Friday Forecast

261 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)…
Though many want to focus on days 2 through 4, the holiday weekend, our main focus today should be day 1, which is where the only threat of unsettled weather will be. But there will be folks fortunate enough to have today off that may cancel beach plans after looking at a weather app and seeing “thunderstorms” there. It’s important to focus on the details, which those apps fall short of being able to do. But fortunately, you have come to the right place. The focus will follow this shameless self-plug for the blog. But you have indeed come to the right place for a description of what the weather is expected to do in basic terms, with more technical explanation in the comments that follow. So what is really going on today? A brief push of humidity ahead of and accompanying a disturbance, which will send a cold front eastward across the region tonight. Ahead of this, as the air grows more humid during the day, a few isolated showers may occur. The main action is likely to come in 1 or 2 clusters or a possible line of storms tonight which in whatever form it takes will enter western New England as early as sunset, then traverse east and northeast across the southern New England forecast region through around midnight. I must stress here that there may be a large portion of the region that see only showers or a brief garden variety thunderstorm, but the potential exists for some of these thunderstorms to be strong to severe. This will occur on a much more limited basis, so while most do not see severe weather, those that day could see a storm that packs a punch with the potential for damaging winds and hail. Though lightning is not considered when determining whether or not a storm is severe, any thunderstorm produces lightning and any lightning that is of the cloud-to-ground variety is potential dangerous or deadly, so shelter from that should always be found, regardless of the severe weather threat. It would benefit you to stay tuned to local news updates by later today and this evening to see what the details of the event turn out to be. I’ll be updating my WHW Facebook page as well as the comment section below tonight as well. Whatever occurs tonight will settle down overnight and no more than a quick back of showers/storms may visit Nantucket and Cape Cod first thing Saturday morning as clouds depart the remainder of the region, if they have not done so already, and leave the door open for a fabulous Fourth Of July Weekend for the remainder of Saturday, all of Sunday, and the holiday itself on Monday, with dominant sunshine during the day, warmth, and fairly low humidity. Tuesday will see an intensification of the feel of summer, as the heat arrives.
TODAY: Patchy clouds but lots of sun this morning and midday. Increasing clouds and less sun this afternoon. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs upper 70s South Coast, lower to middle 80s elsewhere. Increasingly humid. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Showers/thunderstorms likely from west to east late evening to midnight, ending overnight. Patchy fog late. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Strong winds possible near any storms.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy early with a risk of showers/thunderstorms briefly Nantucket and Cape Cod, then mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs in the 80s, few upper 70s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing later in the day.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s, few upper 50s interior valleys. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light W.
MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)…
Eastward movement of a ridge of high pressure and a lifting of the jet stream to the north allows for fair and hot weather with higher humidity July 6. Disturbances bring a chance of showers/thunderstorms at times July 7-8, not as hot. Low pressure moving through eastern Canada will send slightly cooler air into the region with dry conditions for July 9, before an approaching disturbance returns clouds and a risk of showers to the region by July 10. Timing of these systems is a little uncertain with the jet stream forecast to be nearby, so that as well as details will be fine-tuned with time.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)…
Warm to hot and mainly dry with limited shower and thunderstorm chances as a ridge of high pressure establishes itself over the southeastern US and pushes the jet stream mostly just north of the region heading for the middle of July.

261 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. 10z HRRR has some pretty good parameters for severe potential this evening.

  4. Here is a REPOST of things posted by JJ and JPD earlier…
    Heading to the beach! I’ll check in mobile. 🙂

    JimmyJames says:
    July 1, 2016 at 5:25 AM

    SPC outlook for today. This will be updated around 9am this morning. Hudson River Valley of NYC 5% tornado chance.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    JP Dave says:
    July 1, 2016 at 6:13 AM

    Good morning. Now we have wording from the NWS:

    If any storms are able to become strong to
    severe, biggest threat will be for localized wind damage, but
    there is a secondary concern for hail given cooling aloft. Lastly,
    a low risk exists for an isolated tornado given SREF/NCAR ensembles
    showing pretty good probabilities for 0 to 1 km helicity of 150+
    and LCL/s below 800 meters.

    JP Dave says:
    July 1, 2016 at 6:38 AM

    SREF significant tornado ingredients

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f024.gif

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f027.gif

    JimmyJames says:
    July 1, 2016 at 6:47 AM (Edit)

    I would not be surprised if there is a tornado warning in the northeast today. I would favor west of SNE at the moment.

