Monday Forecast

367 Comments

7:31AM

This update is not showing any changes to the forecast at this point. Another blog update this afternoon will cover any adjustments that need to be made. I realize a slight westward shift is apparent in some of the guidance but that does not necessarily mean this is going to be the final outcome. Look for an update around 4PM.

Reminders…
* Don’t look at a computer model forecast of snow totals online or TV and think that’s automatically the forecast. I’m not a fan of these being shown on TV weather forecasts because they cause confusion. Who needs to see what the Euro, NAM, and GFS, and Canadian model for that matter are showing when the meteorologist is more than capable of looking at that data and coming up with the best forecast he or she can? Yes, we discuss them openly here on the blog, but its with the understanding that they are model forecasts and models have significant biases that the general public doesn’t need to be concerned with.
* When you see a forecast snowfall range here or anywhere else, PLEASE remember to pay attention to the range, NOT just the top number. For example, “12 to 18 inches” does not mean “18 inches”. It means “12 to 18 inches” The ranges are there for a reason. Snowfall accumulates at a ratio anywhere from 5 to 20+ times greater than rainfall does. A tiny difference in the amount of melted precipitation can make a huge difference in the amount of snow that falls. Please understand that snowfall can vary highly, even over fairly short distances, based on topography, proximity to ocean, and other factors.
* Realize that a forecast is a forecast. It’s a prediction of the future movement of complex fluids of differing densities. Always check trusted sources for updates, because even the best meteorologist will never make a perfect forecast. It’s impossible.
* Weed through media hype and listen to the facts. Most TV meteorologists out there in this area are decent, and though they have to play the ratings game, they will generally give a well thought-out forecast. Forget the sensationalism the anchors may throw out at you, even though it is not of bad intent. It’s just not necessary.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)
Just a forecast update for now. Full discussion on this afternoon’s blog post.
TODAY: Sunshine becomes filtered by high clouds later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow South Coast before dawn. Lows 22-30. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow area pushes north quickly in the early to mid morning and becomes heavy at times, first in RI and southern MA then the remainder of MA into NH, likely changes to rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, probably changes to rain mid Cape and Martha’s Vineyard, and may mix with rain a little further into southeastern MA and southern and eastern RI. Lightning/thunder is possible in heavier precipitation bands. By evening precipitation becomes lighter or stops in RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH but snow lingers to the west before tapering off later. Expected snow accumulation through evening: 3-5 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 5-10 inches Martha’s Vineyard and mid Cape Cod westward to about the southern Cape Cod Canal, and 10-15 inches elsewhere with pockets of 15-18 inches possible in northwestern RI and eastern CT, central and east central MA, and southern NH, then amounts diminishing gradually to mostly under 10 inches over northwestern CT and western MA. Highs 25-30 most interior locations and 30-35 coastal areas but 35-45 over Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind NE 15-25 MPH inland with gusts 30-40 MPH, 25-35 MPH coast with frequent gusts 40-50 MPH, occasional gusts 50-60 MPH, and isolated gusts above 60 MPH especially coastal southeastern MA.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow. Additional accumulation likely. Lows 15-25. Highs 25-35. Coldest interior areas.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-20. Highs 25-35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-25. Highs 30-40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)
Watching possible storminess during the March 18-20 period. Dry March 21. More potential unsettled weather about March 22. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)
Watching possible storminess again later period. Temperatures near to below normal.

367 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. For example take the RGEM it’s has about 90% of precip as snow and then as low crosses the region there would be a slight change to sleep/rain for eastern sections. Again maybe cutting slightly back on totoals but most of the damage is already done.

  6. Also how many times have we seen slight west shift around 24 hrs prior to event and just as we lose hope they shift east.

    1. Agree!

      As much as I would like to see less snow, I think there are 2 factors that will occur. 1) The track will wobble east a bit on future runs which seems to happen more often than not when the east-west pendulum keeps swinging back and forth in the winter, and 2) the rain line cuts through after the majority of the snow falls.

      Iā€™m not liking either one, but I am hard pressed to see less than 10ā€³ in Boston and 12-16ā€³ seems very plausible. (Just because I said that, the storm will now jump 25 miles to the east and bury B-town.)

    1. Thank you for doing this. I love to look at these.

      Do you have the timing on this? I presume these are NOT adjusted
      for the Westward shift in Guidance???

