Sunday Forecast

164 Comments

8:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
The remains of Harvey, which have been advertised for days, come through today with areas of showers. Where, when, and how much it rains will vary, with one batch already having largely come through and moved offshore. There will be a few other areas of showers to go through. By tonight, it clears out, and then we’re set up for 2 summery-feeling days Labor Day Monday and again Tuesday. When we get to midweek, humidity from the south meeting slow-moving cold front from the west spells episodes of showers/thunderstorms and some possible heavy rain. Though we’ll be monitoring the progress of Hurricane Irma, if it becomes a threat to the East Coast it will not be in the next 5 days.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodic showers, a few of which may be heavy. Highs 62-70. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH becoming variable late.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A possible shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 57-62. Wind light W.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 78-83 Cape Cod, 84-89 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
Pattern is likely to continue rather humid with a southerly flow overall. Timing of any shower episodes is not determinable yet. We’ll also have to watch Irma’s potential impact on the East Coast by later in the period, depending on track.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
Like the period before, we’ll have to watch for the potential direct or more likely indirect impact of Irma early in the period, but much has to be determined before we can do this.

164 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Rainy in Carver.

    At DD, getting some Wifi …… My brother in law and family live in Wilmington, NC.

  3. Thank you, TK.

    Rainy in Sutton. A cool, finer mist right now. I know this is not a popular view, especially since people have holiday weekend plans, but there is something about a cool, rainy Sunday that I truly enjoy.

    1. I do too, but so far up here we’ve had very little rain.

      Outdoor plans today…
      Cookout in NH and fireworks at Hampton Beach.

  4. Thanks TK.

    We’re on the boat on a mooring in Vineyard Haven inside the breakwater, right next to the ferry terminal. It’s been raining hard for a few hours, and the wind is howling at 25+ out of the NE. We’re not quite protected from the fetch of the wind, and are bouncing around. The ferries seem to be running normally.

    Looking forward to the rain tapering off…

    1. The Seastreak fast ferry just arrived here in Vineyard Haven suggesting Oak Bluffs ferry terminal is not being used. It would be very exposed…

        1. Never heard of them but did enjoy, JPD. Am working on a more than tedious job so my desk chair and I needed to dance a bit !!

  6. Good morning…

    0.17″ in drizzle and showers…

    I think someone answered this question for me once, but I do not know or remember the answer.

    What is the difference between operational weather models, ensemble models, spaghetti models? Do all of the lines on the ensemble/spaghetti model represent a different forecast model? If so, then there are many computer programs that forecast weather, just not well-known ones such as GFS, European, etc????

    1. Well, since no one has yet to answer, let me take a crack at it.

      Operational are the models that sometimes function…other times – not so much. Ensemble model are the ones with the fascinating color schemes. Spaghetti originated in Italy.

      How’d I do 😉

      This BTW is how I amuse myself when I need to step away from the aforementioned tedious work 🙂

  14. Good news 12z EURO like yesterday’s 12z EURO is a miss for U.S. but its close to coast from Florida to the Carolinas.

  15. If anything, the spread of possible outcomes for Irma has increased today. Yesterday, I was starting to think a Gulf of Mexico track was coming off the table. With what I’m seeing today, the Gulf remains very much in play. A US miss still possible as well. Will not be using the term “out to sea”, as Irma is increasingly likely to be a devastating hurricane to the Bahamas. Several small northeast Caribbean islands could also see a direct hit, and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will be right under the gun if the track shifts south and west any more. For us, I actually think a New England hit is probably the least likely final outcome at this time. But much can and will continue to change.

    1. The Euro has been on again off again for East Coast. It first signaled
      a recurvation 12Z yesterday, then gone at 0Z last night and now back again.
      I wonder if the Euro is onto something here.

      BTW, a little birdy told me that TK is leaning towards NO US landfall.
      Not sure where I heard that, but I’m pretty sure that is the case. 😀 😀 😀

      1. Much too early to say for sure. However, personally, I would actually lean towards a US landfall, most likely peninsular Florida or the Carolinas. I can also see a scenario where it sneaks through the Florida straits and into the Gulf. The end of that Euro run looks bogus to me. Bomb cyclone right off Nova Scotia opens up enough of a weakness to pull Irma away. That looks unrealistic, and is the same problem the Euro has with over-deepening our snowstorms in winter. I would bet on that cyclone developing much further east (CMC) or not really developing at all (GFS). A recurve away from the US is certainly still possible, but I don’t buy it right now.

        2. I took all that into account.

          My early feeling is based on anticipated model errors, with the first correction to be made by the ECMWF.

