Thursday Forecast

447 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)
The colder trend is underway and today will be a windy and chilly day behind the second of 3 cold fronts in this process. There is the potential for additional wind damage and power outages as many trees that were not damaged or downed from last week’s strong winds are in a weakened state and are vulnerable. Next up is a wave of low pressure passing south of the region on Friday morning. Model forecast for snow continue quite variable even fairly close to the event, but for the moment I’ll be staying in the lower side for snow amounts, with the most significant snow occurring near the South Coast and possibly parts of interior southern MA/RI/CT. By later in the day Friday or early Friday night, a batch of snow showers/squalls appears likely from southern NH into eastern MA as an inverted trough swings south to southeast through the region. This will open the door for Arctic air which will invade the region from later Friday night through the coming weekend. Some record cold is possible, including the second Saturday in a row of potential record low maximum temperatures. Though it moderates slightly Sunday-Monday it will remain colder than normal with dry weather.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 43-49. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow develops CT, RI, and southern MA overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty evening, diminishing to under 10 MPH overnight.
FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow in CT, RI, and much of MA, with only brief snow possible northeastern MA and southern NH – accumulations of 2-4 inches near the South Coast with a few 4+ inch amounts possible, coating to 2 inches elsewhere with the 2 inches favoring areas south of the Mass Pike. Partly cloudy afternoon with isolated snow showers north central MA and southern NH late in the day. Highs 30-37. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially late.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Snow showers/squalls are most likely in southern NH and eastern MA with some minor additional accumulation. Lows 11-18. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-13. Highs 20-27.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 3-10. Highs 23-30.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-14. Highs 34-43.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)
Storm potential for March 14-15 and the leaning is toward a system that is strung out with an initial storm staying somewhat offshore and giving more of a side-swipe than a direct hit, and an upper level system coming across the region behind this with some additional precipitation. Should be cold enough for snow for much of the event but it remains far too early to speculate details and amounts. Look for drier weather to follow but that may be shortened by another potential bout of unsettled weather March 17-18. Confidence very low on this. Temperatures near to below normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)
The next potential stormy period begins about March 20 and the temperature trend should continue near to below normal.

447 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    The meteorologist down here, Rob Gilman, on WATD Marshfield was on air with his forecast …..

    “A winter storm watch has been issued for the south shore. Snow developing tonight and continuing into the morning …. 1-2 inches before ending as a few sprinkles, more towards the Cape.”

    I chuckled. Guess he’s thinking lower too.

    2. Tom I wonder how old he is as he was on WATD as a kid growing up in Marshfield. I always liked him .

  3. Thanks TK! Agree on pretty much all aspects of the forecast. I still like 2-4″ for most south of the Pike tomorrow, possibly a 4-6″ band near the South Coast/Cape, and the cutoff may be such that 2″ doesn’t even get to the Pike. Bitter cold weekend, and just a cold pattern in general.

    For next week’s storm, it’s one of those that catches everyone’s attention because it’s got that “potential”. But I don’t really have a preference on an outcome at this point. Maybe by tomorrow 🙂

  5. So you guys think we should prepare the equipment here for tomorrow????? I heard 6:00 start today by a co-worker last night heard overnight .

  8. Good morning again and Thank You TK.

    Also, I was so happy to see you inserted inverted trough into your forecast for tomorrow evening. At the very least, I am not seeing things and what I thought I saw, I saw. 😀

    For amusement, punctuate the following:

    That that is is that that is not is not is that it it is

    Nam is cranking. Less than 24 hours from event. Let’ see want it spits out. 😀

  9. John, to answer your question: I would say that the snow starts somewhere in
    the neighborhood of 1AM to 4AM. 😀

    1. That is for the area for which you would have concern. Starts earlier more West and Southwest. 😀

      1. I would say get the chemicals ready at the very least. I doubt Boston totally escapes the snow.

  10. Tim Kelley tweeted Swiss model and saying he believe best snow are further north because this time of year it’s hard to get snows further south.

    I like a general 2-4 from Boston south and some higher amounts from interior areas. A wwa should be issued for all areas south of pike imo. That should happen this afternoon.

    2. Tim Kelley? I wouldn’t trust anything he says. What Swiss Model?
      the Hot chocolate model?

      I’m concerned about what the 4KM NAM was showing. Will it repeat
      with the 12Z run. IF so, I’d consider expanding the advisories as well.
      But I’m not ready to do so just yet. Give me another hour or 2. 😀

  11. Bernie’s tweet from an hour ago:

    24 hours from now it is going to be thumping from phl to NYC to a new eng. Trof goes neg with 80kts of wind at 500 mb

    1. Neg?????????????????????????????

      I don’t see any trough going negative. What is he talking about.
      I need to SEE it.

        1. Bernie’s on the snow train? he he he
          Last stop on the snow train is well south of Boston. 😀

  12. TK, wind blowing hard. My son is a fireman in the Mansfield area.
    Red flag day in your mind? Thanks

  13. The new 12Z Regular NAM says SNOW starts in Boston around 8AM. Now that
    is a huge change from the 6Z run.

  16. Just saying what Tom Kelley was posting. I actually don’t mind him at all. I think he knows his stuff. He’s been forecasting here for 25 years.

    1. Hey, that’s fine. I am pretty particular and can be extremely fussy and hard
      to please. I’m never happy with anything! 😀

      But, nah, I don’t and never have cared for Tim Kelley.

      And I know you were just posting what he said. I for one think he is wrong.

  17. Take a look at this 4KM NAM for Tomorrow.
    This shows radar reflectivity, not from the storm itself but from the inverted trough
    or even a little meso low. In addition there is a surface map with the interested
    area circled in red. See the little meso low and general trough supporting the snow?

    http://imgur.com/a/O5XKE

    Not sure how much accumulation this puts down. Waiting for another panel or 2.

  18. Wow – wind seems even stronger here than last week. Just my observation with no specific numbers. We are gusting to 36.

  19. im starting to feel like next weeks possible snow event is going to be mainly over the fishes and were going to be saying wow if it was only closer or its another system that gives areas south of the pike some good snow and almost nothing up in Northern Mass. and VT/NH ski areas

    1. Not sure yet.

      0Z GFS looked like the kiss of death and then the 6Z came back to a big storm.