      1. These maps were the most recent as of 7am. A lot of the meteorologists have the maps with the caveat of an update coming later.

  12. Good morning again from the office.

    Thank you TK for the update. Look forward to you big update around 4PM.

    I was looking forward to being off tomorrow, now I am not so sure.
    Even IF it were to change to rain, I don’t think it would be until later in the day, somewhere in the 2-6,3-7,4-8 PM time frame. I cannot pin it down just yet.
    So, we may close even with a forecast of a change to rain. Not sure yet.

    We’ll factor in the 12Z guidance before making a decision.

    1. Toughest part is making the decision. I don’t envy you. Been there too many times.

      Quiet here today – as you said….calm before the storm. Light wind, ice blue, cloudless sky. Is there really a feeling of calm or is it imagined?

      1. Vicki,

        Actually, I don’t make the call, but I do have input.
        Our executive director convenes a meeting of all senior staff
        and then I get asked about the latest information on the storm.

    2. I’ve been telling people to not count on having tomorrow off. Simply because some people (the governor included) might see that since the big snow doesn’t come in until the afternoon why not have people work at least half a day and go from there. I could be wrong but at the moment this is my gut feeling on how some employers and even schools will roll the dice.

      1. I am afraid you are correct. Been saying all along the timing stinks for those who work for just the reason you gave. They do that and then the trip home is delayed just enough to get everyone into a ton of trouble.

        1. Oops – I should have added that I’m not as sure about schools having early release. A good amount of parents of younger children would probably have to take the day anyway for fear they could not get home to meet the bus.

          We have had two days (I think) which puts the schools out on June 15. Still early.

          1. One kid on another site I post these maps to said they have a test on Tuesday and asked if they’d have the day off. I said: study for the test and pray for the best. While I believe schools will be closed tomorrow I always say never count on it until it’s announced! šŸ™‚

            1. Absolutely. And then he will have tomorrow to relax. Interestingly, my best teachers all advised not studying night before a test. They said, if you don’t know it by then, you can’t cram it in. But then these were the best teachers and I paid attention because I enjoyed them.

      2. Schools have a lot more to consider with early dismissal. It is definitely something they try to avoid.

          1. LOL…early release is a nightmare and I sure hope they don’t go that route. We’ve had three days so we are already out to the 19th.

      3. If anything, the governor jumps the gun and tells people to stay off the roads well before the first flake even falls. Same with schools these days. I have a feeling most if not all schools will cancel for tomorrow before the end of today’s school day. The governor will have a presser during the evening local news to tell people to stay off the roads and encourage businesses to close.

        1. I think he should do that. If he waits until morning, many have already left for work. It also helps businesses make a decision. The couple of times he and patrick closed roads were among the best decisions I have seen a governor make.

        3. Wrong choice of words. I didn’t mean to say jump the gun. I meant that those things are usually done ahead of time before the snow starts falling, especially with a high impact storm like this one will be, I agree with it.

          1. So easy to do. Especially if one is sleep deprived. We agree which does not surprise me. Hoping you can remain home.

      1. He can come stay here!! From latest totals you posted, JPD, we are just south of the jackpot area…I THINK. Hard for me to see exactly.

  15. I don’t think it should be a tough decision re : tomorrow.

    In my opinion, It’s going to pound snow like nuts from late morning through mid afternoon regardless of track. 2-3 inches per hr for a good 3 to 4 hrs. That sounds like keep everyone off the roads to me. šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚

    1. Tom,

      As usual you have a good deal of common sense.
      Seems like the prudent approach to me. šŸ˜€

  18. I am not an expert and make mistakes doing this, but I was just analyzing the
    latest HRRR and it “appears” to me that it wants to track more to the East
    than last night’s Euro run.

    Has anyone looked at it? 500Mb and 250MB looks more favorable to me for
    a slight eastward jog.

    Am I misreading the information? I am probably not skilled enough in analysis, but
    It sure looks better to me.

  19. Thanks Dr. S for posting the updated ch. 5 forecast. I guess it now looks like Boston will end up with around a foot of SLOP. Might have known it was too good to be true for an all snow event. Shoveling is going to be quite difficult to say the least.

    UGH!!!!!! šŸ™

  21. It just keeps hugging the coast. It is making a slight turn, but perhaps too late.
    Final verdict not in yet.

  23. CRAP. JUST when the MOST intense precip is upon us, NAM shows 850mb 0C line
    right over Boston. Crap and double Crap. Because where this stays snow, HOLY CRAP BATMAN!

