4:39PM
DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)
Here is your outlook for Labor Day Weekend and one-day either side. A cool and gusty northwest wind has made today feel a bit like later September instead of the first day of the month and with only some high thin clouds around tonight as the wind drops off it will be quite cool. High pressure hangs on for dry weather Saturday though clouds will start to filter the sun in advance of the remains of Harvey, which will track across the northeastern US on Sunday bringing unsettled weather to the area. The timing is critical for many with outdoor plans, and at the moment I believe the steadiest rain will be in the morning with isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon. The wildcard is how much if any sun, and that will be determined by the low center and its track. The further southeast the track, the cloudier and potentially wetter the area is, and the further north with the track would allow the wind to shift more to the west behind the initial burst of rain and some breaking clouds and sun would be possible, though not without a shower threat. Updates to come on this. By Monday and Tuesday, a much warmer air mass will be in place.
LATE AFTERNOON: Sun and high clouds. Temperatures in the 60s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear – few high clouds. Lows 38-45 interior valleys, 46-52 elsewhere. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Sunshine filtered to dimmed by high clouds. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind light variable becoming SE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Chance of rain before dawn. Lows 55-62. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast with a period of rain morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with isolated to scattered showers afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-64. Wind light W.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-83, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)
The weather pattern is expected to feature a ridge of high pressure off the Atlantic Coast and a trough of low pressure over the east central US with humid and mild to warm weather with episodes of showers the result in this area. We will also be watching the progress of Hurricane Irma.
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
No major changes from the 6-10 period expected at this time. A lot of fine tuning to come.
thank you TK
wow, 1st again. 😀
Irma now a CAT 3 again with top winds at 120 mph and pressure at 964 mb.
from NHC
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the
Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip
currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify
where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and
listen to any advice given by local officials.
2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.
Thank you.
Thanks TK!
with slight variations in the track, the GFS has been remarkably consistent with Irma.
Here is the latest 18Z run with a landfall around NYC.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090118/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_37.png
947 mb is still a lower end CAT 4 Hurricane.
Camping and it’s cold 🙂
Thanks for posting model projections on Irma so I can keep up to date !!
Where camping? Brewster?
Myles Standish in Carver.
Don’t be surprised if Irma weakens back to CAT 2 before tonight’s over.
Got it. But give it 2 days, then watch out.
Up in Vt gonna be cool tonight
Some frozen precip and high winds in Washington. I fished several Labor Day weekends in upstate ME when temp was freezing or below. It was awesome
Irma destroys the Delmarva as a 925 mb Cat 4 hurricane next Sunday AM on the 0z GFS. Still 944 mb as it tracks NW over Philadelphia, then eventually Rochester, NY and into eastern Ontario.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090200&fh=204
Then it has another powerful hurricane passing just east of cape cod at hour 372. LOL.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090200&fh=372
0z Euro has it at similar strength, 932mb, making landfall in the middle of South Carolina. Euro is slower with the storm making landfall Monday night, about 36 hours later than the GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2017090200&fh=240
0z CMC has it off the coast of NC on Monday night 9/11 heading NNE towards or just east of Cape Cod.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090200&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=338
Irma is definitely a watcher and getting more threatening by the day.
I am getting more and more of a sense that it hits somewhere in or near the Carolina’s, but it is still a long way off. We are not out of the woods by any stretch.
It is beginning to look like the Gulf is out of play at least.
latest positions of Irma from NHC:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 19.0N 41.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 18.8N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 18.3N 46.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.7N 48.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 17.1N 50.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 17.0N 54.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 18.4N 59.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 21.0N 64.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
Both EURO and GFS showing a land falling major hurricane just in different locations. The 6z GFS makes a landfall in NJ as 945 mb storm a little further north than 0z run which had a landfall near Delmarva Peninsula. EURO crushes South Carolina.
GFS solution not worth looking at other than amusement. Go back and look at all of its scenarios just in the last 24 hours. You can speculate by random guessing and have the same result.
New post! No big changes.