The storm may be wrapped up so tight that it’s keeping the strongest wind just offshore, and that’s not a bad thing, given the video I just viewed from Cape Cod of the wind there.

    But a tightening of the gradient behind this thing means it should still blow pretty good most areas this afternoon.

  87. Overall I am impressed because it was an April mini snowstorm, but unimpressed by its magnitude. There is virtually no real wind, and I had expected some by now. Snow amounts in Back Bay were well under 2 inches. I’d say 1 inch where I live. Nice to look at for an hour.

    The pattern we’re in is really cold for the time of year (about as cold today as it can get at this latitude on April 3rd), quite damp, and mostly gray. Sun is out right now, but we’ve had lots of gray skies recently. Coupled with the cold, snow, rain, and mix the coming week to 10 days it’s going to be raw and uncomfortable.

    The Bruins look awful. Don’t deserve a playoff spot. For a team and coach that have prided themselves on defense they have none, as in zero. The giveaways this year, including today’s textbook error, are inexcusable and may cost Julien his job. I like Claude, but he’s come to the end of the line with this team.

    1. Gusting to 45 MPH in Woburn now. There certainly is real wind in much of eastern MA. 😀

      1. I’m sure that’s the case, but it’s very gentle here in Back Bay. I don’t know how gentle, but my guess would be sustained wind in the teens with gusts in the 20s. Not sure if that qualifies as “real.” But then again I should have defined “real.”

        What is “real” is the embarrassing performance by the Bruins.

  88. 12z GFS keeps storm offshore for Saturday. Last two runs did show snow.
    Low pressure tracks right overhead on that run for Friday.

    1. Rather yucky on the GFS long range. Either stormy or a lot of days with our surface air coming from eastern Quebec or the maritimes.

      I hope that changes.

      1. We lived a charmed life nearly all Winter as well as the majority of March. It’s payback time! 😉

        2. True. I’ve also lived through many Aprils like this. Perhaps not as cold, but usually raw and often unpleasant. We’ll all manage. The raw’s will be a distant memory on that day in May that it hits 90F.

          1. April climo in New England isn’t the best. Truth is, what we have now and for the next 10 days or so is closer to climo than the 60’s and 70’s we had a couple days ago. Little league baseball starts the 16th. I’ve seen some really cold games in late April over the years. Spring doesn’t get going around here until sometime in May usually.

  89. There is a process that takes place here. We don’t always get instantaneous strong wind with a storm’s departure. The low is intensifying at sea, therefore ingesting more and more air from the surface. This, in response, will tighten the pressure gradient and require more air to replace the air that the low evacuated from its immediate vicinity. This, in turn, will result in more wind. Another problem we run into is this: Many people will see the expected gusts, and somehow translate that in their heads to sustained winds. So “gusts to 50 MPH” suddenly becomes an expectation of sustained winds of 50 MPH. I’m not quite sure how or why that happens. A mystery I have not yet solved, just like the snow range issue: 3-6 inches automatically means 6 inches. NOPE!

    1. I am not sure what the wind timing was expected to be. It certainly is not as strong as some we had last week. YET….but certainly could be and very possibly it was not to be as of this time. I just didn’t know.

    2. You’re not going to find snowy roads. I already explained that road issues would only be DURING the snow. Even when you get back into your area you’ll find dry roads and the snow that fell more than half gone.

      If you’re thinking of coming up and telling us it didn’t do anything, don’t bother. We were here for it. 😀

      1. I understand that. But I don’t even see snow on grass yet and I’m now almost in Coventry ri. I thought for sure if 5-6 inches fell I’d see snow. Did they not get any here in southern ri?

        1. Did you not see my posts above? Far southern RI got a trace to 1 inch. It would all be gone by now. Burrillville RI had 7 inches. There was a sharp contrast heading northward. Even Providence only had 1 inch. North Attleboro had 3.1 inches. Even most of that will be melted by later this afternoon. I said that would be the case. There are some scattered snow showers/squalls around now but they are quick hitters.