    JP Dave says:
    July 1, 2016 at 6:48 AM

    CAPE in Boston area is approaching 2,000 from 3-6Z. It actually goes up
    over night. Can’t be ruled out anywhere.
    Reply

    JimmyJames says:
    July 1, 2016 at 6:53 AM

    Will see what the SPC shows around 9am with the latest update on this.
    5% tornado chance west of CT and MA in the Hudson River Valley of NY.
    2% tornado chance tornado extends a little east of CT River Valley. It is a low risk here but a risk none the less.

    JP Dave says:
    July 1, 2016 at 6:59 AM

    We have seen them in the 2% risk zone.
    Reply

    JP Dave says:
    July 1, 2016 at 7:24 AM

    Here is the 4KM NAM supercell composite

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/06/NE/NAM4KMNE_con_scp_023.png

    and significant tornado parameter

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/06/NE/NAM4KMNE_con_stp_023.png

    For our neck of the woods, this is serious stuff.

    JP Dave says:
    July 1, 2016 at 7:25 AM

    Most unstable CAPE

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/06/NE/NAM4KMNE_con_mucape_023.png

  5. Thanks TK!

    Today officially begins the 2016-17 snow season…believe it or not. Any hail 0.1″ or more would be included in any snow totals. I don’t believe Logan has ever received more than a trace of hail. Not totally sure on that though.

      1. Whew, glad we opened our road salt bids for the winter this week! Can never be too ready! 😉

  6. Thanks, TK!
    Happy July and extended Fourth of July weekend to all!
    Happy Canada Day, especially to our friends in Kimmirut where it’s bright and sunny, 12.1 degrees C with ice chunks in the inlet.

    1. I had to smile. Little do our friends in Kimmirut know how much attention they receive from us! Happy Fourth of July weekend to you also!

  8. Good morning and thank you TK for that most informative and detailed discussion.
    You just don’t get that elsewhere and we really do appreciate it.

    As I walked through the parking lot this morning, my body could actually feel the
    rise in humidity. Just doesn’t feel dry anymore.

    I remain concerned about tonight, despite the SPC keeping the main threat
    to the West of us. There is significant shear in the atmosphere and all we need to do is get enough instability (which is forecast) to pop a decent T-storm and rotation is a distinct possibility. Does NOT mean any will rotate, just that the possibility exists.
    And when a decent storm rotates, well we all know what can happen then. See Revere
    a few years back.

    Btw, in looking at the 0Z Euro, there appeared to be significant discrepancies among the severe parameters. Wondering if there was some sort of SNAFU with that run.

    1. 10% for here seems a little low. 10% of a severe thunderstorm might sound
      a bit more reasonable? No? 😀

  10. Thanks TK ! Excellent discussion !

    I guess my one “concern” for this particular event would be if there’s a rotating storm anywhere after 8:30pm tonight that promps a tornado warning, the warning for a given area will be occurring in the dark. Timing on this seems later in the day than usual.

    1. That is a HUGE concern. And yes, in Eastern sections, virtually the entire
      threat will be after dark.

      1. I’m just envisioning the major TV stations breaking into programming, as they always do. Its now dark and they are relaying that a storm is showing rotation by doplar radar and has been warned.

        If it happens, I will be interested to see how the TV mets communicate it to the public. Not so much the actual tornado warning, but the other stuff (safety, etc)

    2. I’ll echo those concerns, Tom, as they crossed my mind while I was reading TK’s discussion. I’m hoping everyone will be here tonight as I find this to be by far the most up to the minute place to get information. However, being the start of a huge weekend for our country, I suspect most will be out and about celebrating.

      As I say that, I also realize that at sunset, when the concern will be, many will be in open fields to view fireworks displays. I know there is one in our neighboring town as well as many others.

      1. We’re going out tonight. No even sure we’ll be home before the
        main action. Hopefully, but not sure. My wife and friends will
        have to excuse me as I check My Smart phone for all of the latest info. Will be glued to the Nexrad with the radial velocity display. 😀

  11. That map the SPC posts I wonder is that the percentage chance of a severe thunderstorm or just thunderstorms in general. Between 20z and 4z a good chunk of SNE in that 40% category and 20z and 0z 70% chance northwest CT western MA.

  13. I believe WxWatcher mentioned the HRRR

    Here are a few severe parameters from the latest 11Z run.

