Tuesday Forecast

71 Comments

7:04AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
High pressure dominates the weather in southeastern New England for the next couple days, which will be fair and warmer than average. The remains of Irma, in very fragmented form, will pass through the Northeast, at least part of them, Thursday and Friday, and at the same time a cold front will drop down from Canada and cross the region. Cloudiness and a risk of showers will result. Weak high pressure builds in Saturday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 69-76 coast, 77-83 interior. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-53 interior valleys, 54-59 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 69-76 coast, 77-83 interior. Wind light S but coastal sea breezes.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s coast, middle to upper 70s interior.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)
A mainly dry pattern is expected but will continue to keep an eye on Jose off the coast. For now expecting the system to stay out to sea after it completes a loop to the south of Bermuda then tracks north to northeast.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)
A pattern of mainly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures is expected.

71 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  7. In line with Matt’s comment today and WxWatcher’s comment yesterday re turning our attention to those who truly felt the full impact of Irma, I wanted to share an interview with Kenny Chesney who lost his home and has set up a foundation to help the virgin islands. Interesting that his home was built to the most current hurricane standards, including windows that were intended to withstand 200 mph winds, and it is gone.

    http://bobbybones.iheart.com/content/2017-09-11-kenny-chesney-is-raising-money-for-virgin-islands/

  10. Jose’s down to 65kt. Minimal hurricane. Probably go to TS soon. Probably re-strengthen once he makes the turn.
    Over night guidance moved east. 6Z GFS still has it several hundred miles SE of the benchmark Wednesday morning. Maybe some rough surf but that about it if that holds.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017091206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

    Euro says no way Jose (couldn’t resist) exit stage right. Long way to go
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017091200/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

    1. Mark, thank you for your continued links. I’m not sure if you saw my post above, but the interview with Chesney says it all. Just awful for so many down that way.

      1. Vicki, I did see your post above. The fact that his house was destroyed, despite being built to sustain extreme winds, is just more evidence how catastrophic the damage was. We stopped at St Thomas, Tortola, and Jost Van Dyke in the BVI on a cruise a couple summers ago. It was beautiful. Jost is actually the subject of one of Kenny Chesney’s songs (Adios to Jost, ironically). I’m glad we visited when we did because it is no paradise anymore and it is going to take those trees and vegetation years to recover.

        1. Very, very true. I have been a Chesney fan for years but had not thought of Adios to Jost….sadly, ironic.

          I’m also glad you were able to visit. I remember one of the things that upset me the most (for some odd reason) was the complete absence of the Spanish moss in and around Charleston. The thought at the time was it would not come back. And it did 🙂 Mother nature is a power force and I think she gives as much as she takes. But I believe we all need to do our part too.

  12. Thanks for the update TK. I’m curious about a comment you made a while back right before Irma hit some of then Carribean islands. You said those islands are well equipped and built to withstand major hurricanes. Looking at the devastation and loss of life Irma left on them, that was obviously not the case. I’m curious what it was about this particular storm that was diffferent.

    1. We are seeing pictures of the exceptions I also noted. The hardest hit are probably the 2 least equipped, unfortunately.

      I also noted things have fallen off there since the 1990s…not sure why.

      1. Thanks for the response TK. In terms of wind, it seemed to be an exceptional storm too and hit some of these islands head on with the worst of it

      2. Did you have an opportunity to watch the link I posted? I had posted the other day that I was very impressed with the hurricane code in FL that my son in law had described to me for his parents’ new home. Needless to say, I was more than surprised when Kenny Chesney described the code used to build his home in an area that they felt would be better protected than others on the island….and the home is completed gone. Every window manufactured to withstand 200 mph winds blew in.

        Seems we have a long way to go. But wow.

        2. Yes…

          I’m not so sure about the “manufactured to withstand…” stuff though. They test, but nobody can ever re-create the true thing.

    2. There is no place, even in the US, well equipped to handle sustained winds of 180 mph with gusts over 200 mph. This was an exceptional storm. Cat 5’s of that strength are not something you see frequently, even in that part of the Atlantic, and when they do happen, the odds that your particular island or location are going to sustain a direct hit (along with the associated catastrophic damage) are still very low. Just look at the difference in damage from those satellite images on Barbuda vs Antigua a few miles to the south. I would venture that most of the people on those islands have never lived through a storm that was nearly as bad as Irma.

  14. Thanks, TK…
    Biked the length of the Canal and back yesterday after school.
    It was the most gorgeous day of the summer (it’s still summer, right?)

    Not a breeze anywhere from the Buzzards Bay railroad bridge to Scusset. Usually I am pedaling into a 30 knot headwind trying to get back. The flag on top of the railroad bridge was still!

