Friday Forecast

205 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 1-5)…
April’s here, and it’s time for a transition from the feel of late Spring to the feel of late Winter. It will take place through the weekend as a series of cold fronts move through, the first bringing some showers and a few downpours today, though much of the day will be rain-free in most locations. A wave of low pressure on the first front brings a period of rain especially to southern and eastern MA as well as RI the first half of Saturday. A second cold front comes through from the west later Saturday with a few more rain showers. A third front on a wave of low pressure crosses the region Sunday. This one brings a chance of mix/snow with it. Though any snow has the potential to fall heavily in some areas, the episode will be rather brief due to the small size of the system as well as its fairly rapid movement. Snow accumulations are possible in some locations with this system – something that will be fine-tuned this weekend. Yet another low pressure wave will come along Monday in clipper form, and bring yet another chance of snow/rain, before moving away and providing one more reinforcement of unseasonably cold air.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few sun breaks possible. Episodes of rain showers. A few downpours possible. Highs in the 60s most areas, except middle to upper 50s South Coast and a few lower 70s possible interior valleys. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower and possible brief downpour moving northwest to southeast across the region early. Rain possible RI and southeastern MA by dawn. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain RI and eastern MA as well as possibly the NH Seacoast region in the morning and midday. Scattered rain showers west to east later in the day. Temperatures steady in the 40s day falling to the 30s evening. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late.
SUNDAY: Cloudy start with snow/mix which may be briefly heavy, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with isolated snow showers. Becoming very windy. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow/mix north, mix/rain south. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 6-10)…
Fair April 6. Mix to rain April 7. Chance of rain/mix April 8 then mix or snow showers April 9. Fair weather returns April 10. Temperatures below normal through the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 11-15)…
A shift to milder weather with fair weather for the most part except some mid-period rain showers.

205 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    APRIL FOOL’S DAY! Watch out for pranks, especially at the office. 😀

    Happily our blog host did NOT prank us!

  5. There is some support for more snow than Not Monday night into Tuesday. We shall see.

    GFS is the model that keeps the system a bit more to the North and thus with lower
    snow totals, due to track and/or mix.

    Euro and FIM support a moderate snowfall (4-6 inches). Nam doesn’t quite go
    out that far, but seems to support something in the order of 2-4 or 3-6.

    Waiting on those precious 12Z runs. I wish there were a run every hour. I can’t stand the wait. (HRRR operational is hourly, but goes out only 15 hours while the experimental HRRR goes out 24 hours. RAP goes out 18 hours)

  7. Anniversary of April’s Fool Blizzard. Funny how I have nice memories of all our big storms. It seems they bring neighborhoods together and generally bring out the best in people.

    1. That storm was awesome and what made it more eventful, was how late
      in the season it was! Loved every second of it!

  8. There is a fair amount of helicity in the atmosphere today.

    SPC severe

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1459514963057

    SPC tornado

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1459515008679

    Helcity

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f018.gif

    2 tornado ingredients charts

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f018.gif

  9. Red Sox opener in Cleveland looks brutal. 4:10 pm start. High in the low to mid 40’s, 60% chance of snow/rain, low in the mid 20’s. I wouldn’t be surprised if Monday’s game isn’t postponed until Tuesday. Tuesday is an off day anyway. Looks like a better day, but not by much.

      1. They start the season too early. If they would wait until the 10-15th it would be much better. A lot of times the first 10 days of April can be pretty bad in the east.
        Home opener on the 11th, at least looking 10 days out, looks to be in the 50’s, so not too bad.

        1. I have always stated that the season should be less games, say somewhere in the 140s and the season should start
          on or about May 1st, NEVER starting in APRIL!
          It is FOOLISH!

          I remember Rick Wise with the Sox pitching a weekend
          afternoon game in April with the temperature at 20 Degrees with nasty mist/drizzle. He damaged his arm
          and was Never the same after that.

          PISS-POOR conditions for baseball!

    2. BlackstoneWX …been watching for you. I am not as high as I thought in my new home. 370 feet as opposed to what I have found at Sutton center of 600ish. There are so many hills out here, it is hard to tell what is higher than the next. I love it!!

      1. It varies a lot. I’m at 417, but just at the bottom of my street it’s 360, and at the top it’s 440

        1. I love the variation. It reminds me of VT in a small way when I hit the top of a hill where there is an old barn and silo and I can look out over the surrounding valleys. And oddly, it reminds me of the Marshfield area I enjoy so much….minus the ocean. But tons of water.