          1. Not only did you say that it would melt, but Charlie said repeatedly and repeatedly that it would melt quickly. We all know that from last week when we had six inches in framingham and it was mostly gone by end of day and totally gone by next day

            With a bit over five inches here and with temps hovering around freezing, the ground and the sun have melted at least half.

    1. I commented on that earlier – thanks for confirming! The remnants of that just came through here.

  92. Rhode Island was a big contrast just within the state: 1 inch at Providence, 7 inches at Burrillville.

    1. Ok thank you. So that means there won’t be any remnants of snow until basically I get home. Well that stinks!! I wanted to see a gradual increase blahhh 🙂

      1. You have to hurry if the sun comes out. POOF!

        I had 2.2 here, I have half bare ground and the covered part is about 1 inch. So I’ve lost over half of it in just 5 hours.

        1. Ive lost about half I’d say. Pool deck and walkways are clear. A bit of grass poking out on the south side of the house. I’m still at 40 with bright sun. Starting to. Let out of the trees, but still some there. I don’t expect it all to be gone before the next round tomorrow. I’d think by the end of the week it should be mostly gone. I had the grass dethatched, fertilizer and crab grass control put down Wednesday. The moisture will help work everything in.

  93. Just had a snow squall pass through Coventry CT with very strong winds and temporary blizzard conditions. Now the sun is back out! 28.4 degrees with wind chill in the teens. I have had zero snow melt in shaded areas and maybe about half of the 4.5″ that fell is still there in areas that have seen the sun.

    1. Mark I have seen now three snow squalls all last just under five minutes then the sun came out after each one. With only around an inch of snow here a lot of melting going on. The grass will get covered again tomorrow.

  94. Also this just says why in 5 yrs when weather euthuasist say April 2016 3-6 inches fell predawn and early hours mainly while many were sleeping. And then it’s gone that day, you can’t blame the average person for not remembering or having any memory of it. I’m not saying it didn’t happen.

    Just reached Southern tier of Providence. Thick clouds mixed with sun. There’s no snow LEFT here that I can see. And I’ve been trying to find just a patch.

    1. If the average person doesn’t remember it, it does not mean it didn’t happen. I would expect that an average person, when reminded, would say he forgot rather than say it didn’t snow. Ya know the old saying, if a tree falls in the woods and no one hears it, does that mean it didn’t fall? This gets old after a bit don’t ya think?

      1. Providence reported only 1 inch. I’m surprised you found anything there. You were traveling far south in the area that had almost nothing. Had you been coming up the Pike it would have been a different story.

        And yes you are correct, if a 3-6 inch snowfall had short-lived road impact on a NON WORK day then most of the snow melted during the day, people are not going to remember it.

  97. Saw 1st patch of snow Pawtucket Attleborro line. Looked like it was in a shady area, but it was snow.

  100. Back in north stopping at parents for visit. There is about an inch here maybe inch an a half. About 60-70% covered. 30-40% grass. All done for now. I still found it interesting. Basically the snow line is here northward. Enjoy the day!!

  102. Pretty potent low pressure system for late week on 12z runs GFS CMC and EURO.
    Too bad there not offshore. Rainorama with those tracks.

  105. Well anyone who turned that Bruins game off when it was 6-0 is missing a very interesting game. 😉

    1. Could they be the first NHL team to ever come back from a 6-goal deficit to win a game? Well that may be a stretch, but they’re sure making a run at it…

  106. Ferocious wind gusts, 40-45 MPH on a frequent basis here now. I was just at the cemetery on the east side of the city (not the one my dad is buried at) staking flower pots down at 5 graves and was really getting blown around. Got the job done though….

  111. Along with the WWA, NWS mentions a FLASH FREEZE for Boston-Providence corridor for tomorrow evening!!

    I don’t recall a flash freeze at any time this winter.