    I was sitting and resting at Scusset and I found the contrast from the calmness of the Cape to the destructive winds of Florida the day before almost overwhelming.

    1. Beautiful comment, Captain. It is truly impossible to look out at the beautiful weather we have been having and understand the horrific destruction not really very far away.

  15. Thanks TK. All the focus has been on the active tropics, but we’re quietly making pattern changes locally as well. Ironically, it appears we have finally replaced the Great Lakes trough pattern. A switch that models predicted at 10+ days out practically all summer that never really happened until now. The pattern we’re going into could support a prevailing multi-week period of hot weather… except for the fact that it’s mid-September now. So instead, we’re poised for an extended stretch of beautiful late-summer weather, above normal but not “hot” since it’s quite difficult to get real heat this time of year.

    Still watching Jose. Models mostly trending OTS with it, but I don’t give any solution much weight yet. Right now, it looks as though it’s been hit with a frying pan on its north side. Big sister Irma continuing to shred it.

      1. And the CMC had been way out to sea and was one of the farthest east solutions. Still a ways to go before we write off Jose.

  17. Could be some fans who will be filling a little chilly in the northern cities as the 2018 MLB season starts on March 29th with all teams playing that day. Home opener for the Red Sox April 5th against the Rays. Could be a fun last weekend in Fenway to end 2018 with the Yankees and Red Sox playing. Season ends Sunday September 30th.

    2. That is PURE LUNACY!*(@&#*&!@*(#&!*(@&#*(!&@#*&!

      Who makes these facata decisions??????????????????????????

      INSANE!!!

      Imagine playing a game in Minneappolis, Chicago, Cleveland or Boston????
      OUCH!!! I can’t fathom that. I haven’t seen the schedule, I hope they at least
      scheduled the Northern cities to be AWAY! at least until after the 1st week in April.

  18. The earliest starting day ever in MLB History from what I read and also first time ever all MLB teams will play on opening day.

  21. 12z Euro loops Jose around Bermuda. If we weren’t still 7 days out, I’d be writing this off but still time for things to change.

    1. I am blogged at work and it wouldn’t load on my smart phone.
      Twitter said I was rate limited??????

      What does that mean? I have looked at too many twitter posts without
      having an account???????

      1. I guess that says it all.
        The only caveat being that often times the UKMET isn’t
        that bad a model at all. The NWS uses it all of the time OR at least
        they often mention it in their discussions. 😀

  25. People sure are being quick to write off Jose based on one day’s model trends… I think OTS is more likely, but as usual it’s the race to be “first.” No definites yet.

  26. On this account for a few…

    I will not write that storm off until it’s north of this latitude and moving northeast or east.

    I’ve been doing this too long to decide now.

    1. See above.

      When storms mill around, we won’t know what synoptic features will pick then up, or leave them behind, because of the normal model error. Too many people try to make finite decisions based on model data for a time much too far in the future. I’m not doing it. I have a feeling I know what happens, but I am not confident yet.

  31. While Jose meanders in the Atlantic, another major storm is sweeping across the British Isles on its way towards Denmark. The Dutch meteorologists are calling the storm `Sebastian.’ I never knew these Northern Atlantic storms got names. It’s not an exceptionally powerful storm, but it’s the kind I got so accustomed to seeing in the autumn months in Holland (when I lived there; believe me, those dark, dreary September – November days made me miss home). It’s officially a `storm’ when sustained wind is measured at 9 or above on the Beaufort scale. These are severe gales, with gusts easily reaching 70mph. I recall biking to school on stormy days. It was treacherous, but everyone did it. I don’t remember seeing anyone driven to school. And, there are no school buses in Holland. The Dutch are a tough, phlegmatic lot. Never complain. Never rejoice. Always even-tempered, sort of like the flat landscape.

      1. I think as long as it stays east of 75w, it’ll have a hard time coming far enough west for an east coast hit. I bet the 00z euro comes in a little west too though, but not as much as the 18z GFS.
        Last GFS run bringing the ridge in a little stronger, I think, and that’s pulling things west, I could be reading it wrong though. Until models get a handle on that, they’ll wobble. I figure once the loop de loop gets complete and it turns, the track will be more defined. I still think it ends up somewhere between the current GFS and Euro offshore. Probably have some rough surf off the SE coast, cape, and islands.

  36. I’m gonna tell ya right now, I’m not going for this scenario, I’m leaning OTS too, but if the blocking that is setting up ends up much stronger than currently forecast, Jose will make a left hook and come right to the East Coast. So no, we can’t count it out.

    If you are a meteorologist, you account for this possibility until it is completely impossible.

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