    SuperCell Composite

    http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/11/NE/HRRRNE_con_scp_015.png

    Significant Tornado

    http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/11/NE/HRRRNE_con_stp_015.png

    Ladies and gentlemen, believe me for our area, these parameters are extremely HIGH
    and represent a serious threat. We cannot take this lightly.

    These are even higher than the 6Z 4KM NAM run.

    Waiting on 12Z HRRR and the 12Z 4KM NAM.

    1. I think JJ may be correct. There may, indeed, be at least a tornado warned
      storm somewhere in NE tonight, whether or not there is actually one on the ground. AND, there “may” even be 1 or 2 that actually do touch down.

      We need to continue to monitor all of the latest data.

  14. Part of their discussion. Another update from SPC will come in around 12:30pm today.
    INITIALLY
    DISCRETE CELLS WILL EVOLVE GRADUALLY TOWARD MIXED DISCRETE/LINEAR
    MODES…THEN MOSTLY LINEAR…AS ACTIVITY PROCEEDS EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK
    AREA. MOST FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS AND ENVIRONMENTAL
    PARAMETERS SUPPORTING TORNADO AND SUPERCELL-RELATED HAIL POTENTIAL
    WILL BE OVER 5% AND 2% TORNADO-RISK AREAS. ALL SVR MODES WILL BE
    POSSIBLE ACROSS MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND…

  15. My mom and step dad our leaving Ocean City, MD today after spending the week down there for their 11 year wedding anniversary. I mentioning this to my mom and I hope they get home before the storms which where I am looking to be coming in just after 6pm.

  17. I thought the 5% tornado chance would have moved east some. As said earlier don’t let your guard down with a 2% tornado chance. Will see when the next update comes out around 12:30pm has to say.

  18. Great discussion, TK!!!
    And thanks to everyone for adding your expertise and the links.
    It gets very exciting here when there’s explosive weather occurring or impending.

    Looks to be an interesting and fun next 12 hours!

  19. Worcester postponed their fireworks from tonight to tomorrow night. The decision was made last night.

  20. Smart decision. A lot of fireworks displays here in CT have been cancelled for tonight. You just don’t want a large group of people out watching the fireworks and run that risk of a thunderstorm that could come by. A thunderstorm doesn’t have to be severe or produce a tornado to be dangerous.

  21. When talking about the percent chances, keep in mind that the percentages are based on an average day of weather through the entire year. It is not a 2%, 5%, etc. chance of “X” event happening today, but rather compared to the average weather day for the entire year. So while 2% sounds low, it is rather high compared to an average annual weather day (in that it is comparing to the chance of “X” event happening in a composite of days beginning in January and running through December).

    I realize scientifically why they rate the chances in this manner, but I think it is confusing for the general public. The chances of a tornado happening for a day in July is much higher than a day in January obviously, so adding an additional 2% risk on top of that chance represents more than a 2% risk of it actually happening.

    I hope this makes some sense, but it was the best I could do from a layman’s perspective.

    1. That makes perfect sense and is very welcome indeed. Thank you. I have copied and saved.

    3. From the SPC site, a bit of clarification: It is a 2% or 5% probability of a
      tornado occurring within 25 miles of your location.

      Here is their example:

      As an example, if you have a 15% probability for tornadoes, this means you have a 15% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of your location. This may seem like a low number, but a tornado is very uncommon at any one location. Normally, your chances of getting hit by a tornado or other severe weather are small, purely based on statistical average. Let’s say you have a 1% statistical (climatology) history of tornadoes within 25 miles on this day, which still is large. Having a 15% probability means 15 times the normal odds of a tornado nearby, meaning it should be taken seriously. The probabilities for severe thunderstorm wind and hail also have the same meaning as they do for tornadoes, but typically will be higher numbers than for tornadoes, since they are much more common.

  22. The 12Z NAM is cooking and is out to 4Z.
    Shows MAX convection in Eastern sections between 2Z and 4Z.

    Cape approaching 2,000 joules even at those hours.

    Waiting for frames on some other sites for the more interesting convective
    parameters.

  24. Severe parameters are more robust with the 4KM NAM than the regular NAM (32KM).

    I will post a few in a moment. Waiting for a few frames.

    AS it is, regular NAM has supercell composite parameter of 3 and Significant tornado
    parameter of 1-2 across the area.