  24. JPD – if it does hug coast, how far inland will mix get? Definitely not asking for confirmation of numbers. Just wondering what happens if that is scenario. Also, will it limit numbers as far up as Maine? Thank you, sir!

  27. NAM track is between Boston and the Canal. Even with the deep cold, it is too close
    and it goes over to rain (possibly sleet) at Boston, but stays all Snow from “about” 128
    Westward. May go back to snow even.

  29. Thanks, TK.

    I think this is a Worcester, Sutton, Spencer, Fitchburg, Groton special with two feet of snow in certain locales west of 495. I think Boston may get to 10 inches, but I’m skeptical. The westward jog is real, the ocean water is relatively warm, and I do think this will impact snow amounts east of 95. Boston could wind up with a long period of heavy sleet before a changeover to plain rain and rising temperatures. Then there may be a changeover back to some snow on Wednesday as the next system pulls through dragging colder air with it.

  30. One thing to note – and I’m a total amateur on this – is the positioning of the High to our northwest appears to be a bit west of where it should be ideally for a classic all-snow scenario at the coast.

    1. that’s just damn depressing! If its going to snow keep all snow don’t need water logged snow to move not good for a lot of people.

  33. The 3KM and 4KM Nams look a bit better. I need a bit more time for them to complete
    to post.

    Regardless, this is my main concern:

    With this track, the STRONGER winds get into Boston.
    With a heavy wet snow accumulation and those winds, I am VERY concerned
    about trees going down with wide-spread power outages.

    We have our flashlights and candles all set to go. Replaced batteries in 2 of the flashlights (we have five ready to go).

  37. Boston will probably mix, but I think the heaviest precip comes in the form of snow. Most of the damage will be done by the time the mix line moves in. I’d set the over/under at 12″ for the city, the last 4″ or so of that being quite sloppy. Highest totals along and just north/west of 495, where a 16-22″ band is possible. 10-16″ inside there to 95, and decreasing as you go southeast of there where more mixing occurs. Beast of a storm. Central pressure projections remain very impressive, 980mb give or take at our latitude. Wind damage, coastal flooding at the 1-2PM high tide cycle, and beach erosion are all significant concerns to me.

    1. With a foot of snow and 4 inches of sleet and rain on top of it, that sounds just plain nasty. To me it seems worse than an all snow 1.5 feet or so.

      2. Vicki, we’ll never see 4 inches of sleet.
        Boston “may” see 1/4 to 1/2 inch of sleet at best if that. Probably just a coating of sleet before rain.

  39. 3KM NAM shows SLEET into Boston by 18Z after about 10 inches of snow.
    Will post maps shortly. Still slowly chugging out data. Shows 4-5 inches
    in one hour from 16Z to 17Z. Which with DST is 1 to 2 PM and sleet by 3PM.

  40. Does anyone know how well the Kuchera Method handles sleet?

    Although we have been warned to be cautious in using the Kuchera Method,
    I am wondering with possible sleet and wet snow if the Kuchera totals (at least near
    the coast) aren’t the best to use or at least to be guided by those?????

  45. At what point do we stop looking at the medium to long range globals for details and rely solely on the short range high res models for this event?

      1. That’s what I figured. Won’t stop us from obsessing over every GFS and euro run though šŸ™‚

  46. Whoa – JPD just saw your comment that EURO gives Sutton 24 inches. Okay then!

    Went to pharmacy in grocery store (don’t have to wait in line). Was surprised grocery store parking was simple. Package store parking was packed!!!

      1. From what I understand, that is pretty much the norm. In this case, I’m thinking it makes sense. If there are widespread power outages, it is wise to have food on hand. Of course, you can follow my plan. I made chocolate chip muffins this morning and will live on sugar!!

        1. In my mind it was only wise a few decades ago. Now we have better forecasting and preparedness for snow removal. I wasn’t stuck in my house after so many feet in 2015. Now I only get bread when I actually need bread as usual! šŸ™‚

  49. I don’t know if it will be with the whole column or the lower levels late in the storm, but I believe the cold will perform better than being modeled. Eastern Canada is cold and there’s reasonable high pressure up there.

