Saturday Forecast

150 Comments

8:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 2-6)…
We’re the shooting gallery for fronts and small storm systems the first several days of April, with the first being the cold front that triggered scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during Friday. Next up is a low pressure wave sliding northeastward along that front just offshore, bringing a period of rain today. Closely behind the departure of this wave is another cold front this evening that may trigger a few more rain showers. Then comes a small but potent low pressure area in coincidence with the arrival of unseasonably cold air, resulting in a short-lived snow event Sunday morning that may have briefly significant travel impact but at a time of day when there is not much travel anyway. And we’re not done because after that departs and we get a period of strong winds, the cold air becoming even more established leads to another snow threat is a clipper low pressure system comes along during Monday. Behind that comes more wind and cold for Tuesday, then an easing of both for Wednesday.
TODAY: Overcast through mid afternoon with rain developing rapidly southwest to northeast this morning then tapering off west to east early through mid afternoon. Mostly cloudy later in the day with passing rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, but breaks of sun possible before the day is over. Highs in the 50s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers early. Clouding over late. Mix to snow developing rapidly west to east toward dawn. Lows in the lower 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable then NE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Overcast morning with snow likely. Areas of heavy snow and embedded thunderstorms probable. General accumulations of a coating to 2 inches, favoring unpaved surfaces, with isolated heavier amounts possible. Clouds and sun with passing snow showers to start afternoon then trending sunnier late day. Highs in the middle to upper 30s late in the day. Wind N to NW 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH common, gusts above 50 MPH probable in some locations, and gusts above 60 MPH possible in a few locations.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear early, then clouding over rapidly with snow arriving west to east by dawn. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW shifting to W 15-30 MPH early, diminishing to 5-15 MPH overnight.
MONDAY: Overcast with snow of up to a few inches except mix more likely near the South Coast, ending west to east during the afternoon. Mostly cloudy late day. Highs in the 30s. Wind shifting W to NE during morning and midday then back to NW afternoon, 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Windy with sun and clouds. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 7-11)…
Next storm system will bring a chance of rain April 7 and rain/mix April 8. Windy and colder with possible mix/snow showers April 9, depending on evolution and eventual departure of storm system. Generally fair with a milder trend April 10-11.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 12-16)…
Unsettled weather returns April 12-13 with another quick shot of cold air. Fair and milder weather follows.

150 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK. Tomorrow morning could be very exciting for parts of SNE. Moreso than most events, it’ll be a nowcast situation, mostly because of how small the system is. There could be a very localized jackpot (no telling where but I’d favor either the Worcester area or perhaps northern RI) where 2-4″ falls very quickly with heavy snow/thundersnow.

    1. There will be a couple very tight bands as the small cyclone evolves. That will be where the most action is.

  2. A comment on snow amounts: Responsible on air and other media mets should not have been talking about amounts until sometime yesterday, and for the most part, none were until then. I didn’t see any forecasts that I thought were out of line at the time. However, as brought up previously, some of the talk used and headlines displayed may give the impression that something big is going to take place. While indeed this is likely to be true in one sense, the result here is not giant snow totals. I have explained this to my readers in that the system, though capable of delivering heavy snow, is going to pass through in a matter of a few hours, literally, in terms of its precipitation impact. Had this been a slow moving system, we’d be in a totally different ballpark with snow forecasts and I’d have had no trouble putting up the big #’s for April. My coating to 2 inch snow forecast is based on the fact that the system is here and then gone and that the month is April, and that we’re coming out of warm weather with warm ground. Yes the ground temp will have an impact, and this system will also be occurring early in daylight and immediately fighting that battle.

    I think the NWS is trying to communicate the anomalous type of event this is, as in a snow threat in April for one thing, and then a tiny and very potent low pressure system, which we do get but not always containing very late season or very early season snow threats. The explosive development of this system will lead to the possibility of fairly localized intense wind gusts. We’ve seen this before. This is where wording not only of those making the forecast but those reading/listening becomes critical. One example: I just did a random point forecast on the NWS site for a location on the South Shore and saw “gusts to 60 MPH possible”. There is nothing wrong with this forecast, as it is written, but I assure you someone will read it and then tweet out something like “Winds are gonna be over 60 MPH all day tomorrow and it’s gonna be a blizzard which means tons of snow.. REALLY?!” Sad but true.