  27. I researched the SPC website a bit more, and have a bit of clarification on the probabilities.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html#Convective%20Outlooks

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=allTorn

    The risk forecasts are based off of long term climatology occurances. If you use the second link above, it shows over a 30-year period the percentage of an event occuring on a particular date. For instance, in central and eastern MA, over the past 30 years, there is a 0.2% chance of a tornado occuring on July 1, based on actual severe weather reports. So when SPC issues a 2% or 5% chance of a tornado occurring today for our area, those numbers actually represent a multiple of 10 or 25 times more of a chance of a tornado occurring as compared to the 30 year average.

    Again, it does not mean there is a 2% or 5% chance of a tornado occuring today, it means the forecaster believes that as compared to climatology, it is 10 or 25 times more likely to occur today, as compared to any other July 1 over the past 30 years.

  28. Those are impressive numbers for this part of the country that the model is spitting out.

    1. You notice on the tornado that there are small areas of yellow. These would be in state of flux, so a yellow area could easily pass over a given area in between hourly displays. Still dangerous.

  30. Just stepping outside I feel the a difference from yesterday as the humidity is coming up. The humidity is one ingredient you need for thunderstorm development.

  32. 13Z HRRR (still running) appears to have slowed down the progression of the action
    a bit.

  33. Thank you, TK!

    Indeed, Happy Canada Day to our friends in Kimmirut, Nunavut Province of Canada. The kids there must absolutely love their brief summer. And, Happy July 4th weekend to all at WHW. Let’s hope the 4th celebration can continue beyond this year. I am saddened and very disappointed to hear that sponsors have balked and there’s a chance we won’t have a July 4th celebration on the Esplanade next year. When I see the CEO salaries and payouts at some of these companies I cringe; tens and sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars and they can’t afford to sponsor an event that is truly of the people, by the people, and for the people. Insanity if you ask me.

    Philip, I’ve got my measuring stick ready. Let the 2016-2017 snowfall season begin.

  35. These time frames being posted are past peak heating so there looks to be some pretty good dynamics in play here.

    1. Pretty good? Ya think? The instability INCREASES after dark.
      Dynamics associated with mid level trof and increasing shear moving
      in from the west. (From NWS)

      Going to be a mighty interesting night. MY guess is the SPC will move
      the slight risk area farther Eastward with the next update and also the 5% and 2% tornado risk likewise farther East. Unless the 4KM NAM and the HRRR are out to lunch.

      BTW, even the GFS has somewhat joined the party.

  36. 10AM Boston dew point already up to 63.

    Moving on up. Fueling the fire along with reasonable amounts of sunshine.

    1. Yes, had to do some shopping downtown. Walked about 10 minutes from my office and began to melt like the wicked witch. The uncomfortable index is rising.

      1. My wife will feel it big time. We are supposed to go out
        to dinner tonight and then cards at friends. My wife has not
        been feeling well and the heat and humidity will not be good.
        Have not yet installed ACs. This weekend sometime.

        We kept all windows open all night. The house was cold this
        morning when I shut all of them and lowered the shades.

        “hopefully” that will keep the house cool enough today.

  37. Some convection popping South of Long Island NY. How much of Eastern MA will
    they clip? to be determined.

  40. Just looking at the 12z NAM even at 6z CAPE values are greater than 1,000 for most of SNE.

    1. I think we have a rough night in store for us.
      We’ll have out own fireworks display tonight.

      1. Mother Nature could very well be the fireworks show tonight especially if the data were looking at this morning happens.

  41. JP Dave, Hope Mrs. OS feels better soon. Heat and humidity can feel oppressive to some, just as cold and bitter wind chill can feel brutal to some (probably most).

  43. Its now turned cloudy where I am and small areas of showers in southern CT.
    Looking back further west you could see some showers starting to fire in parts of western NY state.

  45. Boston dew point inexplicably dropped 3 degrees to 60 with the wind right
    out of the South.

    Actually, it is that south wind that will contribute to the helicity.

    Have a look at these 2 cross over charts

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2016070112/012/crossover.us_ne.png

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2016070112/015/crossover.us_ne.png

    There is a period where there is significant shear from surface to 850mb to 500 mb.
    Later the 500 mb is not as pronounced a shear.

    But there is a period there where it is clearly enough to cause rotation of storms
    if a strong enough one were to develop.

    1. Water temp just South of RI is 68.5, so the South Wind isn’t be cooled
      as much as earlier in the season.

      Boston Buoy just under 64.

  48. I am especially thankful for everyone’s combined wisdom and expertise on days like today. I am scared of snow yes. But I am frightened of tornadoes!! Thanks to all for frequent updates and explanations – even understandable to the lay(wo)man!