  50. Did anyone else see Matt noyes calling for 24-30+ in merrimack valley. anyone see this trend, i love snow, but i really don’t want to be teaching on the 4th of July šŸ™‚

    1. Yea, I think they just realized they’re always on the low end of snowfall predictions among the tv stations so they wanted to make a headline splash.

    2. That forecast puzzles me. The video was rather dramatic as well. I’d love to hear love his reasoning.

        1. Tropical Tidbits site has it stuck on 36hrs, but enough to see that it has come west as well, traversing the low right over the canal.

  52. I am probably a strange one in which its spring break. I am getting ahead of classes, and writing this grant proposal, at least that was the plan,.Writing this grant proposal is prooving to be hard lol . One because I am distracted by the storm, 2 because I am finally going out this week to ski recreationally and also plan on racing. Storm just in time for skiing and lots of it. Hoping for Wednesday, POW-DAY in March, we have not had a shot of these good conditions this late in the season for a long time.

          2. YES! You are correct. I am so used to seeing
            that color for sleet.

            You are 100% correct.

            ALL SNOW for Boston on this run anyway.

            Euro up next and to a much lesser extent
            the CMC is cranking.

  63. I hope we do get to heavy snow bands in NE mass. I saw some animation where there is a lighter snow bands in NE mass then gets to the action in the end. I hope it doesn’t happen what I said yesterday which is is heavy snow bands from nw Middlesex county to worcester. Leaving a hole in ne mass because thr low is close

  64. CMC is a Cape Cod Canal track…flips to mix/rain inside 128 but well over 1″ QPF as heavy snow before that happens.

    1. Do you work in Plymouth or in that vicinity? If so, I don’t think they should close just yet. You will have lots of precipitation, but that indications are that not much of it will be frozen. In fact, if the westward trend continues, Plymouth could wind up with only a couple of front end inches of snow followed by sleet and heavy rain. There will be lots of wind.

  67. Very tricky scenario. I like what GFS is selling, but I can’t entirely buy it. In my experience, for coastal Massachusetts from Boston south, lows traversing the CC canal produce snow (and sometimes lots) on the front end, but sleet and possibly rain do wind up mixing in if not changing the precipitation completely. I do see that the High is a cold one, but having the low traverse the CC Canal means an East wind, which east of I-95 usually translates to mixing.

    By the way, Matt, I do see a scenario in which the Merrimack Valley does very well with this storm. Perhaps a bit of sleet, but I think you will be almost exclusively snow and a lot of it.

  68. CMC does look colder, but at this point it’s going to be where we watch the storm develope. CMC has over 1 inch apt before any mix even come up to Boston.

    1. Yes, but we need to focus on the track. I’m serious about this. The ocean water never got very cold this year and with an East wind I’m afraid Boston could see mixing even earlier than the models project, and a complete changeover to plain rain before yet another changeover back to snow (by that time, however, it’ll be too late for much accumulating snow on the back end). We could very easily wind up with a scenario in which Worcester is stuck at 22F with all snow, and Boston is at 36F with rain at a certain point tomorrow late afternoon. I’m not even sure Boston gets to 10 inches of front end snow.

      1. I don’t see it happening that way to be honest. Dynamics will be in play as well as the high to the north. Fun times for sure.

        1. You could be right, and I’m hoping you are. I do not like mixing or rain on top of snow for a multitude of reasons. But, the models have all been picking up on something regarding the westward trend. Let’s hope the Euro doesn’t continue that trend further west. This said, central NE and the mountains would do very well with the current scenario and even if it trended a bit further west.

  70. Btw I am not saying Boston area is at all jackpot, clearly that’s not the case. I do though believe a solid 12-16 inches before any changeover should that even occur.

  71. Technically, do we have a cold high directly to our north? Or is the storm just going to feed in and use up whatever cold we have left? The only way Boston can stay all frozen precip is for the storm to go completely underneath SNE and I am not certain a CCC track is going to do it. WBZ has reduced snow amounts to pretty much single digits (6-12″) for Boston…SLOP!!! šŸ™

    I have no problem with smaller amounts…it’s the slop and cement that I will have to shovel thereafter…UGH!!!

  73. Key for Boston is how quick the snow pounds before a chance for chnagiver. I am betting enough to achieve the foot+ mark.