    NWS could avoid problems by keeping some of the stronger wording out of headlines. But here is another issue I have. They do use strong wording at times in their forecaster discussions, which to this day I maintain SHOULD NOT BE FOR PUBLIC VIEW. These discussions are meant to be for the use of professional meteorologists only. A detailed weather summary should be what is available for the public, not the technical discussion. As soon as the public was let in on the tech talk, many of them became “experts” and away went the train with no engineer to control it. That is NOT good. And as long as the general public continues to have access to forecaster thoughts and interpret them as final official forecasts, we’re going to have this problem.

    1. Excellent post. Thank you. My only comment …and you knew I’d have one…is that it seems to me if the public misreads, it is the fault of the public ans not the mets. Also, I like the terms, etc they use and it seems a shame to dumb it down for those who do like the information because of those who don’t use their God given intelligence.

      That said, I totally understand what prompted your accurate analysis.

  3. One additional thing… Be careful with interpretation here.
    “Possible” means… “possible”. It does not mean “certain”. This is forecasting. It’s making an educated guess on future events based on what we know of the atmosphere. This seems to be lost more and more on people and I need to have it reeled back in.

  4. Thank you TK and well said. AND I might add, your wording in the forecast
    is REALISTIC and NOT HYPE! I like that.

    I agree that generally gusts to 40-50 mph and then you “handle” the possibility of higher gusts so well. You could give the NWS a lesson or 2. 😀

    Thanks for the excellent job.

    Now we wait and see what happens.

    1. I go out of my way to avoid writing things that will be taken not as intended. I just wish this was a general practice. Anyway, education, education, education! I’m not talking about the folks that read and comment here for the most part. And when I see someone misreading or misunderstanding, I jump in to try to address the issue. We can’t know it all! As a meteorologist, I continue to learn new things myself regarding the weather.

      Yes we wait. Important to keep in mind just how small this Sunday morning system is, so those folks just outside its main influence will not see much in terms of snow, though the wind impact will be a little further reaching.

      1. TK, The reason I reposted the NWS forecast on WHW this morning was only for the use of discussion and not to be taken verbatim. I am sorry that I was not clear about that.
        I apologize for the confusion and for upsetting you so.

        1. No need for any apology! It was a perfect example! I appreciate all the hard work the NWS does, and they do have to issue a product. I don’t have a problem with their discussions being posted here because we have at least one met, a few mets-in-training, and others with enough common sense that can explain anything that would not be understood otherwise. We also have people that are not afraid to ask questions! When I speak of the ignorance of media and public, it is generally not applicable to this blog, because we never would let it get to that point there. 🙂

  5. Thanks, TK…

    What time can we expect the height of tomorrow’s event? 4 am? 7? 10?

    Have a great weekend!
    Celtics take down GSW in California last night!!!!

    1. Bruins took down the Blues in St. Louis in an a game with a combined 11 goals. Despite all of that, there was some awesome goaltending as well.

      I expect the peak of the event to be in about a 3 hour window from 6AM to 9AM.

  6. 06z NAM for 12km and 4km res both bring the heaviest accumulation to Boston’s southwestern suburbs. A combined 3 to 6 inches.

  7. I saw that game last night nice one. Boy cam looks older . TK trying to plan my night rough time on ETA between 3-5 am for boston maybe . Thoughts . So seems I’m seeing a lot of C-2 amounts what is your call for the Brookline / long wood area of boston . And do you think most of this falls on grass maybe just needing the salters out for the area in question . Thank you .

    1. I think around 5AM for start, and I think they may need to treat and MAYBE scrape for a short time, but it’s not going to last long, and by late morning there will be no lingering road impact.

        1. Thick coating to 2 inches is the best call I have. I don’t think it snows long enough to get over 2 inches. Pavements covered only briefly, but for a short time could be quick slick. Can’t stress enough that it can go from ok, to really bad, to ok again, over a relatively short period of time.