  49. The one good thing is once this front clears were going to have a great weekend. We just unfortunately got to get through some rough weather this evening into tonight.

    1. I “could” see this expanded Eastward is later on the SPC sees that
      storms hold together and the dynamics shift. We shall see.

      Wondering, if at the least, a Severe Thunderstorm watch is issued for Eastern
      Sections.

  52. Funny, though. The HRRR has been ever so slowly backing off on the Tornado parameter with each successive run 13Z onward.

    Here is the latest 16Z run.

    http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/16/NE/HRRRNE_con_stp_011.png

    This represents a considerable back off. So, this either means that the threat
    has really lessened (yet SPC still issued a watch) OR the HRRR has suddenly lost it
    with this set up. I would like to see the 18Z 4KM NAM.

  53. I was not expecting a tornado watch nor was I expecting an upgrade to an enhanced risk. Now its wait and see as activity is developing off to the west. If the activity holds as it moves across SNE I would expect a severe thunderstorm watch east of the tornado watch.

    1. Yes, with wording like “an isolated tornado or two is also possible”, IF not actually expanding the TW Eastward. One Caveat, the HRRR has been backing off on the tornado threat, so perhaps there will be no threat?? Who knows for sure.

    1. WHAT!*(@#^&*!@^#&*^!@&*#%*&!@%^#&!@^#&*!@^#&*

      NOPE, we’re too into what’s ahead for tonight.

      Is that above link even possible? That is clearly RECORD heat!!!!!!
      And IF with humidity, DEATHLY HEAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Happy you checked in. Been missing you lately. 😀

      And yes, we are most interested in your thoughts re:
      Tornado and/or severe thunderstorm threats/possibilities.

      What do you make of the HRRR backing off some? Is it out to lunch
      Or onto something? (Marine influence? Dry air? Not as much instability?
      something?)

      Many thanks

      I’ll be in a meeting for a couple of hours. BOO!!!!

      1. I’ve been tied up with a few things lately. Have to head into the office early today, so I haven’t looked at much yet this afternoon. I was just taking a quick look at the GFS to see what the pattern is for the next week and noticed that Saturday looked ridiculous.

        I’ll have more thoughts on this evening after I get into the office around 4:30.

  56. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan.
    Not surprised… SPC has upgraded western CT to an “enhanced risk” for severe storms this evening. Impressive instability/shear combo.

    Now does that instability shear combo go to the east of the watch box? If it does won’t be just a western SNE thunderstorm threat.

      1. The last line is mine. The above is the tweet from Hanrahan.
        I see from the radar you linked posted Dave the storms are firing west of the watch box. I got sun here and this will just further destabilize the atmosphere.

  57. I am looking at good deal of instability on the 12z GFS next weekend and if there is no cap in the atmosphere and front comes through during peak heating we could have some interesting weather.
    Lets get through today then worry about that later.

  58. I would like to second Getting Better’s thanks to all of you for the combined expertise and wisdom. I am also scared of tornadoes, especially if the risk is after dark. The watch area appears to be just west of where I am so does not include the areas just south of Worcester which is fine with me.

    We have had pretty solid cloud cover for better than an hour now with peaks of sun. As of about 15 minutes ago, cloud cover is solid with some sprinkles. I’m wondering if this will zap energy for tonight.

    And I cannot remember which wise person on here said he thought all fireworks for tonight should be cancelled, but I wholeheartedly agree.

  59. Its been filtered sunshine in the last few minutes where I am but a noticeable up tick in the humidity.
    A watch means conditions are favorable but nothing imminent. When a warning is issued then its occurring or is imminent.

  60. Healthy line of thunderstorms moving through Pennsylvania and upstate New York – looks like a mobile Siegfriedstellung. I think the coast will mostly be spared of severe action as many storms dissipate over time, but any locale west of 128, watch out.

    1. Smiling at your Siegfriedstellung!!

      I had seen that line. I am curious whether these clouds, etc will diminish tonight’s risk????

  61. I’m not holding my breath for any of these storms to make it even inside 495, at least in their severe forms. Tornado watch for far western NE and NY state. Nothing east of there, not even a severe thunderstorm watch. Time will tell.

    1. Based on absolutely nothing but gut (on my part) which is basically baseless, I’m inclined to agree. Of late, we have been seeing them fall apart along the CT river which is about where the current watch ends. That said, I do believe that it is better to ere on the side of caution and cancel the fireworks.