      Too early to tell, but what TK and JMA have been saying concerns me.

      You may be correct that Northern New England misses out on the next one just like they are missing tomorrow’s.

    1. That 3KM NAM has 13 inches for Martha’s Vinyard and 7-8 inches up the coast
      to about Hingham. Is this what Bernie and Tim are talking about???????

      Let’s see IF the GFS joins in. I DOUBT it.

  22. Thanks, TK.

    Starting tomorrow, the 7 day forecast looks more like a January 10-17 forecast than March 10-17, except this year January 10-17 featured temperatures mostly in the 40s and even a few 50s.

    1. Pretty crazy. I don’t like these back end Winters.
      Give us Winter’s best Shot up front and the middle and then
      give us nice SPRING weather. I hate the fact that we were in the 70s in
      February and then go into the brutal cold.

      But that is New England and not a whole lot we can do about it. 😀

      If it’s going to be cold, then let’s get Boston OVER the season average for
      snow.

  25. in the sports world, Butler could be traded to the saints. The patriots are apparently signing Stephen Gillmore from the Bills. I would hope that butler stays and Gillmore is on the other side, what a tandem that would be. I guess the patriots really want cooks from the saints (their #1 receiver) I do not know why as we have so many weapons on offense but in Bill we trust. Hopefully the patriots get hightower back.

  26. Maybe we can get out of this cold stretch with no snow at all. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    The Friday event trending southward again and maybe the Tuesday/Wednesday event can trend towards hitting Bermuda.

    2. its spring break I want snow a few days in June won’t kill ya… Its not like students do anything those last few days anyway 😉

  27. JP, Jim Cantore mentioned this morning that both the GFS and Euro ensembles are more in line with the GFS for next Tues and not the operational Euro. Is that what you are seeing.

    1. Yes, I saw that. Today’s 12Z GFS blows the roof off the place!!

      System stalls in the Gulf of Maine and pummels Eastern Sections!!!!

  28. Must be windy out again, I can hear it against the windows.

    Seeing those deadly accidents the last 2 windy days with trees randomly landing on cars is really awful.

    1. So agree, Tom. I was out and about last Thursday and didn’t give it much thought. One of the roads daughter and I were on was the one in Oxford where the tree killed the man from Sutton. Several of the streets that the school buses take were blocked when they tried to get kids home.

      Today, as TK wisely pointed out, seems more worrisome to me. I would assume many trees were sort of blown loose last week and today’s wind could bring them down.

    1. Even if the snow maps are way off, cut it in half and it’s still a foot snow storm.
      Again, Assuming it verifies. 😀

    2. Perhaps the meeting will have a 2:00 pm break 🙂 🙂

      Some consistency, either within the same model or with multiple models would be nice.

      1. I doubt it. This is one of those UGH! type meetings. I DREAD it
        like you wouldn’t believe! I am going out to lunch soon to be back in time. !@*&*(#!&*(@^#*!@*(#&!*(@&#*(!&@#

    3. I’ll post a zoomed in Pivotal Weather snow map shortly. It’s not out quite as far as the Instant Weather Maps. So far, it is up to 22-23 inches for Boston.

  31. Just when I thought I wouldn’t start to get excited about snow again until next November the GFS brings me right back in. The adult in me is ready for Spring, but the little kid in me wouldn’t mind one last storm to cap off the Winter.

    2. I just hope it is not a big tease. We’re getting closer, so I am hopeful
      that the final solution is within the ball park of this one.

    3. I love your comment…..how simply true it is that it is the little kid in us that anticipates the snow…..or perhaps any storm.

    1. Unlike instant Weather maps, the Pivotal only allows 6,12,24 and total accumulation. Since this event goes over 24 hours, I chose the total.
      Therefore, some of the snow in these is from tomorrow’s event.

      The instant weather Maps one farther up, was 72 hours, so included wed,tues and Monday and did NOT include tomorrow’s event.

      So with the Kuchera, it looks like about 22 inches for Boston.

  33. Looking at the CMC coming out. trying to figure out of what is presented so far
    will lead to a simliar solution for Tues/Wed. We shall see. So far it looks interesting.

    Would be nice to have it join forces.

  35. looking at the 500vt canadian is more on board but not as robust as the gfs. I would say it has about half of what the gfs is saying

    1. Disagree. It has about 80-90 % of what the GFS has. Check the snow map.
      It may even be very close to the GFS.

      Now we wait for the Euro and see just how much the Euro is on board.

      We’ve had much run-to-run consistency and now among models.

      Looking better, but not a lock by any means.

    3. I believe you said earlier in the winter that you predicted there would be one storm that we could see coming far in advance…

    4. thats a trick question, there are two pieces of energy??? Both pieces over the northern central pacific.

    5. So does that mean we can’t get a early accurate picture of the medium range? Its not like it’s 7-10 days out.

      1. Until that energy is over land and thus into the upper-air network to be sample accurately, then ALL model solutions are suspect and should be treated with extreme skepticism.

        1. Understood. With that said, I find it frustrating that we don’t have a better way of improving the data stream before energy is over land. With all the money, time, and resources spent on medium range guidance and forecasting, to say that ALL model solutions are suspect and should be treated with extreme skepticism seems like an enormous waste of those resources.

          1. I find it frustrating that we are on top of a storm before there is a clear handle on it. Here it is all right but if you are a met responsible for letting the public know, it has to be very frustrating.

    1. Sak : I enjoy reading your forecast page as you tell it like it is with no BS in between a straight shooter . Last paragraph I love . Hype with snow has just gone to another level lately , not here of course .

      1. Thank you.

        I always try to explain what’s going on, as best I can. Unlike other pages that put up an icon a temp and a map and call that “forecasting”, I try to explain exactly what’s happening. I figure, if people understand why things are happening, and where the uncertainty lies, then maybe they’ll have a better understanding of the forecast.