  8. I already have customers canceling orders for tomorrow due to “the blizzard that’s coming……..”

  11. shotime please see my reply above .. NO NEED for apology and you’ll see what I mean above. 🙂

  12. To clarify something I was not very good at explaining. The fact that the NWS discussions are available to the public, though I don’t think they really should be, is not a bad thing so long as people know their limits of understanding. This is not a problem here on the blog. It’s more an issue when you have somebody out there in social media rewording it to make themselves sound like all-knowing news breakers, just in the name of ego. It’s all over the place out on the net and far too many people are relying on the “fake mets” for “real info”. It may not have a huge impact on a sunny day, but it sure can during weather that may be life-threatening.

  13. Interesting….

    The Experimental HRRR which goes out 24 hours, is quite bullish about tomorrow’s
    event. Showing general 1-2 inch per hour snow rates for at least 2 hours, likely a tad
    more. Showing a generl 3-5 inches across the area. very interesting indeed.
    AND it has the heavier axis a bit farther North than the NAM bringing Boston into play.

    Here is total snowfall ending 12Z with still a little bit more to come.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016040212/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f24.png

    1. I think the ratios may vary across the area so that entire map would not be as is, given a perfect verification.

      At this point I favor the solution of the 12km NAM from 12z. I think the 4km may be a tad overdone, especially for the 2nd event as it prolongs it too much.

  14. Thanks TK. Will have to go back to see what prompted your comments.

    Good day to stay in and unpack 🙂

    1. I read NWS posted on yesterday’s blog. It seems it isn’t as much what they said but what they didn’t say or said vaguely enough that it needed to be read several times. BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. Burst is random. Hurricane force winds…..gusts? Winds?

      All that said, I’ve never paid attention to them even before WHW. Kind of like the weather channel.

  15. I almost feel like tomorrow will be like thunderstorms in summer where some areas could get hit hard and other areas very little if anything when it comes to snow.
    Will all share in the wind.

  17. Thank you tk

    My question is for Monday. Snow in the air is not the problem. I’ve worked a few times in snow, but essentially the end product was like it was raining. Working in snow flakes is easier than working in actually rain. My main question anything else than a light coating falling in Norfolk county Monday ? Thank you!!

      1. I consider a light coating under a half inch. I’m thinking during the day nothing accumulates. We plan on leaving office at 7am fort a big workday

    2. For Monday’s system, I don’t think anything more than 1 inch will be on the ground in that area during the event, even if the actual snowfall is slightly over that, which is a toss-up. And most of what falls Sunday will be gone. Monday’s system is not as heavy and more drawn-out over time.

    1. Again remember to take off from that because it’ll be daylight and the model has no idea it’s April. It’s going to just take snow and apply the 10:1 rule and nothing else.

        1. I’ll have an inch or 2 off the top please, no sideburns, and buzz the back and sides please…

          Oh oops!

          Maybe 1 or 2. It’s hard to say. I’m chatting with someone right now that makes a legit case for someone getting 6 inches.

  20. Back from conference. It went well. Las Vegas, however, is not my cup of tea. Visceral (negative) response to the city and I hardly ever dislike a place I visit.

    Colleague at work was fired, so a very difficult week all in all, especially since I work in a very small department. I need to get the hell out but good jobs are hard to come by, particularly when you’re over 50.

    It looks like we will get accumulating snow in April. It’s been a while since that last happened. Overall, however, this stretch of weather has been and will continue to be very gloomy, windy, and unpleasant. Yes, even I am pleading for warmer and drier weather at this point.

    Charlie, I believe your lawns will do allright so long as the frost at night isn’t too prolonged and severe. I don’t expect it to be. Upper 20s, yes, but I don’t think your region gets below 28F. Quite cold for the time of year, but not a real issue for lawns in my opinion. The snow will not be a factor for the lawns. It’ll melt almost as fast as it accumulates. Just extra cold water.

    3. I love Las Vegas. But I can only take it for about 4 days since I don’t sleep much when I go. Craps is my game 😉

      1. Same here great fun place. But it’s a place that is almost to much fun. 4-5 days is good

  21. For your amusement: Today’s 12z GFS decides the system after April 10 is going to track much further south and not rain-out, but snow-and -rain-out the Sox home opener on April 11. 😉

  22. Ok stay calm TK. This one is starting to make me go a little nuts. I can’t ignore some of the signs that show the possibility of someone getting 3-6 inches out of this. I’ll stick with the coating to 2 and “locally heavier” for now. There is just about always “locally heavier” somewhere.