      1. Not so fast this time. I make a prediction that there will, indeed, be a STW posted for Eastern sections. The instability maintains itself well after sun down. Between increased shear and the base of the trough coming through (shortwave).

        1. I’m just surprised there are no watches posted in eastern sections given the obvious instability parameters that have been showing in guidance for a few runs now.

            1. First, you are NEVER full of crap. Second, sometimes I think I try to psych mother nature although it never seems to work 😉

  62. Sporadic convection popping up in Eastern Sections, well ahead of the main event. 😀

  63. I don’t know how it will affect things, but there’s definitely a dewpoint front that’s set up. Mid to high 60 dewpoints in CT, SE mass and the cape, mid to upper 50s northwest of that.

  65. A couple severe thunderstorm warnings in the tornado watch box but have not seen a tornado warning yet. One warned cell going northeast will miss me.

    3. I work for a new company and I was not sure of there release policy. The owner walked the building this morning at 9am, checked in with everyone then left and said he a good weekend. I was bummed he didn’t say we could leave early. I really can’t complain, I work 3 miles from home now. Well he called back 10 minutes latter laughing saying he forget to tell everyone we could leave at noon….

  68. Dave I am looking at that storm near Poughkeepsie and that storm looks like its trying to form a bit of a hook. Its moving fast to the northeast at 30mph.

  69. Tom, you mentioned humidity ahead of everything. DP is 66 here. I finally gave in and turned AC on just to get the “wet” feeling out of the house.

    I’m watching the popups on the radar too.

    I think I need to give myself the afternoon off. I’m having trouble concentrating on anything but here and the radar anyway.

    1. Go for it Vicki (taking the afternoon off from work) 🙂 🙂

      Yes, it’s nearly oppressive now.

      1. I couldn’t make myself do it. I’m almost finished with job I was working on so will call it quits…at the normal time 🙁

        But I think there is a mojito waiting for me

  70. The reason I point out that humidity front …

    I watched on bostonchannel the most recent weathercast they have on there. In it is the HRRR radar simulation and it shows an intense line of broken storms firing this evening near SE CT and onto eastern LI and moving NE into eastern and southeastern Mass, kind of along where this dewpoint front is and ahead of the main cold front.

    I don’t know how accurate it is, but it caught my attention.

  71. Thanks, TK.

    Mostly cloudy w/a few breaks of sun here in Sudbury. It has gotten windy in the past few hours and the humidity feels like it’s gone up.

    I tend to agree w/JP Dave – I have a feeling that at least a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will go up at some point. Maybe it hasn’t gone up yet because the potentially strong storms won’t get here ’til later. But, then, I could be wrong – and the storms could go poof! as they head east. Although I have noticed recently that storms seem to fire up as they get closer to the coast sometimes, prob’ly when there is an ocean front around. In any case – I too am not liking severe weather at night – can’t see what’s coming. But that’s the weather. Unpredictable. Scattered showers and maybe thunder around MA now.

  72. Dave good eye that storm near Poughkeepsie now upgraded to tornado warning.
    Storm still looks to stay northwest of me.

    2. I am always impressed, JPD, with your eye. I know I’ve said it a hundred times but believe it cannot be said too often.

        1. You’re being kind. I looked at the Radial velocity radar display and saw colors moving towards the radar and away from the radar. That equals rotation. My only question was how strong was it. Evidently it got strong enough to warrant the warning. Now we have to see IF there was an actual touch down.

  75. There is nothing interfering with that storm. It has plenty of unstable air to tap out ahead of it. I got to think it maintains this strength the tornado warning will be extended into Litchfield County CT. Those individual supercells you got to watch.

  76. JJ thank storm seems to be a right turner. Is it headed your way or close to you?
    Watch carefully.

  81. Map looks similar to the one you posted yesterday with the 15z run of the SREF.
    We got the tornado warned cell just over the CT boarder into the Hudson River Valley then I am noticing another individual cell moving north with a severe thunderstorm warning near NYC area. Behind that looks like more of a line of storms forming.

  82. 18Z 4KM NAM slows things down and has main threat 4Z-5Z

    Supercell Composite

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/18/NE/NAM4KMNE_con_scp_010.png

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/18/NE/NAM4KMNE_con_scp_011.png

    Significant tornado parameter

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/18/NE/NAM4KMNE_con_stp_010.png

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/18/NE/NAM4KMNE_con_stp_011.png

    Boston and points Soutwest between 4Z and 5Z watch out.