        TK’s forecasts and mine are often very similar for many reasons. We’re both from the same generation and lived around here our whole lives. We both went to Lowell. We both worked together and learned from some of the most talented meteorologists I’ve ever know. I probably learned more about forecasting in my first couple of years on the job by listening to and observing those guys than I ever did in school. We learned from the best and we try to be as good as they were/still are.

        1. Yes you and Tk are both excellent. I also must tell you I am a huge Harvey guy as I like his style .

  41. That 12z GFS run is an entire east coast special storm. Make me leery of it but excited at the same time.

  44. Bunch of people at my school are already talking as if Tuesday’s storm is set in stone and 8-12″ is guaranteed. This cycle happens with every single storm threat we get – and I’m thinking the problem may be TV meteorologists. They may be conveying the info correctly too, but the public does tend to focus on the worst case scenario if they’re told about it.

    1. Well, if you take the models verbatim, 8-12″ is way too low, 18-24″ is more like it 🙂

  45. So all of those models that were trending north yesterday at 48 hours and trended south today at 24 hours are somehow zeroed in on a solution for 120-192 hours? These were the same models that had significant snow for both Friday daytime, Saturday night and Sunday, as recently as this past Sunday right?

    Still believe weaker precip fields, longer duration is a very possible scenario.

    I don’t know how Tuesday ends up (thinking more Wednesday now anyway) I know none of the models have it right at the moment. Except maybe the Swiss model (insert hysterical laughter)

      1. Oh I know. It wasn’t a shot at you, just the laugh that someone would actually put that out as justification for a forecast.

  46. I enjoy finding things …..

    If you start at 500mb around hr 120 and work backwards, the 500 mb feature comes not out of the Pacific, but out of the arctic, rounding a northwest territories 500 mb high.

    So, if I have to guess, the energy is somewhere over the arctic ocean, to the north of the Siberian northern coastline. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  47. 12z Euro bombs out but track is SE of the benchmark for Tues/Wed. Still drops a widespread 12-18″.

  49. I guess the only solution off the table for Tuesday-Wednesday is…RAIN?

    A hit, graze or total miss.

  50. Good afternoon,

    My meeting actually only lasted 1 1/2 hours. I am so relieved and it went much better than I thought.

    I just looked at the Euro. A bit more off shore than the CMC and the GFS, but as Mark indicated, still gives a decent dumping.

    Many caveats being thrown about and I fully understand why.

    Even with that being said, we are getting some run-t0-run model consistency and
    some decent model-to-model consistency. Does that mean it is a LOCK and a certainty 5 days out? NO WAY! I understand that completely. However, for snow enthusiasts it certainly is something to get excited about. To be sure, a bust/miss is in the back of mind, but at the same time the mere “possibility” of a snow bomb has me going.

    I will continue to monitor for changes. We shall see what shakes out.

    Now for my assignment. Be back soon. 😀

  51. I love this part of weather, the build up is what always gets me so excited. I have learned over the last 2 years that it’s ok to be excited for things that you can’t control. My excitement will never disappear no matter what I know or don’t know.

    Euro Eps also in board 🙂 with that said.

  52. re: assignment
    As Tom alluded to, this energy for Tuesday/Wednesday is nearly impossible to locate
    right now. I ran the 500mb charts backwards and forwards about 25 times.

    The best I can do is locate a general vicinity of it. Pretty much in an area described
    by Tom or close anyway.

    Here is the GFS 500mb chart for 18Z today. The suspicious area is circled in red. If it is not within the circle, it “should” be very close to that. As Tom said it seems to eminate from the top of a 500 MB HIGH located across parts of Siberia and Western Alaska.

    http://imgur.com/a/mqF9f

    1. It seems to slowly drop Southward and then exerts itself as it approaches
      ND and Montana. Eventually carves out a beautiful trough near the
      East coast.

      I suppose much could go wrong during that journey. We shall see.

        1. Well, I took a chance posting that. Hey, being wrong is always a learning experience. I looked and looked and looked and I didn’t see it that way. Now that you have pointed it out, I will look again and see if I can follow that.

          Many thanks

          1. Well I would not have seen that in a million years.
            Usually I can follow the energy back very easily.

            There appears to be a very subtle split somewhere
            over British Columbia where it kind of jumps the
            rockies. Very subtle.

            Is that it? thanks

              1. Thanks SAK. I enjoy learning moments and there are many being part of this blog.

                Given that, it should start to get sampled soon, hopefully fine tuning the model output.

  55. I’m fairly certainly my house just moved a fraction of an inch to the east.

    This wind is crazy.

  56. Interesting afternoon at Middleborough High…

    Teaching my last period class when I noticed smoke blowing across the sports fields in the backyard. There is a stubborn brush fire adjacent to the high school off Route 28 just off Route 495, Exit 4.

    We got out at regular time, but we were all told to evacuate the campus immediately.
    It is a mutual aid fire with at least six towns fighting it with airwing.

    There are using the high school as fire staging.

    I have the scanner on and it’s still burning!

    Never a dull moment…

    1. Oh boy. I was just wondering what would happen with this wind fanning a fire. Someone asked earlier if TK considered it a red flag day. Hope they are safe and can get it under control.

    2. This kind of wind, this time of year with NO snow on the ground is a recipe
      for trouble. Hope no one gets hurt and there is no damage to buildings.

        1. Update:

          There are 12 acres involved in this behind a Hannaford’s shopping plaza and Route 495 to the southwest of the high school. No buildings are involved.
          Fire seems to be under control.

  58. Ed Vallee tweet

    60-70% of 6″+ snow on day 5 from an ensemble is mind boggling. Incredible signal.

  59. Nearly every computer model has the storm and a pretty powerful one. Can they all be wrong? Maybe but doubtful

    1. See below. The UKMET certainly has the storm, but has the tightest to the coast track of all.

  61. Saw on twitter some talk about it moving west and that would be concern. A lot to watch for sure.

    1. Well that would do it for sure. We finally get one and it hugs the coast or worse, goes inland. That would figure.

      It’s 5 days out and much can still go wrong.

