Sunday Forecast

68 Comments

8:07AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)…
If there is one change to the forecast it will be to bring a low pressure area that was expected to stay further south a bit further north and introduce the chance of a period of wet weather (rain and embedded thunderstorms) for at least southern portions of the region (CT, RI, and parts of MA) sometime on Tuesday. Forecast will be adjusted to reflect this since it is a big vacation week for many, even beyond the July 4 holiday. Great weather will still take place today and for the holiday itself! Beyond this, the heat of summer will be felt by the middle of next week but the guard for thunderstorms should be up by the end of the period as the jet stream will be nearby and that’s an avenue for disturbances, which are not often well-forecast in advance and are difficult to time.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts.
MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 60s. Wind light W shifting to S.
TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy through midday with a risk of rain and possible thunderstorms, especially southern MA, CT, and RI. Partly cloudy mid to late afternoon with isolated late-day showers or thunderstorms possible. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late-day showers or thunderstorms. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)…
Shower/thunderstorm risk especially later July 8 to early July 9 depending on the timing of a disturbance and frontal system. Fair weather returns later on July 9. Next disturbance may arrive sometime July 10 into July 11 with another shower/thunderstorm risk. Overall temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)…
Similar pattern carries into mid July with a couple hard-to-time disturbances bringing passing shower/thunderstorm threats, otherwise mainly dry weather with temperatures near to above normal.

68 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK. I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday weekend so far.
    Quick peak at 6z GFS instability is in place for thunderstorm development 7/7 to 7/9. On 7/9 some big time instability just our west. If we could get a trigger those days and there is no cap certainly enough juice there for thunderstorms.

  6. Good morning and thank you.

    ONLY the Euro keeps the low South of the Boston area on Tuesday. ALL others
    give us a good deal of rain. Ranging from just under to just over an inch with more
    to the South with the 12K Nam wanting to give us 3 1/2 inches. That would be nice, but
    I fear that is pure fantasy. We’ll take an inch and be very happy.

    I leave you with some Nature, The Charles River yesterday where the Mrs. and I were fishing. Yes, Mrs. JPD fishes with me on occasion and she is quite adept at it.

    http://imgur.com/oaU82fm

    This was on the Dedham/Needham line near rt. 128. We didn’t have the time to travel too far and this spot has always been good to us. 😀

  7. I knew the Sox lost last night, but give me a break!!!!

    Clay Buchholz and the Boston Red Sox were roughed up by the Los Angeles Angels Saturday night, losing 21-2 at Fenway Park.

    1. And THIS is their answer for today??????????????????

      Sunday, the Red Sox will turn to Sean O’Sullivan, a righty who has a career ERA of 6.03 in 69 career appearances.

      LOSERVILLE!!!!

    1. Hope that is fantasy! We have a flight Tuesday at 9am. My wife hates flying and and she will be very nervous if raining/thundering.

  9. If one has any faith in the GFS, Thursday could get dicey.
    SB CAPE of 3,500 joules with lifted index of -8 or lower.

    Euro has instability but the timing is slower, so we shall see with the 12Z runs
    and when we get closer with the higher resolution models.

  10. At least the Sox scored a safety. Too bad they gave up three touchdowns. Yes, the problems with this team run very deep. They were extremely fortunate to win on Friday. Kimbrel blew the save in effect, but was somehow let off the hook by an inexplicable umpire’s decision. The prior two victories were heroic comebacks, showing the Sox’ grit and offensive prowess. But, this will all count for naught with a dearth of pitching.

    On our July 4th weekend it may seem in appropriate to post a link to the most British of Newspapers – the Daily Telegraph. But, because of this article’s weather content, and in particular its clarion call to the “weather-obsessed” public to help out the British Meteorological Office, I figured I’d send it.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/met-office-seeks-weather-obsessed-british-public-to-help-make-mo/

    1. Fascinating. Thank you.

      Do you think they are most obsessed than we are?
      Certainly not more than those of us on the blog. But what about
      the rest of US citizenry?

    2. For starters, the MANAGER MUST GO!

      Next, they need to figure out WHY The minor league staff cannot
      for the life of them develop pitchers or REHAB pitchers. They can’t do it
      for whatever reason. Therefore, next on the agenda is to get someone
      in Pawtucket and the lower minors who knows what the bleep they are doing!!