  10. NWS mentions coastal storm for late next week but likely an inside runner as the track is over or to the west of our area.

    1. Thanks, Sue. He amuses me also. Between negative tilts and cyclonic curvature, I am thinking it won’t do one bit of good to upright the chairs in the yard again 🙂

          1. Notice that little blob SW of Boston with enhanced
            amounts. Seems to fit pretty well with what TK
            was saying, doesn’t it? 😀

            1. Yep – I said I’d like one snow storm in the new house so the kids can use the sledding hill in the yard. Mac is working on it !!

                1. You bet, Sue.

                  So far I’m crediting him with pushing what would have been two very major storms away in days that were difficult.

  13. Thank you tk 🙂

    Happy Apeil!!! Pool opening next weekend. Namco is fixing a side today.
    I’ve gained more clients this year fearing they see mosquitos and ticks than any year. I got it by one yesterday.

  14. Ground temps are between 56-60 degrees so if you take care of your own turf. Apply your step 1. Or you will be to late.

  15. Pool opening this next weekend, after the cold for the next week? Who is going to swim next weekend? There is no way in NE that a pool should be open on April 9th.

    1. I open mine patriots day weekend. I have for the last 8 years.
      I have a 400,000 btu heater.
      But, we don’t run the heater until May. Once the water gets to about 55, algae can grow. I get the cover off, get the pump going, get some bleach in it and the pH adjusted and I’m ready to go. My neighbor opens in mid May and it’s always a deep green while mine is pristine. Besides, I’d rather look at nice blue water than the cover.

        1. Not for the last few years. 2012 was the last April I can remember we did.
          If you open green, it takes 20 gallons of Clorox and at least a week to get it clear again. Open early and you don’t have that trouble and expense. And I wouldn’t have a pool in NE without a heater. Seasons short as it is w/o a heater.

          1. My brother in law in CA even has a heater but then San Francisco area can be cooler than to the south

  16. Whatever happens Sunday morning, those thicknesses are really quite low.

    Even in SE most Mass, any boundary layer mildness will be overpowered quickly.

    Going to be interesting to see how much the temps drop during the brief intense precipitation.

  17. I am done with the snow at this point, but Mother Nature certainly isn’t going to listen to me. I still find the weather that is going to be coming through here early Sunday to be very interesting and I might need to set my alarm to watch it 🙂

    1. I suspect I will also set my alarm. I am fine with or without it, but I would not mind watching one more.

    1. It was 65 when I took my walk about 40 minutes ago, and not only did it feel quite humid, it was trying to drizzle. Still, it was glorious 😀

      1. So funny how everything is relative. It really is a beautiful day. We have had so so many of them.

    2. If that DP were in mid-summer, it would feel almost refreshing but now it feels quite muggy.

  21. 66.7 at my house in JP about 1/2 hour ago.

    Really damp feel to the air.

    So far anyway, Sunday AM seems to be more robust concerning snow than
    Monday night-Tues AM.

    still waiting on the Euro, but putting all models together, a general 2-5 inches
    across the area for Sunday AM. With another couple of inches on Monday night.

    Hmm I forgot to check the SREF to see what it has to say. I’ll check.

    1. That was a waste. Less than an inch for Sunday and about 1 inch Monday night.
      I don’t think the SREF has caught on yet. We’ll see what future runs show. 😀

  23. I am wondering now if the Sunday AM event is going to literally suck all the energy out of the atmosphere and leave little for the Monday/Tuesday event.

    1. I don’t think so, these separate waves of energy are very difficult to forecast and determine strength position, etc. I like Bernie’s explanation and his use of charts which depict each piece of energy via the GFS and Euro. Things are moving along too quickly to really impact any of us in a major way, but it will still be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

  24. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1246 PM CDT FRI APR 01 2016

    Areas affected, portions of the mid-atlantic and southern new
    england

    concerning, severe potential, watch unlikely

    valid 011746Z – 011945Z

    probability of watch issuance, 20 percent

    summary, a broken band of showers and thunderstorms will gradually
    organize this afternoon from northern virginia to southern new
    england. some threat for a few damaging wind gusts and a marginally
    severe hail report or two is expected. watch issuance is currently
    unlikely, but conditions will be monitored for an increase in
    thunderstorm organization.