  17. Well, this from the Hurrican model HMON.

    Here is a loop. Down below you can click to play it. Play it on slow.

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hmontc2.cgi?time=2017090312-irma11l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

    At the end it is 886 mb with winds at 142 knots or about 163 mph!!!

    Here is another view

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2017090312/hmon_mslp_wind_11L_43.png

    Now that is a WHOPPER!! for sure.

    We shall see, but these “What Ifs” scare the bleepity bleep out of me!!!!!

  18. The 12z Euro ensembles confirm by suspicion of the op run. Most ensembles are west, into the Southeast or even Gulf via the Florida straits. Doesn’t mean the op run is “wrong”, but a less likely scenario to me.

  23. .46 rain in Sutton. Granddaughter who now has my old weather station says .24 in uxbridge.

    Now if I can find time a place to put new weather station I’ll be happy

    1. And wow just started pouring here. Grand said it had started in uxbridge a few minutes ago when we were on the phone

  24. Reconnaissance data indicates Irma is stronger than estimated at least in a central pressure sense. NHC had been estimating 969mb. She’s actually right around 960mb. Winds look pretty close to the listed 115mph. Regardless, she already has plenty of power.

      1. I see much more of a sharp right turn down around Florida.

        Do you still envision it staying off shore? 😀

        1. The sharp right is far more likely than the sharp left it takes after landfall, which I don’t agree with either.

          And the answer is .. yes!

          1. Oh, Ok i saw that crazy left well inland. I thought you meant some sort of sharp left coming up the coast. 😀 😀 😀

              1. They key lies in that trough and possibly one behind it. Timing and amplitude are important. Ultimately, I’m not going to be surprised if Irma’s center never makes landfall in the US.

  31. The weather models are disagreeing on where to put the high pressure. Is it more West (European) or GFS further East. I just do not see the storm going into the land like that, I could be dead wrong, but I just do not see it.

    1. Great depiction Vicki! Awesome sky tonight for sure. Low clouds speeding by with the Moon peaking through in the background. My youngest said Daddy the Moon is really moving tonight 🙂

      1. If Sale can’t get his stuff together, they’re toast in the playoffs.
        Astros/Dodgers series if I had to put money on it right now. Best teams in both leagues. Doesn’t mean it can’t change obviously. Red Sox bats have been quiet. They gonna have to get that going if they’re gong to go too far.

        1. I was talking about the season as a whole. But I stand by what I say about scoring runs for the guy. Maybe not tonight, but they haven’t done it often enough when he pitches.

  36. Two tough losses come to mind Sale has had against the Yankees. One he was just out pitched by Tanaka as Tanaka threw a gem on April 27th. The other one that marathon 16 inning game on July 15th Kimbrel couldn’t get the save as Matt Holiday hit the game tying home run in the 9th inning that game.

    1. He has a hard time against Cleveland too. His ERA is around 2.6. Against Cleveland it’s 14.6.
      For his career gets got almost a 5 ERA against Cleveland. He’s got to figure that out before the payoffs .

  37. The Red Sox suck! We have the WORST team in baseball! I’m never watching a game again! Waaaaaah! 😉

      2. I’m sure our stuff gets annoying to sometimes, but damn, nobody said that. It’s just observational. I guess you don’t like to listen to sports radio either. 🙂

        1. I used to love it in the 1990s. I had it on at the weather office all the time.

          Since around 2000… nah.

      1. Hockey’s not that far behind…not that I expect a championship quality Bruins team, but I still love them no matter what. 😀

  39. And I’m sure the GFS is about to come with another completely ridiculous solution. It makes a good substitute for the Sunday comics!

  40. 0Z GFS hAs Irma MUCH farther South than previous runs, almost hugging the North
    coast of Cuba. I wonder if this run tracks it into the Gulf?

  41. If it keeps up, the GFS will make Irma the first hurricane to hit Sioux City, Iowa.

    Horrendous model. Well, at least we had warning about that.

  42. Good morning. I sure as hell don’t know what Irma is going to do. I don’t the models
    do Either. We shall see. Hopefully as the week unfolds we’ll get a clearer picture.

  43. NHC Track

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/090051_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    6Z Gfs

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_29.png

    0Z CMC

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017090400/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_25.png

    0Z Euro

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090400/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_8.png

    http://imgur.com/a/JER4Y

    2. Am I correct that the vast majority are now looking at the tip of FL which of course could bring it south of the tip and into the gulf….or over the keys??

      I do know it is far far far too early. Just a curious observation. Sure seems, as many here have said, nothing is off the table with fickle irma.

