Saturday Forecast

176 Comments

9:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 1-5)
Long-duration storm continues. From my standpoint, the April Fools joke it played on me was putting the sleet/rain area further north and for a longer time that I expected. Officially, sleet still counts in the “snow” column when measuring for statistical purposes, but in a real-world scenario there is a difference, not only because it reacts differently underfoot and under tires, but also piles up much less (amount-wise) and more densely than snow. This will do a number on a forecast if you expected more of it to fall as snow. But now areas that were in this sleet/rain area are transitioning back to snow and areas that rained much of the storm will see the flip to sleet/snow as well during the morning as the storm center intensifies offshore. There will be enough moisture around for a few to several inches of additional snow where it already fell, and up to a few inches of snow where little or none has fallen. Look for generally up to 2 inches of snow south of the Mass Pike and 2-4 additional inches of snow to the north before it tapers off later today and this evening. A break comes Sunday and Monday with slightly milder air and dry weather. The next storm arrives Tuesday but looks like largely a rain event, although just enough cold air may be around at the surface for some mixing with sleet. This progressive system will be gone by Wednesday. The drier weather for Monday and Wednesday should allow the Red Sox to get their first 2 games of the regular season at Fenway Park in.
TODAY: Overcast. Snow southern NH and northern MA, sleet/rain to snow central and east central MA, rain to sleet to snow to the south. Precipitation tapering off west to east during the afternoon. Temperatures 30-40 may fall slightly. Wind NE to N increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH interior, 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH coast, strongest southeastern MA.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with some lingering light snow. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 27-34. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming light variable.
MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain, possibly mixed with sleet. Lows 28-35. Highs 40-48.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-38. Highs 44-51.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 6-10)
Unsettled weather during the April 6-8 period a broad trough of low pressure moves through the region. Drier weather follows. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 11-15)
Lower confidence here but may begin a transition to a different pattern with some unsettled weather early to mid period then milder weather following.

176 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. Part of that area may verify. They are doing total on that map, which includes for some areas snow/sleet that fell and melted/compacted from yesterday, along with what will take place today. I’m not sure I’d put anyone at 12 though. There are several places already with 6+. I’m at 2.0 in Woburn and already into the range from the update. The warm layer above and the expansive sleet/rain area plays havoc and also shows that making uniform forecasts is virtually impossible. It never turns out that way.

      1. Long time, no post. What do you think we will get starting now in Woburn for snow and when does it end? Thanks!

        1. 2-4 on existing sleet/snow which will be the official measurement, but less on pavement, over by evening but flakes may linger for a while later.

  2. Thanks TK !

    You did a great job !!

    All the reminders yesterday to be wary of that mild air intrusion aloft.

    I like that long range if it trends that way. April break week of 17th thru 21st.

  4. I GIVE UP!!!!

    After transitioning to a nice heavy wet snow, it is now mostly RAIN!!!!!)(!@#*&*!@&#*(^!@*#$^(*!@&$&!@*$&(!*@&$*!@(*$&!(*@&$(*!&@(*$&!(*@&$*!&@($*&!(

    1. When this is all done, those amounts are not actually going to end up all that much off. Many of those areas will at least reach the lower end of the range, some, more than that.

  9. I have a favor to ask of everyone. I’m going to put together a list of names and where the person lives.

    Even if you are a regular, would you mind just adding your location to your next post. I can scan through easily and find it. Thanks

    3. This is a great idea. I often thought it would be convenient for now casting to have a town attached to our names.

  10. Moderate snow in Sudbury now. Guessing that we have about 3 inches of snow. Since last night, we’ve had all kinds of precip.

    I dub this “the mixed-up storm”. Hard to predict and precip. is changing hourly from place to place for most places. (some have had all snow, I believe). In any case, it’s a real mess. And possibility of sleet Tues.? I will be driving to Waltham around 11:00 a.m. or so. Hope there’s no ice.

    Happy Spring! Don’t know to make face with tongue sticking out – would if I could!

    1. To me Tuesday looks like 99.9% a rain event with just some potential for sleet mixed in early-on, or at the very end.

  12. Monday afternoon: Dry, cool, but nice.
    Wednesday evening: Dry, chilly, but not bad.
    Thursday afternoon: Less confident, but probably dry even if cloudy.

    The first 3 Red Sox games of the season are at Fenway Monday afternoon, Wednesday evening, and Thursday afternoon. Planned it all along that way, right? 😛

  14. Got 2″ out of that snow burst on top of the 2.5″ lead drop from last night for 4.5″ total of shear misery and bullshit. Looks like it’s going to start breaking up now

      1. I LOVE snowstorms but not a big fan of snow. An inner torment I need some counseling on clearly.

  15. Amy – Quincy, 2 blocks inland from Wollaston Beach. Sometimes we walk to the beach during storms, and those two blocks and the houses and trees make a big difference in the wind.