    discussion, recent satellite and radar mosaic imagery depict a band
    of scattered showers and thunderstorms stretching from western new
    england southwestward to west virginia. mid-level ascent from a
    passing impulse, as well as some sfc convergence along/near a
    pre-frontal trough, are likely aiding this convection. as low-level
    convergence advances eastward, developing cells will encounter a
    more favorable thermodynamic environment, characterized by dew
    points in the upper 50S/lower 60S and mlcape values around 500-800
    j/kg. such destabilization is being aided by a considerable
    clearing/thinning of cloud cover across much of the region.

    while the vertical distribution of buoyancy suggests updraft
    acceleration should not be too strong, long/straight hodographs
    /i.e. ample unidirectional shear/ should be favorable for small
    bowing segments and storm splits. where diurnal heating has resulted
    in steeper low-level lapse rates, efficient downward transport of
    strong flow aloft should favor a few damaging wind gusts this
    afternoon and early evening. although hail growth should be limited
    by a lack of greater buoyancy aloft, plentiful deep-layer shear
    will promote mid-level rotation and perhaps a couple severe hail
    reports. while watch issuance is currently not
    anticipated, conditions will be monitored closely for a potential
    increase in the threat, especially considering the strength of the
    kinematic field.

        1. If you are talking about water temperature influencing
          the weather, then those are NOT the numbers/locations to use. Did you ever see a MET post the inner Boston Harbor temperature? NO, they post the Boston Buoy which is 16 miles due East of Boston. That is the one the NWS always uses as well.

          If you are talking about swimming/boating/water skiing, surfing etc, then those locations are excellent. 😀

  27. Euro continues to be totally and completely UNIMPRESSIVE for Sunday AM.
    WIMP of all WIMPS!

    1. Snow map for Sunday event.

      http://imgur.com/pvEzh94

      I think the Euro is missing the boat on this event. The Monday night is a bit
      more longer range and more in the Euro’s wheelhouse, so let’s see
      what Mr. Euro says about that one in a few minutes. 😀

  28. Euro looks to dive the Monday night clipper so far South as to miss us or graze us with no development on the coast, passing harmlessly out to sea.

    I need to see 2 more panels to be certain.

    1. Didn’t slip out like I thought, but it is not very strong. Here are the Euro snow
      totals for the Monday-Tuesday event.

      http://imgur.com/tGNFD5H

      This actually looks reasonable.

      So, we can go with the Euro,GFS,CMC,FIM blend for Mon-Tues, but I’d
      go with the Higher resolution short range models for Sunday AM.

      So, it is theoretically possible to pull 4 inches of snow from each event.
      And that is not too much of a stretch at all. That is not over doing it and
      being sensational.

      2. Ground isso so warm, it’s gonna take more than 2 days of cold to cool ground or snow falling heavy IMO, don’t you think os?

        1. Nope. Totally disagree. Once it starts coming down with
          the cold temperatures, it will accumulate quickly.
          Pavements will be a different issue. IF we get thunder
          snow Sun AM, then the roads will get covered. 😀

  29. Moderate to heavy snow will not accumulate. It’s got to come down at a rate of 2 inches per hour to accumulate and let’s say it briefly accumulates a slushy coating, the ground is so warm it’s going to melt it consistently even if temps go below freezing. Within a couple inches of ground/pavement is warm

    2. Charlie, we had six inches in Framingham 10 days ago and it didn’t come down anywhere close to 2 inches an hour. How did you figure that?

  30. Does anyone know what the EURO melted is for the Sunday morning time frame ? The EURO looks like it has that tight ball of energy, I wonder if it projects the boundary layer to be too mild ?

      1. Well, the rates seem to be intensifying from 12 to 18z.

        I’m kind of looking forward to Sunday morning and seeing what does or doesn’t happen.

        1. I predict Thunder Snow and 2 inch per hour snow.
          BUT, it won’t last too long, perhaps enough to garner
          4 or 5 inches. We shall see. Wonder how robust the 18Z
          mesoscale models will be?

          1. I agree. I think there’s enough signals for someone to see a 1/2 hour whiteout Sunday morning:

  31. Ok, I’m gaining a bit of concern for 4/8 into 4/9 for excessive rain potential.

    Signal for a major Atlantic ridge seems to be on the last few runs. Hints of negative tilt with a conveyer belt or precip that extends from New England into the deep tropical Atlantic, with that conveyer belt coming to a crawl or stalling near or just east of us.

    I believe it’s these kind of setups that give New England some of their biggest rainfall events.

