Tuesday Forecast

76 Comments

9:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)
Humidity and July warmth dominates during the next few days. A front pushing through may bring somewhat drier air by Friday and Saturday.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly late day and evening. Humid. Highs 77-86, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Low clouds near the coast. Partly cloudy interior. Humid. Lows 62-68. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-85 along the coast to 86-92 interior areas.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the lower to middle 80s South Coast, middle 80s to lower 90s elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)
A few episodes of showers July 23-24 with a front nearby. Briefly cooler as well. Warmer with isolated showers and thunderstorms thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28-AUGUST 1)
Trending hotter. Risk of a few showers and thunderstorms at times.

76 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK.
    JPDave I saw your Red Sox comments on the previous blog. They better go after a bat at the trade deadline.
    GFS for what’s worth been aggressive for past few runs with some of the severe parameters for Sunday.

  6. As we approach the Noon hour, convection is increasing.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=25006533&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    I don’t believe it is close enough to interact with any sea breeze front, but wondering
    what will happen as it does? We are past mid-July and the water is probably warm
    enough such that the sea breeze front could be the focus of convection and/or
    could enhance convection already approaching.

    Logan is at 79 with SE sea breeze at only 8 mph and DP 70.
    I don’t imagine a sea breeze that light would contribute anything at all.
    It could increase as the convection gets closer. Will keep an eye on it.

  9. Thanks TK !

    Some scattered cumulus overhead and to our west.

    Oppressive humidity but a cooling seabreeze.

  11. We’re having a light shower right now in Sudbury. Looks like showers are starting to trend south – like the link JP Dave showed awhile ago.

    And it’s sticky out! At least it’s not 90 degrees out. But that’s coming soon.

  12. Ditto Tom’s comment. Sea breeze is consistently in mid teens. Will see if it breaks up whatever is headed this way.

  13. Question : 3 disturbances, rather weak, but nonetheless, 3 disturbances in the central tropical Atlantic have already briefly rotated enough to be classified as a depression or weak tropical storm. This in an area that is usually not climatologically favorable for development in June and July.

    So, is this not a big deal or should it be considered a red flag for signs of an increased chance of an intense Cape Verde system later in the season?

  14. Just got back to the office. Poured at home for a while. Rained for about 1/2 or so.

    0.04 inch at home. 😀

    We shall see what, if anything, develops later.

    Almost looks like a line is trying to form out by Springfield.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=25006652&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  15. Storm to north..well clouds. Looks as if cell tour west went poof. Was this due to sea breeze or breaking off from main part of system.

    1. Seabreeze, I believe. As the cumulus are coming to the coastline, they are falling apart so far down here. Interestingly, that didn’t happen up in Boston.

      1. I thought the same, Tom. It was why I wondered if something else was in play beside sea breeze.

  16. The thunderstorm that passed Boston a bit ago has a cell or 2 developing on its southern edge, closer to Scituate/marshfield town line.

  17. Bright and sunny here, cooking the atmosphere for the next round?

    DP 72 at Logan, but it is 75 with ESE sea breeze.

    My Acurite is reading 87, but it is a couple of degrees too high as it is in the sun, even though it has a fan.

  18. I enjoy following Barrow, AK weather. I’ve followed arctic sea ice melt closely the last many summers.

    Here’s how July is going in Barrow. (71 N latitude so 4.5 degrees north of The arctic circle)

    4 of the past 6 days have seen a high temp of 60F or higher. The monthly temp departure is +5.1F for the month.

    Here’s the best one though ….. The current dewpoint is 57F. …… 57F …… Imagine that warmth and humidity (relatively speaking) which is being advected into the Arctic Ocean, north of the arctic circle.

  19. 81 with sea breeze at Logan. dp 72
    I don’t think that will knock down convection and it may enhance it. We shall see.

  21. Anything going on? I see a bunch of helicopters hovering over the City in the Neighborhood of the Kenmore Square area. Difficult to pin down exactly, but
    somewhere towards that area.

    1. News helicopters or military? There’s been a ton of military activity/training in nearby cities and towns in eastern MA this week.

        1. Perhaps over the Brigham hospital area. I checked from another window and I can only see 2 helicopters?
          But something is up.

  25. Reminder: Tomorrow at 12z, the GFS upgrade is becoming operational. Data from the current operational GFS will no longer be available, and the “parallel” GFS will become the operational version. As TK has mentioned, the overall quality of the new model will likely be very similar to or even slightly worse than the current version based on preliminary tests. I have noticed that if nothing else this version doesn’t spin up as many erroneous long range hurricanes, although in general it’s performance in the tropics is likely to be worse than the current version.

  26. Red Sox gave a delayed start tonight due to rain. I’m 3 maybe 2.5 miles from ball park. Not a drop at my house.

  27. MAY have something to watch tomorrow night according to NWS Taunton
    Of course there is model disagreement with this potential.
    While the potential risk is increasing, still a lot of model guidance spread. The GFS appears to be the outlier with no precip overnight. The NAM pushes a cluster/MCS across the southern half of the region which lines up with the RPM. THE UKMET and EC have kept the cluster near and North of the Pike. So even through there is still a spread on location the risk is still there.

    1. Nice breeze off of the river but I can feel that is it warmer today and would be quite hot without it.

  29. Tom I think your right about the disturbance. Looking at the discussion from Taunton any slight shift in track will make a difference between which areas get nothing while other areas could have some potent thunderstorms tomorrow night.
    Looking at 6z NAM bulls eye of instability southern CT.

    1. From what I can recall, MCS, when they affect New England tend to travel across western and southwestern areas more often than traveling near or north of the mass pike.

  30. Some of the short ranges models the NAM and RPM are showing what you are saying. I am waiting to see what the 12z NAM shows. Late in the winter the NAM in the 24 -30 hour range did a pretty good job. Lets see what happens here.

  31. 12z NAM keeps the greatest instability on track from Upstate NY towards NYC area Long Island for tomorrow night.

  33. Going to make a full new post after 3. I can devote the time to it then but not before. Tied up with a few things. Nothing bad!

  34. We were just trying to determine if we should go for a walk at lunch. I pulled up my weather station at home. 82 with a dew point of 78. We quickly decided on “no way in hell”.

  35. These dewpoints / humidity today are both impressive and oppressive. It’s one of those days when you walk into A/C and it initially feels like you’ve entered a refrigerator.

    1. I am enjoying phenomenal New England weather at the shore this week. I would not be surprised if it were close to 93 at home. Should have been more specific as to my location. Most know I am here but not all 🙂

  40. Nice summer weather 🙂 partly sunny a light sea breeze temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s

  41. I see 91 at the airport with dp 66. Ahh refreshing compared to the 72 of yesterday.
    😀 😀 😀 😀

    Seriously, still feels the same. YUCK!

    1. Interesting…. dp 71 at my house 5-6 miles from Logan.
      I see 72 dp at Norwood, yet down to low 60s and I even saw some 59s N&W
      of the city. There is definitely slightly drier air moving in.

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