    2. Lot of wind screaming down to the south. 100 kts maybe? That’s not surface folks, don’t get alarmed. The higher QPF should be north of that max wind field, I think. So yea, somebody down southwest of Boston could see a dump of 4-5? Hard to say. My chart reading needs work so I may have the wind speed and position wrong which would effect where the QPF dump is.
      Or I could be full of shyte 🙂

    3. Which one? Tomorrow? or the 11th?

      If tomorrow, I can easily see many getting 3-6 inches. 😀

      1. Tomorrow.
        As it stands now, at least to me that next weekend thing is a rainer. I don’t think there’s enough cold air to work with.
        But for tomorrow, somebody could see 5 inches of concrete pretty easy. Depends if the QPF comes hard enough and where the max wind at 700 or so sets up.
        The Monday thing looks wimpier than Sunday’s. Day time event and all.

        1. And I wouldn’t say many get 3-6. Narrow strip to the north of the max wind flow if I read it right. Tk can chime in on that one.

          1. Ding ding ding!
            Chiming in. I generally agree. That covers my “some areas heavier”. 😉

  23. One last thought regarding the April Fool’s 1997 storm. Looking back on it, I really believe that had the same setup occurred one month earlier (March 1) Boston would have easily received in excess of 30″ if not 3 feet of snow. Early on there was very little accumulation for several hours IIRC. That Monday March 31 Boston received only 3 inches and the remaining 22.4 inches fell mostly overnight into early morning April 1.

    A perfect example of day vs. nighttime snow accumulation due to sun angle/intensity.

  25. Tweets from meteorologist Ed Vallee
    6″ snow reported west of Grand Rapids, MI. Surprises coming to New England tomorrow morning.

    Due to convective nature, snow accumulating up to 6″ in SW #MIwx. This will occur in New England tonight/Sunday.

    1. That’s what’s wrong with Twitter. You can’t make comparisons like that.
      And Ed gets, shall we say, a bit enthusiastic?
      Narrow strip probably along the mass, CT, RI border somewhere.
      Ed makes it sound like it’s everywhere. 140 characters not much to work with.

      1. That said, I may jackpot through here. Parts of the valley may be in the sweet spot. Not that I want it. Someone else can have it, I’m done with winter personally.

      2. Twitter is funny. You can find whatever tweet you want on there. Not saying he has no credibility but just saying

        1. You can blog whatever you want too. The difference between there and here is..Twitter doesn’t have a moderator. 😉

  26. This tweet from Bernie Rayno
    Sunday morning in Boston will be something.1/4S+ with strong northern winds whipping the snow around. VVL/850t shown

      1. Brief white-out conditions.
        That doesn’t translate to big #’s. It translates to an hour or 2 of very poor travel conditions.

          1. If the snow comes down heavy for an hour or 2, it’s going to be a little more than wet roads during that period of time. I’ve already said it won’t be a lasting impact regarding snow, but it may be significant during its occurrence. People need to understand this if they are going to be out and about.

  29. After looking at latest radar that is one giant ball of energy over the Great Lakes. Just my opinion but I can understand why some mets are concerned for our area tomorrow morning. We will see one way or the other.

    1. It will be interesting if there’s any snow left if it does materialize. If it does it will be interesting if NYC receives any. If not on the ride up 95 where will I begin to see a few snow patches.

      1. It’s no longer a question of whether or not it materializes. It already has materialized, hence the 3-6 inch swath across parts of the Great Lakes today. All that’s left is to see what it does here.

      1. The wind will be the more widespread impact tomorrow. We’ve already discussed what is most likely with the snowfall and that has not changed. Just comes down to finding out where the heaviest will be.

      1. Did you read their discussion to come up with the “minimal impact” statement?

    3. WWAs are up for most areas in SNE, but they’re “hidden” on the NWS home page by the high wind warning.

  36. I hope the wind doesn’t overachieve.

    This (a storm deepening very, very rapidly) hopefully won’t parallel the Dec 9, 2005 event that brought hurricane force wind gusts to Cape Cod.