  114. Sad news out of my home town of Abington where two people were killed this morning when a tree fell on their car.

    2. Very sad news. While we all enjoy following the weather and we’re definitely experiencing some late winter blows, they’re not without consequences.

  116. Charlie, I thought the snow would mostly be gone by this afternoon in most places. So, what you’re (not) seeing makes sense. It’s not entirely gone in Back Bay, but almost. Nevertheless, I don’t think many people will forget about this snow, or tomorrow’s, or this late winter cold outbreak, even if they woke up late and didn’t actually see the snow falling or much evidence of it in its aftermath. The mostly mild winter means that many people are stunned when it’s in the 30s in April during the day with snow showers around and low to mid-20s at night with more snow on the way. Likewise, everyone remembers Halloween 2011. Not because of the Halloween costumes that year, but due to the weather. It’s the 8 inch snowstorms in January that very few people remember. Similarly, not many will remember a ho-hum 3 day heatwave (low 90s) in July.

    1. Well said Joshua. And thanks to apps like Time Hop we can use the pictures to prove that it does indeed snow in April. 🙂

  118. Of the 2.2 that fell here, it’s all off the trees, and there is just under 1 inch left on the middle of my yard with no snow on either side of that. A few of the thicker bushes still have snow on/in them, but anything higher and exposed to wind is now bare.

    I think the guidance is a touch high for tomorrow. Ratio is going to be around 8:1 and even if we got enough snow for 3-6 inches, when you melt it, we won’t be able to accumulate that much during the day. This one doesn’t have the element of intensity in its arsenal.

  119. A side note: The tree issues are not a surprise. New England is an aging forest. We have many trees that are in the dying stages.

  121. Fwiw, the 12z euro had 3-6″ for much of MA, northern CT and northern RI for tomorrow. A bit overdone I’m sure for the reasons TK mentioned above.

    It also delivers 6-12″ in eastern upstate NY from the late week coastal storm and a lot of rain in New England.

  122. Of the 5 that fell here and in my yard and within viewing area of house, the heavily covered trees have only an occasion bit of snow, the hill in the back that was used until about 2:30 for sledding is now at least 60% bare, rooftops are maybe 50% bare with only a thin layer where there is snow, lawns might have solid 2-2.5 inches with some grass tips showing through.

  123. One of the WRF’s brings 10-12 inches to northern CT/RI and adjacent MA tomorrow. Way off.

    12z runs were a bit high.

    18z NAM’s are coming into a more reasonable ballpark.

      1. 1-3 isolated 3-5, but keep in mind rate and time of day. There will never be that much on the ground. And pavements 90% just wet.

  125. Just another day in April at the summit of Mt. Washington: Current temperature is -6F (windchill of -40F), light snow and fog, winds gusting to 84mph.

    1. Looks nice to me, personally but I suspect those amounts are a bit high for TK’s taste. 😉

    2. I think the 7am – 11am is the key time for accumulations due to the brightness issue. It will be snowing after 11am, but not sure how well it will accumulate after that.

  127. NWS map for tomorrow looks quite ambitious to me… I’d say cut it in half. A general 1-3″ event, like what TK has. It’s the perfect setup for having many hours (basically the whole of the daytime) of snow but very little accumulation. Marginal temperatures, light precipitation, and of course the event occurring during the daylight hours. Elevation will play a role as well, the Worcester hills likely have the best shot at a 4″ amount.

    1. With the cold of today and especially tonight, it won’t need to be as intense to accumulate, especially in the morning. Pamela Gardner is saying 2-4. I think
      3-5 is the better call. We shall see. 😀

      1. After 9-10am it will not accumulate on pavement. Maybe on grass. 1-3 mainly grassy surfaces. You saw how warm the ground was today. It went poof. I think no different tomorrow as it will be melting. We will probably here some locales say they received 4 or 5 inches, but that’s if you measure hourly. For every 2 inches that may fall 1 inch will melt.

