Friday Forecast

90 Comments

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)
Low pressure tracks west of New England today and tonight sending wet weather into the region, some of it in the form of heavy downpours. Then for the weekend a large upper level low pressure area will swirl over the Northeast with clouds dominant, occasional but not continuous wet weather, but fairly mild air. The upper low will continue to impact the region early next week though it will be cooler.
TODAY: Overcast. Spotty light rain through midday. Widespread rain, some heavy, and a slight chance of thunderstorms, pushing southwest to northeast across the region this afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH with higher gusts especially late in the day.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms early, then scattered showers, though more numerous showers/downpours possible over far southeastern MA. Temperatures steady or rising slightly. Wind SE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to S.
SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with episodes of showers, heaviest over southeastern MA. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon with a slight chance of showers through mid afternoon then a better chance of showers again late day. Highs 62-69. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers through early afternoon then increasing chance of showers later in the day. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers. Lows 46-52. Highs 53-60.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)
Upper level low pressure will continue to spin across the region for pretty much the entire period but with cooler than normal temperatures and a daily threat of showers, but may relax its grip toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)
Still a low confidence forecast here, but the departure of one upper low may be followed by the arrival of another with more unsettled weather being dominant.

90 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. What a joyous forecast. Must be painful to write that forecast for the next two weeks 🙂 it would be for me to do so.

    Thanks TK.

    1. Yes sir. It is the only time of year I hate!

      Yesterday was really nice, but does not make up for what is about to come.

  6. Thank you TK and thanks for continuing the misery: 😀 😀 😀

    DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)
    Still a low confidence forecast here, but the departure of one upper low may be followed by the arrival of another with more unsettled weather being dominant.

    STINKO DE MAYO, indeed!!!

    1. That showed up a couple days ago as being a possibility. I put my head in the sand and ignored it.
      It may not rain all the time over the next 2 weeks. But 10 am highs, some destructive sun, highs in the low to mid 50’s with sheet drizzle and general shyte, yea, no thanks.
      You just knew a -NAO would come in here and foul (I’d use another F word but this is a family blog) up the whole first half of May.
      Little league baseball so for this year has been one big mess too.

  7. Wall of rain heading this way.

    https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

    Closer view

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=24899841&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    Welcome to SPRING in New England

    This should put the finishing touches on the drought.

  8. For those that like to add cream to their coffee, have you ever seen what the top of the coffee looks like for a few seconds after you add the cream and before you stir the coffee to mix it up ….. The cream doesn’t mix in equally, it mixes in with all these vortices spinning around, some areas are lighter, some areas are darker …

    So, right now, as we approach the summer solstice and we really tilt into the sun, there is a tremendous amount of heat being added unevenly into an atmosphere that is still fairly cold from the cold season. Similar to the coffee example above, the added heat doesn’t get blended in equally, it mixes in unevenly and you get these vortices spinning around of leftover cold pockets in the atmosphere. The spin of the earth then helps cause them to rotate.

    The cut off lows and blockiness are a necessary balancing act in the atmosphere’s transition from cold to warm. The cutoffs to me are proof that the atmosphere, as a whole, is trying to warm quickly.

    Well, this is my visual, hopefully, its somewhat correct. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I LOVE that visual. Thanks, Tom. Hope you don’t mind if I pass it on to a few friends and the kids.

    2. Yes, I have seen that before.
      When I worked as a Northeaster coop student at Air Force Cambridge Research labs, one of the Senior Meteorlogists, Michael Kraus, showed this phenomenon
      to me and explained it to me. You are not alone.

      I tried to find some info on him. I found this, which shows part of a paper
      he wrote on the Brookline Tornado of 1972:

      http://imgur.com/a/Kj6cN

      and this as part of a history of Weather radar

      http://imgur.com/a/ad9Qq

      1. re: that radar image in the first link…
        I actually operated that very radar depicted in that image.
        Not for that image, but a few years earlier while I was there, I did.

  9. Lots of special marine warnings along the coast, from New Jersey southward.

    That should be interesting when those heavier showers come into southern New England.

  12. re: Gypsy moth caterpillars.

    I have heard conflicting reports on this being a bad year vs not so bad. I can tell you my crab apple tree is in full bloom for the first time since we moved into our house 4 years ago. The past 2 years it was completely destroyed before it was even able to show a single flower. Upon closer inspection or the trunk and lower branches, I can see the many egg clusters but most appear dead and not hatching caterpillars. I can only conclude the wet weather this spring has increased the fungus that is supposed to interfere with the hatching process. I am very pleased to say the least.

    1. You can smash the eggs, they are invasive, you are encouraged to do so. My flowering trees in the front are also filled with flowers, I saw eggs as well about a week ago and took them and smashed them. The mix of cooler temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation has a part of it. Also birds have increased their predation of them.

    2. Ace we are literally covered with tiny little gypsy moth caterpillars. They are everyone. People – kids especially – are already getting rashes from them. But we are on top of the RI border and they are coming up from RI.

      1. Ewwww, well maybe you are in an area that missed out on some wet weather recently? Those things are so gross

        1. No, I think we have had the weather. I’m a difficult one to judge since I like the weather in general so won’t notice more rain than not. Brian??