      That being said, we have 6 models and the score is 5-1

      Near benchmark

      Euro|
      GFS
      CMC
      FIM
      JMA

      Hugs coast/Inland

      UKMET

      We can’t totally rule out the hugger/inland, however, I would venture to say
      that the odds right now would favor either a near the benchmark or even more east over the hugger.

    2. This?

      Ryan Hanrahan‏Verified account @ryanhanrahan 2h2 hours ago

      Euro Ensembles with a beast of a storm Tuesday. Still a warm risk if this tucks in too close to the coast. #nbcct

    1. Anyone up for waiting until we know more before we start using the term “Nor’easter”? 😉

      I know I am…

      1. HE HE HE

        TK, do you still think this thing stretches out?
        It seemed that way for sure last night. Not so much now.

        Just curious as to your thinking.

        Also, what weight would you give to it resolving into a coastal hugger/inland runner?

        Thanks

  64. I think the last time we had this much agreement this far in advance of a potential storm was the blizzard of 2013. I was skeptical that was going to hit and it did. I still feel the same way with those until we get a little closer.
    Upton, NY issuing winter storm warning for New London County in CT. You got to be kidding me.

    1. Ryan Hanrahan agrees with you. He says he is NOT forecasting warning criteria
      snow amounts. 😀 😀 😀

    3. We had to have had a lot of warning for the March 13, 1993, storm as well. My in-laws lived in SC at the time but were staying with friends in London. They called several days ahead to see what was going on.

      1. The 93 storm was well advertised at least 5 days in advance
        and virtually how it was modeled 5 days in advance is how it
        went down. Unreal. Don’t see that very often.

  66. Philip I was referring to Nemo in 2013.
    As a snow lover I am rooting for Tuesday and hope we end winter with a bang.

  67. From meteorologist John Homenuk. Now we see if this pans out. Here is the tweet and his perspective on EURO ensembles
    Today’s European Ensemble individual members are some of the most prolific i’ve seen for the NE region. Many with incredible snow amounts.

    1. Ahh, but a prolific ensemble run does not necessarily make a storm.
      Tis a good sign to be sure, but it ain’t over until the fat lady sings or so they
      say. 😀

      18Z GFS is cranking now, but more so ONTO the 0Z runs.

      I always digest the 0Z GFS and CMC and sometimes UKMET before I retire
      for the night. 😀

    2. The terms “Euro” (or “ECMWF”) and “snowfall amounts” are incompatible. 😛

      1. 😀 😀

        You guys always trash the snow maps.
        If so, then by definition you must also think very poorly of
        any of the QPF maps as well. Correct?

        Yet, the NWS often uses those qpf charts to help shape their
        snowfall forecasts. They mention model qpf in their forecast
        discussions whenever precipitation is involved.

        So perhaps I am confused and misguided? I dunno

        Thanks

        1. Yes, for the most part it sucks. And we have often see the NWS #’s too high for the majority of events the last couple years.

          1. 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is 8-12″ region wide. Most profilc? No idea WTF he is taking about.

  68. Totally agree with you. This is way out on the future and for all we know this could be east of 40n 70w and if that is the case will be spared the worst.

  69. Am I reading correctly that Marshfield has a winter storm warning for the upcoming event ? I wasn’t expecting that. I thought, if anything, advisories or warnings would be lessened or shifted south ????????

        1. I don’t know …. seems not in line with these projections. I’m interested to see their reasoning.

          1. Are they using the NWS model?
            or the UYA model?
            or the FIIK model?

            I dunno, something seems wacky.

            Perhaps they are using good old fashion
            analysis??

            I’d like to see their reasoning as well.

            Have they updated their discussion?

            Their maps are old from 4:30 this AM

  73. 18z GFS brings the Tuesday storm through Cape Cod Canal. Rain gets into the storm for Boston south and east RI and southeastern CT. Inland SNOWORAMA!!!

    1. The run is also overly-poisoned with what looks like convective feedback.

      It’s not even done and I’m tossing the entire run.

      1. I toss 99% of 6z and 18z runs beyond 36 hours and truthfully I don’t even look at the 6z / 18z suite 90% of the time.

        00z / 12z GFS/ECMWF/NAM with climatology, synoptic analysis, and applied meteorology is pretty much all I use. I had a winter several years ago where the CMC / GGEM and their ENS was like winning the lottery and one season not long ago the UKMET was locked in, but otherwise I don’t stray. About 3 years ago I tossed the SREF which made me sad because it was my go to snow tool, but now it is too polluted by bad input.

        Keep it simple.

        1. Same pretty much. I do look at the in-betweens for fun most of the time though. But it has no impact on my thinking. Trained myself not to let it.

          And I agree about the SREF. It is now the “So Rarely Error Free” model.

            1. I think most of the short range high res stuff is garbage more often than not.

              Anyway I am off the Virgin Islands late Saturday afternoon so I will leave my best guess for next week before I leave and then I am off the grid for the week.

            2. I remember the NGM.

              Nested Grid Model (Is that correct?)

              That was when the NAM was the ETA, correct?

  74. Just like the 6z run yesterday of the GFS was showing 30 inches for my area and I laughed. I am laughing with this run as well showing 27 inches.

  75. lol 55 inches for Mt Washington on that run of the GFS.. Thats rocky mountain kind snow. Probably happened before but not sure its happened in my life time

    1. I’ve seen it Matt. Winter of 68-69. Absolutely hammered up there!!
      Not just Mt. Washington. All of the Whites.

    1. Generally. By the time you get to the 2nd panel, #1 is the original “Sunday threat” heading far out to the south of New England and it will be #2 and #3 (assuming this is correct) whose interactions will be key.

      But it remains to be seen if it even looks this way when we get there.

  77. It’s so funny that we were discussing the warmer solution and at the time we had 5 models with no rain and one, the UKMET hugging the coast with rain along the coastal plain if not more.

    Then BANG! The 18Z GFS comes out and comes in tight along the coast, wasting a crapload of the heaviest precipitation as RAIN! I sincerely hope that the 0Z run is back to more like this morning’s 12Z run.

    We shall see, but the warmer solution would NOT surprise me one bit.

    1. i kind of like the warmer solution 😉 if it goes a tad further south but not to much Im good as it hits my area and gives the ski areas a good dose of snow during spring break 😀 Plan on going skiing a few times this week.