      And management thinks they can win today with the likes of:
      Sean O’Sullivan

      PLAEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE!!
      Give me break!

  14. 1. Earth’s closest approach to the sun this year occurs on …

    A. January 4th
    B. March 20th
    C. June 2oth
    July 4th

    2. Boston’s highest temperature ever recorded was on …

    A. June 6, 1925
    B. July 4, 1911
    C. August 2, 1975
    D. September 7, 1881

    Answers later today.

    2. I know I know! Not gonna give them away. 😀 These are must-knows for a meteorologist. 😛

      1. Well, I don’t think I thought this one through enough. I was
        probably 1/2 asleep.

        😀 😀 😀

      1. Close call and sharp cut-off. I had to adjust for the possibility of getting some rain but I’m not thinking the entire area gets soaked on this one.

  17. re: Instability next week.

    Looking at the 12Z GFS, most instability gets cut off at the pass and never makes it
    into Eastern Sections. There PLENTY to the West of NE and on Saturday, some in
    Western NE. Looks potent IF it got in here. He he he Fat chance of that. 😀

  19. A friend of mine informs me that only 90 tornadoes (preliminary count, not final count) reported in the USA in June, FAR below the average of 243.

  21. 12Z Euro keeps ALL precipitation for Tuesday’s low South of the MA/RI and MA/CT border.

  22. 12Z Euro shows the threat of SEVERE weather, including possible tornadoes
    on Next Saturday, 7/9. It shows abundant shear with much turning of winds with height. Shows threat in Western NE at 12Z and off sh0re at 0Z.
    So I suspect it crosses SNE during the day on Saturday. Just something to monitor
    is all at this point. We shall see. I wouldn’t count on it at this point, but something
    to watch for sure.

  23. I must admit, I am in shock. This guy, O’sullivan is actually pitching a good game.
    No runs to the top of the 4th inning.

  25. Dew point at Logan 5:00 pm obs. = 46F

    If we get a similar dp temp for tomorrow it would be amazing for a July 4th! 😀

    Any chance on that TK? 🙂

  26. Heading to Gloucester for dinner and fireworks. Fabulous evening. Just about packed and ready for Boston tomorrow. Leaving at 7AM. We usually get home after midnight. Long day, but oh so incredible. 🙂

    1. TK, Have an wonderful time tomorrow celebrating the Fourth on the Esplanade!
      My best to you and yours for a safe and Happy 4th of July!!!

  27. Sold overcast but not seeing anything on radar. Enjoy Gloucester TK. I hope everyone enjoyed his and her celebrations.

  28. Answer to quizzes.

    1. Earth’s closest approach to the sun this year occurs on …

    A. January 4th
    B. March 20th
    C. June 2oth
    D. July 4th

    The correct answer is A.

    2. Boston’s highest temperature ever recorded was on …

    A. June 6, 1925
    B. July 4, 1911
    C. August 2, 1975
    D. September 7, 1881

    The correct answer is B.

    2. Thank you. I knew First one and guessed at second. I have Dave to thank. I said B cause he said C so I thought is be different. Although I remember a horribly hot July 4 in maybe 2000. Daughter was doing horse show in Fairfield CT. She finally pulled her horse over her trainers objection. One pony died mid course from heat and another collapsed. It was 102.

      1. I believe that July 4, 1911 temp was 104F…probably no A/C back then. Electric fans if that.

        1. My guess is July 4 I remember was not 102 in Boston. Someone might know. Will have to check with daughter to find out year.

          Your comment about AC and fans made me think. Even when I was young there was rarely AC and you are right about not a lot of fans. The big thing in houses was cross ventilation but now limiting Windows is green….as is the case with my new house. Lots of mindset changes.

    1. Friends are at their place in kennebunkport and have said the same. So glad you are enjoying

  31. The 1st 2 weeks of July 1911 in Lowell:

    7/1 – 90/59
    7/2 – 97/69
    7/3 – 100/74
    7/4 – 102/77
    7/5 – 103/77
    7/6 – 101/78
    7/7 – 98/71
    7/8 – 89/59
    7/9 – 95/64
    7/10 – 100/75
    7/11 – 98/77
    7/12 – 98/74
    7/13 – 91/68
    7/14 – 89/63

    That is downright ugly.

    1. Nice blog post by him. He nailed it. Hope Durant comes here. We at least have a chance. One that I didn’t think we had. 😀

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