          I thought the tree damage in years past (before this year and north of here) was from winter moths. We had severe leaf damage in Framingham right until the time we moved but it was winter moths. It is my understanding the gypsy moths didn’t begin to move north even in RI until last year.

          But then you are just about due east of me so fairly far toward the southern part of MA.

          1. Yea the winter moths were bad here up till last year when the gypsy moths took over. No sign of winter moths this year (yet), just the few egg nests of gypsy moths ive seen on the trees.

            1. No winter months here either. I hope you don’t get them. I can’t believe that the rashes have started already. My oldest had a terrible time in 1981. At that time she was the only child so I have no idea how the others will react. I know her youngest already has a rash in a couple of spots as do a few of her adult neighbors.

              Lovely creatures 🙁

  13. Thanks TK. Flash flood warnings all around the NYC area right now. We’ll see how much of that translates into southeast MA later today. Probably a solid 1-2″ of rain on the way for many, with a few higher totals possible.

  14. Must be some places around here with flood warnings also. There is one in Framingham.

    1. Getting Charlie holed at the moment, brightening of the sky even. Looking at the radar i dont see where the 2-3″ of rain NWS is predicting will come from. Heavy rains for a time? Yes. Flooding rains? Not so sure. I feel like these events always underachieve. We shall see!

      1. If that slug off of NJ holds together when it gets up here,
        then 2-3 inches could easily happen. My guess, it will come all right, but not as strong as what is down there. We shall see.

  16. Perhaps TK could comment, but looking at the 12z models… it seems like we’re not far off from having something very interesting happen Sunday night into Monday. Obviously we’ve got this big trough nearby. Looks like a weak northern stream system will rotate rapidly around the base the next couple days, and start to redevelop off the coast. Meanwhile, cold air- well below freezing at 850, although not near the surface- will be pouring in from the northwest behind the slowly departing surface low affecting us today. It’s the kind of setup where, if it plays out just right, you can get snow in our region in May, at least in interior SNE and certainly high terrain in central/northern New England. Doesn’t look like it comes together cleanly enough this time, but maybe there’ll be some flakes up north early next week.

    1. As I recall TK has been mentioning watching the time period around the 8th.

      Very interesting and thank you WxWeather

    2. It may be a close call but right now I feel like anything frozen falling from the sky would be in the mountains. But that’s what it looked like several days prior to 5-18-2002 as well. We’ll keep an eye on it.

  20. Up to 0.2 inch so far.

    Hmmm 2-3 inches??? an inch an hour of rain???

    Me thinks a certain outlet exaggerates, no?

      1. Like winter storms, initially, the heaviest precip seems to come up to Boston but go to the west, east, up, and around before filling in.

  23. Ahead of that finger of heavy showers, there are individual showers quickly blossoming. This may evolve into a very heavy shield of rain in eastern mass.

    1. Well then I’d best head to St Marks and get some of that fish and chips they are offering tonight before the rain shuts them down 😉

    1. HUH? I don’t know of a movie by that name, unless you are naming the video.

      I honestly thought you meant Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid as that
      song was played during the movie. 😀

  26. It’s pouring buckets here at the office as I wind down and get ready to leave. 😀

    2. The overall motion is northeast. There are elements moving a little more to the north. That is just a reflection of precipitation at different heights, where the winds are a little different.

  31. .97

    When I went out to get fish fry, I noticed the ponds, lakes and areas where water has been quite low since we moved in are really high.

  32. Flash Flood Warning here till 7:45.
    Already 1.00 in the rain gauge.

    Lightning strike in Acushnet.

  33. Surprisingly, I am not going with the 2 horse tomorrow…thundersnow. Right now I’m saying 2,5,15. Win place show. 5 is Always Dreaming and that fits me even better than thunder snow.

    2. I am going with 2. 😉 I’ll come out with my official order in a while…

      1. I’m not official yet but close. I need to research a bit more.

        Is rain finished here?

        1. Your boys from Ireland. Would be interesting. I like 18. I know he is a thoroughbred but is the color of daughters Swedish warmblood. And we all know 18 is a great number 🙂

  35. 0.79 inch here with a bit more to come this evening. Far cry from 2-3 inches. 😀

    1. Spot shower to me does not equal rain all week

      In the event we have a lot of rain, I have figured a solution to the hole in our yard that is to be a patio. It can be a natural swimming pool.

  37. 0.82 yesterday till midnight and 0.04 overnight for a whopping
    0.86 inch. Devastating rainfall amount I must say. 😀 Probably much more
    down towards the cape where it is still pouring. We shall see how much, if any, falls
    today.

    Temp up to 61 here in JP. At least temperaturewise it does not have that nasty feel
    to the air.

    1. Raining here in Halifax. I have a really nice job in Plymouth today I think I’m going to try & hit mid morning if the weather allows. I’ll hit a job in duxbury & scituate first than get rid of construction debris from the winter that’s been sitting in the yard. Not one rainout last year.

  38. Woken up by a downpour at 5 this morning.
    Trying to look at the positives we don’t have to contend with any heat and humidity with this pattern and the pollen counts are down.

Comments are closed.