      1. I think the gulf still seems unlikely but still a number of days out so I don’t think anything is off the table.

  46. If anyone here cares, the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge are expecting child #3! 🙂

    This also means that Prince William moves even further down the Royal food chain. 😉

      1. Well, assuming your wife reads this blog, she knows now. 😉

        I never understood the Royals either. I guess the Kennedy family were once considered “royalty” back in the day on this side of the pond (Atlantic).

        I have enjoyed watching the recent TV specials on Lady Diana…a true gem IMO…not to mention a great tragedy for all.

    1. Than track is ripe for a Florida hit or perhaps even the Gulf.
      To come up the coast, it would have to turn rather sharply.

      We shall see.

      1. Also they are doing extra 6 hour interval upper air soundings in the central plains today and sampling the environment around Irma this afternoon to include in ththe 00z model runs tonight.

  51. Irma is a real wrecking ball out there. Just not sure who’s gonna take the biggest hit. Areas in that NHC cone best be prepared for a major hurricane impact though… that will include south Florida by tonight.

    I’ve made my yearly migration to Plymouth, NH, which is where I’ll be reporting from for the most part up until the holidays 🙂

    1. Best wishes on your senior year, Wx!!!

      It is my understanding that the keys need at minimum of three days to evacuate. I’m thinking they are closing in on that time period.

      1. Thanks Vicki! It is definitely possible that an evacuation will be required for the Keys. They would be about 5 to 6 days out from an impact at this point.

  54. GFS bass 949 mb storm off the southern coast of NE and the cape at 384 hrs.
    Hahahaha
    I should start boarding up now.

    2. Seems like that is Jose after he does a loop south of Bermuda and comes around to the coast his second time around.

  55. There seems to be a big push of cool, dry air into the Great Lakes and northeast at hour 120 ….. That bodes well for us, I think ……. even if Irma takes a right hand turn up the east coast, I’d think a hurricane would not do too well with that relatively cool, dry air becoming entrained into its circulation.

        1. Yeah. Interested to hear TK’s thoughts when he posts his update now that we have had successive model runs with this newer solution.

          1. I think the models are trustworthy to about 96 hrs.

            It’s at 120 hrs to 168 that more changes are probably to come, when the hurricane is gaining latitude and is more affected by the northern jet stream.

            I am certain there are more changes to come with trof and ridge placement and amplitude.

        1. My pleasure. I just hope people don’t get sick of them.
          A certain somebody who is no longer on the blog said
          I was posting too many and no one gave a shit. 😀 😀 😀

          1. ABSOLUTELY NOT. We are all intelligent enough to know that it is all a learning experience. Any weather enthusiasts is fascinated by all of this. That is why we are here 🙂

            Thank you, JPD!

      1. That’s what the NHC projection looks like. We’ll see. Obviously not buying that right turn up the coast. Not sure I buy that turn either. By Wednesday or Thursday it should be a little clearer if it’s gonna turn. At any rate, it ain’t coming up here with anything left but rain, if that.

        1. I agree that a New England landfall is unlikely, but
          I don’t think the chances are 0. A few ensembles still
          have it coming up here, but clearly the cluster is Florida.

    2. Yup, I was waiting until a tad closer to 5 to look. I keep forgetting that
      the advisories are in ATLANTIC TIME, ie an hour earilier here.

    1. South Florida is becoming increasingly under the gun. No certainties yet, but
      I wouldn’t like it IF I lived in South Florida.

  63. Discussion from the MIAMI NWS office. They’re actually pretty calm, so far.

    The pattern begins to transition on Thursday as a frontal boundary
    associated with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes enters
    the region. To the east, Irma is expected to remain a potent major
    hurricane. The interactions of the frontal boundary and Atlantic
    high pressure will be the steering for Irma. At this point, the
    environment ahead of the storm looks to be supportive for it to
    remain a strong hurricane.

    The chances of South Florida seeing some impacts from Irma later
    this week are increasing. It is still too early to forecast where
    Irma`s path will go. Models will continue to change and we will have
    to watch for emerging trends and what potential impacts could emerge
    with Irma. At this point, the best bet for South Floridians is to
    make a hurricane plan, gather their hurricane kit, and continue to
    monitor the progress of Irma as we head through the week.

    1. Would she impact the east side of FL rather than west IF this were to be outcome? Daughters inlaws are south of Ft Myers

  64. Unfortunately, moon at perigee this coming Wednesday, which will be causing somewhat above normal high tides this coming week.

    Just picking 1 Florida location, high tide is 12:30pm Monday and 1:30 pm Tuesday in St Augustine, Fl

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