    Tracking this for a few days and the Monday system, I keep forgetting its April. I kind of feels like February 70th 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Oh boy ….. Well, we’ll run the heat a little higher than usual later tonight.

        If there’s resulting power issues, at least we’ll have daylight til 7pm tomorrow night.

  39. Tom you were mentioning about this being a rapidly deepening storm.
    Tweet from Fox 61 in CT agrees with you.
    Latest data indicates rapid cyclogenesis w/strong polar energy through the area early Sunday. Damaging winds & snow.

    1. And ….. From just this past Friday, I’m sure there are a few large branches, maybe even small trees that are ready to go on the next windy day.

      Then, plaster 2-4 inches of wet snow on them and have the wind ramp up quickly to strong gusts …… I just hope we won’t remembering tomorrow more for power issues than April snow.

      1. Great and our wires are under ground. I just have to hope whatever feeds them isn’t I suppose 😉 😆

  42. Even had a rainbow once it was over.
    First hail outside my window a severe storm with quarter size hail came through in July 2012. This hail a lot smaller only pea size.

  44. Looks like a wild couple of hours for localized areas just southwest of the city tomorrow morning!

    1. Let’s make it more west and south. I like that better. And hi Arod. We know snow is in the air when you post ❄️❄️❄️

      1. Hi Vicki! Not a large scale long duration event; however, the high winds and briefly S++ could prove quite impactful for some.

  47. I’ll be back in town between noon and 2 pm. I’ll let u know what I see on the drive up and when I get home.

  51. That system is hauling. At least on the radar loop. If it keeps moving like that it’s in and out of here by 7 or 8 am

  52. The line this evening that dropped the small hail to the west broadened but weakened. The short range guidance modeled this quite well in both location (timing) and strength.

  53. The operational HRRR is in range.
    And it says SNOW!!!
    1-3 inches per hour for a couple of hours.
    Genergy 4-6 inches with some higher pockets. Pretty impressive for a short lived event.

  55. 28z cmc hrdps model calling 25 mm qpf across the area. That is .98 inches!!
    Probably an otlier, but does show how
    Potent this thing is or will be.

  56. Just reading this tweet and this shows how strong the wind gusts are with this system.
    47,000 plus without power in Cincinnati, Ohio. Hopefully we won’t be seeing numbers like that here but with the winds expected its hard to believe there won’t be power issues.

  58. It may not look impressive at the moment but I think were going to see some impressive wind gusts with this system. The snowfall amounts will see what happens and where those heavy bands setup shop.

  59. I actually think it’s gonna haul through here so fast it won’t have much time to put down as much as it has the potential to otherwise.

  60. In the eyes of a true weather geek (me), this will surely be the most exciting event of the winter season. As has been stressed, snow totals will be fairly negligible in most (not all) cases. But man, the dynamics at work here are amazing. There’s certainly room for a localized 6-7″ amount, and 2-4″ may be quite common. Wish I were home for it!

  61. Hurricane gusts just off shore tomorrow. This is one very potent system. I think icing may be a problem on secondary roadways tomorrow as the temps stay below freezing once the system zips on by. It will feel like mid winter the coming 3 days, with wind chills as low as the single digits in some locales. My initial assessment of the extent of cold was completely wrong. I do think that almost all of SNE will experience temps that dip below 25F, with teens a possibility, and that’s not even accounting for wind chill. That’s very cold this time of year. Everyone, be safe on the roads and as you move about.

  63. Bernie’s on twitter…
    Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno · 51s51 seconds ago
    As I said this is a holy crap (or other word) storm. I think stronger language will be used in Boston Sun am

    line coming right thru PHL with wind and hail

  66. Lol I feel I like I should be saying its 28 degrees and about to snow. But it 42 its partly cloudy and 42.2.

    1. Spring systems are different animals. They don’t need cold air ahead of them.

  67. I’ve posted the new blog early. Will be on frequently during the morning with updates. Again don’t make the mistake of thinking we’re going to be digging out from tons of snow. The maximum I can see anyone getting is 6, but that’s pretty much going to be the big exception versus the rule. The story will be the rate of snowfall and low visibility and possible thunder for a relatively short period of time, and then the wind, which will last longer.

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