  74. gfs (gives you a good idea on wind gusts) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031312/gfs_mslp_uv850_neus_6.png

    canadian
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017031312/gem_mslp_uv850_neus_6.png
    nam 12k
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017031312/namconus_mslp_uv850_neus_31.png
    nam4k
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017031312/nam4km_mslp_uv850_neus_31.png
    rgem
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017031312/rgem_mslp_uv850_neus_11.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2017031300/wrf-arw_mslp_uv850_neus_43.png
    FIM
    https://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?keys=fim_jet:&runtime=2017031300&plot_type=wind_850&fcst=042&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=0
    Gusts of 50+ across most of Eastern Massachusetts, RI and CT

  75. Who said you don’t learn from Facebook? I learned a new word and then looked up another

    I am a pluviophile…..and many of us would be considered a Chionophile….perhaps JPD at the top of the list for the latter.

    1. Thank you. May I add the March 1984 storm to your list of forgotten storms (a decent one on this date and then a rather significant one at end of month). And yes, April – as late as April 29 – and of course May.

      1. I only added the ones that I could quickly get maps for. 1984 was definitely on the list though, and if I really wanted, I could have added the true granddaddy of them all – the Blizzard of 1888.

  84. Trend is NOT our friend, at least those of us who like snow. This could turn out to be a mostly mix/rain event in Boston with less than 6 inches of front end snow. How different things were just 18 hours ago in terms of model forecasts.

    1. Euro may pound the last nail into the coffin, but we shall see.
      ALL EYES ARE ON THE EURO.

      If it goes farther West, look for many forecasts and snowmaps to be updated. šŸ˜€

      1. Right now we have GFS and NAMS mostly snow
        CMC predominately snow as well, but with some rain.

        Ukmet garbage time with tons of rain

        Euro to be determined.

        2. Problem is the track. Even GFS, NAM, and CMC are projecting a CCC track. I can’t see an all-snow event in Boston with that track, and that’s our best-case scenario at this point. If UKMET were to verify we would see practically no snow at all in Boston. What’s preventing the storm center from meandering further westward? No classic High to our northwest. The one from this weekend is retreating, while the replacement High is too far west at this point. It’s coming, but too late for a classic nor’easter. If the storm were to slow down – which it won’t – we’d get an all-snow event Tuesday night and Wednesday.

      1. Euro 48 hours. Do the extrapolation and it looks to pass
        just about over boston or just East of it. NOT GOOD for snow.

        We’ll get some and then go to rain. My service lags behind so I have no snow figures nor do I have the 850mb temps. My service
        has better time increments up front. Liek 6 hour. My service is out to 30 hours. let me check now.

    2. Drawing a line between 24hr placement and 48hr placement, CCC or even further west šŸ˜„

  86. What time frame is the HRRR’s wheelhouse? Is it extended too far right now to be of good use?

    1. It is typically run for 18 hours out. I don’t know it’s wheelhouse, but I would
      presume the whole 18 hours. Perhaps someone else knows for sure????

  87. Another not good thing about the continued westward shift …..its bringing the very strong 850mb jet further west with it. And, if a western track brings in milder surface air, I would think that only increases the chances of that low level jet mixing down to the surface.

    1. Stinks as far as I’m concerned, because cold rain is just miserable. We’ve had plenty of cold rain earlier this winter. Oh well. At least Vicki will see plenty of snow, I think. And ski country will see a boatload of snow.

    1. Oh yes, don’t write off the snow yet.

      Still, even now, after the latest westward shift, a hefty front end dump.

    2. I was wondering why the governor said if you don’t need to be on the road stay off it… But stopped short of calling off nonessentials. This explains it. Thanks for the update.

  91. This really means you can’t trust models until really 24 hours from the event. Last thing on my mind, (at least the last few days) that it will change to rain in boston, yet alone the northshore. I wouldn’t be surprised if boston didn’t reach a double digit total. EVER model trended west, no room for west trend now. Also low coming closer to boston you have a risk of dry slot

    1. I think this is all because the 500mb feature to the west of the coastal surface low sharpened up a bit and seems to be closer in proximity to the coastal low, which has further sharpened the SSW winds aloft along the east coast.

      1. Thanks for the explaination tom. I just hate getting my hopes up for nothing lol. Nonetheless, still not a bad storm I guess.

        1. I understand šŸ™‚

          Reading for your location, if I recall ??

          I think your area will do fine, maybe ….. too much heavy wet snow.

          1. Yes correct. Looking at the euro it actually has my area around 15 inches. 15 inches of heavy wet snow. One heck of a workout I am going to have there!