    It snowed here briefly a while ago, sticking only to the garage roof, grass, and the garden, but the rain resumed and washed it all away.

    3. Slushy 1/2 inch or so, perhaps 3/4 then it rained and took most away and now it’s snowing again and perhaps back up to 1/2 to 3/4 inch.

      Feeling chipper yet?

  22. Looking mighty WINTRY out there. Some Orange echos on radar about to move in. 😀

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.34347826086956523&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=312.6582278481012&centery=292.4050632911393&transx=-87.3417721518988&transy=52.4050632911393&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24851006&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    1. A few wet flakes, but predominately rain.

      I’ll bet if I drove 2-3 miles west, which has 20 or 30 ft of elevation, I’d fine mostly wet snow:

      1. Heyyyyyyyy. Just cause you cannot figure women out, doesn’t mean they are scitzophrenic. I prefer to think of it as unpredictably charming.

  26. No snow yet in Lakeville. It’s been really pouring for about the last hour with snowflakes mixing in from time to time. Temp has dropped to 39. My rain gauge has ceased reporting but I’m in no rush to go out in this mess and figure out why.

  27. It’s like a scene out of The Wizard of Oz when the wicked witch causes the falling snow to put the group to sleep as they approach Emerald City.

    1. Actually the snow was caused by Glinda to wake them up after the wicked witch put them to sleep with Poppies. 😉

      When I was younger I always thought it was just a strong secondary cold front and a band of snow showers behind the first from that caused the tornadic thunderstorms. 😛

      1. You’re right! I’ve seen that movie a thousand times and still can’t recall everything.

          1. No, sorry, arod. I didn’t recall when it snowed either. It was TKs reasoning for the snow I got a kick out of.

  28. Been snowing to beat the band here for 2 plus hours in North Reading and basically zero additional accumulation. The tracks I made at 9 a.m. going out to get the paper not even close to being filled in yet.

  29. Very impressive QPF numbers with this storm. Up to 3″ of rain reported near the Canal. I was outside a bit ago, maybe 10-12″ total snow up here in Plymouth, NH. I’m ready for spring, but at the same time, it’s beautiful outside. Love this kind of snow that sticks to the trees and everything else. The snow never really gets old for me. Plus, this time of year, it doesn’t stick around long anyways.

  31. Drying is entering from the west and southwest. Still at least a couple more hours of precip left. Likely winter’s last gasp in terms of widespread frozen precip.

    1. Thank you, sir

      Joshua..that makes me think. I have you as Boston. Do you want to specify area ??

    1. Thank you 🙂

      I’m closing in on the majority

      Missing Dr stupid, Kane, bellvueben Christie cat996g

      I think longshot is newton?

      I should know some if not all and apologize for forgetting. And an extra apology if you posted your location today and I missed it

  35. TK – Do you see any more frozen precip threats for the rest of this month other than the brief sleet on Tuesday?

    2. 1 or 2 large scale troughs need to get by here through mid month and then I think we turn the pattern.

  37. Last 3 runs of the GFS are showing a big east coast trough around April 15 with a storm riding up the coast and a large swath of snow to the left of its track. As TK said, I wouldn’t assume we are fully in the clear for snow threats until after then.

      2. I think if you go back in the blog until its birth, you will have absolute proof of that. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  38. Gross slop here in Hingham. Doesn’t even measure an inch though so my crystal ball prediction that we don’t get another inch of measurable snow until late fall still stands.

  40. Snow is wimping out here. It’s been snowing for nearly 5 hours and MAYBE accumulated 1 stinken inch. Big Woof!

    1. What’s your thought on Boston old salty . Under achieved or with the sleet acheived

  41. I believe if the high had been in a better position to our north then the storm would have been forced a bit further south, then…maybe “close” to a repeat of 1997. Who knows?

    1. No closed upper low this time. No closed low at this time of year, no big snow. The high being in a different position wouldn’t have made much difference.

  43. 3 p.m. and things winding down in North Reading. Not even going to bother to clean up, as with a high near 50 tomorrow I would expect most if not all will melt. I wold say 3-4 inches here, mostly on grass surfaces.

  44. Seems to be getting brighter here in pembroke still snowing but it’s not doing anything . Looking like it should be over soon . I think I herd sunny & 50s tomorrow

  47. Disappointed with the storm for sure. Would not call it a bust, but it wasn’t a snow maker at the coast, and I thought it had a chance to be. I’ll give TK and many of the TV mets credit on this one: That easterly wind really did do a number to the snow chances. It also caused a rise in temps overnight that I didn’t expect.

