8:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)
Today, a trough still is over the area, and the lower levels still have a fair amount of moisture in them, so as suspected for the last several days, clouds are going to be dominant and the day is not without a shower threat, but rain is neither imminent nor a certain enough occurrence as of the writing of this update (8AM) to cancel outdoor plans, unless you much prefer more sunshine and warmer air. For that, you’ll need to wait until tomorrow, when high pressure to the southwest noses its way into New England and the trough aloft has departed sufficiently to allow a warmer and less cloud-filled day. As we get into the early to mid part of next week the weather pattern will undergo the first part of a transition in which a hot ridge of high pressure establishes itself in the western US. What tries to be a passing trough through the northeastern US will shear apart with a piece moving along to the east and the other part dropping to the south and cutting off from the flow over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley when it will then start to drift slowly to the east. This, along with a weak surface high trying to stay established off the East Coast means Monday-Wednesday turn somewhat more humid and run the risk of a few showers and thunderstorms at times – not really a fully unsettled pattern, not a perfectly dry pattern, not a cool pattern, not a hot pattern, not crisp and not excessively muggy, kind of in between it all.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight risk of isolated showers morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers afternoon. Highs 68-78, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind light S.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-86, coolest South Coast. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s along the coast and the upper 80s to lower 90s interior areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)
The large scale pattern is expected to feature a ridge of high pressure over the western US and a weak to moderate northwesterly flow over the northeastern US. This pattern is typically seasonably warm with brief alternating modified heat and modified cooler shots, timing of these not really doable beyond a few days. This pattern also produces opportunities for showers/thunderstorms especially with air mass changes. Activity may be enhanced early in the period (July 20-21) due to the remains of the Ohio Valley trough sliding eastward through the area.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)
The late days of July should feature a somewhat similar pattern, but I believe that somewhere as early as the final days of July we may see a flatting of the flow and an eastward movement of the top of the heat dome from the west that could bring some higher heat this way. Also need to start watching for a possible building high pressure area off the East Coast, though that may occur beyond this period. The overall resultant weather here will be warm to hot with mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at times.