  79. Watching the latest HRRR runs, it “appears” that it wants to bring the snow
    a little farther NORTH tomorrow. Interesting.

  81. We should focus on one storm at a time . Getting confused reading the back and fourth between tomorrow and next week.

    1. its a weather blog tomorrow’s system is gonna be tiny and confined south of the pike mainly. With meaningful snow fall restricted southshore, cape and islands

        1. I’ve been confused too. Ok, but here’s the deal. We may need to man the hair dryers. I’m not worried about tomorrow. But next week…..I am sorry but we simply cannot have another snow day. If we have one in Milton, it takes us to June 23. And that is the day that my son graduates from UMASS Med. I cannot miss that. But how can I miss the last day of school? Two snow days are A-OK, but one is absolutely out of the question. I’m sorry. But that is that. Please inform whoever is in charge.

          1. i be blowing all my hair dryers and my shock vac so it gives us a good snow storm its spring break. Congrats to your son? Which Umass??? I think you could call out for that?? Its not like we did anything anyway that last day 🙂

          2. ok….as much as I would love the snow, I’ll man the hair dryers here. How exciting for your son and you. In the event we cannot get this done, they’d give you the day off….I would hope??

          3. You’ll just need to call in sick Deb , lol. I hope it all works out I’m sure it will. Good for your son .

  82. gfs kuchura snowfall trend GIF 0z and 12z
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2017030918&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=gif

    GFS trend GIF of 6z and 18z.
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2017030918&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=gif
    GFS trend 0z, 6z ,12z, 18z
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2017030918&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=gif

    canadian
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=snku_acc&rh=2017030918&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=gif

  84. ooz gfs comes in with snow then rain reaching NH boarder as it hugs the coastline and then spins over us.

  85. Yup! FINAL ANSWER! Snow to rain! 😉

    And the varying runs that the met’s on the page talked about continue to play out just as expected. And will continue for a while. Some folks have said we have consistency. We do not have consistency yet beyond that of a “storm threat”.

    1. I was actually a little disappointed with Harvey tonight using the phrase “Northeaster with snow and wind” but not stressing enough that it was only one possible outcome of the storm threat, which is where, in my opinion, the terminology should have stayed – “storm threat”.

  86. If and a big IF the gfs ends up being the correct scenario. Props for the UK model for the first one to notice it.

  87. What I find interesting is that with all the models posted here, not one was a complete MISS scenario, if I am not mistaken.

  88. Snowing right now where I am. Pavement just wet. I am hoping this is a situation where today is the appetizer Tuesday is the main course.

  90. Nice looking light snow falling.

    Borderline temps and the last 2 sunny, mild days have the lawns and trees coated and the pavement snow free. Perfect !!

  92. Also GFS ensemble way more easy than operational run.

    Still way too early to jump on any given solution for next week. Sit back and wait.

  93. It’s a strong signal for a storm. I don’t think we have seen this strong a signal for a storm this many days in advance since the Blizzard of 2013 in February. Will see what happens but it’s look like will get something the question is what will that something be.

  94. good morning.

    well we “had” some consistency.

    0z gfs blew me away, while Euro is an all out snow bomb.
    cmc a bit too far off shore. take your pick. he he he

    As bad as the 0z gfs was, the 6z has trended more east. still would introduce rain, but
    it doesn’t go as far west.

    re: ykmet
    0z trended east as well.

    in short, still too early to know for sure.

    I think we can probably say that the stretched out solution may be of the table now.

    we shall see.

    btw, the euro has an absolute bomb!!!

  96. Thanks for the good thoughts about graduation. I’m sure I could get the day–but I never ever take these iffy days. It’s just closing up the room–you would think we have the crown jewels in each one the way we have to pack everything up. It’s UMASS-Memorial–out in Worcester.

    1. indeed it is, but it is still too far out.

      consider this. what if the final solution is a blend
      of the euro, gfs and cmc! Then we would have a colossal snow bomb.

      1. I wish this was Sun night Monday then my excitement level would be through the roof. I still have some doubts. Its looks too good to be true.

  101. Visibility coming down here. Down to about 1 -1.25 miles or so.
    Beginning to look decent. We’re into more decent radar echoes.

    Oh and one more thing, the inverted trough that has been discussed concerning today’s event is looking more and more likely and perhaps a bit more potent than previously depicted. May account for the rap and hrrr uptic in snow amounts near the coast.

  105. wow!

    Snowing pretty decently here. vis under a mile now, perhaps 3/4 mile.
    Snowing much harder than I expected. Perhaps Boston should now be included
    in the advisory area????

    2. On the back-up for a few and there may be a delay to the update for a while.

      For now, no changes anyway.

    3. Boston will not be in this I suspect main roads will have 0 issues. Theme today snow with little accumulation in the city . South shore & cape game on with the cape hardest hit bring Plymouth/ south I think

  106. Tweet from Ed Vallee for next week

    Euro Ensemble guidance coming in hot with a 50% chance of 12″+ on day 4 across New England. Insane signal.

    1. Yup, every part of New England, 12+.

      Way to mislead people Ed. 😉

      No, I am sparing NOBODY.

  108. Good morning… Looks like today’s forecast is pretty much on track. Snow made it in as expected but fighting dry air to the north and a warm ground, and now the Sun angle as we get into the daylight. Will limit the ratios, but a lot of 2-4″ amounts likely, some 4-7″ amounts in the warning area.

    Next week… the idea of a powerful coastal storm is looking more probable, but is not a certainty. I do not trust the western tracks, but we can be sure that more changes are to come…

  111. Good morning. Started in Sutton around 4:30ish. We have a solid inch just eying it. Nothing on any paved areas in our neighborhood so would be surprised if main roads are different. Radar seems to show a while to go

  112. Snow has transitioned from “snow globe” snow (tons of air between each flake) to a fine, thick snow, that has accumulated quite well on grass, trees, etc. Guessing 1.25 to 1.5 inches as its getting difficult to see any blades of grass. It’s gotten relatively dark and it’s even showing first signs of greasing up the pavement here and there.