      1. Yup, don’t write off Boston, and its southwestern suburbs re : lots of snow.

        All that’s happened today is to take the threat of power outages at the coastline and expand them further inland because a wetter snow will now fall even further inland.

  93. I guess, now we wait for the 18Z NAMs. šŸ˜€

    For kicks, can look at the 12Z FIM when available 4PM? 5PM?

    1st NAM data about 3:30 to 4PM

  94. I keep looking at the data. There is still plenty of Cold North of us. That is what
    keeps it snow for so long as it is because normally this track is a RAIN maker.
    I keep looking at it and also looking at the GFS and the NAMS.

    Boston is NOT out of the Woods on this and still could end up with a Major snow storm, even if there is a brief change to rain later.

    And after careful analysis, I do believe that the 12Z euro jogged about 20 miles to
    the East as compared with the 0Z run. That is a good sign. At least it did NOT
    come West.

    I can see the COLD holding out in Boston. A mix or change is virtually a LOCK for
    the South Shore, but Boston “could” make it into the all snow or mostly snow zone.

    1. I agree.

      Its almost like south-central New England is the spot where the system encounters some resistance from the cold dome of air to our north.

      So, at first appearance, based on experience, where the low is coming from gives the appearance today of the winds going SE and temps soaring into the 40s.

      And as you mentioned above, I don’t think that’s the case. And also, as you pointed out, I think Boston and its suburbs are where that line will be held.

      Right before the precip begins tomorrow, I can see Logan having an ENE wind, a temp that rises to 33F or 34F, but when the heavy precip arrives, the temp will drop to 30F or 31F and be a struggle from there to rise until after 4pm.

    1. Yes, BUT it will be fighting a warm air intrusion aloft. The warm air will
      only make it so far. It WILL be a battle.

  96. From Anthony Siciliano.

    Don’t be shocked if models got this wrong and surface low ends/jumps closer to war core

      1. Another one that thinks he knows more than everybody else despite no education whatsoever. Also thinks he’s above criticism.

    1. Yes and I think that means surface low ends up being somewhat EAST
      of where it is currently modeled. Fits in with Tom’s and My discussion.

  98. Another little thing ….

    Most of the temps were supposed to get to or slightly exceed 32F today. I thought on one of the weathercasts last night, I saw 35F for Boston, 37F for Nashua, low-mid 30s in general.

    I do suppose with DST, the high temps will be at 4pm, maybe 5pm, but pretty much everywhere is currently just shy of 30F. The high temps in the end will probably underperform by 1 to 3F.

    1. You reading my wife’s mind. I came home for lunch and she was pissed
      that it was still 28 when Harvey told her last night that it would be 34.
      I told her it would be in the low 30s by 2 or 3PM. Well it is nearly 3PM what is it now? I’m seeing 30 currently at Logan. Not going up much more, if any.

  99. Sorry for you guys in Boston points south and east, but i am absolutly loving this šŸ˜€ šŸ˜€ :D. About time for a good snow storm west of I95.

    1. I’m glad your happy !!

      If the wind gusts are what they are supposed to be, believe me, I am praying for rain !!!

      I’ve lived the heavy wet snow + wind event before and the challenges of no power for days. Not something I want to go through again.

    2. It’s been a while matt since the NW areas got more. Let’s hope, for your sake, this is the final outcome šŸ™‚

    2. Did you see that SAK put that in his outlook this morning or last night.
      I thought that it was HILARIOUS!!!!!

      1. Here it is:

        Tuesday: Hazy, hot and humid. Windy with snow, heavy at times. High 26-33, except 33-40 across Cape Cod.

        Except he had the HHH line out. šŸ˜€ šŸ˜€ šŸ˜€

    1. I am getting somewhat confused with the rain/snow line discussion. I think it will not impact Sutton and we will also have a significant amount, JJ. Hoping you stay in jackpot zone!!

  104. I’m surprised Boston has not closed school. Worcester did. Although I’m finding different schools on each of the three major sites so perhaps they are slow to update. I have yet to see anything close out this way as of now.

    1. Given the new westward track, Boston is a tough call. By the time the kids get out of school, it could already be raining.

        1. Even if it rains, there will be so much snow, they
          will have no choice. IF they open, some one’s head
          should roll!!!