    As for the rest of the month, it looks rather dismal quite frankly. It looks likely that we’ll have more of these cold rain storms, which help with the water deficit but otherwise stink. It’s depressingly dreary outside.

  48. After this, one more chance of snow/ winter weather in mid April like people have said above.
    1. way for the nam to be correct.
    2 light snow is falling here in Billerica still I think its low level moisture as radar is not picking it up.
    3. A bit breezy
    4 its going to be an active pattern and if correct conditions warrant ice/snow could get involved. Cool temperatures are still up in Canada. We all know how spring can be in New England
    5. By the way TK what do you think the temperature will be out on the outer cape and how windy, I am doing some geological surveys of the area tomorrow with my class. I am happy that he did not have us go down Friday night lol

    1. Thanks, Mark. Someone said Sterling had 7 and Pepperhill 7.8 But I heard that a while ago.

      I’d say I came in just about at the 3ish as promised if you include sleet/slush/snow which of course should be included

      1. Hi Vicki
        We just moved to Peabody. Not actually the city, but just off route 1 at the “jughandle.”

  57. It seems to me that, although we reached what was predicted, this is the third all day snow where no shoveling was needed. As special as the two foot-ish we had

  60. Does anyone on here have any experiences with Marine science, Marine Biology, Oceanography or environmental science Grad programs? I have started my search for other schools as UMB is having some massive money issues.

  62. Vicki, I apologize for not responding sooner. I am indeed a resident of beantown. Lived in Nahant, Needham, Milton, Brookline, the UK and the Netherlands before `settling’ in Boston’s Back Bay. Will this be my final destination? Doubt it. I may retire in Quebec City where I’ll be guaranteed both good food and cold, snowy winters.

  63. Fabulous skiing at Sunapee today. Vicki I could not find Hank 🙂
    Loads of snow– 12-18″ of thick powder
    Killington tomorrow.
    Roads were good in NH in the am.

    1. i am so jealous, Hope you are having a good time, probably some of the best skiing you will see in april for a while .

        1. most places will close mid april even if they have good snow. Big areas like stowe/ sunday river etc try to compete to stay open as late as possible even if that means only one trail. I think someone makes it well into mid may lol

    2. So glad it was great skiing. Thank you for looking. My guess he was there at some point. Hoping you connect at some point

  64. Here are the 7 day forecasts from around the dial:

    http://i.imgur.com/jnNKgX3.jpg

    A few forecasters seem to be signaling that this was likely the last storm involving snow that we will see this season. As you will see from the above a few are painting a rather rosy picture with WBTS/NECN tossing in a few 60 degree days in their 10 day forecast.

    1. Nice. Thank you. Something better happen soon. The past two nights, if I could have found a dry seat, I would have been deck sitting. I’m still giving it serious consideration tonight

  65. Not sure if this was posted, but Boston average temperature in March was colder than December, January and February. 1st time in recorded history that has occurred.

      1. Thanks, Mel. Still a work in progress but getting there

        What amazes me is the size of the whw family….and we still have many to go

      1. Except what they are doing to Cushing square. This person most thinks is liberal is anything but in many cases

          1. I love it. Mine also from age of 1 month. Needs redoing but in the style that it was. I still remember the Cushing sq officer…Eddie Marsh…who would greet me with a hug

  68. Thanks Vicki! I’m in Westford.

    Looks like my gut and my magic 8 ball went down in flames today and TK (as per norm) was spot on with his measured, scientific analysis. Unfortunately my gut and my magic 8 ball also feel strongly that today’s snow is it for the season so – no doubt – we will get hit with some sort of historic snowstorm on 4/15 – sigh. That should sure make my job interesting too! (I’m an estate tax attorney so although not as bad as for accounting there are still some deadlines around tax season.). But it’s never snowed in June, right?

    1. Ahhhhh but it has snowed…a trace …in June. Although June is a remarkably special month 🙂

      My internal weather station clearly crossed its signals also, so you are not alone.

  69. 3.3 total snow/sleet in my part of Woburn. 2.05 melted.

    Logan’s 1.6 was in the expected range (as of my final final FINAL update – which was about the same as the first one after a few adjustments in between hahaha). This should put to rest, for the last time (again) about whether or not April can produce accumulating frozen precipitation in Boston (Logan).

    A couple respite days today and Monday, then 2 solid rain events (Tuesday, late Thursday). Big trough hangs around end of next week with rain/snow showers.

    I have ideas what may happen after that but not with great confidence and will touch upon those ideas again in the blog update in a few hours from the time I post this comment.

    Good night / good morning!

    1. As you can readily see on those, there is colder air lurking in Northern New England.
      Therefore we know with virtual certainty that the colder air will seep southward
      and cut off the warmth at the pass. We KNOW that will happen. These temperatures
      are pure fantasy.

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