      1. Yup, in that scenario.

        Wet snow, rain ….. As of now, that seems to have a large precip total potential.

        It is a week out, I wonder if it will hold.

    1. Thanks again JpDave.

      I went back and checked the GFS which has the blocking ridge but still allows for the precip conveyer belt to move some to our east.

      Interested to see in which direction that heads …. More progressive or more blocky.

      1. We are due for more blocky as we have not had any this season.
        BUT the Euro strongly hints at blocking as it hangs around
        a long time. Imagine IF it hung around a tad more East??????

  34. And I’m Santa Claus hohoho 🙂 I’m just being funny. I just feel like there’s so much potential and possibilities and talk. But there’s no snow. I haven’t seen a meaningful snow event since mid Feb.

    2. Don’t forget your area missed out on the March snow, being in some bizarre snow hole.

      I’ve already explained about April threats/realities. We’re just following the pattern. That’s not going to change. Also, you’re not really correct about 3.5 inches of snow falling as only 0.5 inch on grassy surfaces. That would be pavement during the day. Grass will accumulate over 3 inches if 3.5 fell. The only exception would be if it fell in a slow rate during the day.

      For the most part though, it will come down to timing for any accumulation in the 2 cases coming up.

      1. I had a group of people with warm hair dryers In northern Bristol county last event 🙂

        1. Careful. You don’t wanna cause a power outage. 😛

          Just let nature take care of it. Even in a cold pattern any snow that falls will go poof pretty quickly. You won’t have more than a brief delay.

  35. Look at this run total snow amount for the 1st 10 days of April, especially Vermont, but the Berkshires and white mountains do pretty well also. This would be the snowiest
    period of the entire Winter/Spring season, IF this verifies.

    http://imgur.com/FrjzOiU

    1. I was just about to post that. Ridiculous snow totals for many parts of the Northeast for the first 10 days of April with three separate snowstorms next week. Even if half of these totals verified, it would still be impressive for early April, especially after the winter we just had!

  36. I think the EURO is on steroids again.
    Gives my area of CT around our just over a foot of snow.

  39. We had a few rumbles of thunder here in Plymouth, NH. Was quite muggy out this morning.

  40. The line of storms seems to be coming together pretty well to our West.
    Will they hold together? We shall see.

    1. To be sure. I think that is exactly what is happening and exactly what
      the SPC mentioned in their mesoscale discussion.

  44. Looking at 18Z NAM coming out. IMPRESSIVE digging of 500 MB and very low heights! This thing for Sunday is impressing more and more.

  46. Wow! 18Z NAM is totally different.
    Has closed 500MB low just South of SNE and had dry slots and keeps main
    slug of precip South of Boston and the main slug isn’t that much. I didn’t expect
    this. It is, however, the 18Z.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016040118&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=042

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016040118&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=045

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016040118&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=042

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016040118&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=045

    Snow

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016040118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051

    Whaaaaaaaaaaat happened?

    1. It’s just a NAM run. It shouldn’t surprise you. Check the 12km and 4km too.

  48. Too little too late on the sun here in the east. If this was June, yes. April, no way, not early April and not with this air mass.

  49. 18Z NAM for Monday way different as well. Keeps it more to the South and splits
    into 2 systems and most of precip is during the day on Monday.

    Here is the snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016040118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    If during the day and the intensity is not as great as what it once looked like,
    doubt if these numbers are achieved. Probably an inch or 2.

    BUT, again, this is the 18Z run. Dying to get a peek at the 0Z runs of all of them.

    1. Pay attention to the 12km NAM which early in the game has the best handle on this system. It doesn’t mean that the current run is the eventual outcome. I just think it’s doing the best, so far.

    2. Now you sound like me. If it said 2 feet I think your head would pop off 🙂 🙂 🙂
      Again os I’m just joshin with ya

      1. If it said 2 feet it would be time to retire that model once and for all. 😉

  51. Before anyone gets too excited for big snow amounts, even a perfect track on the Sunday morning system and a burst of heavy snow does not deliver all that much. These systems are screaming along in as progressive a pattern as you can have at this time of year. Same thing with the Monday system. I’m thinking the steadiest precip may actually be done with that thing before daylight is gone on Monday. Stuff is MOVING.