    3. My guess is they will announce their closing at 4p. The Mayor is having a press conference at 4p. I’ve been refreshing the city of boston website to see if there has been a snow emergency (parking ban) declared and saw that he will be speaking 4p. Gotta keep the suspense, I guess. šŸ™‚

      1. Thank you. I will turn on TV to see what he says and I’m sure you are correct.

        The school systems out here don’t seem to announce closings until evening so I’m not surprised.

      2. Thanks Nerak. As a Bostonian especially, I will look forward to that press conference. šŸ™‚

  105. And one more new word (new for me anyway)

    ceraunophile …. a person who likes thunder and lightning

  107. To address an earlier question, my amounts on the most recent post did not include Wednesday, but I’m going to adjust a little on the next post which will be soon, and downplay Wed a little bit.

      1. Not really. There is nothing to downplay. The storm is still coming. The only adjustment that needs making is the snow/sleet/rain line which was always a possibility. Snow amounts get tweaked accordingly, but it’s not really a down-play. The storm will still be just as powerful and impactful, just in a slightly different way at a few given locations.

    2. Does that mean for Wednesday?
      The Closed 500mb low still drifts over us on Wednesday.
      What happened? Curious and thanks

      1. Nothing happened. It’s just not quite as strong as I thought it might be. There will still be some areas that get accumulation. But it won’t be a max-performer.

    3. I think you had said a possible (stress possible) inch on Wednesday so downplay would be poof šŸ˜‰

  111. Disappointing about the westward trend, but at least my back might be spared a touch while shoveling…

    1. Your back will have issues. The snow will be water-logged and even heavier to move around. No way the snow will wash away with temps in the 30s. I may be in the same situation as well.

  116. 12z Euro ensembles line up almost perfectly with the operational run, which tracks over New Bedford and then just east of Boston. No help there.

    1. But, the low from here appears to move ENE as opposed to its previous NNE movement up the coast.

      All the NAM has to be off is 25 miles and your golden JpDave.

  121. NAM is about 30-50 miles even further west with that run if I am reading it correctly. Mix line will be to Albany if this trend continues.

    1. I can’t stand this. Why didn’t we just get this crap in the first place.
      What a Tease.

      Now we wait for the GFS which we’ll start to see about 5:30PM

  123. Man or man does this suck………Oh, what could have been with this monster!

    I’m renting a charter bus to Syracuse tonight if anyone wants to hop in with me….

  128. I’m not sure snow haters would rejoice given the upfront dumping of snow that will fall. Rain Snow lines are literally impossible to predict, so I’m not overly concerned. If I’m not mistaken the heaviest precip tends to be north of the low. I believe that was the case during 78 when the low sat south of LI….completely different set ups, but the point is the heaviest precip will be in the form of snow

      1. The heavy stuff will probably be snow in Boston.

        The lighter stuff preceding the end of the precip will probably be drizzle / light rain.

        I’m sure I’m overstating, but the power outage potential even inland now for perhaps 30-50 miles is very very high, even without wind gusts. 10-12 inches of waterlogged snow is an issue.

    2. I’ve thrown in the towel on this one. Boston won’t even see 6 inches of snow. I think the westward jog or sprint will continue. There’s nothing in the way of it meandering further west. My guess is that the Low traverses over Boston, which means that you’ll have to go at least 60 miles west to see an all-snow event.

      1. Perhaps for all snow, but as Tom stated, the bulk of the qpf will be in snow. When it rains it will be lighter and the damage done.

        We shall see.

        3KM NAM cranking now. We’ll see if that is any different
        OR follows suit.

      2. Just a run-of-the-mill snow/rain event for Boston. Really nothing to see here. At best, Boston will have normal snowfall (43.8″).

        šŸ™

        1. This will not be a run-of-the-mill event for Boston. There is a lot more to the system than snow/rain.

    2. That’s ludicrous. Low’s track doesn’t support it, surface temps really don’t support it, and it’s a daytime storm in March. Doesn’t make sense. Winds will not only be easterly they may be southeasterly for a period of time.

  131. I’m not comparing this storm to the super storm of 93.

    That incredible storm was more intense, tracked further west than this one will and it managed to dump 12.6 inches of snow at Boston.

    I do think they have one similarity, a huge amount of precip ahead of the low that will get in here before the column can moderate enough to change it over.