  83. That storm with the warning in NYC area Upton has decided to expand the severe thunderstorm warning to parts of Fairfield County in CT. Have not seen NWS Albany extended that tornado warning.

  85. Severe thunderstorm warning just north of me Vicki. That storm right now is not showing signs of rotation as it once did over the Hudson River Valley of NY.

  86. Hey all! Haven’t posted in a while. Can’t remember when it’s been so dry. Lawns are all dead…which saves me from mowing. Rain never seems to make it here. Well I should says a good medium all day rain doesn’t make it here. Fun fact: the nations birthday is actually July 2. This date was when Independence was actually declared. Later all!

    1. Hi WeatherWiz and indeed it is July 2. This is probably one of my two favorite facts re our birth.

      http://founders.archives.gov/documents/Adams/04-02-02-0016

      My second is that on the 50th birthday of the nation they were so remarkably instrumental in founding, both Adams and Jefferson passed away – within five hours of each other. It is said that the men carrying notification to the others family passed enroute.

      http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/thomas-jefferson-and-john-adams-die

      Some of Adams’ last words were “Jefferson still survives.”

      No question in my mind that more than just simple coincidence was at play here.

    1. That’s 2 in the watch area and I think we’re just getting started.

      Thanks Tom.

      I had to take a break and do some chores, including installing an AC
      on the quick so my wife can get ready for dinner.

      1. Glad you were able to get that AC in. Looks like you’ll also need it the middle of next week.

        I think that storm might be headed in the vicinity of Manchester, VT which is a nice town in south central Vermont.

    1. Well, fwiw, the HRRR continues to back off on the severe parameters.
      20Z HRRR has reduced the CAPE about in half. Mostly 500-750 joules with a touch of 1,000 whereas previously it showed 2,000 joules.
      Consequently the super cell composite and the Significant tornado parameters
      were lowered as well.

      Now I don’t know which version of the HRRR we are getting?
      the accurate one? OR the one that is full of shit.

      18Z 4KM NAM maintained its robustness from 12z.

      So, I guess we now cast and see.

    2. I know that’s probably the cold frontal passage time and there may be a storm with it.

      After seeing all the weathercasts and all the simulated radars they were showing, I’d throw out there that the time for the majority of the activity might be from 8 to 11 pm and that the storms that would come through at that time haven’t necessarily developed yet.

      I wonder if storms develop somewhere in eastern CT or RI around 8pm and then travel northeastward and get us.

  89. Again, I would like to thank SAK for turning us onto the College of Dupage
    weather site. AWESOME!!!! Thanks

  90. I think many will be disapointed,
    been cloudy around this neck of the woods for some time and was at about 86 and has dropped to about 75 looking at my thermometer with a south to southeast wind
    Humidity at 51 percent and been dropping since about 3pm.
    The wind actually feels very nice and refreshing

    This leads me to believe that its not very conductive for severe weather

    1. Matt, the SE surface wind where you are only adds to the already in place
      helicity. See my post below.

      it’s 78.4 here and sticky as hell. It feels like a sauna.

      1. Here is different. Was 66 DP but is now 56 with 77.9 temp. Gusty wind and very overcast but it has been overcast all day with a couple of short intermissions

  91. Hmmm, interesting from the SPC concerning the tornado watch.

    CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 313…

    VALID 012121Z – 012245Z

    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 313 CONTINUES.

    SUMMARY…IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 313…BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1106.html

  92. No warnings as of now for SNE.
    I would not be surprised that tornado watch is taken down way before 10pm.

      1. But aren’t the strong storms where they usually are; at least 60 miles from the coast? I just don’t see much in terms of storms closer to the coast. I’m probably wrong, but it sure doesn’t feel like T-storms outside. Lots of wind, but humidity is less and the sky looks far from threatening.

  93. In agreement with Matt. The air is now fairly refreshing, almost as if a front has moved through with wind and no rain. Strange. I’m skeptical about rain or storms at the coast. We shall see.

  94. Hmmm. Thought storms seemed to be weakening a bit.

    I’ll go with Matt and Ace and Joshua. And I never mind being wrong 🙂

  96. A little rain, a little light show, a little noise, a dab of wind, but nothing more is my guess. Not a big deal for most.

  97. Vicki I missed that cell. That cell got the most attention today since it was tornado warned just over the CT boarder. It came into CT moved northwest of me as a severe thunderstorm then weakened over the central part of Litchfield County.