    1. In the 15ish minutes since I said that there was no accumulation on pavement, it has changed here also and our roads and all paved areas are coated. I was going to quickly run to grocery store but if it is accumulating that quickly decided to wait.

      1. I can see on radar a pulse of moderate snow working through your area and perhaps will increase Boston’s snow intensity for a short while.

    2. I think down there Tom we get in on the action for a small plowable event with Plymouth/ south getting the brunt of it say anything over the bridge .

  113. I am in Boston. Right now, downtown Roxbury to be specific.
    It is snowing quite hard. Vis down to just about 2/3 mile.

    Thick, dark low overcast rolling in from the ocean. Sky is very dark, no brightness to it at all. Looks ominous.

  115. TYPING ALERT!!!!

    I forgot my glasses. HIGH RISK of TYPOS today (as in way more than usual). 😀

  116. It is interesting to see school closings that you usually don’t see during most snow events.

  117. I’d sure appreciate any information on travel thoughts from York ME to Wellesley later this am….leaving York around noon. Thank you!

    1. Looking at the HRRR reflectivity display, it is showing light snow all the way
      down from York to Wellesley, even allowing a 2 hour trip. I wouldn’t imagine
      it would be too bad. But I can tell you it is pretty juicy in the City right now.

  118. Visibility has slipped under 2/3 mile. How do I know? Good question.
    Mission Church Lies exactly 2/3 of a mile from my office window. I cannot see
    it at all. Not even a dim outline.

    1. Snowing moderately here in Dorchester as well but streets and sidewalks just wet. Only cars and grass are snow covered.

  119. Totally unrelated Vicki comment. Tom, I forgot to mention that I have not heard the term greasing up with regard to snow in a long time. My dad used to use it. I mentioned it to my daughter and she had never heard the term.

    2. I certainly have heard that term.

      Not sure which Met used to use it?

      Don Kent
      Bob Copeland
      Barry Burbank
      Bruce Schwoegler

      One or more of those guys used to use, I believe

  122. gefs ensembles are showing f a storm Tuesday/wednesday traveling over southeast mass/cape and the islands

  125. High tide Tuesday a little after 1pm.

    10.1 ft, which is an “average” tide and leaves room for up to a 2 ft surge to result in minor flooding and splashover.

    If the winds ramp up during the incoming tide and maximize near high tide (hr 114 on the 00z run) as the GFS currently projects, moderate flooding becomes more likely.

          1. Nope – get an odd message mid-page that says something like DO NOT HOT LINKS FROM….

            May be my computer settings

  127. Snowing moderately here but the good part is outside my window the pavement is just wet. I am enjoying the appetizer now I hope I am going to be able to enjoy the main course on Tuesday.

      1. Me too. I just postponed my dr appt (just a yearly) for Tuesday. Not because I think it is set in stone, but because I won’t drive a 2.5 hour round trip if it is snowing and don’t want to be a jerk and cancel the day prior.

  128. Just barely under 3 inches in Sutton. I think the flakes are standing on each other’s heads to get to that. Moderate here as well but road and pavement have melted.

  129. JPDave I am hoping its white and not wet for that main course. Will see what the 12z runs show.

    1. If it’s wet then I hope it is BEER!

      Seriously, I “think” it will be white, but one never knows.
      It all depends. If that energy goes negative too early, then
      we have a coastal hugger or even an inland runner. Everything has
      to line up perfectly or nearly so.

      I want to think that we get a combination of the Euro, GFS and CMC and
      we get a system that passes between the benchmark and the Cape or something close to that. With the cold air in place, it “should” keep it snow
      in most of SNE except probably rain Cape and Islands.

      But there is still time for almost anything to happen and I know that.

      We wait and we wait.

  131. APOLOGIES.
    Tech issue means I can’t update blog til 3. It’s fixed. I just don’t have time til 3. 😛

  133. I am noticed that. Tucked in close to Chespeake Bay 5am Tues. Snow is breaking out here in SNE.

      1. For Boston, both. Shows about 6-10″ of upfront snow then another inch qpf as rain. Tight gradient though. Wont have to go too far north and west to get into some serious snow accumulations

  136. Rain gets involved with the storm on the 12z GFS run Boston south and east. Low tracks over Cape Cod. This is the third run the GFS has been shifting to the east.

  142. UGH don’t want this as a snow lover. Luckily plenty of time for this to change. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Major nor’easter on the GFS for Tuesday but it’s really wound up and would likely mean a lot of rain/sleet for CT.

    1. I don’t think it goes that far West. Hope I am not wrong. That would be
      a major bummer, but it would be the perfect ending to this Winter, wouldn’t it?

  143. I did notice that once the sfc low on the GFS gets to central NH, it doesn’t move very far for a 12 hr period after that.

  146. Two thoughts, what would a “Charlie Hole” Dunkin Donut look like…blue frosting with white sprinkles?

    Second what is a long range guess on the ending time for the Tuesday/Wednesday event? My wife and I fly to London to celebrate 25 yrs. in the evening on Wednesday. I’m hoping this doesn’t get too big or too late. Thanks in advance for your thoughts…

    1. I don’t have your answer but would like to wish you both a very happy 25th anniversary. Happy trails…

  147. So we got an inland messy storm on 12z GFS. CMC offshore with accumulating snow not a direct hit.

  148. Love it. Typical of medium range guidance. Have somewhat of a clue and some consistency for a couple days then completely fall off a cliff and diverge. Really want to see the euro but that will probably present an entirely new solution as well.

  151. From meteorologist Ed Vallee
    *IF* the operational GFS verified, it would be one messy storm with a rain/snow line without a doubt. Models will wobble next few days!

    Meanwhile we have the latest Canadian model well Southeast. Would take a blend and lean on ensembles for now.

    1. From what I am hearing, the CMC is usually more east than most guidance in these situations. Not sure why, but that’s what I hear

  152. Too early to really nail down Tuesday’s storm, in my opinion. It’s always great to see the model runs that JPDave (and others) put up on the blog, but I think we should wait until Saturday’s runs for a more definitive call on the Tuesday storm.

