Saturday Forecast

90 Comments

9:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)…
Classic mid summer pattern underway with bouts of heat that ease at times. An old washed out frontal boundary and a disturbance or 2 may bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm to a few locations today and again Sunday, and a stronger cold front approaching will increase the risk of storms later Monday into Tuesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon but most areas will see nothing. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod / Islands, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 63-72, warmest in urban areas. Wind light SW.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms through late afternoon. Highs 77-82 South Coast, 83-89 elsewhere. Wind light SW but some coastal sea breezes.
MONDAY: Hazy sun. Humid. Chance of late-day thunderstorms. Lows 63-71. Highs 80-88 South Coast, 88-96 elsewhere.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows 65-73. Highs 80-85 South Coast, 85-90 elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 62-69. Highs 80-88.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)…
Warm/dry July 21. Hot/humid July 22-24 with isolated showers/thunderstorms late July 23 and scattered showers/storms July 24. Dry/warm July 25.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)…
Similar to the previous 5-days, warm to hot, humid at times, a few episodes of showers/thunderstorms but overall a below normal rainfall pattern.

90 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you for the update TK.

    Looks like temperature rise has slowed up a bit.

    82.4 here now. 83 at the airport with west wind. DP 58 Ahhhhh…….

  6. Euro has some pretty potent severe parameters for Friday next week.
    Something to watch. Euro is usually quite conservative with those severe parameters.

  7. Before that Monday could be interesting.
    From NWS Taunton.
    Models continue to indicate
    elevated instability as showalters drop well below 0, K values above
    32 and TT above 50. In fact, models show MU CAPE values near 1000
    j/kg. Still to far out to determine if storms could be strong or
    severe, but something to keep an eye on in the coming days.

    1. I don’t know where that is coming from.
      Euro shows low values for total totals for Monday night.

  8. Assuming the wind stays offshore and the dp remains in the upper 50s to near 60F, then yes, I’d say Logan, Beverly, Lawrence all overachieve a bit. Perhaps a 93F or 94F ?

  9. A little concerned with late Monday and Tuesday.

    Way way too soon to come up with any confident deterministic solution for next Friday.

  10. It’s interesting …..

    On the great link SAK posted to get obs every 10 minutes from stations, it twice had Logan at 97F yesterday. And yet on the daily climate report, it has a high of 96F. Also 96F showing on the monthly report.

  13. Not for nothing, but 12Z 4KM NAM shows convection for later today as well as
    tomorrow. Looks a tad more than isolated, but it’s only a model. 😀

    2. SPC has us in a general thunderstorm risk today and tomorrow as well
      as Monday. Slight and marginal remain to our West for Monday. Updated
      around 1PM.

    3. Taking into account that the 4km NAM always shows too much green (in other words, precip where there would be mid and/or high level cloud coverage) you eliminate that to find that it is actually forecasting isolated convection (focus on the coverage of the cellular blobs).

      Tomorrow, similar, but a different trigger and focus area.

    2. Sidewalk Brunch! Fry your eggs right there!

      As one of our colleagues says: “NEVER use 2m air temps!”
      I recall a run or 2 several days ago having highs around 107 for Boston for yesterday I believe it was.

        1. My fried eggs are cooked over easy, please, with a side order of toast and some hash browns.

    5. COWABUNGA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      incredible!

      And TK, I do remember seeing 107 from the GFS. 😀

  18. Logan up to 91 with DP 57. Comfortably hot.
    We are supposed to go out for dinner tonight. We never would have made it IF
    the dp did not drop. yeah!

  22. Fitchburg MA on their 4th day of 90+ … There were strong signs that some areas would see this all the way back last weekend and it has indeed come to be.

    1. Applied meteorology will lead to one knowing the HRRR has been forecasting it too early, but otherwise doing OK with cell placement once activity has fired up.

      Modifications need to be made when analyzing the data here.

        1. There are a couple of axes of instability and one of them will be right through metro Boston so it’s possible.

  24. Man, the 12z Euro is HOT from Friday onward. Shows upper 90s to near 100 Friday through next Monday.

    1. Just keep making the same adjustment. Delay the firing of the cells, but then it’s not too bad.

  26. First showers/storms should fire in the northern half of RI or adjacent MA areas, and also possibly in east central CT, sometime during the next hour.

  27. For those of you who like numbers and/or heat, I was asked to guest write a post about heat waves for the blog hosted by the students in the UMass-Lowell Weather Center (TK – request came directly from Dr. Colby). I had created the climate database up there and still maintain it to this day, which is why I was asked to write it. If you’re interested in reading it, you can go to the UML Weather Center home page at http://storm.uml.edu/ , where you will also find observations taken every 5 minutes.

    I also published it on my own blog with one minor addition at the top: https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2016/07/16/the-heat-is-on-but-is-it-a-heat-wave/

    1. Awesome! I’m glad you still have a hand in what goes on there, at least in terms of DATA! Looking forward to seeing Dr. C at the conference!

    1. 19Z HRRR still insists on convection. Says convection starting at 20Z.
      Really. Oh that’s the GHOST Convection. 😀 😀 😀

  35. Earlier I had posted that ridiculous GFS map for next Saturday. While it’s still way too early for any details, the GFS has for several days now, insisted on some extreme heat centered on next weekend. It seems as though the ECMWF also does as well, with several days of upper 90s to lower 100s, centered on next weekend. Even the Canadian GEM model has the signal, to a lesser extent. The GFS and ECMWF Ensembles are also on board.

    Even though it’s still a week away, all signs point to a significant heat wave across Central and Southern New England towards the end of next week and into next weekend.

    Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to go make plans to head to the Arctic Circle next weekend.

      2. Maybe we can all visit our friends in Kimmirut.

        I noticed in that GFS forecast temperature map for next Saturday that it will be a state record-tying 107 at my house in Taunton. A comforting sea breeze will lower the high to a soothing 104 at Brant Rock, Tom.

  36. If it’s gonna be that hot, I’ll hang around here. 😀

    I’m going to be at Revere Beach next Saturday. 😀

  37. I have a budding weather woman. My seven year old granddaughter has been watching tornado chasers and would like to be one

  40. As of today, we have now lost 15 mins off the earliest sunrise (5:22 am) but only 7 mins off the latest sunset (8:18 pm). I find it interesting that the sunrises and sunsets don’t match. The earth’s rotation I assume?

    Earliest sunrise 5:07 am
    Latest sunset 8:25 pm

  42. Have a narrow, but continuous line of cumulus clouds on the northern horizon. A few of the tops of the towers are being illuminated by the setting sun.

  43. Wouldn’t have known if I hadn’t been tipped off elsewhere. However, I made a rare trip to the TWC website for a look at the home page headline “Giant African Dust Plume Hovering Over U.S.” What a sad outfit that is.

  44. To those who can read long range model forecast maps better than I (which is most of you), what say the maps concerning tropical cyclones in the short and long term in Atlantic Basin? Are things going to start to get active soon?

  45. Well, like Sak has pointed out, extremely hot weather could happen. This up coming weekend. I am heading to Nantucket Saturday A day before I am suppose to but they are willing to let us come earlier, Teacher asked why I want to come, I said I looked at the possible heat coming and seeing Nantucket is out a bit over the ocean, it be cooler. So I am making a less expensive trip than Sak’s 😛

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