    1. I continue to see amounts becoming less and less as we get closer to this. Kinda like the last time. Necn is saying they have a tough time believing any accumulation will come about from either event. Maybe briefly grassy areas. Ooz nam will be telling

      1. That’s actually incorrect. They are NOT become less and less. And you can’t count the Euro’s few-days-in-advance overly inflated snow amounts. We’ve already established that the Euro cannot forecast snow that far out.

        The amounts are all generally similar run to run. It’s the location that changes, which is expected, because literally several miles will make a difference.

    1. If any? You mean how much… I didn’t say we would have nothing in the area. I’ve been forecasting snow possibilities in this time range for several days.

      I haven’t come up with amounts yet. Will do that tonight or tomorrow morning.

  53. Quite dark here. Just took a ride around the town with daughter as I have no idea where anything is. There sure is a ton of water out here and it looks pretty full. BlackstoneWX, I’d be interested to know if you know whether rivers and larger bodies are at or near normal for this area.

    1. Yes, everything is about right. If you drive west on Central Turnpike Road out toward the Home Depot in Oxford, there’s a ton of water in low spots on the south side of the road that stays wet about year round. It’s pretty full now when I went to the Depot last week. It’s my home away from home 😉

      1. Oh dear. Home Depot is both my sons in law home away from home.

        I saw a few paddocks somewhat flooded too so figured it was at least at normal. Thank you

  54. 18z GFS continues the same general thought process for the upcoming events. It’s still too early for detail but by later tonight (00z) we can start nailing down details for Sunday AM.

    I’m heading out for a while including a pick-up drive to Logan. Some areas will see some picturesque sky in the next little while.

  59. Big cell just west of me coming into Oxford/Sutton. Clap of thunder and the wind kicking up.

  62. Just saw some cloud to cloud lighting bolts off to the southwest with the next cluster of storms passing through New Haven County. It’s moving NE but looks like this one might miss us by a smidge to the south.

    Now if we could repeat this with snow Sunday AM, that would be great 🙂

  66. 00nam as tk said says “progressive”. Little to no accumulation Sun am. Also Monday daytime snowflakes but no accumulation. I knew nothing. Unless tk says different

        2. Lol .8 Inches bc the grounds so warm, plan on working through it, better than 40 mph winds or rain.

  69. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    407 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
    … INTENSE STORM SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. THEN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE
    REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY…BRINGING THE RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA.

    1. … SNOW BURST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
      WILL BE AN UNPRECEDENTED RARE EVENT INCORPORATING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS INTENSE LIFT AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS AS WELL AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSNOW.

  72. The first system coming through is by far the more interesting event. Maybe so much with the snow but the wind. I expect there to be scattered power outages across SNE.

    1. We shall see. NWS tends to over hype these events. Could be it happens as
      they say. We need to monitor.

  73. I know we should take these events 1 day at a time,but the Euro has a biggie for 4/8 that has trended Eastward and almost dumps on Boston. Bring major snow Eastward to about Worcester.

    http://imgur.com/fWnAO9E

    1. Dave one of our meteorologist here in CT Sam Sampieri was saying that 4/8 event you mentioned could end as a snow.

  75. 6z GFS has more snowfall between the two systems and 6z NAM.
    Being April unless that snow really comes down hard this will be on grassy surfaces.

  76. If someone could post the EURO may for the third system from the EURO that would be great many thanks. Yesterday 12z run showed quite a bit of snowfall for 10 day period for Berkshires Northwest CT and Vermont.

  78. Probably way overdone and will not pan out to those amounts but that is an impressive total snowfall amounts for the three events anytime during the winter but especially in April.

    1. The hype only comes from lack of understanding and communicating, regardless of what the outcome ends up. 😉

      1. A burst of accumulating snow and then the amount is Less than
        an inch? I call that hype. You can call it what you like.
        And hurricane force winds. I call that hype. Models I look
        at have gusts to 40 mph tops.

        1. A few locations will top 50 MPH, and isolated 60 MPH gusts are possible. The problem is, as soon as most people see these #’s they think everybody is going to have 60 MPH winds all day long.

          That’s where the problem is, though not totally. But again, education is key, and that responsibility lies with the media. This never seemed to be a problem until we had 50 zillion sources of information and little control over any of it.

          1. Seriously though, don’t you think a headline
            of HURRICANE FORCE WINDS is a little over the top? 😀

            1. Yes, I agree that is over the top. And that’s a glaring example of where the media is at fault.

              YOU have enough common sense to not take that headline the wrong way, but many do not, unfortunately, therefore the avoidance of such a headline would be more beneficial.

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