    2-3 inches per hr from 11-3 gets you 8-12. On the nam radar simulations, the precip is so intense during these 4 hrs. We’ve seen in the past how that can help and until at least 3 pm, I don’t think the column in Boston will need that much cooling to remain snow.

  132. Trends can either be your friend or your worst nightmare. There is no denying the fact that as early as late yesterday evening the nightmare has begun. Snow amounts need to be significantly tweaked downward. I see the I95 belt seeing 6-10 inches before going to rain. Boston likely sees a half a foot before the change over. Less to the southeast due to quicker change over and dry slotting. From 95 to 495, 8-15 inches with 8 closer around I95 prior to the change over and 15 around the 495 belt before mix is involved. West and north of Worcester should remain predominantly snow with the highest likelihood of achieving 15-20 with localized higher amounts. Obviously there is still time for forecasts to change but not looking like a historic storm in terms of snowfall for Boston and its immediate suburbs. This trend is NOT good for snowlovers.
    Regarding next weekend, I’m shocked that numbers of 3-5 inches are being tossed out there for Sunday. This kind of stuff does not please TK. WAY to premature considering that may even be a warmer storm than tomorrow’s.

    1. The pivotal snow map doesn’t even make much sense. I’d go with tidbits over the pivotal.

  136. Blizzard warnings up for all of SNE and all the way west to the Catskills yet Blizzard warnings have been cancelled on the coast. Cant recall a time I have ever seen that before.

  137. It’s 4:40pm where’s my update? Lol. Looks like the general consensus here is to tweak forecasts down a touch on the snow totals. I’m up just north of Boston, and I’m okay with that.

  138. I’m sorry, I respectfully disagree with this idea of a major drop in snowfall amounts.

    Take the NAM, how many times has that thing been too warm, too far north and west ?

    Look at most of the models, there’s only been a real drop off in extreme SE Mass and the Cape. Wasn’t the 12z EURO at 7.8 inches at Boston and still hit its immediate suburbs hard.

    Yes, the position of the low doesn’t look ideal, but sometimes a little climatology (cold ocean to help with the boundary layer) and dynamics and heavy precip to help with the rest of the column can overcome. Keep the faith !!!!

    1. You are so right about the NAM. I wouldn’t abandon ship just yet.
      Now if the GFS tracks up the Hudson, then all bets are off!

    2. I like your thinking, Tom. I’ll stick with you if you don’t mind. I was getting discouraged.

  139. To Tom’s point,
    The 3KM NAM dumps snow on Boston at the rate of 2-4 inches per hour from 16Z to 18Z. Still waiting on more data.

  140. NWS with a Blizzard Warning up for Hartford and Tolland County for 16-22″ of snow. No mention of mixing here. I’ll believe that when I see it!

  142. Tom, I agree….there is still going to be a tremendous up front thump of snow (2-4″/hour) for several hours even in areas that changeover. Most areas away from the immediate coastline should not have a problem achieving double digits. But if you are looking for the epic 20″+ totals, need to head west of the CT River Valley. Congrats JJ!!

  143. Towns like Becket, Mass. and Great Barrington will see all snow and a TON of it. I think 25 inches is not out of the question there. Boston will see less than 6 inches much of which will wash away. There will be some snow left over which will turn to ice Wednesday and Wednesday night. As far as this being the last chance for snow this season, no. We’re in a fairly cold pattern. All it takes is for a low to track to the benchmark and we’re likely to get more snow in this pattern.

    2. Words of wisdom. Nevertheless, I’m deeply skeptical about this storm being much of a snow maker in Boston and vicinity. I hope I’m wrong.

      1. Bolton will do well, but so will Sutton, even if there is a bit of mixing.

        Mt. Monadnock will do very well, by the way as will Wachusett.

  149. Scott who used to blog who is now up at Lydon always liked the WRF from what I recall. Really not sure.

    1. This is awesome, thanks again.

      25 miles SE of Boston and everyone has Marshfield at around 6-12. Marshfield …….. I myself believe 5-8.

      Looks like Boston is anywhere from 8-12 to higher.

    2. Thank you for once again putting these together. Have not seen this much consistence among networks in a while….or maybe I just haven’t paid attention. This is terrific

  153. My number for Boston remains 12″. May miss it a little high if the westward trends pan out, but I have doubts. Looking forward to it up here in Plymouth, NH! We should be solidly in the 12-18″ zone, although we may have some downsloping issues.

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