Monday Forecast

78 Comments

2:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)…
A windy and cool Monday as the pressure gradient between a deepening low in eastern Canada and high pressure to the west remains fairly strong. Cold air aloft will still allow for some cloud development, though there will also be sunshine. A very chilly night is upcoming but I believe the wind may stay active enough and the air dry enough to prevent frost in all but the most sheltered valley locations. A wave of low pressure will pass south of the region early Wednesday, and will bring at least some cloudiness into the region later Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps a period of rain, which will favor southern MA southward. High pressure builds in later in the week with fabulous spring weather.
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Areas of frost possible in deepest valleys. Lows middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs in the 60s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight mainly southern MA southward. Lows upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a chance of rain mainly southeastern MA and RI in the morning. Clearing trend midday and afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind W to variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)…
The weekend of May 21-22 will be dry and fairly warm, though there is a slight risk that a weak trough from the north may shift the wind onshore on May 22 for somewhat cooler air in eastern coastal areas. Watching a possible upper low to the south May 23-24 that would bring some wet weather at some point if it got close enough. Fair and warmer weather should be back by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)…
Fair weather is expected for most of this period, though there may be a few showers and thunderstorms at some point around the May 28-29 period, which is part of the Memorial Day Weekend. There is a long way to go to fine-tune this forecast as that weekend approaches.

78 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  5. Thanks TK.

    My mother would always say that when she was growing up there would almost always be unsettled weather around or on Memorial Day. Hopefully this upcoming will be an exception.

  6. Answers to yesterday’s quizzes.

    1) A small but vigorous whirlwind formed in a clear sky is called _____
    A. Zephyr
    B. Dust Devil
    C. Mesocyclone
    D. Williwaw
    The correct answer is B.

    2) In most cases, the greater the difference in air pressure over an area, the greater the _____
    A. Wind Speed
    B. Temperature Change
    C. Pollen Count
    D. Flood Potential

    The correct answer is A.

    3) The May 18, 1980 volcanic explosion of Mt. ST. Helens hurled rocks and solid ash in a “stone wind” up to ___________
    A. 75 MPH
    B. 150 MPH
    C. 300 MPH
    D. 600 MPH

    The correct answer is C.

    There was only one winner, TK!

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Still wondering where oh where the break in the pattern is and when oh when will
    it warm up for good. Sure, we have a few decent days and then crap.

    How about an extended stretch of nice weather? Oh wait, we live in New England.
    That doesn’t happen until the 4th of July!!!!!

    1. If the GFS is to be believed and even towards day 10 on the 00z EURO, perhaps you’ll need your window A/C units in sometime within 10 to 14 days. Looks like 80s or even warmer potential around the 25th, give or take a couple days.

      I wouldn’t be surprised if we suddenly switched to hot weather.

      2. I sure hope so! I’m staying at a Cape beachfront property the first weekend in June and would prefer not to have to pack my woolies and thermals 😉

    2. Second week of June has been my observation.
      Back half of this week looks ok, then next week looks better, too. But I hear you. I usually I have full leaf out by now. Not this year, at least not fully open, bust out leaves. Until the nights stop getting down into the 30’s, I don’t expect full green up and leaf out. Yesterday was down right cold with the cloud cover and wind.

  9. And we’re back below 50 for the water temperature yet again.
    All it takes is some cooler weather and strong NW winds.

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 48.4 °F

  10. This is essentially it for the pattern. The low pressure potential for next week is a leftover in a transitional pattern.

    1. A strong SW wind in the Summer has the same effect.
      We can go from Water temps near 70 to water temps in the upper 50s to
      low 60s just like that!

    1. If I am not mistaken, that photo was taken from near the top of
      Mt. Mansfield looking over at Spruce Peak. I have skied both peaks in my
      distant past. (read that in the 60s) 😀

  12. Thanks TK. Felt a little like winter outside this morning. Liking the late week forecast though.

    Given June 1 is only a couple weeks off, it’s time to start thinking about the summer hurricane season. Levi Cowan, who runs the Tropical Tidbits website, has an excellent video discussion up on his homepage. If you get 15 minutes to spare, give it a watch. I very much agree with him.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

    1. Thank you.
      I took the Reader’s Digest tour. What I got out of it all was
      that he expects Near to Slightly Above normal Activity for the Gulf and entire Eastern Coast of the US.

      We shall see. In any event, it should be far more active than last Hurricane
      Season. The US mainland is WAY overdue for a direct hit. The South Coast
      of Florida is extremely vulnerable.

  14. This is pretty Brutal for 5/16 !!!!!

    All AM obs from Logan

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.36056N 71.01056W

    Mostly Cloudy and Breezy
    50.0 °F
    Last Updated: May 16 2016, 10:54 am EDT
    Mon, 16 May 2016 10:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Breezy
    Temperature: 50.0 °F (10.0 °C)
    Dewpoint: 25.0 °F (-3.9 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 38 %
    Wind: from the Northwest at 21.9 gusting to 33.4 MPH (19 gusting to 29 KT)
    Wind Chill: 43 F (6 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1011.4 mb
    Altimeter: 29.87 in Hg

  15. Saw the movie Concussion last night. Very well done. Excellent movie.
    Will Smith was superb.

      1. Yes, my wife and I watched this in Disgust one evening last
        season. Goodell made us both SICK!!!

        The NFL as a league SUCKS!!! Money Grubbing bleep bleeps!!