  130. I noticed the NWS in Buffalo just upgraded all of western NY from an advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for 4-7″ of snow. Wonder if this thing is going to overachieve a bit like the storm today?

    One thing for sure, the ground and air temps are MUCH colder tonight leading into this storm than they were last night at this time. Sitting at 23 here tonight with snow cover and frozen ground while last night at this time it was raining and in the low 40’s with soggy ground. Morning commute could be quite messy.

    2. The ground isnt really frozen, not like mid winter. It takes weeks of cold temps to freeze the ground very deep. I measured the ground temp last night at 4 inches and it was 52. If I went and measured it in the morning, it wouldn’t be much different. In fact, the ground didn’t really freeze much at all this winter in southern New England.
      That said, I think it sticks to the pavement easier in the morning than it did this morning, but traffic will beat it off pretty easily.

  131. Tomorrow: 1-3, isolated 3-5. 5 is a stretch. Nobody will likely have that much snow on the ground at any one time. It falls at a much slower rate than what happened in much of the region this morning, and fully during the day (starts about sunrise and ends before sunset). There will be under 1 inch along the shoreline of the South Coast region including most of Cape Cod. Yes I think the NWS map is a little too high. People will see the 4-6 and translate it to something like “6 inches on the roads”. Not happening. Most pavements will be wet most of the time, and any snow that does accumulate in a moderate burst will quickly melt away, even with temperatures below freezing. #AprilNotDecember.

  132. Any cold now will be rapidly counteracted by solar radiation, even through a cloud cover, tomorrow. And the rate of snowfall tomorrow will be only a small percentage of what occurred this morning. Totally different type of system. I think many of the TV guys/gals are actually forgetting this because of excitement over the fact we’re snowing a few times in April. Most of them have not had to forecast such an event here at this time of year.

  133. Blackstone – I can agree with that – the ground is definitely not frozen underneath but it is crunchy and hard on top and pavement surfaces are cold tonight. In fact my driveway has black ice on it from melting snow earlier. With the onset of snow before daybreak, I think it will accumulate on everything to start and the morning commute could end up messy, especially here in CT and central MA where the start time is earlier.

    1. Again apply these factors:
      Snow map assumes 10:1, though this will be around 7:1 or 8:1 ratio.
      Daytime occurrence – IMPORTANT factor. Even on April 1 1997 when the sun get up into the sky behind the overcast we struggled to attain accumulation. And this will be nowhere remotely as heavy as that was. I would not be surprised if the sun is shining dimly though the overcast as early as mid afternoon, at least in areas north of the Mass Pike.

      1. Forgetting the totals it is depicting, do you think the NAM has the correct area for the heavier snow accumulation?

    1. NWS feels sometime early evening when the sun is setting and temps are forecast to drop below freezing.

  141. red sox open in clevelad where high temps at game time forecast for 32-36. brrrr
    postponement?????

  142. nws discussion this morning.

    INTANGIBLES AND UNCERTAINTIES PER
    COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS THE INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL PARENT WITH
    SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DIFFICULT TO FORECAST EXACT AMOUNTS AND
    TRICKY TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE OBSERVED.
    BUT AN ANALYSIS OF ANALOGS AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE…AN OVERALL 3 TO
    6 INCH EVENT IS EXPECTED MAINLY N OF THE S ROW OF COUNTIES ACROSS
    CT/MA/RI. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND N
    OF THE MASS PIKE…ESPECIALLY HIGH TERRAIN.

  143. Noticeable uptick in intensity. Difficult to tell visibility from here as there
    are just too many trees and houses around. But I’d estimate we are down around
    1 mile, 1.5 tops.

    1. I have a better handle on vis at the office. Time to get ready to head to the office. 😀

  144. Snowing at a good clip. There is a coating on the pavement.
    Does not look like April 4th out my window this morning

  148. JP Dave that heavier snow you mentioned heading my way radar estimated one inch per hour snow rate. That band just west of me know.

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