  98. Don’t be fooled. Strong storm will still fire behind this initial batch that will engulf most of eastern sections by 9 pm…although, many towns may not see one.

  100. No lightning thunder with this. Just a heavy downpour.
    One of our meteorologist here in CT was saying had the sun stayed out to about 3 4 pm this could have been a worse situation. I have had a few rumbles of thunder flashes of lightning but for the most part getting some much needed rain.

    1. Hey it worked. I can’t usually fool Mother Nature. We have some anyway. Absolutely brilliant call for northbridge to cancel fireworks. Well done!!

  105. I see yours Tom. Looks to hit you unless it falls apart. Unless ours falls apart could train by us for a bit

  106. Ok I am like a chicken with its head cut off. I run from front of house to back trying to get best view while best view is SW which is side of house with no windows. Who the heck doesn’t out windows on the side of a house where storms come from. Seriously….I think I can hear mac laughing at me

              1. My first comment said can I post the link and I meant you. And thank you. I just shared with kids

  109. just some light rain around here, what I expected would happen. This area of showers and weak storms will drain any energy, at least for those in Northeast Mass

  110. I think that is it for here.

    We got 0.96 rain. Has to be accurate as two closest Wunder stations are on either side of that number by just a few hundredths. Nice.

  111. Having that line go right over me now in Wrentham. Heavy rain with fairly frequent thunder/lightning, but it’s not overly prolific. Just glad for the rain.

    After today, zero rainfall likely for the region until at least next Friday.

    1. Pretty much what we had here but was still fun. Am up to 1.08 inch rain which is like gold

        2. Can’t imagine how you only ended up with that much. There looked to be a very small gap in the line on radar that went over your town, but it was pretty tiny, and even then that number seems low. Guess it’s possible though.

      1. Happy to hear. I was about to head that way 🙂

        In all seriousness I am glad it was not worse there or here!!

  115. I’m whispering so I don’t wake anyone……my part of the world is sunny and green and wet this morning. I hope yours is beautiful also

    Happy Birthday, Matt!!

  116. There were actually couple storm reports in MA last night. In Lynn a tree came down on a house Rockingham Street, in Salem two trees down on wires, and in Bourne wires down on Canal Road. I found these with all the other storm reports from across the country yesterday on the storm prediction center website.

  118. 6z GFS giving us plenty of instability for thunderstorms beginning 7/8 into the next weekend. I doubt every day there will be thunderstorms and some of the days there may be a cap in the atmosphere preventing thunderstorms from forming. If there could be trigger on anyone of those days things COULD get interesting.
    Boring weather till then.

    1. Sure does, with the 8th perhaps the most robust, however, the Euro says NOT
      so fast. We shall see.

  119. Yawn….Good morning. Was out last night. A bit of T&L and a downpour, no big deal
    at all. All-in-All a BIG BUST in my opinion. Not that we needed severe weather, but
    more rain would have been good. Frankly, disappointed in the 4KM NAM. It BLew it.
    HRRR was slowly catching on that there was no longer a severe threat. Looks like
    it was more right than wrong.

    Nice weekend on tap.

    1. Not really a bust….

      Most severe weather was expected to west – it occurred there.

      Timing was decent. Short range models had the overall idea of cell and cluster placement down pretty well.

      Model’s nearly always over-forecast rainfall so no surprise that amounts were mostly under forecasts. Already adjusted for that.

      All in all I’d say it was very close to what was expected, and as usual, some areas saw little or nothing while others got some good rain and thunder.

      Now comes a very long break.

      1. All-in-all you did very well with it.

        However, since I expected worse conditions based on the 4KM NAM, it was a disappointment to me. And where we were, Canton, there was virtually Nothing. 2 flashes of lightning and a couple rumbles of thunder that I could hear sitting in the dining room playing cards. I honestly expected the house to be rocking. Simply not so. However, it sure looks like the Cape got rocked pretty good.

        Driving home we could see how the rainfall varied over short distances just by looking at puddles on the roads.

        I don’t know how much I got at my house. I saw a report from Cambridge of .41 inches. Using my puddle estimates, I’d say we
        received something on the order of .2 to .4 inches. Again, a disappointment.

        And in case you haven’t realized, I get disappointed rather easily. 😀

        I am sure next week will disappoint as well. There will be much hype, impressive severe parameters, overcooked qpf from models and then a POOFORAMA.

  123. New post!

    Not a lot of excitement there for storm lovers but if you love summer, your time has arrived!

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