        They are “trying” to do something about CTE now ONLY because they got backed into a corner and were forced to do something
        by their own players.

  16. I dragged that cold front with me from St. Paul. I can’t seem to escape the cold. Not that I mind. If the sun is out I actually enjoy weather in the 50s any time during the year.

    Thanks for sharing the Eric Fisher photo from Mt. Mansfield, a peak I’ve bagged many times.

  18. I prefer rainy days over variable cloudy days in the 50s with gusty winds. This blows chunks.

  19. Mt. Washington summit is reporting gusts of close to 100mph, with sustained wind over 70mph. Temps in the low to mid-20s; windchill below zero. About 5 inches of snow fell overnight and a few more inches expected today. But, there’s light at the end of the tunnel. The summit is expected to be in the upper 50s/low 60s by this weekend.

  20. As you would expect, I love this weather. Always seems to be one last chilly gusty variably cloudy spring day before the real warm weather set in. Today is that day. 🙂

  21. Good afternoon all. Just came in.

    It is decidedly cool out, But I have to agree somewhat with Joshua, when the sun is out, it is very comfortable out. I have no problems with this whatsoever. The wind doesn’t even bother me. As long as it is NOT RAINING and the sun is at least in and out, I am fine with the cool weather.

    btw, 1PM at the PIT (Logan), 54 Degrees on 5/16. A tad on the chilly side for sure.

    Best my care thermometer read was 57, but then dropped to 54.

  23. Last night, Killington received one of their highest snowfall totals of the year from one storm, in the amount of…….5.” That shows how bad their winter was in terms of natural snowfall. That area of VT was particularly devoid of snowfall, missing storms to the north and missing out on the few coastals.

    1. Strange season to be sure.

      We’ll probably pay for it with some sort of horrible Tropical event
      this Summer. We’re about due. I sure hope not. If not that, there will
      probably be a devastating tornado somewhere in the area.

  24. been accepted which I all ready told you guys about, but now I got the scholarship which pays for most of my expenses to go down to Nantucket for marine and Ecological research, so now i am now able to afford it. 😀

    1. Boston buoy water temperature:

      Water Temperature (WTMP): 48.6 °F

      NO warm up today whatsoever.

  28. Hopefully will have those thunderstorms to track in the time period TK mentioned.
    GFS just like with snow threats going back and forth with that thunderstorm potential in that time period. Yesterday it looked more impressive but its way too early and will change so many times between now and then.

  30. Still ONLY 55 at Logan as of 4PM. Looks like the high, Unless it creeped up to
    56 in between obs. 😀

  32. The last hour to 90 minutes have become sunnier, at least in Marshfield and it feels like it may have added 2 or 3F to the temp. Or at least it feels that way.

    2. It puzzles me that NWS had “sunny” or “mostly sunny” on all their zone forecasts yesterday for today. One of the best ways to forecast diurnal cloud cover is to look upstream, knowing where the upper trough will be in 24 hours. If there is a plethora of diurnal clouds in the zone that will be over you the next days, there is a way better than even chance you are going to see at least some. It’s a little bit Don Kent style, but it works. This was the basis for my sky condition forecast today.

    1. Have to wait one more minute here in Taunton. Sun sets here at 7:59 tonight. 8 pm tomorrow night!

  34. Wind is gusting pretty good outside my window. Mid May and were talking about wind chills.

  35. “Pay no attention to that 12z GFS behind the curtain!” … Bad run. Ensembles not even close.

  36. As we now know quite a number of locales in Northern New England received fairly significant snowfall overnight and even during the day. Mountaintops got the most, but valleys didn’t miss out entirely on accumulating snow. On May 16th! I was only kidding 6 weeks ago when I wrote about the possibility of June snow. Highly unlikely, of course. But, given this spring’s trajectory one never knows.

  38. Good news if you don’t like 3 H weather with this tweet from Eric Fisher. Will see if it happens.
    New Euro Weeklies in. Nothing really screaming sustained warmth. Think we’ll just be dodging back/forth either side of avg well into June.

    1. I want to get to the beach…. or at least be able to use my pool even with the solar cover. that pool water is in the 50s

  40. I’ve said for the last couple of weeks that I’ve been concerned for the summer. Seems like models show some flip to warmer weather and it never comes. 2009 again?
    Although I will say those euro weeklies are the weakest part of the product. We’ll see.
    Maybe TK can talk me off the 2009 ledge.

    1. Not even close to 2009. That was a wet pattern and very cloudy. This is not.

      Also, the performance of the weeklies has been so-so at best.

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