    I did notice yesterday on my drive down to Providence that the landscape is quite dry. With leafless trees and bushes it wouldn’t take much for there to be brush fires. So, I’m glad that we got some precipitation today, and it looks likely that we’ll get quite a bit next week.

    1. We can learn a lesson from the Tuesday event. We had 4 consecutive
      runs that made it look locked in. NOT SO!!!

      It’s so easy to get sucked in, oh so easy.

      The atmosphere is way too complicated and as good as the models are, they
      simply are NOT good enough to capture all of the nuances of our atmosphere.
      Add on top of that any possible slight deviations in initialized parameters.
      Take the conditions at 7AM on Friday and extrapolate out to Tuesday and try to nail what will be happening then. Nearly impossible.

      It doesn’t take much of an error in the 500 mb pattern to drastically change
      the conditions 4 days out for a specific location.

      I am simply amazed that the models can even do what they do.

      Given all of that, I can’t wait to see what the Euro spits out in a couple of hours. 😀

  153. This is what to keep an eye on, right here…

    Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits 8m8 minutes ago
    Slowing trend in northern piece is delicate. Delayed phasing advects shortwave inland but bigger separation could shift track offshore again.

    Attached was a trend gif showing how the GFS has been slowing down the northern stream piece. I’m still nowhere near being able to commit to a solution. For now all we need to know is a threat is there. However, recent upper level model trends to me suggest a somewhat decreased likelihood of a major snow event over SNE. Pay little attention to surface features for now. All about those upper level features, where they move, where/when/if they come together. Taking a closer look at things this morning, it’s a pretty tight needle things would have to pass through to produce a snowstorm for SNE. Do not toss the CMC, or the idea of an even more eastward track.

    1. It’s always delicate. Everything has to be nearly perfect to get a big snowstorm
      for SNE, yet it does happen. WIll it this time? Ahh, that is the 79 trillion dollar question.

      Right now, in all honesty, I would rather trust the SUPERIOR physics in
      the Euro than the Good FOR SH**T American model.

      We shall see. Even with that, there are times that the GFS outperforms the Euro.

      So we are hopelessly stuck in CRAPSHOOT CITY!!!!!!!

  154. I described the models to a friend who loves snowstorms as “Goldilocks and the 3 Bears”.

    The GFS is too hot, changing everything to rain across Eastern Mass.
    The CMC is too cold, with the storm suppressed too far offshore and just a glancing blow to SE New England.
    The ECMWF is JUST right, delivering a classic track.

    1. Good one SAK. 🙂

      Which track is most likely at this time? Just curious on your current thoughts.

  155. Amazingly Boston temp is 30F and yet snow is not sticking anywhere. March sun angle makes a difference to say the least.

      1. If the snow intensity were stronger the sun angle wouldn’t matter.
        With this intensity, it makes a huge difference and it really truly does matter.

  157. Where have we heard the March sun angle, warm ground, and intensity and time of day points before?

    Oh yes. I remember! 😉

  158. Something tells me a no go for Tuesday . Absolutely zilch stuck to roads & walkways in my part of Boston. Need a perfect setup this time of year. I’m so glad winter is not far from being done . Hopefully a rainy summer will not happen like a lot are forecasting .

    1. If it snows during the day in March or April – unless the intensity is dramatic – the roadways tend to remain black. But, if it snows after sunset and overnight in March or April – and it might do this next Tuesday night – there can be significant accumulation on all roadways. The March 2013 snowstorm is a reminder of that scenario. Of course April 1, 1997 comes to mind. And an anomaly of sorts – April 6, 1982 – delivered January-like snow both in terms of intensity, small flakes, and extreme cold for the time of year. The roadways certainly turned white that day.

      And John, spring is on the way. It’s just having its New England delay. Winter will be on the ropes before you know it.

    2. But …. 2 prior day leading into today were sunny and 50F +

      3 days leading into Tuesday will be 20F – 30F by day and very cold/frigid at night. Pavement temps today and Tuesday will be so different.

  159. GFS ensembles with the operational run for Tues. From Ed Vallee
    GFS ensemble similar to operational with a ‘warmer’ solution with a mix of precip. Big storm becoming likely regardless of precip type.

  160. even if its not all snow or all rain. this is indeed looking like a good size storm and honestly a mix of snow and rain could lead to major issues. especially Interior massachusetts. heavy snowfall ahead of heavy rain with wind added in could mean wide spread power outages and roof falling due to the rate compared to a plain rain or snow storm.

  163. From Bernie Rayno
    Before leaving I will have a video on next week. There is much to be excited about if you like snow.

  164. 992mb. Already …… Uh oh.

    I’m not too worried about whether Marshfield gets 2″ or 22″ of snow. I’d kind of like the coastline not to pummeled by storm surge though.

  165. I feel like we have a starring contest between GFS and EURO. Who will blink first.
    Some tweets from meteorologist Ed Vallee
    Euro MUCH colder and further east compared to the GFS. #ModelWars look to continue.

    Tuesday remains quite uncertain, however the threat for a storm is increasing. Latest Euro is snowy for southern New England and I-95.

  168. Looking at tropical tidbits site EURO 991 mb low near NC VA boarder pressure drops to 969 east of Cape of Cod.

        1. We can get it exact. Hold a second. I’ll get the qpf figures for the same time/location. Make a division and we have it.

        2. ACE, I just computed them.

          About 11-12 to 1 from North Shore through Boston To about RI.

          24 hour qpf ranged from 2.11 to 2.41 inches or so.

            1. Again, based on that run and their algorithm and qpf. But I’d say with the cold in place and a benchmark or near benchmark system 11 or 12 to 1 seems
              very reasonable. At least it wasn’t something crazy like 20:1. 😀

            1. I’d love to see it become a top 10 or even better a top 5 snow storm.

              Just TOO far off to even begin to think about that, but YET I went ahead and did, didn’t I? Sorry.

              We’ll we are allowed to fantasize, no?

              What if?

              Watch the Euro be dead wrong and on one of these runs, it STICKS it on the coast and we get a rainorama!!! 😀

              1. The euro is bound to get its swagger back and nail one of these right in its wheelhouse. It’s really struggled in this timeframe for a while now do we’ll see. On a side note, I know everyone keeps saying its a ways off, but its only 4 days!! We’re all talking like its 7+ days away

                1. I know it is 4 datys off, but look what was going on with today’s event only 2 days ago. 😀

    1. I might just print that and frame it 🙂 🙂

      Caption below will read : we ended up with 5 inches.

  171. Special weather statement for area north and west of Boston re : development of snow showers this afternoon.

    1. Looks like there’s one intensifying a bit at the intersection of Rte 2 and Rte 128 and another just southwest of Manchester, NH

  172. Tom, you beat me to it. I was just noticing a heavier band of snow about to move in.
    IT is arriving here as the visibility is down again. It’s under a mile here, approaching
    3/4 mile but NOT 2/3 mile. 😀

    1. Interesting 1:30pm update to discussion noting some convergence with WNW sfc winds converging with NNE surface winds. They expect these snow showers to intensify a bit and offer a chance of up to at an additional inch of snow in Boston and eastern Mass through this evening.

      1. High Res models have been showing that. I Believe that is
        the inverted trough. Makes sense anyway.

        Models had shown that for about 20-22Z before, so perhaps
        it’s just a bit early.

        2. It is. Here is the discussion:

          However the approaching short wave is amplifying as it takes on
          a negative tilt and this strong forcing has induced an inverted
          trough extending northwest from the coastal cyclone back into RI
          and east-central MA. This shows up nicely on the surface
          observations as a line of convergence with WNW winds at FIT-
          ORH-SFZ with northeast winds at LWM-OWD-TAN. KBOX radar now
          picking up a broken line of snow showers along and near this
          area of low level convergence. Mesoscale guid capturing this
          nicely and pushes this line of snow showers into eastern MA thru
          21z and then intensifies the line by 00z over Cape Ann to Cape
          Cod. Much of the forcing pierces thru the snow growth region so
          these snow showers could produce a quick inch or two 20z-24z
          across eastern MA including the Boston area. Not a lot of snow
          but could impact the late day commute across this area.

  173. Happy with the way today’s forecast worked out. 2″ line just about to the Pike. Lots of 2-4″ totals. Some 6-7″ amounts realized in the WSW area. Surface type was definitely a factor. Remember, as recent as Wednesday morning a lot of the guidance had pretty much all of this going south. I like to think I correctly identified the subtle error when I made my first call Wednesday, but maybe it was just a lucky guess 🙂

    1. You did make it, as we discussed your reasons. It was not a guess. You clearly reasoned it out. Great call.

  174. Snow is beginning to stick to sidewalks, which suggests it’s either getting colder or the surface has gotten rid of its warmth from recent days. Pedestrians, beware of icy sidewalks this evening.

    1. My car thermometer was reading 31 an hour ago.
      It is now 2:30 and the sun angle is beginning to get lower as well.
      Intensity is picking up.

      Add it all up and snow is accumulating better. 😀

    1. I am! I’ll be on to update soon. This is the 2nd time this season that a tech issue has stopped me from updating final forecast numbers.

  178. Northwest suburbs are getting slammed. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1-2″ amount come out from somewhere there.

    1. Yup and it’s moving into the CITY and expanding as it goes.

      Latest radar loop:

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.3782608695652174&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=331.26436781609186&centery=340.45977011494256&transx=-68.73563218390814&transy=100.45977011494256&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24819592&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  179. SNOWING quite hard in the City now. Vis now UNDER 2/3 mile and still dropping.

    It looks BEAUTIFUL!!!

  180. Snowing like crazy here in Brookline and now starting to see some surfaces whitening up a bit that were plain wet a short time ago.

  181. We seemed to have topped it off with about 3.75″. Some has settled so we may have made 4. All paved surfaces are bare. Looks pretty, no shoveling, driving ok…..what’s not to like 😉

    1. The way this trough is moving in, we may reach your total. 😀
      Probably not, but it is really coming down now. 😀

      1. Oh yeah, all of the sidewalks outside of my office are getting covered and streets are next.

        Moderate to Heavy snow here. Vis 1/4 to 1/2 mile.

    2. HISTORIC STORM?

      And then comes that little storm threat next week. Right now we are focused on the Tuesday through early Wednesday timeframe. This has the potential to be a classic.

      The storm comes out of the Midwest, redevelops off the Carolina’s and rapidly intensifies (bombogenesis anyone?), and slams New England and perhaps the entire Northeast with blinding snows and powerful winds.

      Seriously, if this thing comes together and takes an ideal track (a solution that is very plausible right now), this would be an historic March snowstorm for the entire Northeast. Potential for widespread foot-plus snowfall, damaging/prolonged northeast winds, and some serious coastal flooding.

    1. I am, I am, I am, I am

      Not sure what the accumulation is. I can tell you when I went home for
      lunch there was more snow at my house than here at the office.

      Even with this burst, not sure we make 2 inches. We’ll see.

  188. Isn’t every storm “historic”, given that every day becomes a part of history? Just sayin…

    Updating blog now…

  189. Now it has lightened up. Vis back up to near 1 mile.
    It was really nice while it lasted. At least it was longer than a snow squall.

  190. Even though it has lightened up and there is currently a lull, there looks to be
    one more batch on the way. 😀

  191. No sun here. I also focused on the term potentially. But then that is me. I try to tune out hype.

    Funny part is, that while I was shopping this morning, I heard several people mention the possibility of a storm Tuesday. Each one just said they don’t know yet. I spoke to two contractors at different time the past two days. They watch the weather for obvious reasons. Both said maybe yes, maybe no. I am not so sure people are that obsessed with the wording. Intelligent folks understand that headlines hype no matter what the topic. Breaks before commercials are called teasers for a reason.

    Oh, by the way. My food shopping is complete. I hear that there will be a massive storm next week and I wanted to get there before the milk and bread were gone.

    1. AH HA, IT IS OFFICIAL. Major, historic storm next week……Arod is here!!!

      Seriously, though. How are you? Good to see you.

  193. It has now stopped totally here. BUT I expect some more soon. Probably for my commute home. 😀

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